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00:00Rapid-fire this morning on the early line to end out our number two Joe Ranieri Donnie right side joined by Joe
00:05Lisi Joe's gonna be in the studio tonight live carrying all that weight from Kevin Walsh
00:10You usually just an NBA guy at this point in the season
00:13We'll see what happens tonight, but I trust Joe Lisi and this knowledge which includes, Mississippi and Michigan State tonight
00:19Lightline fan to opened it up at two and a half now sits at three and a half a total of one forty three and a half
00:23Old myths from the SEC Michigan State from the Big Ten who wins this one out tonight Joe. Who is it?
00:30Well Michigan State might win, but I'm taking the three-and-a-half with the Rebels
00:33I just like the way they're playing I believe in Chris Beard haven't been sold completely on Michigan State being an elite team
00:40They're a good team in my opinion, but I like over 143 and a half Donnie
00:45So give me the Rebels with points and I'm taking over the 143 and a half first game on the docket
00:51We'll see how this plays out. I was on Arkansas last night limited menu, but couldn't hit the props not good
00:58Yeah
01:00can
01:01Kentucky go three and all this year against Tennessee here
01:06They can show I look at this line and and they lost the two previous meetings
01:12How do they can still on a neutral court?
01:16Tennessee has a four and a half point favorite
01:19My my my gut says take Kentucky with the points
01:23But the line is telling me that I have to bet Tennessee and I know it sounds crazy, but I believe in Ziegler
01:30I believe in Lanier the four and a half. I think is gonna be you know a key number
01:35I like Tennessee Lane, and I know Rick Barnes never lives up to expectations
01:40It never steps up in a big spot, but I'm gonna pull the trigger tonight and lay it with the Vols
01:45I do believe that this game goes under the total though
01:48I think it's more of a defensive effort out of Tennessee if they're gonna win this game
01:52They have to do a little bit different than what they did in the previous two meetings
01:57So I'm gonna lay it with Tennessee. I think it'll be that basically a 40-minute game
02:02But I think somehow some way they cover the four and a half guys
02:06It's got to be a 40-minute game Joe. They play 40 minutes in college
02:14Game going right down to the wire these games have been blowouts for the most part
02:19No, they have but understand this too
02:21I always love this point of contention
02:22It's like hard to beat a team three times in the same season
02:25Let me let me let me just go back into the realms of when you grow up as a kid
02:28You play your buddy and Madden you beat him twice
02:30I don't know if I could know you want to play him again cuz you're gonna beat him a third time you play high school
02:34Football and say hey, we scrimmage them and we beat them and then we play them in the regular season
02:37We beat him all three. Yes, you're gonna probably beat them again your little brother that you beat up twice already in one week
02:42Oh, it's gonna be hard to beat him up three times in one week. No, it's not go beat him three times
02:46Let's see what Kentucky can do and pull that upset here, Michigan and Auburn eight-and-a-half point number live right now in the fan
02:52Blue sports book 153 and a half as the total here is Auburn gonna roll Michigan or Michigan
02:58Late night late week always getting a cover always in a close game here Joe who wins out, Michigan, Auburn
03:05Yeah, I think it's Auburn. I think Auburn wins this ballgame convincingly. I just don't believe in Michigan's big men
03:10I know Trey Donaldson is the guy, you know on the point and he's been hitting
03:15Great, you know in a
03:17Great amount of threes when it counts and the games on the line
03:21I just think Auburn if they get off the way
03:23Texas A&M did I think they just put pedal to the metal and run away from it
03:28I just think broom and those guards for Auburn are the difference. I'm gonna lay the eight-and-a-half
03:33I think it's a double-digit win. I
03:36Lean to the over don't love it, but I think it's all Auburn tonight Don again
03:41Yeah
03:42Houston's got to play in Indy. That's that's interesting given the fact I got to take on Purdue here
03:50But I this is great defense against great offense who wins. I
03:55Think Houston wins, but I'm gonna take the points with Purdue. I think Hoffman run could be a difference
04:01Difference maker I saw put up 14 and grabbed 14 pounds. You saw Brayden Smith
04:07Lead that team in terms of the three-point perimeter game
04:10I know Houston has great three-point defense and when I keep this line came out and I covered the game last week when when Purdue
04:18won
04:18I thought this this line would be four and a half five to five the fact that it's up to eight and a half
04:24To me where Purdue is just way too many points in this type of atmosphere with the home potential hometown crowd
04:31Give me the Boilermakers. I think they cover but Houston wins the game guys
04:36We love getting takes from Joe Lisa whether it's college football pro football college basketball the guy does it all here at the network
04:41But he one more thing is this you sell crypto on Fridays to buy back on Mondays like you
04:52It's in a consolidation phase, we'll see how it plays out. I just I risk my own money. You know that I'm not a snake
05:00Body come on. No, who is on the network? I'm a mouth. Give me some intel
05:14There we go, we got it all maybe local cheese
05:18You never know
05:20Lisa our number three on deck with the early line that
05:23Our number three is now live on the early line
05:27Sirius XM channel 159 right here on the sports grid network
05:30It's Joe Ranieri. It's Donnie Wright said here a lot to get to that some fun with Joe Lisa covering a lot of topics here
05:35But as you know, we sort of like reset recharge one hour to go and I love Friday shows because the expectation tonight is
05:43Fantastic for the sweet 16 which lead into elite 8 on Saturday and then he lead 8 action on Sunday
05:49We also have a full Major League Baseball card today as chock-full as we had yesterday an opening day
05:53No
05:54Because teams take off in anticipation that there might be some bad weather on opening day so they can push their opening day back one
06:00Day, but still a decent card nonetheless and a lot of action to go over. So Joe the vibes they're high. It's Friday
06:06It's supposed to be payday in the streets for the people and we need to provide that information in our number three to get them
06:12Home to cash in some tickets
06:14Hmm yeah, I mean and listen who's not excited we get to see the Colorado Rockies play for the first time
06:21So, ah, does it get any better than that as they take on the the Tampa Rays at Yankee Stadium?
