Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Monday joined Truth Social, a social media platform owned by Trump Media and Technology Group, signalling his close bond with US President Donald Trump.
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00:00So let's raise some of the big questions. Are Trump and Modi on the same page?
00:04Will this Trump-Modi bonhomie really help Indo-US ties? Can Prime Minister Modi and
00:10the Modi government really trust Donald Trump? Are Trump and Modi made for each other?
00:16There's some of the questions that I'm going to raise tonight. I'm joined by Meera Shankar,
00:20former envoy to the United States, KC Singh, former Secretary, MEA, and Richard Russo,
00:25Senior Advisor, CSIS, in Washington. Appreciate all of you joining us on that. I want to get
00:32each of you to explain to me how you see it. And I want to go first to Washington,
00:36to you, Richard Russo. How do you see from a Washington lens the manner in which Prime
00:41Minister Modi is reaching out to Trump at every available opportunity? He's even now joined and
00:46followed Trump's social media site, Truth Social. Is this the Prime Minister, in a way,
00:53seeing Donald Trump as an ally, as a friend, as a comrade?
01:00Well, we saw last time that President Trump was in office, that the two leaders
01:04were able to get some pretty significant things done together. I think from India's vantage point,
01:08they look at the United States as an important security partner, as the most important economic
01:12partner. And when you've got a president that lashes out against friends and allies, sometimes
01:18difficult to kind of understand what might happen the next day. I think India has been
01:21working extra hard to try to make sure that this relationship, more than most other relationships
01:26in the United States, has remained relatively stable. You've got a Quad meeting happening
01:31just this week in New Delhi, of course, a range of cabinet officials, the head of state meeting.
01:36So I think India has navigated turbulent waters in Washington far better than most other countries
01:41have so far, because both countries have a lot on the table they want to continue to accomplish.
01:45But is the secret to Donald Trump to flatter him? The prime minister in his podcast was
01:52full of admiration for Mr. Trump, called him a man of courage. Is that part of the way to reach
01:57out to Trump's mind or heart, is to constantly flatter him and speak about him in admiring and
02:04glowing terms? It never hurts. But at the same time, we saw in India's budget, where they moved
02:10on customs duties in areas the United States cared about, where there's been talks about India
02:15increasing more U.S.-made defense equipment as something that might be tangible this year and
02:21in the coming four years. So flattery certainly is on the mix, but you've got real concrete things
02:26that both sides have put on the table that would hopefully break out new directions and unlock
02:31commercial opportunities and security opportunities. So it's a mix, flattery and concrete
02:36outcomes. So we'll see how many concrete outcomes they can develop as the year comes up.
02:41I'll come to those concrete outcomes in a moment. But Meera Shankar, let me for a moment focus on
02:45what is being called the chemistry between the two leaders. We saw the prime minister give
02:51a three-hour podcast interview to someone who seemed to be part of the Elon Musk right-wing
02:57ecosystem, someone who's constantly also praising Donald Trump, that's Mr. Friedman.
03:04Do you get a sense that this is personal chemistry works in diplomacy, that the
03:09prime minister constantly speaking about Mr. Trump in such glowing terms will actually work?
03:16Well, to some extent, it does help. It can't harm if the personal relationship is good.
03:24And there is an ideological affinity between the two, which was visible during Trump's first term.
03:33Now during Trump's second term, he's come with a far more determined agenda
03:42on trade and tariffs and getting other countries to contribute their share and so on
03:49an America first platform. So a mere personal goodwill is not going to cut it.
03:57It will have to be a mix of how you actually get concrete outcomes, as the previous speaker said.
04:06But from India's point of view, those concrete outcomes should not be on the basis of accepting
04:15the US demands in total, you have to have a mixture of firmness and flexibility,
04:23because the US is an important partner, they're an important strategic partner,
04:28they are our largest economic market, our IT companies have grown on the strength of
04:33linkage to the US market. So there's a lot at stake for India. But at the same time,
04:40there are issues which can be troublesome for India, like opening up agriculture wholesale,
04:46when you have subsistence farmers, who have barely two and a half acre farms,
04:52they can't compete with the big, you know, commercial giants in the US. So I think that
04:59India has to also do its homework, have its own demands on the table, also have a sense of where
05:08it's going to dig its heels in, and where it can show flexibility. How is it that the two countries
05:16can negotiate in a way, which is mutually beneficial, and not at the cost of one country?
