Category
🥇
SportsTranscript
00:00This is Donnie Rightside's college basketball season.
00:04When football is fully done in late February
00:07with a couple of weeks left of regular season action
00:11in conference campaigns, that's when DRS steps up and in.
00:16Team totals, player props, he's got you covered
00:19based on the models, based on the metrics,
00:21and with some winners on this Tuesday night.
00:24And each and every Tuesday night in college basketball
00:28really has been sensational.
00:30We expect nothing but the same on this Tuesday evening.
00:34We start in the Big 10.
00:36We're starting today with a triple header of action.
00:39In Big 10 men's basketball,
00:41there is at least one game every day
00:44through the end of the regular season, Sunday, March 9th.
00:4721 consecutive days of Big 10 hoops, baby,
00:52and what a way to get it started.
00:53Top 15 tilt tonight in East Lansing.
00:56It is Michigan State and Purdue.
00:59Number 14, MSU.
01:00Number 13, Purdue, who dropped both of its games last week.
01:04First back-to-back losing skid for the Boilers
01:07in Big 10 play in nearly two years.
01:11In the Spartans, after making some history
01:13on Saturday evening in Champaign against Illinois,
01:17a three and a half point home favorite tonight.
01:19Total at 148 and a hook.
01:21Donnie, how do you break down this Big 10 bash
01:24tonight in East Lansing?
01:25If you came to watch the three-point shot,
01:27turn the TV off and go to sleep.
01:29That ain't happening tonight
01:30because Michigan State's defense,
01:32number one overall in efficiency in Big 10 play,
01:34going up against Purdue's number one offense in efficiency.
01:36So right away, you'd say,
01:37well, they probably used a three-point shot a lot.
01:39Not necessarily.
01:4013th out of 18 teams at volume from three-point range,
01:42that is Purdue.
01:43But how about Michigan State's defense here, Ben?
01:45Number one in Big 10 play at defending the three-point line.
01:48But here's the caveat.
01:49They'll let you shoot the three-point shot,
01:51but they defend it extremely well.
01:52For a team like Purdue,
01:53that doesn't necessarily want to do that.
01:56So you look at the point distribution here.
01:57Number two in Big 10 play is Purdue inside the arc.
02:00That's pretty good.
02:00But Michigan State is stingy inside the arc
02:03at also defense, as we told you.
02:05Number one overall in efficiency.
02:06But here's where the game lines up pretty good here.
02:08Michigan State on offense third in efficiency
02:10against the third most efficient defense in Purdue.
02:13So you're trying to make some of those changes.
02:14Where can we fit in?
02:15Now, the one thing that Michigan State
02:17has to try to avoid tonight,
02:19Purdue is the best team in Big 10 play at turning you over.
02:2115th in the conference at turning the basketball over
02:24is Michigan State.
02:26You also take a look at Michigan State
02:27at the three-point line, as I told you to start.
02:28We're not getting a lot of three-point shots here.
02:30Why, 18th in conference play at volume
02:32from the three-point line, that's Michigan State.
02:34Purdue defends it pretty well.
02:35That's not where they look.
02:36Point distribution inside the arc,
02:38fourth overall here for Michigan State.
02:41But here's the caveat too.
02:42Number two in conference play,
02:44Michigan State at getting to the free throw line.
02:46You take a look at Purdue,
02:4711th and fouling in conference play.
02:49Why is that important?
02:51Who's the best free throw shooting team in the Big 10?
02:53It is Michigan State at 81% as a team.
02:56And you take a look at the point distribution.
02:58Who's number one at scoring the percentage of their points
03:01from the free throw line in Big 10 play?
03:03It's Michigan State.
03:04In a close basketball game that they are favored in,
03:06they'll make their free throws.
03:07I think it's gonna be a great game, a close contest,
03:10but I had to pick a side.
03:11I would lay with Michigan State in this game.
03:14When you look at the total as well, 148 and a half,
03:18the Spartans under in five of six
03:20for all of the defensive reasons
03:22that Donnie just highlighted.
03:23Purdue over in five of its last six games.
03:27Braden Smith, Trey Kaufman, Ren playing at a Big 10,
03:30all Big 10 level.