06:29Light in Tampa there. So yes, it really does kick off. Well, and I believe that's four o'clock Donnie
06:36We were taking off the MLB schedule today
06:40Fantastic, you know, I'd like to kick off at four o'clock today. Give me some college basketball
06:44Come on, that's Friday night. We should all be able to stay up and have some fun
06:47You know, I won't be able to because I never have some fun late at night
06:50But that's just the me issue right here trying to fight for the people being a man of the people now
06:54Talking about the people here Joe Ranieri
06:56Now's the time like to reach out to the people and see what their thoughts would be on a fade the public poll
07:01So simply you go to sports grid at sports grid on X you hit the follow button and every morning
07:06We give you opportunities to chime in here today's question on sports grid
07:11Which of tonight's underdogs is the best bet to win out right today?
07:15We gave you four options on the card, Kentucky plus 155 is the dog
07:20Michigan at a three-to-one price is a dog Ole Miss at plus 140 and Purdue at plus
07:25285 the poll results here for us the favorite lead simple the lowest
07:31Favorite here meaning the best underdog. Is it Ole Miss at a plus 140 price?
07:36The public said yes at 34% coming in close plus 155, Kentucky at 32%
07:43Michigan at 27% and pulling up the rear here is the Purdue Boilermakers at only 6% me
07:50I went Ole Miss as well went quote-unquote the lowest chalk if you can have chalk for a dog
07:56I did that. Where did you vote in this one Joe? Where'd you go?
07:59All right, this is tough here because I do think it's gonna be a very chalky evening here tonight
08:06But if I'm gonna be looking for a dog, I'm gonna take
08:10While the lowest total and the most points and that's Purdue taking on Houston, right?
08:16The total is down to what about 130 now 131
08:19Somewhere in there and you want to give me and I bet you that number gets to nine Donnie before tip-off here
08:26because that's the late game and
08:29You know depending on how the public does in the early games. They're gonna be an awful lot of Houston money
08:35I think I'm rolling in so I think I would hold off betting Purdue
08:39For now because I think you can get a better number but low total ton of points with a elite offensive team
08:45I'll go with Purdue in this one. I
08:48Can't wait to watch it play out
08:50I mean and I love it and as we said before like part of the charm of the tournament over the past 20 30 40 years
08:56Sometimes Cinderella's make it into the sweet 16 and the elite eight and as I always say
09:01There's so much fun to watch them pull up the upset until you realize
09:04What that upset damaged and what the next game could have actually been we don't have it anymore
09:09It's all power five conferences and we should get great games all the way out
09:12Granted a game is only as good as the eye of the beholder
09:15Probably which side you bet and which side you won and or lost at that point?
09:19So I'm excited to see a play out
09:20Also time to rewrack where we sit here in the rankings here at the fans of sports book for the odds market to cut down
09:27The nets you take a look at Duke. They're a plus 180 price right now. Oh, that's a lot lower, Florida 3-1
09:32Oh, that's a lot lower
09:33Just use simple math in your head those two teams won and advanced last night and other teams have to play to advance to the
09:40Same stage in the elite eight which means Houston back down to a price of six to one
09:44Auburn at six to one Alabama 11 to one with their impressive victory
09:48But we know they have to take on Duke looking at these numbers on the board that we have with this graphic
09:52Any buy-in points here any surprises a little bit or just status quo for you so far Joe
09:58What you know, the problem is I'm I'm holding a 14 to 1, Florida ticket
10:04Here so certainly not buying in that I'm at three and one
10:07The only question I have is do I begin to start hedging beginning with the Texas Tech game if I'm looking at it
10:15Houston I'm also holding a Houston ticket here at 8 to 1. I'm kind of shocked. They're still only 6 to 1 at this point
10:21I think that did a little bit less but it's because Duke is such an
10:26Overwhelming favorite here that there is some value down the board if you're not holding a ticket on anybody
10:32I mean, you know, Tennessee 19 to 1 Texas Tech who we just watched up, Michigan State at 27 to 1
10:40I mean, these are all
10:42Great pedigree teams with more than enough
10:46Talent to be able to run the table here. So the value is there strictly because Duke is such an overwhelming favorite here
10:55They are such an overwhelming favorite. Look plus 180. I know how good Duke is
11:00I picked in my bracket to win at all
11:02I think they're the best team in the country
11:03but also Joe we were talking like like price points right like not every team there is listed at plus
11:09100 psychologists pick the best team and that's what it is
11:11Like still the path for Duke to win a championship
11:15Just get to the final four then win in the final four then win the final against a team. I'm sorry
11:21I do think they're the best team
11:22He said well dying for the best you should just bet him plus
11:25180 to win that elite eight game the final four game and the final game against the Titans of the Titans in
11:31College basketball. I can't take it that low even if I think they're the best team Joe
11:36Well, and the other problem Donnie is that they're never gonna be a dog in any game, right?
