Where is the housing market headed amid volatile news on tariffs, mortgage rates, jobs data and more? This lively discussion features three highly respected analysts who will delve into the future of housing!
We’ll cover:
Existing home sales — could they surprise us with an upswing?
Are home prices set to drop, or is there a silver lining?
How are homebuilders navigating the challenges of rising traffic costs?
Could we really be on the brink of a foreclosure crisis?
We’ll cover:
Existing home sales — could they surprise us with an upswing?
Are home prices set to drop, or is there a silver lining?
How are homebuilders navigating the challenges of rising traffic costs?
Could we really be on the brink of a foreclosure crisis?
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00I am Clayton Collins. I'm the CEO at HousingWire, where I have the pleasure of leading one of the
00:13most exciting businesses in the housing market I've ever had the chance to be exposed to. And
00:19one of the reasons this is so exciting, because I have the opportunity to speak with some of the
00:23smartest people in the housing economy, leaders that are building businesses, analyzing markets,
00:30making decisions. And I've been around the financial services and housing industry for
00:36quite a while now. And some of the folks that we're going to introduce to you today,
00:40I've been following since I started my career just before the great financial crisis. And the
00:47perspectives that we're going to bring to the market today will help you inform how you operate
00:53your business, how you advise clients, how you answer questions about what's happening in the
00:59market, the broader financial market, as well as the housing market, which we are so focused on
01:05here at HousingWire. For the folks that are just logging in, please drop a hello in the chat. Tell
01:12us where you're coming in from. We've got a lot of fabulous leaders from across the industry that I
01:16can already see popping in. Ryan Lundquist, Ryan Hills, Andrew Good. Folks, I'm just impressed with
01:23the folks that are giving us their time and energy this morning as we bring you the latest on the
01:29housing market. Once again, I'm Clayton Collins. And today I am honored to welcome three of the
01:35smartest housing experts out there to your stage, to your computer screen to talk about the housing
01:41market. Mr. Logan Modashami, lead analyst at HousingWire, is going to be joining us for this
01:45conversation today, as well as an absolute legend, Ivy Zellman, who I mentioned earlier. We have some
01:52guests today that have been following for quite a while. And Ivy has made some of the biggest,
01:57most important calls in the housing market during her career. She is somebody that every leader
02:01listens to. I'm so happy to welcome Ivy to the stage, as well as Dale Wettlaufer. Dale is also
02:08going to bring some incredible perspectives as an analyst, as well as an investor. We joked before we
02:13came live today about paying our tuition on good and bad decisions, and that may come up in today's
02:20conversation. So for the folks that are just logging in, this is HousingWire. And today we're going to
02:26talk about the housing market, like we do every day of the year with our journalists that publish
02:31content and publish podcasts, and also produce amazing events like this virtual event today,
02:37as well as our big live events like The Gathering, which we host every year. This summer, June 8th through
02:4311th, we're welcoming over a thousand executives to Colorado Springs to have conversations really
02:49similar to this one. We have leaders from some of the biggest mortgage banks, real estate brokerages,
02:54and investors joining us at the Broadmoor in Colorado Springs to talk about the decisions they're
03:00making and how they are running their playbook in this tumultuous and challenging year of 2025.
03:07So if you're not familiar with The Gathering yet, we'll definitely drop a link in the chat and send out
03:12an email to welcome all of you to join us at our in-person event, where we get to have these
03:16conversations on stage, as well as over cocktails and around the really cool fire pits that are
03:22sprinkled all around the Broadmoor in Colorado Springs. So June 8th through 11th, I hope you can
03:28join us in person. But on that, I'm going to pass the mic over to Diego Sanchez. Diego is the president
03:35of HW Media, and he's going to help moderate this conversation today with Ivy, Dale, and Logan.
03:42Diego, the floor is yours. Thanks so much, Clayton. And I am incredibly pumped for today. This is a
03:50really exciting panel that is coming at just a critical time in our economy. So the way that
03:57we're going to structure this is we're going to have each of the panelists do a three to five minute
04:04opening statement. And then we'll follow that with a Q&A session that is going to be moderated by me.
04:13And the way that Q&A session is going to work is I have a bunch of seed questions that I would love to
04:20ask the panelists. But we'd also like to get questions from all of you who have, again, like
04:27Clayton said, you know, taken time out of your busy schedule to join us this morning. So if you have
04:33questions as they come up, please drop them into the chat. We'd love to see them there. Or I think
04:42you can hit the Q&A button at the bottom of your Zoom screen, and I'll be able to check out those
04:48questions there. I won't be able to get to every question, but I'll try to filter and bring out some
04:54themes that I can ask these expert panelists. All right, so let's not delay any further. We're already
05:00five minutes into an hour that will go very, very quickly. Ivy, I'd love to start with you. You were
05:07one of the few analysts that predicted the housing crisis that led to the great financial crisis.
05:13You've been making tough and insightful housing market calls for several decades. You also published
05:19a memoir titled Give Me Shelter in 2021. Love the Stones reference. Maybe you could, you know,
05:27give us an overview of what you're thinking about housing now. Definitely. Well, good morning,
05:34everyone, and thanks for having me, Diego and Clayton. Pleasure to be on. We have been cautious
05:40on housing, generally speaking, predominantly related to the risk that pricing is going to decelerate from
05:47the call it 4% annual pace that we had in 24. It's tough out there. I mean, we already had a very
05:54stretched market in terms of affordability being stretched. New homes have had a little bit less
06:00pressure just because they've been, builders have been predominantly buying down mortgage rates for
06:0430 years for the last two years. That's offset the lack of affordability. They're going to be
06:09challenged to keep doing that in an environment now where their gross margins are no longer at
06:13elevated levels post-pandemic. I think the market is holding up better than I would have expected
06:21right now. It's what's happening with, you know, the administration's initiatives. But let's just
06:26say prior to the last week plus, we had a sluggish spring selling season. And what we were seeing
06:33finally was the benefit from inventories nationally rising, although not much. But if you go into certain
06:39parts of the country, inventories like in the state of Florida and in Texas are up probably roughly
06:4550% relative to where they were pre-COVID. And that's an allowing turnover to reaccelerate. And I
06:52think that's going to continue to be the case, but the levers price. And part of the reason why we think
06:58pricing will be under pressure is that number one, you've got willing sellers, motivated sellers that
07:05need to move on, but they also have choice. And the interesting thing is that where the markets are
07:11probably the most challenged, it's where production builders are most present. And production builders
07:15are motivated. And they're much better positioned in this period than they've ever been from their
07:21balance sheets, their cash flow generation, but they are motivated to move their spec inventory.
