Rain, thunderstorms, freezing rain and heavy snow are all possible Friday-Sunday.
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00:00Well I'm back from Arizona and we are tracking the latest with this approaching storm system
00:04coming in for the weekend. A mixed bag, we're talking about ice potentially in northeastern
00:07Minnesota in addition to snow with round one and another round of snow that could affect central
00:12Minnesota maybe even the Twin Cities here Saturday night into Sunday but there may be more snow
00:17next week as we start April.
00:30So the first batch of advisories are out. We've got winter weather advisories for the northernmost
00:37counties of Minnesota and a winter storm watch here for the North Shore and Duluth once again
00:43which has been really the only place in the state that has seen significant or close to normal
00:49snowfall all season and we're probably going to see more of these advisories here as we head into
00:55tomorrow and certainly as we head into Saturday as we get a little clearer picture of what this
01:01storm system will do. Right now of course it's beautiful clear skies temperatures are in the 50s
01:08headed towards 60 degrees here this afternoon but we can already see the first volley of moisture
01:13here it's just some clouds into Idaho, Nevada and then clouds starting to make their way into
01:18North Dakota riding the Manitoba-North Dakota border and we're going to see really a couple
01:24different spokes of energy from this system make its way towards us here over the next 48 hours or
01:29so. We'll kind of model that here with the European model put on the upper level pattern to show you
01:35what's going to be happening here. So what we're looking at here is vorticity which tells us that
01:42there's rotation or air that is moving vertically upward aloft and this gives us an indication of
01:49what's going on broadly in the atmosphere. So the first volley comes through tonight into tomorrow
01:54you can see some of those red and yellow areas that's a short wave so a wave of energy here
01:59aloft that moves into Minnesota overnight into tomorrow but then a second round here comes in
02:04you can see out of Nebraska and Colorado that's what's going to move in for Saturday into Saturday
02:10night and that's going to be the main event here for us in Central and Southern Minnesota. So
02:15tonight into tomorrow mostly Northern Minnesota but as we head into Saturday Sunday we're going
02:20to see a precip effect more broadly the entire state here but there's also a third wave behind
02:27it you can see digging here into Kansas this is by late Sunday that one is going to move south and
02:32that's the one that will create another swath of rain snow wintery mix Iowa, Illinois into Wisconsin
02:38for Sunday and Sunday night. So what we're looking at as far as impacts or the weather service I want
02:44to show you their snowfall forecast map because this kind of shows the two main waves of moisture
02:49the first one tonight into tomorrow, tomorrow night that's when places like Angle Inlet,
02:55International Falls, Grand Marais will get round one and then you can kind of see that second swath
03:00that is Alexandria to St. Cloud to Duluth that's the area that will develop late Saturday into
03:04Sunday and that's the one that will also bring the Twin Cities potentially some snowfall here. So
03:09northeastern Minnesota has a potential for up to a quarter of an inch of ice accumulation here
03:15Friday into Friday night and Saturday so that is obviously not very welcomed forecast at all for
03:22that area ice is certainly worse than snow and they're going to get all of that too snow on top
03:27of it. So wanted to switch over the NAMM model show you the precipitation types this is handling
03:32it pretty well so overnight we're going to see snow develop mostly into southern Canada but
03:36that'll start to sneak into northern Minnesota here as we head into tomorrow and this is 4 p.m.