05:24Let me take that to you, KC Singh, because, look, the Prime Minister was pretty honest enough to
05:30say in that interview, look, I talk India first, Donald Trump talks America first. Do you think
05:35the twin can meet given the manner in which Trump in the last few weeks, has targeted the world,
05:41including India on high tariffs, specifically on more than one occasion mentioned India,
05:47as having extremely restrictive tariffs? Do you believe therefore that America first and
05:53nation first can actually merge? Or is this just atmospherics at the moment?
06:00Look, those are slogans. And when it comes to substance, I think it's a question of yes,
06:04marrying, or seeing where you can compromise and where you can't compromise. I think so far
06:10government of India has handled Trump well. We've seen the multiple ways global leaders have
06:15handled him. There is Zelensky, where he openly contradicted them in the Oval Room and got kicked
06:21out of White House. There is the French President who largely agreed with him, but basically used
06:28flattery and a combination of this thing, but also correcting facts as he went along. And India has
06:34done basically has tried to avoid any confrontation with him. And that's why even when those
06:41so called illegal Indians came in chains back to India on American military planes,
06:47when there was the example of Columbia sending their own planes and refusing American military
06:52planes to bring their citizens back, India was quiet, we've not protested, we didn't say anything.
06:59So which means we decided that let's not, to the extent possible, we can make any issue, which
07:08immediately provokes Trump, and then he gets deviated from the basic path. So I think the
07:14thing is, they realize that the thing that he continuously raises is tariffs,
07:19though he misstates the facts on that. So you don't contradict him, you engage his team,
07:25and you see how you can work out a modus vivendi, an arrangement. For instance, he says,
07:30reduce the duties on cars, you can do it, it doesn't mean automatically American cars would
07:35sell here. You can't just reduce the duty on Tesla coming in, you will have to then look at
07:41your own electric vehicle production in the country. So I think devil lies in the detail.
07:48And when they sit down and do it, I think buying time is not a bad idea, because sooner or later,
07:53Trump will start getting entrenched in the larger geopolitical mess that he's creating,
08:00with Europe trying to, you know, create self-sufficiency, self-dependence, and making
08:07sure that they reduce their dependence on America militarily or otherwise. And that's why you're
08:13also doing a free trade agreement speed has been speeded up with Europe too. So you have to bat
08:20differently. It's multiple things happening at the same time. But I think India so far,
08:25the attempt is don't provoke him, even if he does something, even if he gives you a slight slap.
08:31You know, the question is, don't provoke him. There are those, of course, Richard Russo,
08:34who see from an Indian perspective, at times, a certain uncertainty in what lies ahead in dealing
08:41with Donald Trump. There's also the Musk factor. You know, Elon Musk has already took a already
08:47virtually tied up starling with the Ambani's and with the mythos. So you've got a belief that maybe
08:56India is extending an olive branch, not just to Donald Trump, but to Elon Musk as well.
09:01Again, it comes back to do you think that with Donald Trump, that personal chemistry works?
09:06Or is he someone so unpredictable and disruptive that whatever you do, you don't know what tomorrow
09:12brings? Unpredictable in terms of the day to day things that the administration might announce,
09:18but there is some level of predictability. You know, we know this wave that basically brought
09:23him to office. American communities that had felt left behind because of globalization, that fear,
09:30that unfettered immigration, illegal immigration, largely from southern parts of the Americas,
09:37as well as from Canada, have been part of the damaging factors that you've got,
09:42rampant drug abuse in the United States. And again, a lot of that comes in across our borders,
09:46and some of that originates in China. So you know some of the factors that the president
09:52views that he took on that got him elected to office. And I would say, if you keep your eye
09:56on those factors, and India has done that pretty effectively by talking about encouraging Indian
10:01companies to invest in the United States, about accommodating industrial tariffs in some of the
10:05sectors like autos and motorcycles, which they've been talking about, that hit on the communities
10:10that have seen basically the evacuation of a lot of manufacturing. So you know, again, the day to
10:15day stuff, you're right. We don't know. It's just a tweet every single morning that we got to follow
10:19here in Washington to know where the president's head's at and the specific policy initiatives.