07:26And many of them have a strategy that they're basically manufacturers and assembly line, and they
07:32will move that inventory. When it gets to a point, they have, you know, dynamic pricing models where
07:39you'll go green, yellow, red, red, you're going to sell it, you'll discount it, you'll reduce base
07:44price. And because of that, I think there's more volume, but the pricing is going to remain pressured
07:49and incentives will remain elevated. And now it's probably starts will start pulling back. There's
07:55already builders trying to renegotiate land options. And I think land prices will have to reset. Land
08:02sellers have been very aggressive in keeping land prices elevated. So just a lot of
08:08moving parts and the tariff story. I think the builders in general are probably better positioned
08:14than any other part of the ecosystem. Because they don't have pricing power, they're going to push back
08:19on incentives, or I'm sorry, on tariff price increases. And they have scale advantages that
08:24will allow them in the bigger builder situations to do so. But they're still going to have a lot of
08:29pressure as it relates to land that's was bought pre COVID. I'm sorry, post COVID, that's now going to be
08:35hitting the P&L, and the continued incentives to try to drive that volume. But I'm a little bit
08:40more optimistic that the turnover in the existing market will start to see a little bit of share
08:45shift back to existing homes if that inventory remains elevated. But certainly, it won't be
08:49necessarily a good thing if you're the seller, that you have to reduce your price, but it could become
08:53more opportunistic for will of buyers that have been on the sidelines. Hope that helps.
08:59Yeah, that's great. And I can't wait to dig in on that a little bit. But before we do that,
09:05let's go to Dale. Dale is really the catalyst for us having this panel today. Him and Logan
09:13pulled it together after some some chats on Twitter and other social media. Dale is a partner at
09:19Bleecker Street Capital. Dale, take it away. Good morning. If I say anything that's crazy or stupid,
09:27I'm appearing as Dale Wettler for the individual. If I say anything useful and intelligent,
09:31I'm appearing on behalf of Bleecker Street Capital. I first met Ivy 20 plus years ago. I was a young
09:38analyst working under Bill Miller at Lake Mason Capital Management. And he went pretty deep on the
09:44builders. And I'm sitting there like, oh, five times earnings and pre-cashual yield of 20% isn't this
09:50great. And Ivy came into the office first at Credit Suisse First Boston in 2004 or so. And after
09:57a couple of years of hearing her pitch every nine months or so, you know, of course, she's got
10:01superior data and experience. I'm like, huh, well, you know, maybe I shouldn't quite be as bullish.
10:05But when you're a young analyst working under a legend and a huge $75 billion mutual fund, you,
10:12you know, got to ride the wave. But so I went to, so I paid, I paid my tuition or actually like
10:18Mason paid my tuition and home builders 20 years ago. And so we got short two years ago.
10:26Toll was one of the primary things. And I can't talk about our current exposures, but I was looking
10:31at home price appreciation versus COGS. And what a lot of equity generalists don't understand is that
10:37today's COGS for a long lead time builder, such as toll reflect development, dirt and development
10:44costs that existed four years ago. So we've had inflation of all sorts, both on the dirt end and
10:51on the soft cost end. And that's a bad thing. Ivy just gave the rundown on home price appreciation.
10:59That's a that's that's something. And you can't look at national aggregates. You really need a good
11:04firm like Zellman to give you a viewpoint on what's happening in Sarasota, what's happening in
11:10Naples, California, Washington state. And so, you know, they they have the texture on that. And I was
11:18sort of picking up on that. But so right now, you know, we believe that COGS for unit will will go up
11:25and pretty hardly. And that's before deportation, and the tariffs and everything else. We were also
11:32short something called builders first source, which is a big supplier to that sector on the hypothesis
11:39that the big production builders will take their extraordinarily high profit margins at builders
11:45first source and just beat them into the ground. You know, I mean, they are, it's the builders that are
11:50closest to the customer. And then builders first source is one step back, we've already seen a margin
11:55decline there. And, you know, estimates have come down a lot, but we we believe that the ultimate price on
12:02that security is probably lower here. Now, I haven't checked the news in the last 10 minutes. So I'm not sure
12:08what's going on in the world. But as as I understand it, as I look at the rate curve today,
12:13it's shifted negatively. Again, corporate credit is is well under control, but it's in a it's in a
12:19downtrend. Google, Google's credit is actually underperformed Procter and Gamble, Goodyear,
12:25Fire, General Motors, Citigroup, Citigroup's credit is hanging in there. So I would caution or advise
12:32people watching this telecast to look at corporate credit, what's going on in the spreads,
12:37what's going on with the with our yield curve. So I've used a lot of time here, and I'm going to
12:43save some, some elements for later. But thank you for having me on. It's great to be here.
12:48Thank you, Dale. Again, can't wait to dig in on some of that stuff. But first, let's go to Logan.
12:54Logan Motoshami is HousingWire's lead analyst. And from my perspective has really been close to spot on
13:01about housing since his America is back column in April of 2020. Love working with Logan. Him and I
13:09have great debates on our internal slack almost every day. Logan, take it away.
13:15I am very happy so far in 2025 for the existing home sales market, the new home sales market,
13:21I'll touch a little bit later. But if somebody would have told me that rates would have stayed above
13:276.65% for most of the time, and we would have had positive purchase application data year to date,
13:32year over year, our weekly pending contracts are positive year over year, our total pending contracts
13:38are now positive year over year, inventory is up, new listings data is up, price growth is slowing down.
13:45I would have not taken that bet with elevated rates. But we are here. And unfortunately,
13:52rates have flipped on the aggressive side in the last few days. But if everything would have stayed
13:57constant, everyone's forecast would have been wrong for 2025 on sales growth. We were we were
14:03heading in a way and I always like to say this market reminds me of the 1980s. 1980s, we had a
14:08double dip recession, home sales crash, affordability was worse, sales were depressed for many, many years,
14:14then rates fell. And because we are working from such a low bar, and I always say this is the lowest home
14:20sales ever recorded in history, like when you adjust it to the labor force, it doesn't take
14:24much to move the needle. And we were seeing that needle being moved with rates that I didn't think
14:30could do that. So if hypothetical, if mortgage rates could just get down towards 6% and have a
14:37little bit of duration, the sales growth is there, the price growth is cooling down, the inventory is
14:41growing, the unhealthy and the savagely unhealthy housing market I was talking about in 2020, 2021 and
14:47early 2022 is gone. We're getting a more balanced marketplace. And we're working with the equilibrium
14:53of affordability, the 10 year yield mortgage rate spreads. It's a little bit chaotic since
14:58Liberation Day. Eventually, we'll get some kind of clarity there. But what I've saw this year on the
15:04existing home sales, A plus so far, the builders, of course, we went into 2025 saying this was the wild
15:11card for the economy. This was the area that was going to be stressed. Total units completed is up to
15:16around 120,000. If you look at the history of the builders, that's when things fade out.