11:42So you're not going to be able to get plus money on them on any sort of money line situation from here on out
11:49but
11:50Hypothetically play it out Duke is gotta go with who I think the team that is actually built to beat him in that bracket is
11:57Alabama and then if it's not Alabama, then it's gonna be let's just Houston
12:03Well, so they're gonna have to beat in order to be able to get to the national championship game their toughest games are still to
12:10come here for Duke
12:13Yeah, now if I if we look at that odds market here, right
12:16Let's just say you go Duke, Florida
12:17Houston Auburn and Alabama and we remove the top five teams and list the bottom five teams here
12:23Which would be Tennessee 19 to 1 Texas Tech at 20 to 1 Michigan State at 27 to 1
12:29Kentucky at 85 to 1 Ole Miss at 95 to 1 of those bottom 5 teams
12:34And even with the price points put in who which ticket would you take on those dog prices say, you know what Donnie?
12:40I'll take a flyer because even if they don't win it
12:42I think you might be winning a game or two and I can cash in that ticket for plus money
12:46What you you have to at this point you have to take into consideration
12:52Okay, you got to get to the game, right? You got to get to the national championship game
12:57So if you're not looking at Florida
13:00Then how are you not looking at Texas Tech then at 20 to 1 because of Texas Tech beats, Florida here
13:07You got to love their chances of at least getting to that game there
13:11So I think there's plenty of value on Texas Tech. I you know, let's face it
13:17I don't think even if Alabama beats Duke
13:19I still don't think Alabama is going to get to the national championship game
13:24So I do think that Texas Tech is going to provide the biggest
13:30Push back there for Florida the favorite on that side of the bracket
13:34Yeah, I'm again just the excitement here
13:37We look at those teams where every single one of those is viable and look at the bottom of the board
13:41It's Ole Miss, you know a really good team out of the best conference in college basketball
13:46And you're almost getting a hundred to one when they're already in the sweet 16
13:50It's pretty crazy how it stacks up but let you know how dominant those top four seeds are and not only do you have to pull
13:56Off like hey, let me just get one upset
13:58Multiple upsets against really good basketball teams before you even find yourself in the game the final game
14:04I should say on that Monday night
14:06Against a really good basketball team as it appears right now if you're just line picking Duke, Florida plus 180
14:13Three to one price here opposite sides of the bracket. They should meet the national championship game
14:18They both won their games going away there in the round of sweet 16 into the 32
14:23But we are gonna have a preview of all of these games coming up tonight
14:26but more importantly
14:27Let's say we'll go with the odds
14:29Opened and where we expect them to close for tonight's game and have some fun
14:33Handicapping all the way through what a Friday it is here on the sports grid network
14:36Make sure you keep the dial right here series XM channel 159
14:40Let's light up the odds board for tonight because yesterday we did see a lot of offense for more games on tap tonight sweet
14:4716 style and as Joe Ranier has pointed out multiple times on this show
14:50We do have an intriguing environment where we're used to playing at NCAA slash NBA arenas
14:56We will have two of those games tonight
14:57We also have two games tonight that are gonna be played in a football stadium in Indianapolis
15:02The home of the Colts Lucas Oil Stadium before we get to the individual breakdowns of the games
15:06We always like to analyze where the lines currently sit and where they opened and see if the feel and the vibe of those is
15:12Game number one 635 636 on the rotation a 709 start
15:17It's Mississippi versus Michigan State. This game is going to take place in Atlanta tonight in a basketball arena
15:23This line opened up at minus two and a half points
15:25It currently sits at the fan blue sportsbook at three and a half
15:28The total Joe hasn't moved at all one forty three and a half and now currently sitting at one forty three and a half
15:34Is that number feel late to you with Michigan State? Is it about right and also a quick look at the total?