03:32And frankly, Braden Smith,
03:33the only other guy with a price.
03:35That is Purdue's point guard.
03:36He is the best in the country as a point guard.
03:39The only other guy with a price
03:41to win the Wharton Award outside of Cooper Flagg
03:44and Jani Broome.
03:45It is a critical week, DRS,
03:47for the race for the Big 10 regular season crown.
03:51Michigan State, 11 and three.
03:52Purdue, 11 and four.
03:54Both teams looking up ever so slightly at the Maize and Blue.
03:58Michigan beat Purdue last week at home.
04:01Michigan State heads to Ann Arbor on Friday night
04:05against its bitter rival in the Wolverines.
04:08What a great one it is going to be.
04:10Top 25 tilt in the SEC.
04:12We head to Stark Vegas.
04:14Number 21, Mississippi State playing better on Saturday
04:18than they had entering in the Egg Basket Bowl
04:22against Ole Miss.
04:23Winning on the road in Oxford.
04:25That incredibly impressive.
04:27But enter Texas A&M.
04:29Two and a half point spread, DRS,
04:31in favor of the Bulldogs at home.
04:33That total, 141 and a hook.
04:36What's the play tonight
04:37between the Aggies and the Bulldogs?
04:39Home court advantage does matter,
04:40but you take a look at Texas A&M's defense
04:42overall efficiency, number two in conference play.
04:44Where can you find those inefficiencies?
04:46Well, the one thing Mississippi State doesn't do as a team
04:48is shoot the three-point shot all that well.
04:50But the third in conference play at volume.
04:51Do you know who's 16th in volume on defense,
04:53which means they will let you shoot the three-point shot?
04:56It's Texas A&M.
04:57Well, good for us for Josh Hubbard.
04:58If you look at his last couple starts at home,
05:00he reigns from three-point range.
05:02Not gonna be cheap, though.
05:03He, to make four of them, it's like a plus 160 number
05:06on the Fandula Sportsbook right now.
05:07I'm debating right now.
05:08Four three-point shots or 16 and a half points.
05:11One way or another, Josh Hubbard has to be the key tonight
05:14for Mississippi State.
05:16Think about it over the break for college basketball bets.
05:19Fast, fast.
05:20Continuing to break down another wonderful Tuesday evening
05:24slate in college basketball.
05:26All right, DRS.
05:27Top 25 tilt in Starkville.
05:29Number 21, Mississippi State.
05:31Number seven, Texas A&M.
05:33You have had some time to think about it.
05:35How are you approaching Josh Hubbard tonight?
05:38The point guard for Chris Jans' Bulldogs.
05:40Let's just go both.
05:41I mean, come on now.
05:42Isn't it like a correlation?
05:43It's gonna splash or triples down,
05:45but we're not gonna get over 16 and a half points
05:47in this game.
05:48Nonsense.
05:49A couple of free throws go through,
05:49because as we said, sometimes it doesn't line up.
05:52But if there's one game for a guy
05:53who loves to shoot three-point shots,
05:55and he is going to be at home for this game
05:57against a team that's like, shoot as many as you want.
05:59Like, hey, if he goes one for nine from three-point range,
06:02like, you know what?
06:03I had my chances at this point here.
06:04So I do think there's a, if they do win,
06:07I can't see him scoring 13 points in the win.
06:10Do you see what I mean?
06:10So I think both have to be that correlation.
06:12If they're gonna play well,
06:14and he loves to shoot three-point shots
06:15against a team that will let you shoot threes,
06:17come on now.
06:17But man, four.
06:19Like, they're not even giving you the three a fan.
06:20They're like, no, no, we're not buying that.
06:21You need four plus,
06:22and it is a good plus money number, though.
06:25But it does make sense,
06:26because Josh Hubbard in seven consecutive games
06:28has attempted at least eight threes.
06:30Yes.
06:31Now, he's not hitting at a 50% clip,
06:34but still, he's getting that volume out there
06:36in nine of the last 10 at least.
06:38Yeah.
06:39He has at least eight hoisted threes out of Josh Hubbard.
06:42He is not scared to shoot.
06:44But Texas A&M, great defensively.
06:46The intensity that Buzz Williams' teams
06:49have always played with is carried over here for A&M.
