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00:00This number's outrageous, and it's completely wrong.
00:03I think Houston wins this game.
00:05I genuinely do.
00:06I think Stroud found a level of confidence
00:09throughout that game against LA
00:11that he can carry into the game here against Kansas City,
00:13and they can attack early.
00:15And I think for the Chiefs, all of those,
00:18ah, listen, we'll figure it out,
00:20don't worry about it stuff.
00:21Eventually, the reason I harped on it so long
00:24is it comes back to bite you.
00:26There's a lot of people out there
00:27that think this game's going to be 14-0 Kansas City.
00:30A lot of predictions that the Chiefs' first drive
00:32is 1,000% a touchdown drive.
00:34Yeah, I don't expect that.
00:35There's an excellent defense on the other side of field
00:37in the Houston Texans,
00:39a defense you're much better off
00:40trying to run against and throw against.
00:42So if all of a sudden Pat wants to come out
00:44and turn the clock back four or five years,
00:46I don't think that's going to be
00:47as easy as everyone anticipates.
00:50Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter will be able to,
00:53it is the perfect pass rush to have for a team
00:56who is excellent on the interior
00:57and struggles on the exterior
00:59the way that Kansas City does.
01:01We know that the secondary is talented
01:03and bows up as well for Houston.
01:06I expect a close game the entire way
01:09that I legitimately believe Houston wins here today
01:12on the road.
01:12I'm with you, Kev.
01:13I believe Houston's live.
01:14I think it steps up for CJ Stroud to have a big day today.
01:18We saw 282 last week, a touchdown with an interception,
01:21and Nico Collins stepped up as well with seven receptions,
01:25122 yards, and a touchdown.
01:26You look at the games for Kansas City.
01:29We talk about it, 15 and two overall, eight and oh at home.
01:31They've won those games at home, Donnie,
01:34by an average margin of victory of 5.1 points per game.
01:37The two dominant wins at home were New Orleans
01:40on a Monday night.
01:40They laid five and a half.
01:42They won by 13, and you can make an argument
01:44in the game against the Texans
01:45where they laid three and a half and won by eight, right?
01:48The last six games, though, Kev,
01:49when you talk about should this spread be in line,
01:52eight, eight and a half points,
01:54they've won the last six games after the Buffalo game
01:57by an average margin of victory of eight points per game.
01:59It doesn't include the loss, obviously,
02:01with backups to Denver.
02:02And you look at Pat Mahomes.
02:04During those six games, he's averaged 254 passing yards
02:07per game, 11 touchdowns, no interceptions.
02:10But I am concerned about the layoff.
02:12Two, three weeks' time, that quarterback
02:14to wide receiver relationship,
02:16the offensive line might take a quarter or so,
02:18and I believe CJ Stroud, Donnie,
02:20is playing with house money.
02:21He was a little inconsistent in the first quarter.
02:24Once he got going in the second quarter,
02:26he was within rhythm.
02:27I think he carries over today.
02:29Keep an eye out for Nico Collins,
02:31but Dalton Schultz as well could be a next factor.
02:33You're looking at this game for Houston.
02:35Again, I normally would agree.
02:36They're a good football team,
02:37but they're not coming in hitting on all cylinders.
02:39And at the same time, you look at Andy Reid
02:41in the regular season, 21 and four off the bye,
02:43and his career was sensational.
02:44And the only game that he lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers
02:46in the postseason in a division where we had the bye
02:49was I believe it was 2016, like 18 to 16,
02:51something like that.
02:52Outside of that, this is what their MO is.
02:54They have the best defensive coordinator in football
02:56that nobody talks about,
02:57the best play caller slash coach in football,
02:59that's Andy Reid, who dominates, absolutely dominates,
03:02coming off of a bye week here.
03:03And now you're taking a look at a Houston Texans team
03:05that I'm getting a half of a punch.
03:06Picture a boxer in there with a heavy left
03:08and a heavy right going,
03:09I don't even have a right punch today, just all left.
03:11You have Nico Collins.
03:12He's sensational.
03:13That's all you have.
03:14You got Mixon coming into this game,
03:16half one-legged at this point.
03:17Who knows if he's even going to play.
03:19You lost Tank Dell, who was sensational
03:20in the previous game.
03:21If you're telling which, hey,
03:23I would love to match you to have a big game today
03:24because of the parlay I'm going to explain.
03:26But outside of that, one team completely rested and ready
03:29and dominates with a massive home field advantage
03:31in cold weather playing a dome team
03:33that has half of their football team injured
03:35when they need them.
03:36So the thing for me is, right,
03:37I think that all of that,
03:39I understand when we're talking about
03:40the outright perspective of this game.
03:43And I think that there certainly is a world, Donny,
03:44where Houston only scores 17 in this game.
03:47That's probably not enough to win.
03:49It's definitely enough to cover.
03:52Why am I supposed to believe
03:53the Chiefs are going to show up in the playoffs
03:54and have their best offensive game of the season?
03:56That's ridiculous.
03:57I'm sorry.
03:58And I want to make this point to people
03:59because there's a lot of people who think
04:00it's the same thing as last year.
04:01No, it's not.
04:03Last year's offense ranked top 10 in yards per play.
04:08This year's offense was tied with Pittsburgh
04:12for the worst offense in yards per play
04:15to make the postseason
04:16and was eighth worst in the entire NFL.
04:20Oh, but the defense, the defense.
04:22Last year's defense was fifth in opponent yards per play.
04:26This year's defense ranks outside the top five
04:30of teams that made the playoffs.
04:32They are objectively not as good as they were last year.
04:36It is not even close.
04:38It is very disrespectful and disingenuous
04:41to who they were last year
04:43to view this year as a carbon copy.
04:45I know it's the same guys at the top in Andy Reid
04:50and Pat Mahomes and Kelsey,
04:53but they're not performing at the same level.
04:56They just aren't.
04:58And I think ultimately, while we can say
05:01Houston does not have that 100% full deck,
05:05that is absolutely true.
05:07But I don't think Houston's MO,
05:10they're not, you know what, Donny?
05:11This isn't last year's Houston.
05:14Last year's Houston was 31, 35, 38, light it up.
05:17This year's Houston needs Stroud to make a couple of plays,
05:21maybe with the legs like he did last week,
05:23and that defense has to step up and turn Mahomes over.