03:42Friday we've got all variety of precipitation rain around Detroit Lakes, freezing rain,
03:49Bemidji, Thief River Falls, Big Fork and then sleet north of that snow up around Roseau so kind
03:57of literally everything here and then that sleet moves onto the Iron Range by the evening snow
04:01showers around International Falls and maybe freezing rain and rain Duluth and Moose Lake so
04:06that's round one. Then round two that's going to affect central and southern Minnesota starts to
04:12develop Saturday here as that second wave comes out of the Rockies that's going to bring rain
04:16showers into far southern Minnesota by mid-Saturday morning late Saturday morning might pull off the
04:21first half of the day dry here in the Twin Cities but by the afternoon we will see steadier rain
04:27showers around and the potential for yes some freezing rain and sleet across central Minnesota
04:32northern suburbs and then we're going to start to see a narrow area of heavy snow develop
04:37from Appleton through Alexandria Little Falls Brainerd up to Duluth this is with that second
04:42round and then that will transition because of the timing here Saturday evening colder air moving in
04:47darkness settling in that will turn to mostly snow with rain in southeastern Minnesota Twin
04:52Cities is going to ride the edge of all varieties of precipitation so that's what makes the Twin
04:57Cities specific forecast very tricky here most of the models are lining up on central Minnesota
05:03for a heavy swath of snow but the Twin Cities on the southern edge of that into Sunday so this
05:09all wraps up here by midday Sunday and then that third wave moves mostly to the south and southeast
05:15we'll put on the European model which goes out a little farther here's Sunday evening and you can
05:20see yeah that is staying pretty well to the south here across Iowa Illinois and Wisconsin
05:28with that third wave for us so European model kind of showing the same thing we'll back up a little
05:34bit overnight tonight snow mostly north of the Minnesota Canadian border and then rain freezing
05:40rain snow during the day Friday for northern Minnesota turning to mostly snow up along the
05:46far northern part of the state but then that second round gets going here this is Saturday
05:50rain moving in by midday and then turning to freezing rain sleet the snow across central
05:55Minnesota by by the evening all snow just north of that across the central Minnesota swath from
06:01Alexandria Brainerd to Duluth European models keeping it mostly rain though here in the Twin
06:06Cities so you get the idea it's a complicated messy storm so I'm going to put on snowfall
06:12totals from all the different models for the second wave to kind of show you what's going on
06:16European model you can see keeps the metro mostly out of the accumulating snow maybe a
06:22slushy coating but you get up to Brainerd Duluth we're talking six to eight inches of snow
06:29but the NAMM model which we were just looking at spreads that snow a little bit further south
06:33into the Twin Cities if we zoom in on the Twin Cities you can kind of see oh I guess that's not
06:38an option for the NAMM model we'll zoom in on a statewide basis anyway and you can see St. Cloud
06:44few inches of snow but most of the Twin Cities half inch inch and a half of snow and that's
06:50probably going to be on the high end because of the rain and the warm ground we got to look at
06:54positive snow depth change which accounts for or at least in theory accounts for melting and
06:59compaction and then we get maybe a half inch or so but yeah so that's the European model
07:05the artificial intelligence applied version of the European model so running AI and until we get
07:14solutions that resemble things in the past so machine learning version of the European model
07:19actually spreads the snow out a little bit more and brings it into the Twin Cities some
07:22with the heaviest snow from Marshall through St. Cloud and even the northern Twin Cities maybe
07:28three four five inches of snow but metro wide perhaps in the two to five inch category for
07:35snowfall here but again the European model itself keeps it farther north Canadian model keeps it
07:42farther north um let's see if the uh three kilometer NAMM doesn't go out that far just
07:50yet but the ensemble models uh the European model ensembles uh keep that snow across central
07:56Minnesota with maybe an inch or two in the Twin Cities Canadian model the same thing now if you're
08:01a keen observer of the computer models you've noticed I've specifically left out the American
08:06model so far because it's been crazy remember the last storm it really produced some insane
08:11snowfall totals in the Twin Cities and it was way off so we don't have a lot of faith in it
08:16right now it's been having a lot of issues lately uh but it does have you notice the heavier band
08:22of snow much farther south than all of the other models uh it has the heaviest snow swath just
08:29south of the Twin Cities so Marshall Mankato into the south metro uh Hastings towards Eau Claire
08:36and the same thing with the ensemble models of the American model though not as crazy with the
08:41snowfall totals but still generally has the heavier uh snowfall with that round two coming
08:46through the Twin Cities with perhaps three to four inches of snow but again European model
08:50farther north Canadian model farther north uh the NAMM model farther north but the machine learning