06:53On that two line,
06:54the number six overall seed in the early bracket preview
06:58from the selection committee on Saturday afternoon.
07:01A&M has won five straight.
07:03They have also gone under in eight of their last nine games.
07:07I told you to keep an eye on Florida.
07:10Minus 115 to be a one seed in the NCAA tournament,
07:13and now the number two overall team in the country.
07:17On the rise in the AP Top 25,
07:19the Gators, a double digit home favorite tonight
07:22in Gainesville against Oklahoma.
07:24A little bit of movement, though.
07:26Back to OU.
07:2713 and a half points spread in favor of the Gators.
07:31Is this game, DRS,
07:32going to be competitive tonight in Gainesville?
07:35It might be competitive,
07:36but if I'm looking at any angle,
07:38it's probably the offense for Florida here,
07:39maybe a team total.
07:40You take a look at the offense for Oklahoma.
07:43They played a decent tempo here, by the way,
07:45over the past, what, four to five games,
07:46giving up some decent points from their defense.
07:49If you look at Florida,
07:50third most efficient team in the SEC on offense
07:52going up against Oklahoma's defense,
07:54which is 11th in efficiency.
07:55Also, one of the teams that fouls more than anybody else
07:58in SEC play, it is Oklahoma.
08:00Now, Florida doesn't really eat from the free throw line,
08:02like we talk about some other teams needing that,
08:04but they love to shoot the three point shot.
08:06Number one, 44% of the shots
08:08from the Florida Gators in conference play
08:10come from three point range,
08:11which is great because you look at the team
08:13that's 12th in line
08:14and letting you shoot the three point shot
08:16at a 16 in the SEC, it is Oklahoma.
08:19And also, you take a look at a team with Oklahoma's defense,
08:21don't rebound all that well,
08:22which means extra chance opportunities.
08:24Even if you took it inside the arc,
08:2614th at defending inside the arc, that is Oklahoma.
08:29Florida should be able to do whatever they want on offense,
08:32and I look for a complete performance out of them
08:34in that way.
08:35So instead of looking at that mid 150s,
08:37let's just say for the total for the game,
08:38just look at Florida.
08:39This game ain't going over unless Florida
08:41is the team that's helping push it to the over.
08:44Porter Moser and his Sooners,
08:46one of four remaining undefeated teams
08:49nearing the end of 2024's calendar year
08:52around the D1 level in college basketball.
08:55Oklahoma started perfect 13 and 0,
08:59but then SEC play happened,
09:01and they are just three and nine.
09:03They have lost four in a row.
09:05The Gators have won four straight.
09:08Florida over in three of those four games.
09:11Oklahoma under far more often as an underdog in SEC play,
09:16where they have been and where they will be tonight
09:19as they head to Gainesville.
09:21All right, DRS, plenty of other great games
09:23around the country tonight.
09:25Houston continues to try to keep pace atop the Big 12.
09:28They're a double digit road favorite in Tempe
09:30against Arizona State.
09:32If the Cougs are to falter,
09:33might Iowa State be on the rise?
09:36Big time favorite against a bad Colorado team
09:39at home tonight in Hilton Coliseum.
09:41Houston and Iowa State, Saturday in H-Town.
09:45That's going to be a really good one
09:46between those two teams.
09:48Texas Tech, keep an eye on the Red Raiders
09:51in the Big 12 title race.
09:52Seven and a half point road favorite now tonight
09:55in, why am I blanking on where it is,
09:58Fort Worth to take on TCU.
10:01A couple of big games, DRS, in the Big 12.
10:04There is, and by the way,
10:05you look at that Houston-Arizona State game.
10:06Sometimes you love the mismatches that you put together
10:08because you have a bad offensive for Arizona State
10:11going up against Houston,
10:12which we know is like being sent through the meat grinder.
10:15Look at the turnover percentage.
10:16One of the teams that turns it over the most
10:18in conference play is Arizona State.
10:20Who takes it away the most in conference play?
10:22It's Houston.
10:22How about offensive rebounding for Arizona State?
10:25Horrendous.
10:25How about a great defensive rebounding team here in Houston?
10:28And you just take a look at the stretch.