10:23But we also know the big drivers, and as long as you keep your eyes on those and aim to try to
10:28appease the president in small ways that also hopefully in some of those ways work well for
10:32India, at least in the short term, if not the long term, that's the good way to stay on the
10:37right side and try to continue to achieve gains in this partnership. You know, I'm going to play
10:43some images, Meera Shankar, of, for example, a young Indian student who found suddenly that
10:50she was self-deported. And that is, you know, some liberal activists feel that this is classic
10:58Trump police state that has been created, which is driving away people who are seen, he claims,
11:06to be pro-Hamas. He even, there are suggestions that as many as 40 countries are on a watch list
11:12when it comes to visas. Do you believe India should be taking these cases up, whether it is
11:19the handcuffing of those who were brought back, illegal immigrants, whether it's the case of
11:24the young Indian student from Columbia University who found herself suddenly self-deporting? Should
11:30India be taking up those cases or simply at the moment focusing on Mr. Trump as a transactional
11:36president and just do business with him, see specific outcomes without getting caught in any
11:42battles that may provoke him? Yeah, I would agree with that. I would feel that really you have to
11:50learn how to handle Mr. Trump because he's someone who has such a personalized way of
11:58policymaking that the establishment in Washington is now entirely dependent on the priorities
12:07and decisions that Trump sets rather than feeding from the bottom up. It's a top-down system.
12:17So, within that top-down system, it's very important that you learn how to handle Trump
12:24and many of the other issues are not really India-specific just as trade tariffs are not
12:32India-specific. It's part of his key priorities in terms of his support base in America
12:43and how he thinks he can steer America again to greatness. This is his vision that this is what
12:53he thinks it's going to take to make America great again. Now, it may or may not work and many people
12:59also question whether this kind of chaos which the American system is actually going through right now
13:10because of the sackings of people, then the courts overruling many of those decisions and
13:16nobody knowing where the final decision rests because it may go all the way to the Supreme
13:22Court. So, it introduces an element of uncertainty not only for the U.S.'s partners but also within
13:33U.S. society itself and what the outcome of all this is going to be at the end of
13:42President Trump's term, we don't really know. It's his vision of how he thinks he can
13:50steer America back to greatness, impose tariffs, get back manufacturing, reduce immigration,
13:58impose tariffs on partners who he thinks have been pre-loading which may not be the case but
14:06these are his views. So, you're saying for example when an Indian student gets self-deported,
14:12we don't raise our voice, when immigrants are seen with Indian immigrants, illegal immigrants
14:18come back home chained, handcuffed, we don't raise our voice. You're saying what happens then to the
14:25sort of moral standing that India was seen to have in diplomacy, is that to be forgotten because
14:31you're dealing with the transactional president? Let me qualify that. If these issues are raised,
14:39they should be raised in private, in government dialogue and not with a megaphone. With this
14:46government, this kind of public diplomacy I think would be counterproductive. Okay,
14:52that's a very important point you're saying. I'm sure that our concerns on the illegal immigrants
15:00being sent in chains have been conveyed to the government of the US but on the Palestinian
15:09student, I mean on the student who was supporting Palestine, the Indian student,
15:17I would just draw your attention to the fact that India's own policies with regard to demonstrations,
15:25pro-Palestine demonstrations here have been pretty similar, not deportations but many people have
15:34actually paid a price. Okay, I just want to understand from you KC Singh, somewhere
15:40are Trump and Modi made for each other? Both populist strongmen, both with this
15:46reaching out to their respective constituencies as nationalists taking on the previous liberal
15:53elites and therefore their ideological similarities, do they bring them together
15:58or are they two people who are so strong-willed that sooner or later there could be a clash?