15:42Yeah, it feels right
15:45Although I can tell you this Donnie having betting against the SEC hasn't exactly been
15:52Been great
15:54If you've if you've gone that route, they have done a pretty good job. In fact now
16:0161 and 33
16:03Against the number this season when they play non-conference opponents
16:08So teams out of the conference playing the SEC the SEC is dominated
16:11It's the best conference in all of college basketball
16:16Bar not so I get Michigan State being the favorite right now
16:22The SEC is also 10 and 6 against the number in this tournament when playing
16:27You know when playing these non-conference teams Michigan State should be the favorite
16:33I don't see the number moving a whole lot more one way or the other
16:39To me. This is about regression. We talked about
16:42regression to the mean with Alabama and what we got last night from Sears and company because they had they weren't able to hit
16:50Anything in the first couple of games that they played in this tournament and then look at what we had last night
16:55Old miss has not missed. It feels like a shot the entire tournament their path to the sweet 16
17:03Has happened because they have absolutely
17:06Hit everything that they have thrown up at the bucket Michigan State's again the depth for Michigan State
17:14unbelievable, I
17:16Don't know that the total is gonna go up and over. I kind of like the under in this one
17:22I feel like the number is right where it should be and which is why we're not getting a whole lot of movement
17:27But this to me is priced exactly where it should be Donnie and I don't see it moving
17:32Very much more here before tip-off
17:36739 tonight 639 640 on the rotation
17:39That's Kentucky and that's Tennessee and that is going to be played at Lucas oil field
17:43Which again that stadium is an NFL stadium here?
17:46sometimes I like when the odds makers put out a line and it doesn't move because it feels to me like
17:51You don't get that push and pull with it. Ooh, that feels about right
17:54The reason I bring that up is Kentucky and Tennessee opened up at 145 and a half now at the fan blue sportsbook
17:59We did lose a point on that at 144 and a half
18:01But the side itself Joe
18:03Minus four and a half at the opening number still sits today at minus four and a half at the opening number
18:08So again, we'll handicap these games in just a bit Kentucky and Tennessee
18:12Give me your vantage point if anything changes because we are playing in a football stadium
18:18Yeah, we're playing in a football stadium. And again, this is elite defense versus
18:24Offense again, right?
18:25Kentucky is not going to play any defense
18:27They're not even remotely close on the same page as what Tennessee is going to bring to the table and don't forget
18:32This is a Kentucky team now and Mark Pope has done a heck of a job
18:37But this these are all transfers when he took this job in Kentucky
18:41Then none of these guys played together. You got him all he brought them all in there was nobody left on the team. So
18:47They have
18:49overperformed
18:50Expectations to this point and I think what this is a big Joe's versus pros here because the pros
18:59Obviously like Tennessee, which is why this number is where it's at here
19:03The public can't understand it since Kentucky has already beaten them twice this year
19:08Well, why in the world are they getting four and a half point?
19:11Well, the problem is yes
19:13the public is better in Kentucky, but this line isn't moving because the pros like Tennessee and they like them because
19:20Kentucky and those two games went 24 or 48
19:2450% from three in those two wins while Tennessee went 14 of 63 22 percent
19:30Are we really thinking Kentucky is going to hit another 50% of their threes in a football stadium?
19:37Against the team that knows them better than anybody. So I understand why Tennessee is the favorite here
19:43I also think the total is moved more
19:46I mean, this was one forty six and a half one forty seven now
19:50We're down to one forty four one forty four and a half and I agree with that because if I like, Tennessee
19:56I like the under here Donnie do I not I think this is going to be a rock fight and Tennessee's gonna make it that
20:03way
20:04Six thirty three six thirty four. That's a 939 tip tonight, Michigan and Auburn once again back down in Atlanta tonight
20:11Seven and a half is the opening number at the fan blue sportsbook increasing now to eight and a half points as a favorite for the
20:16Auburn Tigers the line also on the move for the total one fifty one and a half up to one fifty three and a half
20:21What do you think about the public buying into Auburn and also the total between Michigan and Auburn?
20:27Listen, Auburn just beat a good Creighton team and Creighton made 45% of their three-point shots in that game
20:35I you know Auburn has been number one in the country for most of the year
20:41And you got to I think this number is right. How many more Michigan games?
20:46Can we actually see them win by two or three points here Donnie and or one possession?
20:51I like the total moving up. It makes total sense, but I can tell you now
20:56Hurry up and bet the over if that's the direction you're going Donnie because I don't think this is gonna stop
21:01I think this is gonna close one fifty five one fifty five and a half before tip-off
21:07Final game tonight six thirty seven six thirty eight on the rotation Purdue and Houston
21:111009 is a tip time seven and a half of the opening number now up to eight and a half
21:15But how about the total one thirty one and a half of the opening number one thirty one and a half as it sits now?
21:20Aircraft carrier game once again Purdue Houston quickly here
21:24I'll just tell you right now teams playing in their home state in the tournament
21:29143 103 and two against the number since
21:341991 they didn't do Houston any favors by putting this game in Indy and Purdue facing them here. However
21:41It's very hard to go against an elite defensive team like the Cougars
21:46I agree with the total going down and I think it will continue to go down
21:50Two of the best defensive teams in the country playing in a football stadium. Does it help we got all four games?
