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00:00What you just suggested on YouTube is about to happen, and I'd better not happen tonight.
00:04Oh, because I said a six-point game, the spread's six and a half?
00:07I'm not betting this game.
00:09That's like, no.
00:10Nor am I, but the score prediction that I put out there, 125 to 119 Warriors,
00:14is indicative of what the spread is at six and a half.
00:18Yes, it is, but that's too close for me.
00:20Well, then don't watch it.
00:21I'm going to watch it.
00:22Do you think that they're going to win by 38?
00:24I don't think they're going to win by 38.
00:26Can I sit here and tell you that that's too close for comfort,
00:31unless the Warriors are up 125 to 111 with a minute and a half to go,
00:37and then Pat Spencer comes in, and the Grizzlies go on a pointless run
00:41with a three at the buzzer to make it a six-point loss.
00:45That's fine, but I don't.
00:46Gamblers would hate that.
00:48Yeah, they would.
00:49That would suck.
00:49That would be a bad beat.
00:51Scott Van Pelt.
00:51I do not want this to be a clutch game.
00:58I don't want this to be a clutch game.
01:00I don't think that it should be a clutch game.
01:03Well, the majority of the games the Warriors play are clutch games,
01:07come hell or high water, and that's just the way this team, I think, has been built.
01:12And, you know, we don't know officially about Moses Moody.
01:15Hopefully we'll know before the end of the show.
01:17He's questionable with back spasms.
01:19I don't know if that's a warm-up and give-it-a-go kind of an injury.
01:23Yeah.
01:24I mean, we may or may not know before we're out of here.
01:27Yeah.
01:27We'll see.
01:28But I'm glad you brought that up.
01:30Yeah, Moses Moody was not questionable yesterday, and he is today.
01:33So he woke up with something.
01:36And obviously that leads to multiple sort of things that people want to think about
01:42going into this game.
01:43First of all, what would the starting lineup be if Moses Moody can't play?
01:47And clearly does that, and I think automatically it does.
01:50It opens a new door for Jonathan Kaminga.
01:54Whether Kaminga is in the plans tonight or not, I think if Moses Moody is out,
01:59just for sheer bodies and for what he offers defensively on that end,
02:06you would be forced to give Jonathan Kaminga a pretty decent-sized role.
02:10You would think, unless he just went to Gi, if he went straight Gi, if that's the way
02:15that went, and you don't have Moses, and he starts GP2, Steinem threw that out.
02:21I think he's right.
02:21You'd probably start Gary.
02:23Probably.
02:23And then if you go to Gi to get the minutes that Kaminga used to get, and Kaminga gets
02:27a DNP slash Gi, did not play Gi.
02:32Not CD, but Gi.
02:34If that happens, well then, my God.
02:36I don't think that's crazy.
02:37I mean...
02:38Because again, this does come down to what you think is at the core of it.
02:43I know what's popular out in the streets.
02:46It's because Steve hates Jonathan.
02:48All right, fine.
02:49If you want to go there, you can.
02:51But think about what you're saying, and think about what Steve told us last week.
02:55The concern is, Jonathan, when Draymond and Jimmy are both on the floor, and that that
03:02group causes problems, becomes too easy to guard, and so that causes problems, and if
03:08that's the case, I can totally see Steve doing what you just suggested, because I got news
03:14for you.
03:15This is a monster game, and Draymond and Jimmy are going to be on the floor for most of it.
03:18Well, Jimmy might be on the floor for all of it.
03:20Exactly.
03:21He played 48 of 53, and if you look at the quarter-by-quarter breakdowns,
03:25of Jimmy Butler, he sat for 90 seconds one quarter, a minute in the other.
03:30It was like a catch-your-breath, Jimmy, and you're going right back in there kind of a
03:34vibe, and so I would expect Jimmy to be north of, if it's a close game, he's going to be
03:40north of 44 minutes.
03:41Draymond's going to probably play 37, Steph the same, so...
03:44So how many does that even leave, Jonathan, if your goal is, I don't want him on the floor
03:49when both Draymond and Jimmy are?
03:51Well, and you know there's 240 in a game, so if you're looking at, right there, 125 of
03:56the minutes, Pods is going to get at least 30, and then you've got to have GP2 out there
04:01a bunch, and so you're starting to really get a small sliver of the pie for Kaminga anyway.