15:21Their advantage of not going against lower inventory is gone. The south is where they spent so much
15:26money over the years, that place is being hit on affordability. The bigger builders have some profit
15:31margins still above 15% generally for all the publicly traded companies, they can manage this
15:36better, the smaller builders will be stressed rates. If rates go well above 7%, starts go down,
15:43permits go down even later, builders start laying off people. This is why we always focus on this,
15:48because it's tied to the economic cycle. So positive on the existing home sales side,
15:53outperforming from what I was thinking about. But the builder side still looks stressed to me.
15:59And it doesn't help them with rates going up. About 7% of their total costs gets imported. So to
16:06Ivy's point, they can manage it a little bit better than other sectors of the economy. But
16:11it just gets a little bit more interesting when chaos is the big variable now.
16:18Amazing. And thank you to the three of you for actually staying under five minutes. I think that
16:22was like four minutes apiece. Amazing. So let's get right into it. You know, I've already had a
16:28really interesting question come in from the audience. I'm probably going to save that for
16:31question two or three. But if you have questions as we go through this, please drop them in the Q&A or in
16:37the chat. And I'll take a look at them. So first question. It's been nine days since Liberation Day.
16:43The S&P 500 is down 8%, while the 10-year Treasury yield is up over 9%, I think, as of 10 minutes ago.
16:53What's happening? What's going on? I'll start with Ivy.
16:56Well, I think the concern, you know, we have right now is the fact that rates are backing up as much as
17:02they are. And Scott Bessette, you know, Treasurer has made it clear that part of the initiatives is to
17:07get the long end of the curve down. And whether that's the Chinese selling Treasuries or other
17:12foreign owners selling whatever is causing the backup in rates, it's certainly a concern that that
17:19might continue. With that said, I think that we're looking at so much uncertainty. So when we talk about
17:26the existing home sale turnover, we were optimistic as we started to see those pendings and overall
17:32purchase apps continuing to move higher. But I think that we are really shaking up the consumer.
17:37We're going to see a lot of people step into the sidelines. We do a real estate broker survey,
17:42along with a new home builder survey. And all of our gathering now is sort of day to day. We're
17:47calling and talking to people in our month. And what we're hearing is that there's a lot of concern about
17:52people just stepping to the side, and or very motivated sellers reducing price pretty substantially.
17:58So I think we're going to see confidence, which really trumps rates. If you look at the order of
18:02importance, you know, consumer doesn't feel good, they're going to probably pause. If their job is
18:07at risk, they're certainly not going to be buying a house. And with rates at nearly seven, if they can
18:12afford it, and they're feeling good about their personal situation, you could still see overall
18:16transactions happening. But I think that we're taking a chunk of confidence away from the consumer.
18:21And we're going to see people pause. And that's going to not be a positive for housing.
18:26Logan, does that dropping consumer confidence and investor confidence
18:30impact the bullishness that you've had about the spring housing market?
18:35Well, first, regarding the 10-year yield, I never thought the 10-year yield should have dropped
18:39as low as it did with the labor data. But when you have an entire marketplace, a global marketplace,
18:47not ready for Godzilla tariffs, and you get that major selling, and eventually we're going to hear
18:53the name of the firm that just went under and had to liquidate their holdings, the short term is very
18:58chaotic. So the question is, when we go out for the next one week or one month, is this going to
19:05continue? Or do we just snap a few fingers, make a few deals, and then things get back to play?
19:10So that is all not in any of our control. That's the administration. So we'll wait to see that. But
19:18so far, even with the trade war, even with consumer confidence, the Michigan index has been terrible
19:25for some time. The purchase application data has still outperformed my expectations. So until I see
19:32that fade, now, whenever you get a rate of change on the 10-year yield and rates, the growth that you've
19:37seen the previous week tends to come down. But this is a very fast-moving thing. You know, one day this
19:43is happening, the other day is that. We're going to have to look at every single thing that's being
19:47announced on a day-to-day basis and correlate it to the economic data, especially with weekly
19:51contracts, purchase apps, and what sales is. And remember, with our data, we're about two, three months
19:58ahead of the existing home sales market. So as of now, everything was good up until the last few days,
20:03and we'll see what the rate impact is going out in the future. Traditionally, when we have that
20:09reversal, it does impact the purchase application data. And the rest of the year will be very
20:14interesting in that dynamic between what the White House wants, what the SET wants, what the 10-year
20:19yield is doing, and what options do they have? Because the Federal Reserve presidents in the last 48
20:24hours said, don't look at us. We don't want to get a part of this. We still think this is somewhat
20:30orderly, and we don't want to intervene if this is how the marketplace is acting until we see
20:36real big collateral damage. Dale, do you think homebuyers?
20:41Sorry, I was just going to add to your comment, Logan. You know, recognizing, you know, you're
20:45looking at the last few weeks of data to make you feel a little bit more optimistic versus what you
20:49might have expected. But if you start to look at the market's pressure, you know, the wealth
20:54destruction and what that means for consumers, I think we can look beyond. And even if the turmoil
20:59subsides a bit, unless the market comes roaring back, I think we've taken a bite out of, you know,
21:05a lot of people's net worth, and it's going to keep them on the sidelines. So I would say your
21:10purchase apps could probably start to flatten out and even go negative in the environment over the
21:15next few weeks, unless we get a massive rally, or we start to see stabilization with China's trade war.
21:22I think we're in for some very tough sailing right now. Question is, you know, if you like to see
21:27volume, great, but it's going to be at the expense of price. And I don't know that we've ever seen a
21:32housing market really do well when pricing is under pressure.