16:03What's more likely? Look, there is a convergence of the far-right leaders. Don't forget that
16:10Trump had invited the Hungarian president, the Chilean president, people who were far-right,
16:16two or three leaders he had invited and he's been attacking the so-called post-World War II
16:22liberal order which had been created for which created a set of rules for
16:29global international relations and how countries deal with each other. Now, very clearly that is
16:35being replaced internationally and domestically by a hegemonic order and that's why he says he
16:41keeps calling Canada the 51st state, he wants Greenland, he wants Panama. So, India up to a
16:47point as Ambassador Shankar said, for instance on Palestine, even this far-right, a far-right government
16:53doesn't shed many tears over that. So, it doesn't trouble them too much but what happens is that
16:58these things have a tendency to follow their own logic. For instance, ICE now, the immigration people
17:04are beginning to go after even green card holders, those who have been spending time outside the
17:10country but are not maintaining a permanent residence and there will be a large number of
17:15Indians related to the diaspora, older people who come here in the winter then go back, they've been
17:22attacking them, they go there and literally telling them, we will arrest you unless you
17:25surrender your green card. Now, once this madness sets afoot and the xenophobia is
17:30there, you'll see that you can't have a dividing line say, okay, it's just a student who protested
17:36because there was a pro-Palestine protest. This will have its own logic. So, at some stage,
17:44India cannot keep quiet if this does not end. Similarly, in the hegemonic order, will you just sit
17:50out while Europeans come together, Europeans say that look, we have to create a new kind of NATO,
17:58a new defensive system or will you start joining that or being more sympathetic? Look, in the same
18:04interview that Prime Minister has given, he's been extra soft on China. There is a reason for that
18:11and the reason and the Chinese are also probably also realized that they are the main target, they
18:15are in list number one and therefore, the Chinese realize that they would like to
18:20certainly reach out to India and try normalizing relations again because you can't take on America,
18:26you can't take on India, you can't take on the whole world. So, there is a realignment taking
18:30place all over the world. So far, what India has done is you play it safe, you reopen some of the
18:38old relationships you had so that you have multiple choices. If Trump's rearrangement
18:44of the world goes haywire. Yeah, I know, I take your point. I just want a final word, therefore,
18:52peg to that, Richard Russo, that you've got the Chinese equation. We saw the Prime Minister
18:59speaking about the historical ties between India and China in that same interview. Is Trump going
19:06to balance India and China? Do you see the Donald Trump regime dealing with India and China in both
19:14similar transactional manners, which is the priority for him? I don't think China is going
19:19to be as transactional. You may see some transactions, certainly if I'm sitting in
19:23Beijing. Again, thinking back to some of the drivers that brought President Trump to office,
19:28you know, for China to announce a major investment program in some of those communities,
19:32you know, there are steps I think China can take that might momentarily appease the president.
19:36But at the same time, as we saw last time, President Trump was in office and this time,
19:40when you look at a lot of his senior appointees that are very hawkish on China,
19:44you know, that's a big part of the reason that we double down the relationship with India.
19:48You know, with India, certainly there's transactions, but the relationship is strategic
19:51and positive in a lot of ways. You may have some trade squabbles, but I'm sure you'll see
19:56big steps in the right direction in terms of security partnership. And with China,
20:00you know, it was the first meeting President Trump hosted the day after the inauguration,
20:04was a Quad Minister Summit, another Quad meeting happening this week itself,
20:08engagement with India, engagement with Japan, Australia. You know, this is all trying to make
20:13sure that we've got a lot of friendships across Asia, just in case China's belligerent approach,
20:17as we've seen to the neighborhood, continues. So you'll see transactions with India and
20:21transactions with China. But I think the deeper drivers build the partnership with India and
20:26continue to build positioning with friendships around China, just in case things go haywire.
20:32These, I think, are core drivers that we're going to see all throughout the next four years.
20:36Okay, let's leave it there. I think we've got a sense of where this Trump-Modi relationship
20:42could be heading. There's always uncertainty, uncharted waters when you're dealing with
20:47Donald Trump. But clearly, Prime Minister Modi seems to have found a way of reaching out to
20:53the U.S. President. How successful he will be in that endeavor will depend on the actual outcomes,
21:00not just on the atmospherics and the chemistry.
21:03Appreciate my guests joining us here on our top talking point.