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00:00We can now bring in Peter Zalmayev, director of the Eurasia Democracy Initiative, who joins
00:05us from Kyiv.
00:06Good afternoon.
00:07Thank you very much for joining us on the program today.
00:10What's the mood like where you are with this deal being signed in Saudi Arabia?
00:14Well, I think the mood is pretty much more of the same.
00:18No one in Kyiv believes Vladimir Putin is negotiating in good faith.
00:22And you know, actually, it started to sink in for Donald Trump himself, who has acknowledged
00:27that Vladimir Putin is probably dragging out the time.
00:31You know, he's not really interested in an immediate and genuine ceasefire, far less
00:37a full peace agreement.
00:39You know, so far, what we've seen from Vladimir Putin is that he is able to extract concession
00:45after concession from the American side, and apparently goodwill, you know, lifting of
00:51sanctions that the Trump administration has been talking about, without fully committing
00:57to any genuine concessions on his own.
00:59You can make an argument that the cessation of, you know, war activities in the Black
01:04Sea actually works in Vladimir Putin's favor, because Ukraine has actually engaged in a
01:09very successful asymmetrical warfare, hitting Russian warships in the Black Sea.
01:16And Vladimir Putin is obviously interested in that cessation, probably even more so than
01:20Ukraine, whilst keeping his ability to continue targeting our, you know, urban centers such
01:28as Kyiv a few days ago, such as Kursan, such as Sumy, and such as Odessa.
01:33Peter, it seems that the Trump administration is in a rush to end the war in Ukraine.
01:38I mean, Donald Trump wanted to do it in 24 hours.
01:41That, of course, didn't happen.
01:42But the question is, the question that the Ukrainians are asking, that the Europeans
01:46are asking, is on what terms does this war end?
01:49It seems that an idea that's been floated by the British and the French of this coalition
01:55of the willing to oversee whatever ceasefire does take place isn't going down well in Washington.
02:02We had Steve Whitkoff just a couple of days ago, who called it posture and pose from the Europeans.
02:07Well, Steven Whitkoff, after that mission to Moscow and after his interview with Tucker
02:12Carlson, I start to wonder whether he is the envoy for Donald Trump or if he's the envoy
02:17for Vladimir Putin.
02:19He has repeated word for word, you know, Kremlin's wish list, and now he's denigrating Europe's
02:25potential involvement.
02:27But fair enough.
02:28And, you know, I would have to say that Europe still hasn't gotten its act together when
02:32it comes to Ukraine.
02:34It's talked, it's walked, it's talked the talk, but it hasn't walked the walk.
02:37We keep hearing about these peacekeepers, hundreds of thousands of which will be needed.
02:42But who will pay for that?
02:43And, you know, it's being reported that there's there's a fracturing kind of unity on that
02:48score with Europe, with Viktor Orban of Hungary continuing to play the spoiler.
02:54Who is going to pony up the funds if they haven't even made a decision what to do with
02:58the 300 billion dollars of Russian frozen money?
03:03That would be perfect.
03:04That would be a perfect solution with this.
03:06But they haven't made up their mind on that.
03:08So we're very skeptical that Europe will be finally able to put their money where their
03:14mouth is in time where it would need to help Ukraine.
03:18Peter, I'm glad you watched Steve Whitkoff's interview with Tucker Carlson because he floated
03:22an interesting idea.
03:24He said something about giving Ukraine Article 5 protections without including Ukraine as
03:30a member of NATO.
03:31Would that be something that Ukraine is willing to accept?
03:35Well, I mean, we have to find out what those are, you know, Article 5 protections would
03:40be.
03:41I mean, I think Ukraine is now pretty much reconciled to the fact that it will not be
03:45a member of NATO, at least during the Trump administration.
03:49And that has been made clear.
03:50So we're actually looking and waiting to hear what those protections will be.
03:55So far, what we've heard from the Trump administration has not been satisfactory.
03:58Donald Trump has talked about these commercial agreements with Ukraine, such as controlling
04:03a stake in its, you know, rare earths, for example, or even taking control over its,
04:08you know, power nuclear plants, which are in Russia's hands.
04:11So that's also kind of a nonstarter.
04:13But why would that be a security guarantee?
04:15We have a precedent of 2014 before the takeover of Crimea and the start of the war in Donbass.
04:20There were a whole bunch of Western companies working in those areas.
04:24Did that prevent Putin from aggressing against Ukraine?
04:28Well, we know the answer.
04:30Do you think Vladimir Zelensky has salvaged his relationship with Donald Trump since that
04:35Oval Office blow-up?