21:56We're gonna handicap each one
21:58Individually coming up next stick with us right here on the early line
22:01All right, let's get into it let's have some fun there's four games tonight marquee cards 709 739 939 and
22:091009 tonight as we start with the earliest game 635 636 on the rotation, Mississippi, Michigan State from live
22:17Atlanta tonight. We already went over the numbers here
22:19Three and a half is the current favorite at the fan bull sports book for Michigan State
22:23143 and a half as the total
22:25Lining this game up Joe and I talking here over the break. The one thing we know what Michigan State is
22:29It's not a pretty basketball team. It's not littered with first-team all-americans and number one overall draft picks
22:35They just get the job done with a great coach and a great defensive footprint. We like Mississippi's offense
22:40It's top 25 in the country when you take a look at the efficiency, but Michigan State's defense
22:45Unbelievably rebounding team on defense, which means you don't get second points here fourth overall inefficiency
22:50The best team in the country at defending the three-point line now the interesting part Joe is they'll let you shoot the three
22:57But they're gonna put a hand in your face and that will affect you again
23:01360 plus teams in the country. Nobody defends the three-point line better than Michigan State
23:06How does that affect the game tonight with Mississippi trying to steal some of those points from the three-point line?
23:12well, I think it lends itself to certainly an under in this spot here because
23:20Michigan State number one and defending the three-point percentage shot right all year long
23:26They're not a great three-point shooting team
23:29Their idea of being able to beat you is wearing you down and why can they wear you down?
23:34Because they can go 10 deep
23:36We mentioned it last hour how Florida and the depth that they have and what they just basically wore down
23:44Maryland last night. Well, that's kind of exactly what Michigan State's game plan is
23:49When they can throw ten guys and fresh legs the entire time and every one of them is built to defend
23:56It makes it very very difficult. I love Chris Beard. I think this is the coaching matchup of the night
24:03And with Izzo, but listen, it's tough to go against Michigan State in this spot here
24:11I do favor the under
24:13Simply because Michigan State is not going to hit the three and I also don't believe that Ole Miss
24:19Is going to continue to hit 50% from three like they've done in the first two games
24:25I believe variance will kick in I believe Izzo and Michigan State will dictate pace
24:31Everything is going to be contested in this game
24:34I think this is a good old-fashioned rock fight tonight here
24:37If you don't want to lay the three in the hook, I would definitely look maybe first half under
24:44Michigan State has been a very slow starting team here
24:47They usually pick it up in the second half
24:50so I would look maybe to a first half under if not a full game under and look maybe just maybe you can get
24:58Michigan State
24:59Live at a much better number than minus three and a half
25:03Maybe even a pick'em if they fall behind early which they have done a couple of times already here in the tournament
25:09I'm with you on the under because I do think it makes some sense because again when we take a look at some of the
25:13Metrics that come into it right like neither one of these teams gonna try to run you out of the gym
25:17We know the defensive footprint from Michigan State is very good
25:20however
25:20You take a look at Mississippi's offense
25:22Top three in the country at not turning the basketball over and you couple that with Michigan State's defense
25:28It is good, but they don't force a lot of turnovers
25:30The reason I bring that up is that means yes, Mississippi is gonna get their shots
25:34But at the same time, what do you worry about the temple of the games the turnovers the quick breakouts?
25:38It's three on twos the two on ones the breakaway dunks might not be there
25:41And also Michigan State's defense as I pointed out top ten in the country at defensive rebounding
25:46Which means not a lot of second-chance opportunities and Mississippi's offense doesn't rebound all that well on the offensive glass
25:52Those are pluses you look at Michigan State by the way their offensive footprint because you think about their defense so much
25:57There's still top 25 in the country here Joe at being efficient now
26:01You do get a good defensive team in Mississippi that played in the best conferencing college basketball
26:05But there are some things that I do like Michigan's offense will get to the free-throw line because why?
26:10Mississippi fouls a lot that could be an added advantage
26:12The interesting part is also Michigan State doesn't shoot the three-point shot all that well and doesn't shoot it from volume at all
26:19so maybe you're just collapsing inside the paint, which could make a difference here, but also
26:26321st in the country Joe at Stingis the 360 plus teams at scoring inside the paint. That's the point distribution for Mississippi
26:33So I don't think we have two teams on the offensive side Joe that really match up well against each other
26:38Neutral sight a lot on the line and for me I tend to lean towards the under as well
26:43so Joe
26:43I like the look there that you're saying could be more of a rock fight getting some really good defense without a lot of tempo
26:49and fast break opportunities
26:51Yeah, and listen old miss has the athletes at Michigan State is going to try to get out in transition
26:57They have the athletes and the players to be able to make life
27:01You know miserable for Michigan State got to be one in the half court and defense is going to win this game
27:07It's Chris Beard specialty
27:09The under to me is the way to look especially early. I think in this game
27:15SEC SEC
27:17Next up, Kentucky and Tennessee in the zone people right back out again
27:23The battle of the SEC continues tonight and that will take place in Indianapolis Lucas Oil Stadium, Kentucky and Tennessee
27:30739 tip time tonight as we pointed out earlier the line opened up at four and a half sits at four and a half the
27:36145 and a half down one point to 144 and a half live right now
27:41The breakdowns are as we know it defense defense defense for Tennessee
27:45Beautiful offense for Kentucky looking at it for me. I look at that Kentucky offense. There's nothing they don't do
27:51Well shoot the three-point shot elite
27:53Make their shots inside the arc go to the free throw line or average there you take a look at the turnovers
27:59They don't turn it over but Tennessee here
28:01Here's where it comes down to you are in a football stadium
28:04Kentucky wants to shoot the three-point shot
28:06Kentucky top three in the country only twenty eight percent allowed from the three-point line
28:11However, Joe, they let you shoot the three-point shot
28:15Talk to me about Kentucky's offense in a football stadium
28:18Needing to be relying on a three-point shot with a team that defends it pretty darn well
28:24Yeah, and again, I think that's where the pros versus the Joe's comes in in this game
28:30Is that the public looks at this game and goes wait a minute, I think Kentucky
28:35beat them twice
28:38Already in the regular season. I want why in the world are they a four four and a half point favorite?