21:36Dale, I'd love to get your thoughts here. You know, I think we'll see mortgage rates head well
21:40into the sevens today and tomorrow if the 10-year yields where it's at and it stays there. Do you
21:48think homebuyers are going to kind of watch, try to catch the falling knife, or are they going to
21:53step to the sidelines here? Oh, well, I can't answer that directly, but I'll talk about a couple
22:01of things that I would put into my thinking if I'm thinking about that problem. Number one,
22:05the intergenerational transfer of wealth from boomers to the next generation and from Gen X to
22:11the next generation, that's a significant element of demand in the existing home and new home market
22:19last five years. So if mom and dad or the grandparents' wealth is being destroyed in
22:24the market, you know, that's a negative headwind. Today, I just saw the University of Michigan
22:29inflation expectations for the household sector is like six and a half percent. What we have here is
22:3640 years of U.S. share of GDP has been stagnant at about 25 percent. It looks like a sine wave.
22:44And for 45 years, the household sector has lost share of net national income in the U.S.,
22:49and that's been taken by by corporations. Labor, the household cannot absorb an inflationary shock
22:56here. So that's why I'm sort of bearish on the middle of income statements. It just it can't it
23:01can't happen. You know, it's corporate corporations have to have to absorb it. So, you know, unit labor
23:07costs, if that's the inflation expectation and that comes out to be true, imagine your Home Depot
23:13or Builders First Source, your gross profit line is going down, but your SG&A per store is going up.
23:19And this isn't even building in the elasticity of demand. So you can get some about you can get
23:25some income statements that are really twisted up here. So I'm bearish, but look, that could change
23:31tomorrow. It could change 10 minutes from now.
23:33So a really good question that I think came came through a couple of minutes ago in the chat.
23:41And the question was simple. Don't we think that the long term trend for rates is still
23:47for them to go down? And I'll start with Logan.
23:51I basically ran through my entire channel on the 10 year yield so far this year. So where the 10 year
23:57yield is actually trading now, where rates are, looks right to me, considering the economic data,
24:04if the labor data starts to break, then I would expect the 10 year yield to go lower. So I'm
24:10at 450, 430 to 470. That looks right to me. If the 10 year yield starts to break well above 480,
24:19where the Fed funds rate is there, there's where we have a problem. But to me, it's labor over
24:25inflation. As long as the labor market sticks, you know, the 10 year yield going down has limits
24:31or mortgage rates have limits. The spreads getting better has been a positive story in 2024 and 2025.
24:37However, whenever you have market stress like this, you know, in the past, when the 10 year
24:41yield would rise, the spreads would keep the damage at bay. We are dealing with chaos right now and
24:46spreads do not act well in chaos, similar to what happened in the mid 1980s right now. So what the
24:53advantage we had on that is going away until you get some resolution and mother bond market rules
25:00everyone. So the longer this, you know, trade war tap dance goes in this kind of format, the more
25:06chaotic things will be. But if you could get some clarity, then at least we have something legitimate
25:12to work with. But where the 10 year yield is between 430 to 470 with what the labor data showing,
25:17that's that's fine to me if getting down below 4% was market driven, not so much economically driven at
25:25this stage. Yeah, what do you think? Long term, long term trends going down for long, long, long term
25:35interest rates? Or are you think we're heading upwards from here? Directed to me? Yeah. Okay. So
25:43look, if the University of Michigan sentiment indicator is correct, the 10 year going to get
25:49destroyed. And, you know, to the extent that the market incorporates that as cyclical or secular,
25:55I don't know. But I will say when you look at long term trend of interest rates, we were in a
26:01disinflationary trend and decreasing trend from 1982 forward, you know, and these things move in
26:09long cycles. And it's tough to catch the turn and make a bet. But if you want to look at it on a
26:13technical basis, you want to look at it on a socioeconomic, you know, multi factor GDP basis,
26:20I think, you know, rates are in a secular uptrend from here. And it's and it's like the mid 60s,
26:27you know, everything was great for a long, long time. And the Fed was very lax. And eventually,
26:31these things turn into bedrock forces in the economy that are very tough to see in the moment.
26:37But like, you know, the market, the equity market from 1968 to 1982 was horrendous. The bond market
26:44was horrendous. I'm not one of those perma bear, super bears, whatever, like I like to be net long.
26:50But there's ample opportunity right now to be tactically short things within a net long structure.
26:57And so I'm just bearish on rates, especially, again, if the things that exist in this moment
27:04don't change, that's bearish. And we're talking like pretty bearish, ultra bearish.
27:09Ivy, we'll end with you on this question, bullish or bearish on mortgage rates?
27:15You know, I think that right now, rates are likely to head lower if we start to see
27:21the Fed incrementally back in the market to buy treasuries, which is obviously a little QE here.
27:28If that came to fruition, they have a lot of tools, that being one of them banks,
27:32if regulations allow it will start being able to hold more treasuries, which will be positive long
27:37for the long end of the curve for rates. The wild card is what the foreign buyers owners are going to
27:42do. And that to me is where I completely have no idea. I do think that if the economy slows,
27:48rates will go lower. And I think that's part of maybe what the administration wanted to do is
27:52kind of slow us down and even arguably risk putting us in a recession to bring the long end of the
27:57curve back down because we've got 9.2 trillion of debt that needs to be refinanced this year.
28:02And I think that we're struggling to understand why the long end of the curve right now, why with 10
28:08years moving back up. But I do think it has a lot to do with the market dynamics and maybe some
28:12foreign sellers. So it's tough to tough to say. Dale, you said something in our prep prep session
28:20that stuck out to me. You mentioned that you've been short home builders for the past two years.
28:26Tell us more about that. Oh, I can't remember what I said in the preview. Basically, I was looking at,
28:33you know, the ratio of median home price to median household income. And back, you know, when I
28:39first started covering the sector, it was like 2.5 turns. And we always thought, why is Australia,
28:45why can Australia sustain? Why can Canada, why can the UK sustain much higher ratios? And look,
28:51that was the bull case. It's like, well, if they can do it elsewhere, why can't it happen here? No,
28:56it wasn't the best bull case. But we've now rejoined, you know, we've joined those countries at five
29:02times or more. So housing affordability is super stressed. And the thing that balances it is,
29:08you know, grandma and grandpas and the parents balance sheets. But you kick that leg out from
29:13another stool, that that's a problem. But it was also based on we just saw the whole COGS thing,
29:20COGS per unit. Equity generalists don't really understand and even industrial sectors generalists
29:26don't understand home builders because they move to their own rhythm. And you've got to understand the
29:30gross margin line, the COGS line, you've got to be able to think about what was happening four
29:36years ago, what were the acquisition prices for services, entitlement services, legal, all that
29:42stuff and dirt. Those prices from 2021 are just hitting polls, balance income statement now. And
29:49it's all on the balance sheet, you can see it. So the 2022 and 2023 and 2024 prices on a COGS per unit,
29:57I think are going up. And I don't think the market at large or the sector specialists at large in
30:05industrial, I don't think they understand the income statements. So I think estimates are going
30:09lower. And back 20 years ago, these things tried to trade five times earnings. So like I'm looking at
30:14NVR, I live 50 miles east of DC across the Chesapeake Bay. And I like to short quality companies. And that's
30:21the quality company. But it's trading at this fancy 13 times. What's going on in Washington is horrible.
