*Luisa Gonzalez and Daniel Noboa, neck and neck in presidential race
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00:00Welcome back to From the South, and we now go back to Ecuador with days to go before
00:16the election in the country, and we now welcome Juan Carlos Valareso, his chair of the International
00:22Relations Department at the Catholic University of Ecuador.
00:25Thank you, Juan Carlos, for joining us here in From the South.
00:30Thank you very much for having me.
00:32So Juan Carlos, tell us, what do we know at this point about what's coming on Sunday?
00:39Well, what we do know for sure is that this may end up in a runoff between the two top
00:47candidates.
00:49There are over 16 candidates running for the presidential election, however it is well
00:56known that there are two that are at the top, Daniel Novoa and the contestant contender
01:02Elisa González.
01:06So just to get a little bit deeper into what is going on in Ecuador, we have been seeing
01:12a year that was marked by different sort of crisis, and insecurity is one of the main
01:18topics in the country.
01:20So tell us, how does that play into this election?
01:24We've been seeing different measures taken by President Novoa in the last few days.
01:29How do you see this impacting the results on Sunday?
01:35I consider that this is the definite topic that will determine who people vote for, right?
01:43I think it's very important, the fact that we analyze how the candidates have addressed
01:50the issue of insecurity on the part of Daniel Novoa, we see a continuation of a policy that
01:56has proven not to be that effective, right?
02:00The militarization of the conflict and the problem has turned out into more violence.
02:06There's now evidence that the criminal organizations have become stronger and they are now
02:13more present all over the country.
02:15So apparently his approach has not resulted in the expected results.
02:22In addition to that, the proposals that Elisa González gave are not that clear regarding
02:29how to control the problem with insecurity and drug trafficking.
02:34Her speech resembles a lot to the speech from the Revolución Ciudadana's era 10, 15
02:42years ago.
02:43So in my view, I think it also needs to adapt to the current demands of the people.
02:49We have to consider that there are a number of people that are undecided and still haven't
02:54made up their mind about who to vote for.
02:58So we are trying to, just day before the elections, bring to our international audience just the
03:03key topics to understand the situation in Ecuador before this polls.
03:09So the energy crisis has also been on the news, both nationally and internationally.
03:15So I wanted to ask you, what is the situation at the moment in this regard?
03:19And again, how could this impact the results on Sunday?
03:25Well, I think what Ecuador went through in the last year or so, with the blackouts and
03:35the lack of energy in different parts of the country due to climate change and stuff, but
03:41also I would agree with many that consider that it is also a mismanagement of the resources,
03:48of that planning of the issue.
03:52How Daniel Navarro handled it, I think, was very reactive.
03:57I don't think it was propositive.
04:00I don't think it was proactive in terms of looking at different solutions, and the ones
04:05that were taken seem to have cut the problem, but not to the root, because the engineers'
04:15Association has already said that it is very likely that we'll have blackouts again in
04:22April.
04:24The problem here is a very complex one, because we need energy, we need different sources,
04:30alternative sources of energy as well, and that's something that they need to consider.
04:35And from what you are saying, I gather that one of the key aspects to get into and analyze
04:42what's happening on Sunday has to do with how the people evaluate how the current president
04:49has dealt with this sort of crisis in the country.
04:52So of course, Ecuador is at an exceptional mandate at the moment, because actually Luisa
04:58González and also Daniel Navarro faced each other just a couple of years ago to end what
05:05was Lasso's term.
05:07So this situation may be repeated on Sunday.
05:10How does this moment compare to that one in which, of course, Daniel Navarro was the winner?
05:16And how could what you were saying in terms of the evaluation of this short mandate come
05:22to play at what will be a new edition of that poll?
05:27Well, I think you're totally right.
05:32A lot of people are evaluating now Daniel Navarro's actions as a president, and many
05:38are disenchanted with what he proposed and what he did.
05:41In fact, we see that he still has a very strong base of supporters.
05:46In fact, he leads all of the polls previous to last week that were officially over.
05:54And it says a lot as well about the bases that support Luisa González, which is also
06:03a very strong base, but also with the context of supporting Rafael Correa, right?
06:10So we see here a polarization of support.
06:13However, what's grown in the last year, I think it's the number of people that are undecided.
06:19This will be the determining factor to see whether Daniel Navarro or Luisa González
06:25end up in the first place.
06:27Many speculate that this will be a victory in the first ballot of the election.
06:34I highly doubt that, but we'll see because, as you know, with the recent elections in
06:40the U.S. as well, polls are really not to be trusted that much.
06:46Excellent.
06:47So thank you so much, Juan Carlos Valares.
06:50So we were talking about the elections that are coming on Sunday.
06:53It's a pleasure to have you here in From the South.
06:57Thank you very much for having me.