28:44But when you dive into it and you compare first of all both these teams have very similar strength of schedules
28:51Because they've all played in the SEC, right, but they also have very similar three-point
28:58percentage differentials
29:00Against teams there. They both have
29:03Plus six and a half plus seven against the teams that they have played when it comes to three-point differential
29:09So it was so ridiculous. We talk about variance donnie the variance that kentucky would have shot
29:1650 from three in those games while 14 of 63 for 22
29:22from the outside
29:24Tennessee beat them in every other facet of the game except for the three-point differential
29:30Uh, they have played
29:32Very similar styles all year long. It's elite defense for tennessee. It's elite offense for kentucky
29:39What's gonna win here?
29:41Tennessee should absolutely be the favorite i'm betting tennessee simply done it because I don't believe kentucky
29:48On a neutral side game again is gonna go. I mean they went 24 or 48 in two games there
29:54In those wins, they're not shooting 50 against this tennessee team again
29:59Tennessee beat them in the paint and every place else. I think they beat them again here tonight
30:05You take a look at that total. I do agree with the line drop 145 and after 144 and a half
30:09Can these teams of course, they're two talented teams when we take a look at tennessee
30:12We usually always focus just on the defense itself. They're top 20 in the country in efficiency
30:16But as we just pointed out again styles do make fights here
30:20If you have teams that want to shoot the three-point shot and teams that defend it you're gonna have an issue and particularly
30:25Playing in the first game now hear me out on this too
30:27Joe, you take a look at the opening rounds here in indianapolis as the sweet 16
30:32Two teams or excuse me two games four teams are going to play get used to the shooting sites
30:37Get you to the shooting lines and then maybe be ready for the elite eights and we did it yesterday
30:41I'm used to it got a couple practices in we'll be fine first game there
30:44Yes, they have practice there, but the first game is going to be a little bit different
30:48Look at tennessee's offense, which kentucky doesn't turn you over at all. That's a plus for tennessee
30:52But the same imprint we're looking for kentucky's offense is top 79 in the country volume wise from three-point range
30:58That's tennessee. They're pretty good at making it about 35 as a team, but look at kentucky's defense
31:04321st in the country chasing you off of the line despite defending it
31:08Well, so we have a game joe that we take a look at and say two defenses
31:12That will put your hand in their face when they try to make a three-point shot
31:16But let you shoot it here in a football stadium
31:19Yes, the game can go over but I lean towards under right off the bat here joe
31:24I I am with you and uh early under two
31:28As well, I mean keep in mind kentucky won those two games this year by a total of 16 points
31:35They had 39 more points from three-point range kentucky and yet
31:40Only managed to win those games combined by a total of 16 points
31:45That's what we call variance at some point donny and we've seen it now in a couple of spots
31:50You start regressing back to the mean that's advantage. Tennessee end to the under all day here
31:57Yeah, i'm excited by this game because again it adds that added intrigue
32:00Which I can't believe they do play games in football stadiums and basketball
32:04like I you can't even equate it like to other sports or where that really affects you because like
32:08A football field of so is going to be a hundred now
32:10Hey, well, I couldn't throw that deep out because I can see into the background
32:14There's a mountain back there like no but shooting lanes make a big difference in particularly when you're traveling and playing at new sites
32:19At this point it always factors in so maybe as you're pointing out
32:22You can take a look at the first exactly but the first half under where it's like
32:26Yes, they could come out and shoot the lights out
32:28But there's a chance they don't do that
32:29Maybe you capitalize on it a fantastic game in the sec two teams that know each other
32:33Well playing two times already this season
32:35We'll see who's going to be that victor moving on to the elite eight the next game
32:39We'll take a look at tonight 939 start getting back to atlanta. That's michigan a team
32:44That's notorious joe for playing close game after close game for close game played a very good conference
32:50Won the conference tournament at the end of the season and they're playing very good basketball as we play
32:54Into the ncaa tournament this line opened up for auburn as we pointed out seven and a half
32:59The live number at the fan blue sportsbook eight and a half the total which is bouncing now 151 and a half now up live
33:05to
33:06153 and a half so points are expected another sec team
33:10But as I talked all week long getting different like influences from people that we've had on the show
33:14Like michigan is such a lightning rod. Are you trusting what you're seeing over the length of the season?