10:29Unless you're knocking down your three point shots,
10:32which Houston will let you shoot,
10:34how are they going over their team total tonight
10:36for Arizona State?
10:37Like I lost out yesterday by a couple of points on Virginia.
10:40Like if you're looking for a team total under,
10:42like what does Arizona State do tonight to Houston?
10:44I don't think much.
10:45So maybe they stay under the team total tonight
10:47in that basketball game.
10:49Houston in a great position in the Big 12
10:52with a victory tonight on the road
10:53to win the conference crown for its second consecutive year.
10:57It's only two years in the league.
10:59There were some that worried,
11:00could the Cougs who were so dominant in the American
11:03do the same in the Big 12?
11:05The answer has of course been yes.
11:07With a victory tonight,
11:08Houston will be 14 and one.
11:10A full two games in front of Arizona
11:13who they beat in Tucson over the weekend.
11:16A couple of other big ones in the Big 10.
11:18Wisconsin, number 11 in the country.
11:21A team that I am incredibly excited by.
11:24Just a three and a half point favorite against Illinois.
11:27The Illini try to find it.
11:29Big East basketball.
11:31Marquette, 17 and a half point favorite
11:33against a bad Seton Hall team.
11:35But that bad Seton Hall team beat UConn at home
11:39in New Jersey over the weekend.
11:41Connecticut open a bounce back at home against Villanova.
11:44Seven and a half point spread.
11:46DRS, as you look around the country,
11:48elsewhere in college basketball tonight,
11:50what other games get your attention?
11:52Yeah, try to look at that Villanova-UConn game
11:54as you measure it out
11:55because you're looking at the Big East here,
11:56which isn't great, per se, from top to bottom.
11:59But you look at the number one overall efficient team
12:01in conference play, it's Connecticut.
12:03You know who's number two
12:04in conference play in the Big East?
12:05It's actually Villanova.
12:06You're talking about Villanova
12:07who's always had a penchant for shooting
12:09and making the three-point shots,
12:10shooting close to 40% as a team.
12:13Ninth in conference play out of 11
12:14at defending the three-point line, it's Connecticut.
12:16Now, the one thing that Connecticut does well, Ben,
12:18they chase you off of the three-point line.
12:20So the key for this ingredient is,
12:22can you get to the free throw line
12:23because Villanova shoots an incredible rate here
12:25at close to 82% as a team in conference play,
12:28but can you make your three-point shots?
12:29Connecticut fouls a lot, but UConn doesn't,
12:31excuse me, but Villanova doesn't necessarily
12:34get to the free throw line.
12:35But the key here also on the opposite side,
12:37Villanova is going to let you shoot the three-point shot.
12:39Connecticut likes to shoot the three-point shot.
12:41I actually think we get points tonight
12:43in Villanova, Connecticut
12:44because that three-point line should be open.
12:46If guys are making their free throws
12:47and their three-point shots, why not tonight here?
12:50Two efficient offenses, two average defenses,
12:52give us some points at the XL Center in Hartford.
12:56Love that, DRS.
12:57And let's keep an eye on some points tonight
12:58inside the Kohl Center in Madison.
13:01Not your father's Wisconsin basketball team.
13:04One of the best offenses we have ever seen
13:07out of Badgers basketball.
13:09In Illinois, again, they got off to a great start
13:12in Big Ten play, four and one.
13:14They have now dropped six of their last 11.
13:17They have also gone over in 11 of their last 16 games.
13:21It's 160 and a half.
13:23It's a steep total tonight in Madison,
13:25but Wisconsin can score, Illinois can match,
13:28and the Illini will allow you to do so
13:30on the defensive side of the floor.
13:33Some really great games, DRS,
13:35with some huge implications all across college hoops.
13:38And again, we talked about the Big 12.
13:40Big one tonight in one of those handicapping spots.
13:43BYU now a three-and-a-half point home favorite
13:46in Provo against the Kansas team
13:48that is barely inside the top 25
13:52after being the preseason number one
13:53for a second consecutive year.
13:55Last year, DRS, the Jayhawks had eight Big 12 losses
13:59for the first time since the late 80s.
14:01They're kind of on a path to seeing
14:04that similar mark this season.