30:29I mean, from a macro perspective, for a regional perspective, it's horrible. So you could short,
30:35I mean, the hypothesis on NVR is, okay, estimates are too high. And this thing squeezes down to like
30:43seven times earnings. That's 50% decline in the stock. I'm not hating on NVR. Like the one of the
30:50worst things you can do as a short seller is short only terrible companies. It's a diversification
30:56factor within a portfolio to have a quality company. Because like, look at Costco today,
31:0150 times earnings. That thing could decline to 25 times earnings. That's a 50% decline in the stock.
31:08And I know I would turn around and buy the thing. I would go along with things. So it's not a hate
31:12on Costco or NVR. It's just, these are mispriced securities.
31:15Ivy, I want to dig in a little bit here, but zoom out to kind of homebuyers broadly,
31:22homebuilders broadly. Really, homebuilders have been one of the few bright spots in a pretty dismal
31:27housing market over the past couple of years. Do you think that bright spot continues in this next
31:32year? I think it's shifting from what had been an opportunity to gain share with, I think,
31:38maybe Dale said it, but the lack of inventory in the existing market, and really nowhere else to go
31:43with the new home market where they are present. I think that given their probably concern about the
31:49broader economic outlook, they'll pull back on starts, pull back on specs. We're already seeing
31:54that. So I think that their volume side will probably lag what it's been, you know, seeing in
32:00the past several years, we'll say during that period where they were gaining shares. So it's going to
32:04shift back to the existing home market a little bit. But again, at the expense of price and the lack
32:09of affordability, they've done a great job. They were very, very quick and prudent to buy mortgage
32:15rates down. And if you're not familiar with that, I'm sure everyone that's a mortgage executive knows
32:20very well. It was a pretty big shift for them and became the majority of the builder's offering to not
32:26only buy your rate down for, you know, three years, but 30 years. So that's allowed for more
32:31affordability. But as I said in my opening comments, I think that gross margins are now sub 20%
32:37for many builders. And there's not enough cushion for them to continue to do those very expensive
32:42buy downs. So I think they're going to have a difficulty sustaining the volume that they've
32:46enjoyed shifting the market share back to the existing where inventory is rising. And I think
32:51it's going to be tough slaying for them. But I don't think they're going to be at risk of the type of
32:57risk they had during the GFC, where they owned a tremendous amount of land. They've really pushed
33:02that risk to land bankers for the majority of them, where they're currently now trying to
33:06renegotiate contracts or just walk away from escrow money. So I think they're a much better
33:11position. And we're not going to have the type of housing led recession, at least from my perspective,
33:15this will not be a housing led recession, probably if we have one more similar to the tech rec,
33:20when actually housing did well. And that would also be because rates were coming down and the Fed
33:24was trying to help the economy. So I love this audience question. And I think it'll be a really
33:31interesting discussion on this panel, because I think there are different points of view here.
33:37The common narrative is that we have been under supplied housing really since the great financial
33:42crisis. And so are we? Logan, do you think we're under supplied housing?
33:49I actually was never a low inventory person up until 2020. So if you want to make it simple,
33:56if you take the NAR data going back to the early 1980s, normal inventory is between two to two and
34:01a half million. What's changed in this last 14 years, when qualified mortgage was put into place
34:08in 2010, and everybody is a standard, you know, can own the capacity to own the debt. We had a very
34:13interesting model for the last 14 years, which didn't work in the 80s, 90s, or 2000, where back then
34:18inventory would rise with sales. But if 70 to 80% of home sellers are buyers, and then you have the
34:24millennials who started buying in 2013, if mortgage demand grows, that could slowly withdraw inventory
34:30because they're taking that 20 to 30% off, right? That's what we saw. But we never had home sales
34:36escalate out of control or prices escalate out of control. So if we just get back to 2019 inventory
34:44levels, I will never say the word low inventory ever. It's just that we got into a place to where
34:49there's too many people chasing too few homes. If you do with supply and demand equilibrium with housing
34:54economics for 40 years, housing broke out right before COVID hit us, but inventory broke the
35:00all-time lows. So that's not going to work. But now, why I love 2024 and 2025 is inventory is growing.
35:09If we can get inventory to sales grow together, that's like the chef kiss. That's the 1980s,
35:14that's the 1990s. I would X out the 2000 period because that was a credit boom and bust that couldn't
35:20be sustained. But that would be a more healthier market because the housing market is going to be
35:24here for a very, very long time, right? The equilibrium had to get balance up. So if I get
35:28back to 2019 levels, all my low inventory theory goes out the door because that's what the data has
35:35shown us for the last 40 years. I think though, Logan, what at least I think Diego was asking is if we
35:42have a housing shortage in terms of needing new construction, because obviously your stock is there
35:47already. And if you look at the rhetoric from Freddie, from NAR, any, you know, major institution
35:54providing sources, we've heard three to 5 million, there's a shortage. And I personally think that it's
36:01just a sort of BS, the whole thing, to be honest with you, because we have a shortage of affordable
36:09homes and we can't get new construction to meet that demand. So if you had, you know, our kids today,
36:16I have 20, 22 and 24 year olds, and they're fortunate they have a fluent mother, but they
36:22have a lot of friends that are graduating from college that can't afford to even rent an apartment
36:26by themselves, as we all know. And so when you think about it, so you can talk about as much as
36:30you want, how many units might be short, but if you can't offer, whether it be a rental unit at less
36:36than $1,000 a month or the mortgage payment at $1,000 a month, who really cares? It doesn't matter
36:41because we can't provide whatever's needed. Now, the young adults, let's say the 18 to 39 year olds
36:47that live with their parents or with family relatives has been on an upward trend really
36:52going back to the 90s when, you know, when I was growing up, 18, you're out, there wasn't any
36:57discussion, you're out. And fast forward, here we have, that was about 15% of young adults were
37:02living with their parents that had been sort of the trend line. Today, we're at 21%. So if we said,
37:08okay, everybody's going to decouple, they're going to leave mom and dads. And I say, it's not just
37:11because they can't afford it, but we've made it too comfortable for them. We're all helicopter
37:15parents, we want them to have it better than we did. And so we really are always subsidizing and
37:19helping them in every way. And to your point, Dale, we're also buying them houses, cash purchases up,
37:25people have very wealthy family members or many that are fortunate to have that. But when you back up and
37:29you say, okay, are we really going to see that decoupling? And it's not just a coupling from parents,
37:34it's also decoupling from roommates. So if we don't have the decoupling, then we don't have a
37:39shortage. So they're kind of, it's a circular argument. And you know, you've heard about 3D
37:43printed homes, I couldn't believe it. In Austin, Texas, ICON is doing 3D printed homes. And they
37:50start with a forehandle, they look like a box, they look awful, and people are buying them. I just can't
37:55believe it. That's not affordable housing. That's not going to solve the shortage issue. So anyway,
37:59I'm on my side now. You know, Ivy, I want to stick there for a moment, though. I think this is a
38:04really good thing to talk about. And I love the way you distinct, you know, have that distinction
38:08between affordable housing and housing in general. Really, there's a triple whammy on affordability
38:14right now, with high mortgage rates, high home prices, and rising insurance costs. And in some
38:21states, there's rising property taxes as well. Is the first time homebuyer just out of luck?