33:20Or is it just sooner or later? You can't just play these close games and come away with the victory
33:24But again, we're not asking for the victory. Can they stay within the eight and a half points here joe?
33:31Uh, I don't think so. Uh, I I think this is where it ends for michigan here tonight. I think auburn
33:38Uh who just went up and beat a very good shooting creighton team
33:42Who still again made 45 percent of their threes in that game and they still covered their eight and a half spread?
33:49I think it was against creighton or nine point spread in that game here
33:53So you're asking michigan who's not as good a shooting team certainly from outside?
33:58As what creighton is but you know what they do do better than creighton turn the ball over
34:03Michigan's propensity for turnovers is what's going to allow auburn in this game
34:10Uh to be able to cover this spread and I think win, uh by double digits here
34:15I I think the number the total goes up here a little bit more before tip off
34:21I just don't think the idea that the two bigs with golden and wolf
34:26Uh are just going to handle johnny broom. Hey look johnny. Johnny broom's great
34:30Uh, he's a leader of auburn
34:32But what how are you going to stop everybody else on auburn from firing away?
34:38And then also turning the ball over and giving auburn free buckets, which you're inevitably going to do
34:44Is is a recipe for disaster? I think auburn handles michigan easily here tonight
34:50And you take a look because it is about shot making we get that here and still it is going to be a neutral court
34:54It's down in the south. There may be more auburn fans in michigan, but obviously michigan's going to travel
34:58It's not played in the mercedes-benz, you know stadium in atlanta
35:02It's played in state farm arena, which is a little bit easier on the sight lines
35:05You take a look at auburn's defense 11th overall in efficiency this season take according to kenpom
35:10Michigan is 13. So you have two great defenses. But once again, you're looking at good offenses
35:15Auburn does take it to the next level. They're in the top five actually three overall and adjusted efficiency
35:19But here we go again
35:20We take a look at what's going to make sense michigan doesn't handle the ball all that well in offense
35:25Close to 20 of the time they have the basketball show they turn it over
35:28That's one of every five possessions that doesn't end up with an actual shot
35:32That could be a determination in the final score here
35:34But again, we're not just asking who's going to pick it or go money line. Here's the other equation
35:38It seems like when we get to this time of the year the defenses really rise to the occasion
35:42Auburn we said good defense michigan
35:44We said good defense look at the three-point line top 10 in the country at defending the three-point line. It's auburn
35:50Also 66 best in the country at chasing you off of the three-point line
35:54Which means you better do your dirty work down low which is tough to do against a very athletic team
35:58There in auburn you flip it over to the other side here. Auburn loves the three-point shot, but you know
36:03Defends it equally as well. It's michigan's defense
36:06So when I look at these games
36:07It's funny because the imprint right now joe is we're getting points left and right in these games
36:11I find myself leaning more towards unders right here on day number two of the sweet 16
36:17It could very well be and again a lot of this has to do with who do we trust to make shots late
36:23uh in this and
36:26This is for all the marbles here. I I do think auburn's got too many more weapons and takes care of the ball better
36:34Yeah, this is it's such such good games tonight great games yesterday elite eight this weekend one more game to preview here on a friday
36:41We'll do it next right here on the early line
36:43Four games tonight who you got mississippi state michigan state, kentucky. Tennessee, michigan
36:48Auburn, we covered all three of those games game number four tonight the last game on the card
36:531009 eastern to be played in indianapolis. It's purdue. It's houston purdue is from indiana
37:00The game is in indiana home court advantage towards the purdue boilermakers, even though it's a quote-unquote neutral site houston
37:07No shame in their game heavy favorites in this one opened up at seven and a half at the fanbull sportsbook
37:12Sits at eight and a half right now live the total this game. It is low. Why because houston plays
37:17electric defense 131 and a half the opening number still sits at
37:21131 and a half your initial thoughts on this game. We got those joe and erie now more of a handicap style
37:27What are we looking forward to in this game from you?
37:31Well, listen
37:33We're talking about advantage purdue from the location standpoint 60 miles from west
37:39Lafayette is where this game is going to be played. So
37:42It is absolutely advantage purdue there and I told you the numbers earlier
37:48Donnie teams playing in their home state since 1991 in the tournament
37:53143 103 and 2
37:56Against the number it has been very profitable to back those teams playing in their home state in this spot
38:03however, houston does have
38:05Just about every statistical advantage. I think in this game here. We know the biggest weakness for purdue
38:12Is they don't play any defense and they can't stop anybody in the paint
38:17Okay, how in the world are you going to stop?