14:06Yeah, and BYU, known of penchant, again, I love it,
14:08making the three-point shot
14:09and particularly doing it at home.
14:11But the one thing we do about Kansas,
14:12number one at defending the three-point shot
14:14in conference play, and also understand this,
14:16point distribution, number one here for BYU on offense,
14:19but number 11 on defense being stingy is Kansas.
14:21If they can hold up from the three-point line,
14:23Kansas is probably gonna beat BYU tonight
14:25in their own building.
14:26It would be a big one, the Jayhawks right now,
14:28eight and six in conference play,
14:30same conference mark for Kevin Young and his team, DRS.
14:34Enjoy the Moneyline, we'll talk tomorrow.
14:37John Ruff, here next.
14:38Did you know there are only two more Tuesdays
14:41in the month of February?
14:43Did you know we are fewer than four weeks away
14:46from Selection Sunday,
14:48when the field of 68
14:49in an NCAA men's tournament bracket will be unveiled?
14:53Did you know that John Ruff is here with us on a Tuesday
14:58on the Early Line on Sports Grid
14:59on behalf of the FanDuel Sportsbook,
15:01and of course, doing some excellent work with CBS Sports.
15:05John, as always, we appreciate the time.
15:08Thanks for being here on the Early Line.
15:10Ben, great to be with you.
15:12I don't know if my excitement level has ever been higher
15:15than it is right now
15:16because you had that incredible intro.
15:18Just two more Tuesdays until a month that has no pier.
15:23I love that.
15:24I love that catchphrase indeed.
15:26And John, as we go through the end of February
15:29into early March throughout the entirety of the remainder
15:32of this Big Ten men's basketball regular season,
15:35there will be at least one Big Ten tilt each and every night,
15:3921 consecutive days of Big Ten men's basketball.
15:43And what a way to get it started on this Tuesday night
15:47in a top 15 tilt in East Lansing, Michigan,
15:49inside the Breslin Center, 14th-ranked Michigan State,
15:53hosting number 13, Purdue.
15:55John, three and a half points spread
15:57in favor of the Spartans,
15:58over-understands at 148 and a half.
16:01This game is critical for the Big Ten title race.
16:04What do you expect tonight in East Lansing?
16:07Well, I'm curious the emotion of both teams, Ben,
16:10as they're both coming off emotional situations
16:12over the weekend.
16:13Purdue was not vintage Purdue defensively
16:16on Saturday against Wisconsin,
16:17giving up 94 points to the Badgers at Mackey Arena.
16:21And then conversely, Michigan State is coming off
16:24that road win at Illinois, which was Tom Izzo's,
16:27you know, defining win in terms of passing Bob Knight's
16:30record for the most, you know, wins all time
16:32by a Big Ten head coach.
16:34So I expect a typical Michigan State-Purdue game.
16:37I'm really curious, though,
16:39how Michigan State's depth affects the Boilers.
16:41I think Michigan State's the deeper team,
16:43but Purdue has more star power, obviously,
16:44with Braden Smith and Trey Kaufman-Wren.
16:47It has been the mentality for MSU all year, John.
16:50They wear it on their pregame warmups.
16:52Strength in numbers.
16:54We'll see if that continues tonight.
16:56It was Big Ten win number 354 on Saturday for Tom Izzo.
17:01Now the all-time winningest head coach in Big Ten history.
17:05One pass, Bob Knight.
17:07But Michigan State still in the hunt
17:09for a Big Ten regular season championship,
17:11as is Purdue, but Michigan at the top.
17:15John, how about this for a week in the Big Ten?
17:18This game tonight between MSU and Purdue.
17:21The Spartans 11-3, the Boilers 11-4 in Big Ten play.
17:25And then Friday night in Ann Arbor,
17:27it's Michigan at 12-2,
17:29hosting their in-state rivals in Michigan State.
17:33When all is said and done,
17:34at the end of this regular season, John,
17:36who wins a Big Ten regular season crown?
17:39You know, I think it's Michigan.
17:40And I think we can start to say right now
17:43that when you look at the makeup of this conference,
17:46if we're looking at a Big Ten coach of the year race,
17:49I think I would say Dusty May won Greggard number two.