04:05I have no doubt, but let's go with your numbers, even though we don't know, but let's say Jimmy
04:10did play 44 minutes, right?
04:13And you said Draymond would be what, at about 38?
04:15Somewhere in there, yeah.
04:16Okay, so mathematically, if you've only got four minutes when Jimmy's not on the floor,
04:22and you've only got 12 minutes or so when Draymond's not on the floor, what is, this
04:30is a great word problem, what is the possible number of minutes that Jonathan could play
04:35if you never want him to play when both of them are on the floor?
04:39Well, it would be 12, because, you know, Jimmy's-
04:43It's a pretty small number.
04:43It's very small, and I do think that the problem is bigger than that when you think about other
04:49lineups that you want to have out there.
04:51Kavon Looney's another player that, you know, Kaminga, if it's Kaminga and Jimmy and Kavon,
04:56or Kaminga, Draymond, and Kavon, well, that's a problem because not a lot of spacing, not
05:01a lot of shooting, and I do think Guy falls in that same bucket to an extent that he, you
05:07know, you're not going to put him out there just to be a shooter, although I do look at
05:11this game, and I think, tempo-wise, Memphis is going to push it.
05:15They're one of the best offensive teams in basketball, so I see this one being a little
05:20bit more of an up-tempo, freewheeling kind of ballgame.
05:23I'm trying to think, what was Guy's role when the Warriors played Memphis a couple of weeks
05:30ago, and won by nine?
05:32Yep, 134-125.
05:35Guy had 19 minutes.
05:37Had four points, six rebounds, and an assist.
05:41That was before Kaminga, or that was during the Kaminga bruise.
05:45Yeah, yeah.
05:46He had the tailbone bruise.
05:47Yeah, the pelvic contusion.
05:49Right.
05:50So Guy stepped in and had those minutes, and Quentin Post played 20 minutes and was out there
05:57doing what he does and shooting the three.
05:58No GP2 in that game also, by the way.
06:01Right.
06:01He was hurt also.
06:02So that maybe leads to why Guy was out there.
06:04But I look at that game, and the Warriors took 99 shots.
06:08Memphis took 92.
06:10That is an up-tempo, freewheeling kind of ballgame.
06:13And I think that's going to be the way this goes.
06:15Well, remember, the Warriors scored a 45-point first quarter.
06:18Steph Curry came out absolutely out of his mind and finished the game with 52 points.
06:25Had 12 three-pointers.
06:26That was the game where he was threatening to break the record and didn't do it.
06:31But he took a look at it there at the beginning of the fourth quarter, put up some heat check
06:34shots that didn't go in.
06:36But he had 12 three-pointers in that game.
06:38The Warriors won by nine.
06:39So maybe it's that style.
06:42I tend to think that the gravity of a game like tonight slows things down a little bit.
06:47I just don't foresee, like, count that up, 135 and 125.
06:54You're talking about almost 260 points.
06:57I don't.
06:58I'll take the under on 260.
07:01Yes.
07:02I don't think it's going to be that wide open tonight.
07:06I think the gravity of it will slow it down a little bit.
07:09And unless Steph Curry is just nailing threes again like he was in that one, I think that
07:17you probably run things through Jimmy a lot, especially if he gets into the second half.
07:21Let him get to the free throw line like he did in that game.
07:24He was 12 for 12 from the line.
07:26That'd be my guess.
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07:51Warriors Grizz, play in tonight.
07:54Winner's the seven, and we'll take on Houston in the first round.
07:57The loser's got to wait for Friday, and the winner of the Dallas-Sacramento game.
08:03If you win that game, you get the eight seed, and you're going to play OKC in round one
08:07just 48 hours or less later.
08:09If you lose on Friday, your season's over.
08:12So, the question we're asking, do the Warriors have to win tonight to have a realistic chance
08:18of making legitimate postseason noise?
08:23Yes or no?
08:24You can vote.
08:25The 95.7 The Game poll on Twitter.
08:27We'll share the results with you later in the show.
08:29My answer is yes.
08:30I think it's a pretty easy yes.
08:32You absolutely have to win tonight.
