Budget 2025 Expectations-
FM Nirmala Sitharaman 1 फरवरी को देश का Union Budget पेश करने वाली है. जिसको लेकर जोरों शोरों से तैयारियां जारी है. बजट का देश की इकॉनमी पर बहुत असर पड़ता है. ऐसे में बजट से पहले किन सेक्टर्स पर फोकस करना चाहिए, जानते हैं Future Focus: Budget 2025 के Episode 2 में. देखिए GoodReturns की Raj Vyas, Vice President of Research- Teji Mandi के साथ खास बातचीत.
#budget2025 #unionbudget2025 #sharemarket #budget2025expectations #nirmalasitharaman #incometax #stockstobuy #focusstock #focussector #budgetstocks #budgetsession #defencesector #railwaybudget #breakingnews #hindinews
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Taxpayer Wishlist: How Budget 2025 Could Ease The Tax Burden On The Middle Class? :: https://www.goodreturns.in/personal-finance/planning/taxpayer-wishlist-how-budget-2025-could-ease-the-tax-burden-on-the-middle-class-1398799.html?ref=DMDesc
Budget 2025: Middle Class Expects Tax Relief To Alleviate Financial Pressures In India :: https://www.goodreturns.in/personal-finance/planning/budget-2025-middle-class-expects-tax-relief-to-alleviate-financial-pressures-in-india-011-1397429.html?ref=DMDesc
India Inc Seeks Cut In Personal Income Tax Rates, Flags Dumping By China At Pre-Budget Meet :: https://www.goodreturns.in/news/india-inc-seeks-cut-in-personal-income-tax-rates-flags-dumping-by-china-at-pre-budget-meet-1396745.html?ref=DMDesc
~PR.147~ED.148~GR.125~HT.96~
FM Nirmala Sitharaman 1 फरवरी को देश का Union Budget पेश करने वाली है. जिसको लेकर जोरों शोरों से तैयारियां जारी है. बजट का देश की इकॉनमी पर बहुत असर पड़ता है. ऐसे में बजट से पहले किन सेक्टर्स पर फोकस करना चाहिए, जानते हैं Future Focus: Budget 2025 के Episode 2 में. देखिए GoodReturns की Raj Vyas, Vice President of Research- Teji Mandi के साथ खास बातचीत.
#budget2025 #unionbudget2025 #sharemarket #budget2025expectations #nirmalasitharaman #incometax #stockstobuy #focusstock #focussector #budgetstocks #budgetsession #defencesector #railwaybudget #breakingnews #hindinews
Also Read
Taxpayer Wishlist: How Budget 2025 Could Ease The Tax Burden On The Middle Class? :: https://www.goodreturns.in/personal-finance/planning/taxpayer-wishlist-how-budget-2025-could-ease-the-tax-burden-on-the-middle-class-1398799.html?ref=DMDesc
Budget 2025: Middle Class Expects Tax Relief To Alleviate Financial Pressures In India :: https://www.goodreturns.in/personal-finance/planning/budget-2025-middle-class-expects-tax-relief-to-alleviate-financial-pressures-in-india-011-1397429.html?ref=DMDesc
India Inc Seeks Cut In Personal Income Tax Rates, Flags Dumping By China At Pre-Budget Meet :: https://www.goodreturns.in/news/india-inc-seeks-cut-in-personal-income-tax-rates-flags-dumping-by-china-at-pre-budget-meet-1396745.html?ref=DMDesc
~PR.147~ED.148~GR.125~HT.96~
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NewsTranscript
00:00Namaskar! My name is Digvijay Singh. Welcome to Good Returns.
00:10We welcome you to our special series on Budget, Future Focus Budget 2025.
00:16In this episode, we will talk about Shihar Bazaar.
00:19The experts joining us for this discussion are
00:23SEBI-registered investment advisor firm Tejimandi's Vice President of Research, Raj Vyas.
00:30Tejimandi is the subsidiary of the country's biggest broking firm, Motilal Oswal Financial Services.
00:38Raj, welcome to our special program.
00:42Thank you for having me on your show.
00:44Sir, first of all, there are two big triggers, the earning season and the budget.
00:49The earning season has started with the TCS results.
00:52Let me start with the earning season.
00:57How are you looking at the TCS results and Q3 earnings for the bazaar?
01:02TCS has delivered a good growth in the December quarters.
01:10If we look at the revenue, margins, and profitability,
01:15they were all in-line as per consensus estimates.
01:19The driving point of the growth was the consumer business group which increased by 1.1%.
01:28The energy segment also increased.
01:31If we look at the regional markets and geographies,
01:35every parameter was green-ticked as it delivered well.
01:40If we look at the TCV, the total contact value, which is a very important parameter,
01:46it was around $10.2 billion.
01:52In Q2, it was only $8.6 billion.
01:55We can see that the new contact orders are also starting to reach them.
02:02This is a good news for the company and across sectors.
02:08The point of attrition rate, which we track in IT services,
02:13is also below 30%.
02:16It delivers very well.