17:53And you look at the two dynamics
17:54in which those head coaches took over.
17:56Dusty May takes the Michigan job
17:58off a team that wins eight games under Juwan Howard,
18:01builds a completely different roster,
18:03and now has Michigan in position to be in position
18:06to win a Big Ten regular season title.
18:08What about Greggard, meanwhile,
18:10whose team will host Illinois tonight in Madison?
18:12Greggard loses Chucky Epper in the Louisville,
18:15loses A.J. Storer to Kansas.
18:18And I remember that was a Wisconsin team
18:20that was a five seed in the NCAA tournament,
18:22and the Badgers are significantly better.
18:24So those two coaches, to me,
18:27at the top of the Big Ten coach of the year race,
18:30Kevin Willard from Maryland,
18:31Mick Cronin of UCLA, not far behind.
18:34John, as you well know,
18:35not your father's Badgers offense this year
18:38for how prolific Wisconsin has been.
18:41Three and a half points spread in favor of the Badgers
18:44as they host a reeling Illini team
18:46inside the Kohl Center tonight.
18:48Let's get to the SEC, top 25 tilt in Starkville.
18:52Number 21, Mississippi State,
18:54after a big rivalry road win over the weekend in Oxford,
18:58now gets ready to take on number seven, Texas A&M.
19:02The Bulldogs, an ever so slight
19:04two and a half point favorite at home.
19:06John, A&M has won five straight games.
19:10How do you break down this matchup in the SEC tonight?
19:13You know, the mark of a team that's built
19:15to go deep in the NCAA tournament,
19:17the mark of a team that obviously is built for March
19:21is how it plays away from home.
19:23Texas A&M entering tonight's game
19:26against Mississippi State in Starkville
19:28is four and three in true road games this season.
19:32And Ben, two of those three losses at UCF,
19:36and then also at Texas, were by a combined four points.
19:39And that four and three record does not count the game
19:43that Texas A&M won against Purdue
19:45at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis in December,
19:49which is an hour away from the Boilers campus.
19:51So if you count that as well as the road game,
19:54A&M is five and three,
19:55and that's why when you consider what this team returned,
19:59over 82% of its scoring from last year's team
20:02that took Houston to the wire
20:04in the second round of the NCAA tournament
20:06and lost in overtime,
20:07and what it added in the transfer portal
20:10with Zurich Phelps, with Pharrell Payne,
20:12with C.J. Wilshire,
20:14I think you can say right now that unequivocally
20:16this is Buzz Williams' best chance to go to a Final Four.
20:19I think you could say there is palpable buzz
20:22in College Station without little doubt.
20:25John, as we focus on the SEC,
20:27the early bracket preview on Saturday,
20:30we learned that Florida would be on the one line
20:33if the season ended when it did,
20:36and the committee thinks very highly of the Gators.
20:38How could you not?
20:39Florida now the number two team
20:41in the AP Top 25 this week.
20:4413.5 point favorite now at home tonight in Gainesville
20:47as Todd Golden's Gators get ready to host Oklahoma.
20:51John, this game we can break down for sure,
20:54but when you look at this Florida team
20:56and what we will see tonight,
20:57what is the ceiling for UF this year?
21:00You know, Florida is unequivocally
21:02a Final Four caliber team.
21:04Walter Clayton Jr. is playing like a first-team All-American
21:07and Ben, we have to remember this
21:09and we have to continue to reiterate it
21:11as we continue to talk about college basketball.
21:14One of the biggest reasons why Florida
21:16has been so effective this year
21:18is because of the retention that this program has had.
21:21And I've talked about this with Todd Golden
21:23yesterday on my podcast.
21:25You know, it was such a big priority for Florida to retain
21:28before it started adding.
21:30It allowed the Gators to have the foundation
21:33that they have right now.
21:34Walter Clayton Jr., Denzel Aberdeen,
21:37you know, Will Richard, Alex Condon, Tommy Houck,
21:40all of these players were a part of last year's team
21:43that made the NCAA Tournament
21:45and lost to Colorado in the first round.
21:47This is only February,
21:49but just two more Tuesdays in this month
21:52before one you know very well.
21:54John Rothstein, as always, we appreciate the time.
21:57More on the early line, up next.