08:34And for me, the idea of making noise would be beating Houston as a seven over a two,
08:39and then you face the Lakers most likely in the next round, and you at least make it
08:43a deep series.
08:44You don't have to necessarily win that series to make noise.
08:48I think that if you end up facing the Lakers in the Western semis, and it goes seven,
08:53and you lose at the Crypt in seven, and it's overtime, and it's a great series,
08:58because that, to me, is making noise.
08:59Well, ask yourself, two years ago, did that qualify as noise?
09:02Yes.
09:03I agree.
09:03I believe so.
09:04And Anthony Slater said this morning that tonight is the most important basketball game
09:10since their last playoff game, which was against the Lakers, Game 6, two years ago.
09:17I'd argue that maybe this one is even bigger than that.
09:21And the reason I say that is because of sort of the feeling and the fallout that happens
09:27if you lose it.
09:27You lost that game to the Lakers.
09:30It was the first time, if you remember, it was the first time that in the playoffs,
09:34a team had beaten a healthy Steph, Clay, and Dre throughout the entire series.
09:40So it was definitely a moment, and it was hard, and it was disappointing,
09:44and all of those things.
09:45But I also felt like it was like, look, they battled, they got to the playoffs,
09:49they beat the Kings, they moved on, they lost to LeBron James in six games.
09:53It's not like you've got to go hide your head in the sand after that.
09:57It's frustrating, and it's hard, but you didn't have to hide your head in the sand.
10:01After where we've been over the last couple of seasons,
10:05and then over the last couple of months after the acquisition of Jimmy and all the talk,
10:09if you lose tonight, and that leads to a whimper of a first-round ouster,
10:15or even worse, a loss on Friday night, I think the fallout is great.
10:20Yeah?
10:21And by great, you don't mean terrific.
10:23I mean, everything is back.
10:24You mean vast.
10:25Yes.
10:26I think everything's back on the table.
10:28I think that they would go back to the drawing board.
10:31Right now, there's a feeling of like, remember how many times has Steve said recently,
10:34we found something.
10:36Jimmy has come, and we found something.
10:39Well, you go back to the lost and found if you lose tonight,
10:43and you are a quick first-round whimper of an ouster.
10:47Or even if you don't make it, to your point.
10:49I think then you look at the offseason and think, what didn't work, and how do we fix it,
10:54and how do we go forward?
10:55You probably do that anyway, but if you do make some noise by winning a series over a two-seed,
11:01and then make it a real tough push against a Laker team, in theory, you wind up losing late in seven,
11:08whatever, that will definitely change the way you go about looking at this,
11:12because you could think, well, if we had Jimmy and Steph and Draymond all year,
11:16maybe we're a three-seed, or a two-seed, because that seemed to work.
11:20And you dug a hole in the middle of the year, you started 12-3,
11:24then you were flat-lined mediocre for about 40 games,
11:27and then you got Jimmy, and you found something.
11:29And unfortunately, you gave a couple away.
11:33The Utah game, the night of the deadline, the San Antonio game the other day,
11:38the back-to-back Atlanta and Miami, without Steph, those were tough,
11:41but you had some giveaways that kept you from being a five-seed,
11:46or maybe being even a four-seed.
11:48So you would look at what worked and think, okay, we can build on that,
11:52but if you lose, and then lose again, and you don't even get a series,
11:56my God, it's not a complete tear-down,
11:58but you've got to take a hard look at what went wrong.
12:01It's a start over with a fresh look.
12:04It doesn't mean that there'll be some massive trade or whatever, but yeah.
12:08And again, it doesn't even matter what we think.
12:11Ask yourself what they think.
12:12You know the way Steph Curry looks at the world,
12:15the way Joe Lacob looks at the world,
12:16the way Draymond Green looks at the world,
12:18the way Steve Kerr, Mike Dunleavy look at the world.
12:21They're not going to be like, well, that was a nice run.
12:23And tonight we could try.
12:26Let's do a try again next year.
12:2838 years old.
12:30Let's try it again.
12:31No, I don't feel that that's how they'd feel.
12:34I think things would get thrown off of the wall if that were to happen.
12:38Well, because by the time you made it back to a potential playoff game next year,
12:43it would have been three years almost since you actually played a playoff game.
12:46Unreal.
12:47Which is, it was two years ago today, you opened up at Sacramento,
12:52the Kings beat you 126-123.
