Tropical Cyclone Alfred is likely to stay several hundred kilometres offshore according to the BoM. Video by the Bureau of Meteorology, 11am AEST February 24, 2025.
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00:00Tropical Cyclone Alfred is a Category 1 tropical cyclone
00:04about 930 kilometres northeast of Cairns over the Coral Sea.
00:08Alfred was named as a tropical cyclone on Sunday afternoon
00:12and hasn't really moved far since,
00:14continuing to be a Category 1 system
00:16and we can see it very clearly on the satellite imagery here.
00:19Underneath this broad mass of cloud and thunderstorms,
00:22we have got the Category 1 CC at the moment.
00:25If you're wondering what the number means,
00:27the category of a tropical cyclone
00:29is directly related to how strong the winds are,
00:32which absolutely whistle around the centre
00:35of the tropical cyclone.
00:37In the past 24 hours, we haven't seen much intensification.
00:40It's still a Category 1 system,
00:42which is the lowest of all the categories,
00:44but we do expect to see Alfred intensify through the day.
00:47Perhaps even later on Monday,
00:49it could become a Category 2 tropical cyclone
00:52and then we'll continue to see intensification
00:54tomorrow on Tuesday,
00:56where we could see a Category 3 tropical cyclone.
01:00That's classified as a severe tropical cyclone
01:02at that point, meaning the winds are absolutely racing
01:06around the centre of Alfred.
01:08It is likely to stay several hundred kilometres offshore,
01:11probably at least about 700 or so,
01:13for the next several days, meaning those strongest winds
01:16and most of the rainfall will be out over the open waters
01:19of the Coral Sea,
01:20but it will still be influencing the coastline.
01:23Strong gusty conditions are expected
01:24along the Queensland coast
01:26and we've already started to see that,
01:27with many places gusting 60 to 70 kilometres an hour.
01:31A few showers will impact eastern parts of Queensland
01:33this week as well and we also expect a notable increase
01:37in the size of the waves across the east coast,
01:40particularly on Thursday and Friday.
01:42So if you like to get out on the water
01:44or you live in a low-lying coastal part of Queensland,
01:47do keep up to date with your local coastal waters forecast
01:51because some of these waves could be powerful
01:53and potentially damaging.
01:55If you're not right along the east coast though,
01:57we won't see much of an impact
01:58from the tropical cyclone here,
02:00with a relatively settled week for central Queensland,
02:02mostly sunny conditions, just a touch cooler than average,
02:05with the wind coming up from the south.
02:08Now what happens beyond Thursday?
02:10That's where there's real interest in the system
02:11because there are still a few scenarios
02:13which remain possible,
02:15including the risk that tropical cyclone Alfred
02:17veers closer to the Queensland coast late this week
02:20or perhaps more likely during the weekend.
02:23It could approach or even cross the coast
02:26anywhere from around the Herbert and Lower Burdekin
02:28down to the Wide Bay or potentially even further south,
02:31so there are many people throughout eastern Queensland
02:34that ought to stay up to date this week
02:35with the latest developments and movements
02:38of this tropical cyclone.
02:39There is also a chance that Alfred just continues
02:42on its way southeast,
02:43bringing the severe weather down into the Tasman Sea
02:45and sparing the worst of those conditions
02:47for eastern parts of Queensland.
02:50I would like to finish with what we currently see
02:52as the most likely track,
02:53but of course this could change.
02:56We've got the Tropical Cyclone Forecast Team
02:57working around the clock at the moment
02:59and as they monitor Alfred and its developments,
03:01the track will be updated
03:03when we get the latest information available,
03:05but currently we see it most likely
03:07that Alfred tracks almost straight southwards
03:09for several days through this week
03:11and then during the weekend,
03:13just starts to duck a little bit closer
03:15to the Queensland coast.
03:16So the weekend and early next week
03:18is looking to be the key time.
03:20I really just want to hammer home that message.
03:22For the next several days,
03:23the best thing you can do is stay up to date
03:25with the forecast for this system
03:27and in particular, its forecast track map,
03:30which can be found on the Tropical Cyclone tab
03:32available from the Bureau of Meteorology website homepage.
03:35Thanks very much for watching.
03:36Have a good week.