38:20Uh houston inside here in any way shape or form
38:24They don't rebound all that much and although trey kopp and wren had a tremendous game
38:30Uh last time out, you know, look at who they had to beat versus who houston had to beat. I mean that game against
38:38uh against gonzaga was
38:40Uh, that was a big test for houston, uh elite offensive team gonzaga
38:45You know what they still handled their business only gonzaga played a little bit more defense
38:50Neither of these teams. I think this is important for folks to remember we associate
38:56the houston cougars
38:58at a snail's pace
39:00359th in pace in the country, but don't confuse it. The boilermakers are not running up and down the court
39:07They're not gonzaga. They're
39:09298th
39:11in pace
39:12They are going to make this a half court game and it's all going to come down to whether brandon smith here
39:17Can make enough shots against this defense of houston to keep it close
39:22Love the under agree with the movement to the under
39:26But i'm gonna go houston
39:28Early in this one first half they've been money all year early in games. I think they come out and punch purdue quickly
39:36Uh and have a significant lead by the time they go to the break
39:41You take a look too because you know
39:43Purdue is a really good basketball team top 10 in the country efficiency on offense and not a bad defense
39:48They're 55th in efficiency
39:50But it really gets highlighted again as we talked about tennessee like usually houston only gets credit joe for the defensive effort
39:56They're top 11 in the country and efficiency
39:58It means they're going to play the best defense and be ultra efficient on offense good luck beating them
40:02Which is why that was a seven and a half number at the fan blue sportsbook now sits at eight and a half points
40:06But look at the imprint on their defense
40:08Let's just talk about houston fourth overall and effective field goal percentage unbelievable at turning the basketball over for you defending the three-point line
40:16Fantastic, but also here's the most important ingredient
40:19We talked about again the stadium lines, which could be a fallacy tonight could work out my favor
40:23I'm, just being you know
40:24From what I see in my lifetime you go to a football stadium at least the shooting there
40:28It does take a little bit to adjust advantage the better defensive team here, but look at this inside the paint show
40:34Top five in the country at 44.3 percent is houston's defense
40:39Which means if your three isn't going down which houston will defend they're almost impossible to scoring down low
40:45Even getting closer to the point distribution where sometimes you say we defend the three-point line and defend inside the two
40:50But we still give up points inside the arc
40:53355th out of 360 plus teams at defending down low, which is tremendous
40:57Which means not only are they chasing you at the three-point line and defending it?
41:01They're having a hard time giving up buckets inside the paint as well against them
41:05So points will be a premium for purdue even though they have a top 10 offense
41:09Which brings me to my next point as joe brought up as well
41:12You take a look you have to make shots. It feels like to me like brandon smith
41:16You better make five three point shots tonight
41:18You know
41:18I just told you that they defend the three-point line extremely well because you're not driving it to the rim and laying it up
41:25Against houston at this point. Is it enough to make me go over 131 and a half or stay under i'll tell you right now
41:30I'm, not excited to take the over and you see that line number at eight and a half
41:34Oh, that's a lot for a good purdue team. Yes, it is. But I just told you
41:38Everything you do on offense tonight for a top 10 efficient offense in purdue is going to struggle tonight
41:43Joe, that's where I lean more on the under and I just think the shot making ability if I just want to take a purdue
41:49Number, it's got to be braden smith making at least three plus three point shots just to keep them honest on defense for houston
41:58Yeah, the defense usual for houston, uh, number one in the scoring defense giving up 58.4 points per game
42:05But the difference with this houston team donny is you nailed it
42:09In years past when when calvin sampson and the cougars have fizzled out in this spot. Yes, they were a 33
42:1734 percent three-point shooting team
42:19They are nearly 40 percent this year. That is a different animal what they got rolling offensively here
42:27I think this game can get away from purdue, especially early and if they're chasing houston
42:33It's it's lights out in the second half donny
42:36It really is and again like again the calling card for houston is defense and we just told you they're top 11 in the country
42:41In efficiency on offense, they don't turn the basketball over they rebound like crazy on offense
42:46And oh, yeah, as joe was pointing out as well
42:49You say oh, I wonder the top three-point shooting team in the country
42:51It's probably some team for like the mac where they don't play any defense or the southland conference the big south like no
42:57It's houston at close to 40
43:00As a team and the best part about that is they don't rely on the three-point shot if it's there it's open
43:05They'll take it and they'll make it here and then you take a look at purdue's defense
43:08Which we just told you houston's defense inside the paint is tremendous
43:13341st in the nation at defense inside the paint. It's purdue
43:17I think we might be looking at even though purdue is gonna have the home crowd
43:20Even though I love to take points at this level right here
43:23Maybe it is a 10-point victory here for the houston cougars in this game, but that's all four games joe ad nauseum counted them down
43:31Looked at them analyzed them and capped them. How are we feeling about it feeling comfortable now? We good
43:36I'm feeling good donny and I feel like uh, we've got some winning tickets in our future coming up here tonight
43:43But don't forget still got nba. We got major league baseball got a little something for everybody heading into the weekend. Don't we?
43:50Everything which includes a solo mission for joe ranieri next to kick off your weekend in style on the early line
43:57I'm, headed the radio. Joe's coming back. Enjoy your time