38:29Or are there solutions that you see out there for this, you know, kind of affordability crisis?
38:34You know, I love that question, just because I get the question a lot, if you're sitting in the
38:37Oval Office, what would you do? What do you think administration should do? And I think it's just
38:42listening to, you know, President Trump or, you know, Kamala Harris talk about housing was comical.
38:48Anyone that was listening to their proposals that could help affordable housing, none of that's
38:52going to work. Federal land owned is not going to work. No one wants to live out there, even the cows
38:55don't want to live where a lot of that land is positioned in rural America. But I do think that
39:00one of the things you're looking at today, which could be a stick for the administration to utilize,
39:05is take funding away from states that won't mitigate the regulatory impediments. Because when we look at
39:12why housing is so stuck, it's at the local level, whether nimbyism, you name it, it starts at the local
39:18level, with municipalities that are holding up entitlements, the cost for a developer, they have
39:25to absorb, which we call impact fees, in some parts of the country could represent as much as 15% of the
39:31average selling price. So they're already in the hole, well before they even break ground. So whether
39:36it's a big stick, takeaway funding, threatening funding, I think is a good thing. They're doing it
39:40at universities right now, elite universities are feeling the pain. And they're going to have to do
39:44something that gets that local market to adhere to less stringent regulatory impediments. And that's
39:50a good start. And maybe sharing in that, the allocation of those impact fees that the builder
39:55has to absorb, whether it be police, fire, schools, I think it's, it's, it's, it's an impediment for
40:01affordable housing. Logan, let's get you in on a, on affordability crisis. I actually don't even
40:07believe in the concept of affordable housing. Like, like, what does it look like? Like, when was
40:12housing ever affordable? Like we go back to the 1940s, we had major inflation in the 40s, prices
40:17took off. 1970s, home prices took off with inflation. Global pandemic, prices took off with
40:23inflation. The only time that that didn't happen, the housing bubble years, inflation didn't take
40:28off, prices went off because it was a credit boom, credit bust. Millions of people buy homes every year.
40:34We have near, near 5 million total home sales the last two years. The only housing affordability,
40:40like, uh, thing that could get fixed is you build smaller and you get people to, to reduce their,
40:48uh, uh, the size of the home they want. That's it. Unless you drive rates down.
40:54That's already happening. Yeah. It's not, it's not, we cannot build affordable housing. San Antonio's
41:00trying those little tiny houses, not, you know, suitable for families. So it, this is a problem
41:07that's not going to be fixed. The only way it solves itself is dual household incomes come in
41:12and they buy homes. And that's kind of how the housing cycle has really worked for the last four
41:17decades. People rent, but they make, they date, they get married three and a half years after
41:21marriage, they have kids. Millennials still have been the biggest home buyers until rates go up.
41:25But unless you're building small, which the builders aren't going to do really in a scale terms,
41:30we are stuck with the market here. So there's limits to what Logan, only because when you go
41:37back to the great financial crisis and coming out in 09, we had record affordability in 09 and we
41:43still didn't have a housing market that was, you know, working. And that was because of lack of
41:47confidence. The pricing of homes was still under pressure and we also had massive job losses. So I
41:53think even with record affordability, we didn't have people willingly buying homes. Now, if we had a
41:59strong economy like we did prior to now, when people were less concerned about the outlook,
42:04people are still buying their lives, like you said, that whether they're forming families,
42:09getting married, et cetera, I think affordability is important, but it's not the most important
42:14variable for buyers. And by the way, home builders have reduced square footage from 2018. We were kind
42:20of in that 2200 plus 2400. We're down to 1800s right now. And just so you know, builders can want to
42:28build even smaller, but a lot of municipalities will say, you can't go below 1600 square feet.
42:34So that's another guardrail that communities put in place to mitigate the ability to buy affordable
42:40or build affordable housing, which is tough. So two experiments that I'm keeping an eye on,
42:47ADUs in California, I think are interesting. Abolishment of single family zoning in Minneapolis
42:55could also help solve the problems in some parts of the country. So we're going to, we're going to
43:01move on. Amazing discussion about this, but there's some more audience questions that have come in that
43:06I think are really, really interesting. So someone asked, how is Rocket buying Redfin and Mr. Cooper
43:15going to impact the housing market, the purchase and the refinance market? Dale, I don't know if this
43:22is an area that you've been looking at. I'd love to start with you on this. If you have a perspective
43:26here. I'm going to move along quickly and say pass.
43:32Oh, no.
43:33Ivy, you want to jump in on this one?
43:36I don't know if I can. I don't know that compliance would like me for talking about
43:40any specific names.
43:42That makes sense. Logan, let's, let's, let's end with you on this one.
43:45Listen, if you believe you're at the bottom of the sales curve and you're willing to buy assets in a
43:55deep discount to the economic cycle, the real players set themselves for a better time. So
44:03what Rocket did is basically try to make itself a better mousetrap or one-stop shop for everyone.