08:57version the AI version of European model is maybe somewhere between the other models and the
09:02American model so that's the headache of the forecast for uh late Saturday into Sunday this
09:08could change a lot as far as snowfall totals so literally in the Twin Cities we're looking at
09:12zero to maybe four or five inches depending upon where that band sets up and the temperatures uh
09:18set up just ideally here uh want to talk about tomorrow a little bit ahead of it because we're
09:24going to see quite the crazy temperature contrast tomorrow warm front is going to be coming through
09:31just up to about the Twin Cities area here so watch the winds here as we head into early Friday
09:37you can see winds increase in southern Minnesota 10 to 20 miles an hour to the south uh and by
09:434 p.m the warm front is literally right through the Twin Cities you can see where the wind shift
09:48is the northeast the northern suburbs east winds southern suburbs south winds that is a sure sign
09:55of a warm front look at the temperatures at that time we're going to have uh temperatures just
10:01barely above freezing in Duluth while places like Fairmont even Mankato maybe reach 80 degrees and
10:08in the Twin Cities low 70s but there's going to be a divide too if you're in the northern suburbs
10:13maybe just 60 but if you're in the southern suburbs mid-70s so quite the temperature contrast
10:18tomorrow too so uh really quite incredible setup that will all feed into the system of course
10:23temperatures really matter now we do also have a marginal risk of severe weather this is tomorrow
10:29into tomorrow night because we could see some thunderstorms develop um across Nebraska Iowa
10:35lifting into Minnesota now the main threat of anything is going to be hail potentially a small
10:40chance of hail here in the Twin Cities in southeastern Minnesota um we'll put on the
10:46high resolution rapid refresh model to give us a little bit better idea it doesn't go out quite
10:51far enough just yet but maybe you can show us some of those hints of thunderstorms you can see
10:56that mixed bag of precip to the north um and then maybe some showers thunderstorms popping up
11:01down around the Sioux Falls area but this does not look really exciting to me as far as potential
11:07thunderstorms yeah the NAMM model is the only one really kind of hinting at some thunderstorms this
11:14is uh 11 p.m. Friday evening you got a few pretty modest looking showers and thunderstorms down
11:22around Fairmont, Faribault and then they sort of fizzle out before they reach the Twin Cities but
11:27this is you can see this area of thunderstorms from central Nebraska through Sioux City Iowa
11:33to about Rochester and that lines up with the Storm Prediction Center is basically
11:38marginal risk for tomorrow tomorrow night so they're just kind of covering that possibility
11:43that there could be a couple of rogue thunderstorms but otherwise 72 tomorrow now again
11:48that'll be the high temperature at the airport and then we're in for colder weather Saturday into
11:52next week just 40s for highs which is actually just a little bit below normal believe it or not
11:57upper 40s is the normal high by uh the weekend here and we're going to be just maybe three four
12:02five degrees below that so again the big story is uh where will the snow set up that's what we're
12:09going to be waiting for uh the first round northern Minnesota but then the second round
12:14as we head into Saturday and Saturday night especially that sets up across central Minnesota
12:21I do think the Twin Cities will stay on the southern edge despite what the European models
12:26machine learning tool and the American model show that little farther south it just makes more sense
12:31with the setup of the temperatures and these two waves that central Minnesota would be more poised
12:36for significant snowfall but two rounds of snow again tonight into Friday and Friday night for
12:42far northern Minnesota in addition to ice uh and then central Minnesota will get a swath of heavy
12:48snow late Saturday into early Sunday and the other thing we are of course watching is the potential
12:54for freezing rain which is not good on the European model brings some of that into even maybe
13:01the St. Cloud area in northern suburbs by Saturday evening Saturday night so this is
13:06uh Saturday evening to Saturday night European model spitting out a quarter to a half inch of
13:11ice accumulation not good NAMM model doing fairly similar um weather service right now keeping it
13:20confined in northeastern Minnesota but be aware that we could be dealing with some freezing rain
13:23too here as we head into uh let's see that would be late Saturday into Saturday night for us
13:31in the Twin Cities sorry I'm on about four hours of sleep here coming on in a red-eye flight but
13:36uh this is the weather service forecast to give you an idea of what they're thinking which lines
13:42up I agree with them pretty much here uh that central Minnesota looks to be the most likely
13:46area to see any significant snowfall Little Falls Brainerd to Duluth with that second round of snow
13:52and then again tonight into tomorrow it'll be that far northern part of the state to see
13:55significant snowfall but either way a messy storm system rain snow and ice and we'll have an update
14:00tomorrow should have a better more clearer picture on what happens with that late Saturday
14:06activity around here