04:36Well, I believe it was a kind of a trap that he walked into.
04:43It was not, it's not a matter of salvaging any relationship.
04:46I think it's just a matter of Donald Trump extracting this kind of profuse expressions
04:50of gratitude from each and every leader.
04:53It's probably not even anything personal against Ukraine.
04:56I think that Ukraine will continue to face balls in its court, because it seems like,
05:01you know, Donald Trump seems to be kind of, I think, inclined more towards, you know,
05:06Russia's point of view than Ukraine's point of view.
05:08So unfortunately, that's just a reality we have to deal with.
05:11Peter, because since that meeting which took place in the White House, it seems we have
05:16Europe and the United States doing their own things with how to solve this war in Ukraine.
05:23We have Ukraine that signed on to the ceasefire agreement yesterday, but today we're going
05:28to have Vladimir Zelensky in Paris.
05:30He's going to be meeting with the French president for dinner.
05:32Then tomorrow, Paris is hosting talks on the war in Ukraine.
05:39Has Kyiv done enough to bridge the gap, or should the Europeans do more to get Washington
05:44or to get a seat at the table, which they've tried unsuccessfully to do up until now?
05:49That's a very good question.
05:50I think that Kyiv views Europe as sort of the last stronghold once, and if Donald Trump
05:56finally decides to just let Ukraine get flushed down the toilet.
06:00I'm sorry for that sort of analogy, but it seems to me that, you know, it's a very realistic
06:04scenario that Donald Trump will simply just walk away saying, well, we've tried and, you
06:09know, both sides, Russia and U.S., may blame Ukraine for sabotaging peace talks.
06:14And then it will have to be Europe who will have to step in.
06:17We've heard it times and again, and in these leaked talks, you know, about the plans to
06:24bomb the Houthis in Yemen, I mean, we heard JD Vance talk disparagingly about Europe and
06:32how they, you know, they have to bear the burden for a lot of these crises.
06:37And so that's been the major talking point of the Trump administration.
06:40So that is why, that explains this outreach.
06:43It will sooner or later have to be Europe who have to step in, because once again, imagine
06:47the scenario, Ukraine, you know, loses this war.
06:51We're talking about many more millions of refugees spilling over the borders to Poland
06:56and further across to Germany and France and so on.
07:00Peter, the language has changed out of the White House, of course, since Donald Trump
07:06has come to power.
07:07We had Joe Biden who said that this war would end on Ukraine's terms.
07:13Now we have, it's a lot more stark what's being said from the likes of Steve Whitcoff,
07:19JD Vance, what have you.
07:22Ceding territory isn't going to be an easy sell for the Ukrainian president.
07:26But given the change in Washington, are people there coming to terms with the fact that some
07:33territory will have to be given up, including Crimea?
07:37I think people had actually come to terms with that even before the end of the Biden
07:43administration.
07:44And I think what the Trump administration is either, you know, willingly or not losing
07:50side off is that if the 20 percent plus of territory that Russia is controlling is simply
07:55not sufficient.
07:56Once again, let's not forget the full package of Putin's wishes goes far beyond this territorial
08:02concessions.
08:03He's not interested in this territory.
08:05Much of it is destroyed and has no viable infrastructure.
08:09He wants control over Ukraine's foreign policy.
08:12He wants to have Ukraine's armed forces, you know, downsized to sort of a police force
08:19of several tens of thousands of people.
08:21So that is Vladimir Putin's whole wish list.
08:25So we're not really talking about, you know, territorial concessions per se, because Vladimir
08:30Putin remains fixated on his goal of controlling Ukraine.
08:36And that is what I think Donald Trump and his administration either don't understand
08:40or, you know, prefer not to bother about.
08:45Because as you said, we have people like Steve Whitkoff who are, you know, meeting face to
08:52face with the Russian president and pretty much believing everything he has to say.
08:57That is that is very galling.
08:59And once again, it's the question is, are they being, you know, are they being calmed?
09:05Are they being played?
09:07Whitkoff seems to be a partner of many years of Donald Trump, seems to be an astute businessman.
09:12You would imagine that he wouldn't be so gullible.
09:15But then when he talks about these portraits, you know, being presented by Putin to Trump
09:19and is, you know, this known atheist Vladimir Putin praying.
09:23He prayed with the priest, yes.
09:24After the assassination attempt.
09:27That makes me wonder.
09:29Peters, am I ever going to have to leave you there?
09:30Thank you very much for joining us on the program today.