Tropical Cyclone Alfred’s crossing could last 6 to 9 hours, the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) predicts. Video current 9:00am AEST 7 March 2025. Video by BoM
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00:00Tropical Cyclone Alfred continues its westerly track towards the south-east Queensland coast,
00:05expected to make landfall during tomorrow morning.
00:08Let's take a look at the details now as of Friday morning.
00:12The track map issued at 9 o'clock this morning shows our Tropical Cyclone warning extending
00:17from Double Island Point down to areas just north of Grafton, so still including the Sunshine Coast,
00:22Brisbane, the Gold Coast and the northern rivers of New South Wales. Tropical Cyclone Alfred is
00:27still a Category 2 system sitting over 150 km to the east of Brisbane. It's quite slow moving
00:33though, so its position isn't changing much from one track map to the next. In the past 24 hours
00:38though, we've certainly seen the rain ramping up through north-east New South Wales and south-east
00:42Queensland. Here are some of our top totals to 8 o'clock this morning. Now it's worth noting that
00:47a few of these locations, particularly through north-east New South Wales, have seen over 200
00:52mm of rainfall, on top of rainfall totals of over 200 mm from the day before. That means our
00:57two-day rainfall totals are already well over 400 mm for some locations, particularly through
01:03north-east New South Wales. Similarly, we've seen our wind gusts increasing overnight. Not just the
01:10wind gusts in fact, but the mean wind speeds, so the general conditions. Around the Gold Coast,
01:15we've seen a wind gust of 100 km an hour with very very windy conditions throughout the whole night.
01:21We're expecting to see this wind and rain increasing through today. Looking at our radar
01:26now, we can see the bands of showers and storms pushing through north-east New South Wales and
01:30south-east Queensland and wrapping around that cyclone system. As I said, we're going to see
01:35that wet weather only increasing, and the winds as well, particularly through this afternoon,
01:40with that coastal crossing forecast for tomorrow morning. So let's take a look at what we can
01:45expect for the rest of today. We're expecting tropical cyclone Alfred to continue moving
01:50very slowly towards the south-east Queensland coast. It'll stay as a Category 2 system today,
01:56bringing that rain and wind further onshore. The rain, first of all, is expected to be widespread
02:01through north-east New South Wales and south-east Queensland. The heaviest totals, these dark blue
02:06and black areas on this map, are expected to the south of the system, but are possible anywhere
02:12along this stretch of coast. Similarly, with our winds, we are expecting to see very windy
02:17conditions and damaging wind gusts anywhere through north-east New South Wales and south-east
02:22Queensland, but the strongest gusts are likely to be wrapping around the cyclone system.
02:29Our waves have already been enormous over the past couple of days. In fact, we've seen a record
02:33high wave at Brisbane, and we're expecting those very large seas, surf and swell, to continue today.
02:39Now, we've seen a lot of vision, a lot of images of coastal erosion and local inundation along
02:45our beaches through south-east Queensland and north-east New South Wales. We are expecting that
02:49to continue today. The waves will be huge, and they may act unpredictably. They may come at
02:55odd intervals and take you unaware if you're just trying to get a look at the surf.
03:00As we go into tomorrow morning, the system will make its crossing,
03:04likely somewhere between Noosa and Coolangatta. We expect the system to remain at Category 2
03:10intensity once it reaches those outer islands, but it may weaken back to a Category 1 cyclone
03:16before it reaches the mainland. One way or the other though, a Category 1 cyclone or a Category 2
03:21system is still going to bring the heavy rain and wind effects that we've been forecasting.
03:26Taking a closer look at that crossing now, as I mentioned, we're expecting that to occur
03:30somewhere between Noosa and Coolangatta, most likely close to Moreton Bay. Now, at this point
03:36in time, we are expecting that crossing to occur through tomorrow morning, but as it's going to
03:40reach those offshore islands before it reaches the mainland, that crossing time may last for a
03:45significant period. It won't be like a thunderstorm moving through, which lasts for 20 minutes or an
03:50hour and then blows away. This is going to be a prolonged period with bursts of extremely heavy
03:54rain and extremely strong winds for on the order of six, eight, possibly even nine hours. We may
04:00see some lulls through that period, but don't grow complacent because the event is likely to take a
04:05long time for it to be over. It's going to be very noisy, it's going to be very wet, and it could last
04:11for a number of hours through tomorrow, as I've said. So, what are we expecting for the rest of
04:16the weekend for tomorrow around that crossing and going into Sunday as well? Well, the heavy rainfall
04:22and strong winds will continue. This severe weather warning is current already today for that damaging
04:28to locally destructive wind gust risk and the heavy to intense rainfall. It covers much of southeast
04:33Queensland and northeast New South Wales, and we're expecting to see the heavy rain and strong
04:38winds through these areas through much of the weekend. Now, wind gusts up to 120 kilometres an
04:43hour could be widespread through these areas, just remembering that we've only seen up to 100 k's an
04:48hour at the Gold Coast. 120 k's an hour is even stronger and even more dangerous. Close to the
04:53time of crossing, we may see wind gusts up to 150 kilometres an hour, close to the core of that
04:59system. Similarly, the rainfall is likely to be widespread through these warning areas, not just
05:04today but going into tomorrow and the rest of the weekend as well. With six hourly rainfall totals
05:09in excess of 100 millimetres likely, 24-hour rainfall totals will really ramp up closer to
05:15that time of crossing. We may see those 24-hour totals hit three, even 400 millimetres or more,
05:21around that cyclone crossing time and the location of the crossing as well.
05:26We have significant flood products still in place, flood watches and some flood warnings
05:31for rivers which have already been upgraded to that flood warning in expectation of the rain
05:35that's to come. Now, that's mainly a few rivers through northeast New South Wales,
05:40sitting at moderate to major flooding, but notably the Logan River in southeast Queensland
05:44has already got a major flood warning current in expectation of those rivers rising through
05:50the weekend as the cyclone rainfall moves through the catchments.
05:56We've still got a coastal hazards warning in place from Double Island Point all the way down
06:00to Smoky Cape in New South Wales. Now, this is flagging that continued risk of damaging surf and
06:04abnormally high tides. The coastal erosion, those really high tides, are expected to continue through
06:10the coming days as the system approaches and then crosses the coast. Anywhere along the stretch of
06:16coast is likely to see those incredibly dangerous conditions continuing. Winds, rain and surf and
06:24swell are expected to increase through the later part of today ahead of that coastal crossing
06:28tomorrow. You can find the latest forecasts, warnings and track maps via the Bureau's website
06:34and via our weather app. Stay safe and we'll catch you in the next update.