This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 05/02/2025. A Scandinavian high pressure will bring easterly winds across the UK, but is it a beast from the east, or is it just a colder spell? Bringing you this 10 day outlook is Alex Deakin.
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You may also enjoy:
– Deep dive in-depth forecasts https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGVVqeJodR_ZGnhyYdlEpdYrjZ-Pmj2rt
– Podcasts exploring weather and climate https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGVVqeJodR_brL5mcfsqI4cu42ueHttv0
– Daily weather forecasts https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGVVqeJodR_Zew9xGAqYVtGjYHau-E2yL
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NewsTranscript
00:00Welcome to the Met Office 10-day trend. Not much gets the meteorological community, particularly
00:06as Somantics, as excited as an easterly in February. And that will be the dominant feature
00:12through the next 10 days. But as we shall see, not all easterlies are the same. Not
00:17much sign of an easterly high in the sky as we start this forecast period. These are the
00:22winds high up the jet stream. They're pretty active and pushing low pressure systems up
00:29between Iceland and Greenland. To the south of that, we've got high pressure sitting across
00:34the UK. What'll happen over the next day or so is it all shifts further north. The jet,
00:39if anything, intensifies, pushing more lows up to the north. The high pressure also ambles
00:45across up into Scandinavia, where it kind of sets up home and is likely to live for
00:51much of next week. But we're not necessarily interested in this arm of the jet, which is,
00:57as I say, pretty active. But you'll notice that actually it does dive back further south
01:03down across the UK. We haven't got the pink colours here, which means it's not as strong.
01:08But nevertheless, it is strong enough, this little dip in it, to maybe generate an area
01:13of low pressure down across France that will push northwards and mix things up a little
01:19bit as we head into the weekend. As it gradually moves northwards, this little area of low
01:25pressure, it will introduce certainly much more clouds, but also increasingly we will
01:30see some wet weather from this low, particularly across these eastern counties of England.
01:35That's all to come at the weekend. Before we get there, if we rewind to Thursday, there's
01:40the high sitting right over us, pretty much allowing a frosty start to Thursday, but then
01:45generally speaking, a sparkling day of sunshine for much of the country. It's going to be
01:49a fine winter's day. Yes, a little chilly early on, could be some mist and fog early
01:53on. As that low starts to push northwards, though, the winds will start to pick up across
01:58the south and certainly the cloud will increase through Thursday, Thursday night. And then,
02:03yes, by the time we get to Friday, quite a lot of clouds smothering England. Still, plenty
02:08of bright weather further west with the winds coming in from the east, West Wales, Northern
02:12Ireland, Western Scotland, going to do all right for sunshine over the coming days. But
02:17those winds picking up, they're likely to bring a few showers. Those showers, mostly
02:22of rain, but there's the old fleck of white in there. We could see a few snow flurries.
02:27Temperatures, well, they're going to be low for the time of year, certainly across the
02:31south, a few degrees below average. And crucially, that wind is picking up. So, quite a significant
02:37wind chill developing across southern counties of England and South Wales through Friday.
02:43This is how it will feel in that wind, barely much above freezing, a little higher further
02:48north with some sunshine. The winds a bit lighter here, not feeling too bad at all in
02:51Western Scotland and Northern Ireland. Not just the wind, but also the increasing cloud
02:56with a few showers coming in here as we go through the course of Friday, which are likely
03:02to pep up more. The low pressure edging further north. You can see the cloud and the rain
03:05spiraling around it. And look at that, a bit more in the way of wet weather coming into
03:09eastern counties by the time we get to Saturday. Again, despite the cold conditions, most of
03:15this will still be rain, but there's a little bit of white mixed in there still. So, again,
03:20a little bit of snow is possible. Certainly, some sleety conditions are likely. Further
03:25west and further north, it stays generally dry with those clear skies, hard frost likely
03:30across Scotland and Northern Ireland through the weekend. The wet weather tending to fizzle
03:34out as the low kind of breaks up as we head into Sunday. But nevertheless, quite a cold,
03:39grey, dank weekend across these eastern counties. Temperatures still only 6 or 7 Celsius and
03:45again add on that wind and it will feel much closer to freezing. So, yeah, it is going
03:51to be chilly, but are we going to see any wintry weather, any sleet and snow? Well,
03:56as we've seen, most of that precipitation from the low pressure is likely to be rain,
04:01but we could see some snow flurries here and there. Now, this is the freezing level, basically
04:07how high up through the sky you've got to go before you get to zero Celsius. And it's
04:13an indication of where we could see some snow falling. You can see the lowest freezing
04:18level, those grey colours, 200 metres down across parts of the southeast. That's on Friday.