44:10And listen, this is, this is how economic cycles work. The people with the bigger balance sheets
44:16buy the weaker ones, conform them into something and they run with the next cycle. So it's not
44:23coincidence that they did this right now. If we don't break under 4 million existing home sales and
44:30rates go lower and sales grow, they've got a little bit better of a mousetrap out there. So we've seen
44:36this in other sectors of the economy going back a hundred years. So, uh, uh, it's timing on their
44:42part. So that, that's, that's the, that's the one thing that I see that that whole thing made sense
44:47to me. Get in early, make yourself a bigger mousetrap, get everybody into one place, get the
44:52data, get the mortgage, get everything, and then move forward with the next cycle. Cause what the last
44:57two years have shown us, even with six to 8% mortgage rates, even with the property taxes, insurance,
45:01elevated home prices, existing home sales don't really break down under 4 million. Uh, and, uh,
45:08if you get lower, for example, hypothetical, let's just say mortgage rates, there's no trade
45:12war. Mortgage rates head down to 6%. We'd have an additional 375 to 485,000 home sales more today.
45:19They would be a little bit better suited for that going out in the future. That's, that's,
45:24that's the one and only thing I think about with those transactions.
45:27Ivy, I'm going to reframe and try again, try again with this one. Um, so there are probably
45:35four or five, maybe a half dozen, uh, companies out there that are looking at housing, um, and
45:43seeing a very fragmented ecosystem and a very difficult, still difficult transaction and trying
45:49to build more of an end-to-end process. Uh, do you think that's the right move for housing?
45:55Um, it makes a lot of sense from a profitability perspective, because look how thin the margins
46:00are for real estate brokers. And for those brokers that are large enough that have title and have
46:05mortgage, that's really where they make all their money. So when you think about a mortgage entity
46:09today and having to be able to capture all elements of the transaction, I think it makes
46:13tremendous sense. And, you know, companies that have strong balance sheets and are sitting with
46:18tons of cash are also the ones that are investing in technology and AI is going to become a much bigger
46:22part of our world. And I think that they're just a hell of a lot ahead of the curve relative to
46:28everyone else. And that's all I'll say, but we're, we're fans of Rocket. And I think what they're doing
46:32is definitely what Logan said. They're setting up for the next up cycle. And I think that those trends
46:40are when they do come to fruition, they'll be a big winner.
46:42So, um, there's been some challenges in, uh, uh, uh, commercial real estate, um, uh, you know,
46:53coming, coming in COVID and coming out of COVID. Um, one of the solutions out there that people have
46:59been writing a lot about, but I I've yet to see, you know, significant progress on is, you know,
47:04taking some of those, uh, office buildings and malls, um, and turning them into housing supply.
47:12Um, and I I'd love to get the perspective from this panel, uh, on that conversion process and
47:18whether that's something that could help with, uh, with affordable housing. Ivy, I'll start with
47:22you. It's pretty negligible. I think the number in 24 was 50,000 units. Um, and a lot of that was
47:30in New York city. I don't necessarily think that that's a solution. It's not easy to, um, convert
47:37office to multifamily or, and or condo just the way that they're built. But I think it's a significant
47:44cost that many developers aren't willing to do without, um, maybe some local subsidization from
47:49government, which I know in Boston and other cities that has come to fruition. So it's really
47:54about whether the local markets will support that initiative. And I don't see it making a big
47:59dent in affordable housing at all. Daily, if you have any thoughts there.
48:06Yeah. Well, the cost per square foot to convert, uh, a 50 year old office building is just horrendous.
48:12And, and, you know, do you really want to live in a CB, uh, central business district block where,
48:17you know, it's just like after 5 PM, it's just a ghost town and it's can be unpleasant. I mean,
48:24I hate to say that, but that is true. Like what I want to live, uh, you know, in the old Lake Mason
48:30building at the corner of light street and, and, uh, Lombard. Not really. It's very unpleasant.
48:37I'm sorry to say, but, uh, so no, there's no units as negligible as I said, and there's no ROI in it.
48:43You know, the problem with the new affordable housing, isn't we're going to push mortgage rates
48:47or we're going to do this to that. And the other, it's just, it costs a certain amount per square foot.
48:51And, um, you know, Americans are going to have to change the way they live, which if I could
48:56snowball into one of the points that I'd like to make on a secular basis, because that's how I
49:02underwrite companies. When you look at people living in a household in 1940, that was 3.5 people
49:08per household today. That is, uh, 2.3 people. So when you think about, you know, that reduction and
49:17how many more, so people per household, well, you need more homes per person. What if it flips
49:23the other way? And what if we live like the rest of the world where you have multiple generations
49:28in a household, you have multiple incomes in a household and the housing stock ages, you start
49:33to turn those two dials and 1 million housing starts will look like a bonanza year. I mean,
49:39you could be talking about, uh, 500,000 housing starts. So we, we got to start thinking about that.
49:45Like 50 years ago, 75 years ago was a historical accident in the American century. Our industrialized
49:51competitors lay in ruins after a disastrous war and the U S produced 50% of global GDP.
49:58That's 25% today. Is that going higher? That's going lower. That's why we have all these problems
50:04with the rest of the world. And that's why it's manifesting itself and division and whatnot. But
50:10basically this world, the United States is going to have to start living like the rest of the world.
50:14And we're seeing it as, as Ivy said, more people per household, multi-generations per household,
50:19multiple incomes per household, the whole idea that a detached dwelling with a nuclear family and one
50:26income, and that everybody from Bernie Sanders over here to everybody over the right grasped as the
50:31normal, that's not the norm. That's gone. And, you know, from a secular basis, I'm just, I'm just
50:38bearish. I hate to be the hater, but like, I'm looking at, you know, you've got to look forward
50:42in this. You can't look at 1940 to 2005 GDP regressed against housing starts. You got to,
50:51you got to take the historical context there. So that's why I'm bearish on that.
50:56I'm going to stick with you, you for a moment. So ADUs, maybe single abolishment of single family
51:05zoning, maybe, but that's, that's a lot, that's very local issue and will need to happen in localities
51:11across the country. Office to residential, probably not at scale. What, what needs to happen? Do we,
51:20does the government need to subsidize the development of $300K, $300,000 single, you know,
51:27single family houses of affordable housing, subsidize the builders to build those kinds of
51:33units? What do you think needs to happen to like solve this problem?