12:55You actually were down 2-0 in that series,
12:57and it took a Steph Curry 50-burger to avoid a first-round ouster.
13:01And a Harrison Barnes bonk.
13:03Yeah, which would have been nice.
13:05Could have used one more.
13:06Oh, dog, jeez.
13:08But I do think the way that that best of seven went led you to losing to the Lakers
13:13because you played two days later.
13:15Agreed.
13:15Even though it was home, L.A. was a lot fresher,
13:18and you ended up losing game one of both of those series.
13:21Yeah.
13:21Was it home?
13:23Yeah.
13:23Yep.
13:24The Warriors were the home team.
13:25Correct.
13:26Yeah.
13:26Yeah.
13:27Yeah, they needed to beat.
13:28Because the Lakers came out of the play-in, I believe.
13:29I think you're right.
13:31I think you're right.
13:31But the Warriors needed to beat the Kings in game six.
13:35I'll never forget it.
13:36You and I.
13:36It was game five, they beat them.
13:38And then they came.
13:39Oh, yeah, that's right.
13:39They needed six.
13:40That's when we sang at the team store.
13:42Stiney sang.
13:43That's so funny.
13:44Phil Collins.
13:44Remember Phil Collins' day?
13:46It was a beautiful day in the city.
13:48I'll never forget it.
13:50We're driving to Chase Center, and Stiney is singing Phil Collins.
13:53Yep.
13:54Feeling in the air tonight.
13:55And you and I are at the team store, and everyone's like,
13:59ah, you adorable little kings.
14:01You did see?
14:02See?
14:03You're under our thumb.
14:04We told you you're under our thumb.
14:06And the Warriors got whacked.
14:09Whacked in their own building, which forced the Steph Curry speech,
14:13the bus ride to Sac, don't get on the bus unless you want to follow me,
14:17the 50 burger, and a win in game seven.
14:20But, yeah, it left their tank empty.
14:23And I think it led to the, it set up the loss to L.A. in the next round.
14:27Sacramento turned it over 20 times and shot 40% from the floor.
14:32They were brutal.
14:32And won by 19.
14:34Oh, you're talking about game six.
14:35And won by 19.
14:36No, the Warriors were awful that night.
14:39Absolutely awful.
14:39I mean, 20 turns and you shoot 40%.
14:41You should lose that game.
14:43And they won by 19.
14:44Is anybody else having the same experience I am today?
14:48Where you're like, I promise you, no matter where you are,
14:52if you got friends and family and coworkers, everyone's asking the same,
14:56how you feeling about the game tonight?
14:58I feel good.
14:59Oh, they'll get it done.
15:00And 90% of me is that way.
15:02And then every, like, 28 minutes, I go, oh, crap.
15:08Yeah.
15:09There's a big lump in my throat.
15:11I don't even want to think about what happens if they lose this game tonight.
15:15I think it's that big.
15:18They cannot lose the basketball game tonight.
15:22And what you're saying, like, what we're pointing, that's scary.
15:26Because you never know when you're just going to have a quack.
15:28Yep.
15:29You're just going to have a duck of a game.
15:30It happens.
15:31That's why you wanted to avoid this stupid box.
15:34Especially when you think about where you are physically, where you've got,
15:38Steph Curry's got a wrap on the thumb.
15:40Jimmy's got a thigh contusion.
15:42Draymond needs to do the vanilla ice every time he gets off the court.
15:47Ice, ice, baby.
15:48Too cold, too cold.
15:49Moses has back spasms.
15:52GP, too.
15:53It seems like he's always got something.
15:55He's got a wrap, right, on his hand?
15:56How would you finish that wrap line?
15:59Ice, ice, baby.
16:00Too cold, too cold.
16:02Ice, ice, baby.
16:04A win would be nice, nice, baby.
16:06Oh, no.
16:07My God, we're old.
16:08That's what I would have gone with.
16:11I know what we're doing.
16:12Fill in the blank.
16:13Boy, win tickets.
16:13I don't know.
16:14I'm sorry.
16:16Sorry.
16:16Thank you for playing.
16:18We've got this wonderful Warriors prize pack and some papers for you to sign in the other room.
16:23And a copy of the home game.
16:25Of course.