04:23So, when we see those odd showers coming in, we could easily see a little bit of sleet
04:28and snow mixed in. Notice the freezing level way up there across northern parts of Scotland.
04:34As we go through Friday night, what we'll see is the air, the colder air spreading more
04:39widely across England and Wales, that freezing level dropping down right across England and
04:44Wales. But remember, for most places, it's still going to be dry. So, for snow, you need
04:50two things. You need to be cold, but you also need that moisture. And for many places, it's
04:54going to be dry. And by the time we get to Saturday, when we have that rain mix coming
04:59in across these eastern areas, notice the freezing level has risen somewhat. So, yeah,
05:04it's kind of on the cusp, but we suspect at this stage, most of the wet weather across
05:08the east is going to be sleet, rain, maybe a little bit of snow on some higher routes.
05:13Not expecting it to cause huge amounts of disruption. Something to watch, but at this
05:18stage, we're not expecting huge amounts of snowfall as that low pressure heads north
05:23through the weekend. What about beyond that? Well, that little low kind of fizzles out
05:29and into next week. It's all about this area of high pressure building across Scandinavia.
05:35As the high sits in here with the winds going clockwise, draws in that easterly wind. That
05:40is going to be a feature of the weather through the weekend developing and then sticking around
05:45for a good chunk of next week. Now, that easterly wind is going to bring colder conditions,
05:50but it doesn't look exceptionally cold. And there's a couple of reasons for that. If you
05:55follow the isobars, well, they actually show that the winds are going to be coming up a
06:01little bit from the south. So, yes, they're going around that area of high pressure, but
06:05they're dipping south before they come across the UK. And that is quite important. It means
06:10it will be quite so cold. That's one of the reasons. The other reason is the air over
06:15here just isn't as cold as it would normally be. Now, let me take you back to 2018, the
06:22so-called beast from the east. And when we had that occur late February into March, this
06:28was the pressure pattern. So remarkably similar on the face of it with high pressure sitting
06:32over Scandinavia and the isobars pointing to the east. That's where our wind was coming
06:37from. But if we zoom in a little bit, you can track the isobars and these ones are pointing
06:42a little further north. The air was coming in directly from Siberia, whereas now if we
06:48fast forward to the current setup, those isobars do take that detour. So the air is drifting
06:54a little further south compared to what it did in 2018. So that's one reason why it won't
07:00be quite as cold. Another reason is the air sitting across Siberia, northern parts of
07:06Poland, up across into the Baltic states just isn't as cold. This is a map from NOAA showing
07:13where we've got snow and ice lying across the northern hemisphere. I'll spin it around
07:18to make it a bit more obvious. There's the UK. And you can see where we've got snow lying
07:22on the ground. Yes, across Russia. But so head away from Russia. And there isn't much
07:26of it lying on the ground across Ukraine or Poland. Not certainly not as much as we would
07:32expect at this time of year. And we can show that on this map here. This is showing the
07:38snow anomalies again. I'll zoom in and spin the map around. It's a little bit more obvious.