51:37No, a true free market person would say, let the market sort it out. And what the market needs to
51:41sort out is that you need more people per household, more incomes per household. I live in a very agricultural
51:47area with a very high Hispanic population. That population has many more people per household,
51:54many more incomes per household. Their civic, civic engagement is very high relative to native born
52:00Americans of all, of all different ethnic backgrounds. Their investment per household,
52:06you know, you get, let's say 10 people here in a family in a 1500 square foot household,
52:10they're buying arable land and they are buying tractors and they are doing the American dream.
52:16They come out for Halloween, the Christmas parade, like the whole idea that we're going to hurt that
52:21portion of the population, which by the way, immigration accounts for 60% of population growth
52:27over the last 100 years. That's the, that's the biggest portion population growth and productivity
52:33in GDP growth. So we're going to kick the legs from out from under that stool. Like lots of stuff
52:38is going to go wrong. And I'm, we're not even going there on the builders because that could really
52:41screw the builders, but no, it's not government subsidizes. It's people have to recognize what
52:49the economic reality is and change their lifestyles. And that's just unpleasant. And that's why the
52:55world is kind of unpleasant in some ways right now in the United States.
52:59Avi, I'd love to get your, your thoughts on that. How do we, how do we get the builders to make more
53:04affordable homes?
53:05Well, I think there's so many impediments. I don't know how they will be able to do it. As I said,
53:10I made a suggestion of two things that they can do, the government that is to reiterate those,
53:16but we, we have a real problem, but you know, with today's consumer that is better positioned,
53:22whether they're confident in their employment and income, we've already had dual incomes. I mean,
53:28that's, that's called a two thirds of purchases have dual income. I think even dual incomes to buy
53:34the median priced home today with, with the, today, I think the median income, the household
53:39income is the two, two, two income is 82,000, I think. And that can't afford, you can't afford to buy
53:48a median existing home price today's median with even two income. So like what they all say, you might need
53:53a third income or a fourth income. So I don't think the builders have the ability today where
53:59land prices are to build anything more affordable than they're currently doing. And, you know, home
54:05prices pre COVID for the public builders were in the high twos or low threes. We're now on the fours.
54:13So we did have a surge and I think we're going to see a reset and then we'll have a better affordable
54:18offering. And then we'll have a pickup in market share for the home builders if they're able to do so.
54:23But I think it's going to be a little pain before we get there.
54:27So there's a question that just came in around multifamily versus single families. Dale, do you
54:35think that the next couple of years could, could, could be a good time to be long multifamily while
54:41you're short, you know, kind of single family home builders?
54:44Well, no, I mean, multifamily has had a very tough time of it. And when you look at insurance costs,
54:50both, you know, on the West Coast and in Florida, in the Gulf of America states, you've got a you've
54:56got a problem there. As Ivy has said, you know, it's there's a big NIMBY problem like Robert Rice
55:01will go on Twitter and say, you know, power to the people. But does he want a 10 story apartment
55:06building next door to him and swanky Pasadena or wherever he lives? No. I mean, so, you know,
55:13I think the solution to multifamily is a very well designed 400 to 650 square foot, you know,
55:21housing unit for two roommates or a small family. It's just there's no way to there's no way to
55:28square it. I mean, and what do we want to do? Do we want to we've been we've been stimulating the
55:32housing market since 1932 nonstop. Where does it where does it end? You know, it's the thing that
55:39squares. The equation is people have to change the way they live.
55:45All right. Well, this has this has been really an incredible conversation.
55:51The chat has been completely on fire, which which which I love to see. So we'll end with maybe just
56:02a rapid fire response to, you know, how many how many homes do you think are going to change hands
56:12over the rest of of 2020? What do you think the the final number of home sales is going to be for
56:18for 2025? Logan, I'll start with you. And this is existing plus plus plus new new construction.
56:26If everything goes as is, I'm going to be wrong with 4.2 million existing home sales. It could be higher.
56:31especially if rates go down, if rates go up, it'll be more problematic. But we're looking at near
56:365 million total home sales, which would be the same frame for the last two years. Just remember,
56:42in 2010 to 2019, the peak during that period combined was near 6 million. So you're missing
56:48roughly a million mortgage buyers from the constant buyer trend. So you the builders have been able to do
56:56better because they buy down rates. We don't have monetary policy to get sub 6% rates yet. If you had
57:01sub 6% rates with duration, you could get more home sales. But for this year, it to me, it's still
57:09always has been will be about the 10 year yield.
57:13Dale?
57:13No, there's a problem in the way that data is constructed. When you look at multifamily sales
57:20versus multifamily starts, multifamily is built for rent and not just, you know, condo sales. So
57:26when you look at when you look at all starts, plus new plus existing home turnover, at the very moment,
57:35at this very moment, it's 5.76 million. And that's about a little more than one standard deviation below the
57:42mean of 50 year trend as a percentage of US households. So there are like 125 million households,
57:485.5 million, you know, units. You know, so we're, we're, we're in the channel, you know,
57:54people still need to move and, and, you know, need a new home or existing home. So I would say
57:59anything the way I do it, you know, 4.8 million or 5.7 million. But you know, the, the inflation rate
58:06is the wild card. If, if this inflation expectation that came out today, like this is, it comes to
58:12pass, that's a big problem. And, you know, I mean, we're not going to be able to control the yield
58:17curve.
58:18So we're going to end with Ivy and I'll just say, I think I've seen maybe a dozen people in the chat
58:24just say more Ivy, more Ivy. So Ivy, somehow we got to get you back for, for another one of these
58:31sometime soon. But Ivy, how do you, how do you think that the housing market ends up this year in terms of
58:35total home sales? So we have a flat forecast for new home sales this year, which I think
58:41might be high. And on existing homes, we've been looking for modest 5% growth. I think that could
58:47be low. So combined, I don't have the absolutes in front of me, but we're looking for the lion's
58:52share of growth to come from existing homes. Well, I'll take this final minute to just thank
58:58the three panelists. This has been a very lively conversation. I've really enjoyed being the
59:04moderator. I want to thank the audience for your participation and your engagement and
59:09also the great questions that you sent our way. We will be publishing this, this, this panel
59:16on demand in some way. I don't know what the timing of that's going to be, but we will send
59:20out emails to everybody that was on this, on this panel to let them know when that's published.
59:27So if you want to go back and look at it again, you can. Thank you so much, everybody.
59:33Pleasure to be here.
59:33Pleasure to be here, everybody.