07:44There's the UK. And any red blob is where the snow is less than the average you'd expect
07:51at this time of year. And you can see there across Poland up towards the Baltic states
07:56and even into western parts of Russia, there is less snow lying on the ground than we would
08:03expect at this time of year. So the air just isn't going to be as cold as it was back in
08:082018. And that slight shift in wind direction mean this is not the same thing. What about
08:16beyond the early part of next week? Well, we're not going to see much in the way of
08:21change. It doesn't look this is the probability plot with eight different main flavours of
08:26weather that we can see. Probability going up the side from zero to 100 and the dates
08:31going forward along the bottom. This brighter red colour. Well, that is indicative of high
08:37pressure sitting over Scandinavia. And that is definitely going to be the dominant feature,
08:42the most likely weather pattern throughout next week. Every day next week, it is greater
08:47than a 50 percent chance. The other darker red that comes in a little bit as we go through
08:52next week. Well, that is still for high pressure, but just in a slightly different position.
08:57That's with the high pressure sitting more to the north of the UK. Both would generate
09:01easterly wind. So we're pretty solid that we'll continue to see some form of easterly
09:06wind as we go through the entirety of next week. What does that mean for our weather?
09:11Well, yes, it means that we are likely to see things pretty chilly. This, as I said,
09:16is the most likely pressure pattern with the high sitting somewhere over Scandinavia, generating
09:20winds coming in from the east. And these are the temperature anomalies, the maximum temperature
09:24anomalies. So below average. But but bear in mind, this is based on the climatological
09:30average. As we've already seen, it's not as cold as it is usually at this time of year.
09:35So it probably won't be quite as cold as this. But this is the most likely set up with easterly
09:39winds keeping going through next week. High pressure still dominant. So a lot of dry weather.
09:45But it will be on the chilly side, particularly where we have clear skies at night. Run through
09:49the whole of next week, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Yes, the percentage chance drops
09:54off a little bit, but still over 50 percent even into Thursday. This is the most likely
10:00pressure set up. Now, we can always still have high pressure here. But as we saw, we'll
10:05see at the weekend, low pressures can shift up from the south and they can generate some
10:08moisture and that could provide at times some wetter weather. But most likely with
10:13high sitting here, it's going to stay cold but largely dry even as we head towards the
10:18end of the week. That other scenario with the high pressure not sitting here, but sitting
10:23to the north of the UK. Well, yes, it is likely an option. 30 percent chance by the time we
10:29get to Thursday that we have this slightly different pressure pattern with the high not
10:32sitting across Scandinavia, but sitting to the north. Now that if you shift it, that
10:37would generate stronger easterly winds. And yes, they will be coming from a little further
10:42north. But again, remember, these darker blues are indicative of the average climate. And
10:47as we've seen, it isn't as cold as you'd expect at this time of year. So it wouldn't be quite
10:52as cold still. But in this scenario with the high further to the north of the UK, we would
10:58see those winds coming in. So that would make it a little bit colder than the most likely
11:03scenario, which is the winds coming in from slightly further south. But even into Friday,
11:09the pressure patterns don't really shift very much. Again, high pressure likely to dominate
11:13here. But again, the second most likely one, which is still quite a high chance there,
11:1825, 26 percent even into Friday. So whichever of these is the eventual winner, it's still
11:25high pressure dominating pretty close to the UK. So what does that mean for our weather
11:29for pretty much the entirety of next week? We can expect it to be colder than average.
11:33But as we've seen, not exceptionally cold, largely dry. But we can always see those weather
11:40systems coming in. Wintry showers most likely in the east. And again, a subtle shift in
11:45those isobars determines how much moisture the air picks up as it comes across the North
11:51Sea. And that could generate a little bit more in the way of snow in eastern areas if
11:56it was a little bit of a longer sea track. So, yeah, things to play for. But some pretty
12:01consistent signal that it's going to be colder than average next week. A lot of dry weather
12:06around, but still some wintry things to be thinking about just to keep us on our toes.
12:11How long will it last? Well, then it's a bit of a battle in the following week about whether
12:15the Atlantic starts to win out. And Aidan talked much more about that in this week's
12:20deep dive. You can check that out. And also where the high pressure across Scandinavia
12:25is coming from and linking it to a deep area of low pressure in Hawaii. So, yeah, lots
12:30more in Aidan's deep dive from yesterday. Go and check that out and make sure you subscribe
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