02:20If we talk about the US elections,
02:25if we look at the last 7 out of 8 elections,
02:29every 7 times, the IT sector has outperformed the benchmark.
02:37Trump's office is going to resume on 20th January.
02:43He has shown a cool-off on the H1B1 visa, which is very important for IT companies.
02:52The majority of Indian IT firms' revenue comes from the US and European countries.
02:58He has taken a very positive stance.
03:03His economy is growing.
03:07It is stable.
03:08These are the parameters that deliver positive momentum to the sector and the company.
03:16We are very positive as an IT sector as a whole.
03:19Is there any other sector other than IT that is in focus for Q3,
03:25which you can suggest to keep an eye on?
03:30Apart from IT, we like the industrial sector.
03:37It caters to the entire economy.
03:40If we talk about a developed country,
03:43you have to grow the economy.
03:47When there is economic growth, the manufacturing sector will grow.
03:54According to the macro data points, we are very positive in the industrial sector.
04:02If we talk about the company, we have taken the GN India fund.
04:09It also caters to the industrial sector.
04:13If you look at the financials and management outlook,
04:18the sector and company outlook is very good.
04:22Apart from IT, we are focusing on the industrial sector.
04:28Sir, if we look at the overall share market,
04:31we saw a correction in November and December.
04:36Now, there is a lot of volatility.
04:39What is the reason for this?
04:42There is a lot of ups and downs.
04:45What is the reason for this?
04:46How long will this continue?
04:48Will the market be in this mood till the budget?
04:52If we check the history record of 15 days before the budget,
04:56in the last 5 budgets, the average performance was negative.
05:00It was minus 3%.
05:01In July 2024, we saw a positive return in the budget.
05:10If we talk about volatility,
05:16if we look at the performance after 15 days of the announcement of the budget,
05:22the average of the budget has been positive at 2.3%.
05:2615 days before the budget, there is a lot of volatility.
05:29There is a lot of news that there may be a reduction in taxes.
05:33This sector may get a boost.
05:35For all these reasons, the volatility increases.
05:38If we look at the performance after 15 days of the announcement of the budget,
05:42in the last 5 budgets, it has been positive.
05:46If we look at why the market is correcting,
05:50there are 3-4 big things.
05:52There is a battle between domestic liquidity,
05:56valuations, global headwinds,
06:00and the outflow of FIIs in the Indian market.
06:04We have seen the history of such deep corrections.
06:10We got an interesting data point that every 2 years,
06:14there is a correction of 10% or more in Nifty.
06:18If we look at the reasons,
06:22there was a reason for the Brexit referendum.
06:25In 2018, there was an ILFS crisis.
06:28In 2020, it was due to COVID.
06:31In 2022, the Russian-Ukrainian war impacted the global markets.
06:36In 2024, there was an outflow of FIIs.
06:42Due to this reason, the market has been impacted.
06:45In short, whatever the reason,
06:50the market has its own way of flushing out weak hands.
06:56It is important to see how the market performs after deep corrections.
07:04After such corrections,
07:09the market has made new highs in the last 12-15 months.
07:14The market has also touched new levels over the period.
07:20This is a positive thing.
07:22There is a correction of 10% or more.
07:25Nifty and benchmark indices should grow from here.
07:31What is the mood of the market in the upcoming budget?
07:38What direction can the market go?
07:41Especially, when we hit the budget in February.
07:44We have done an analysis of the month before the budget.
07:51How does it perform?
07:54If we look at the last 10 years,
07:57Nifty has given a return of between 0.1% and 0.3%.
08:06This is due to the budget and quarterly earnings.
08:13This helps the market to grasp both.
08:17It focuses on the budget and quarterly earnings.
08:23What will be the growth trajectory?
08:25These are the reasons.
08:27As you said, the market is volatile.
08:31We have seen the volatility index.
08:34During this period,
08:36India's volatility index has seen a minimum increase of 7%.
08:43We expect that volatility will remain in the market till the budget comes.
08:51This is due to the quarterly earnings and news flows.
08:55When the budget is coming,
08:59In which sector are you focusing?
09:02In the earning season, IT and industrial have become.
09:05When the budget is coming,
09:07There are many expectations related to the budget.
09:09In which sector are you focusing?
09:11Where are you looking?
09:12You can tell our viewers.
09:14If we look at the impact of the budget,
09:18We don't speculate on the budget.
09:20Because there is no use of it.
09:22If we speculate on the budget,
09:26We get to see the short-term impact.
09:31For the next 3-4 days.
09:34After that, the market focuses on earnings, growth, and fundamentals.
09:41It forgets about the budget.
09:45If we look at the upcoming budget and sector-specific,
09:52We are focusing on sectors like railways, agriculture, infrastructure, and renewables.
10:00Our focus is on railways.
10:03Because the government is focusing on modernization, safety upgrades,
10:09Like coverage, network expansion, and electrification.
10:12They want to work.
10:14And they have already worked.
10:16If we look at the last July budget,
10:19The railway budget allocation was around 2.60 lakh crores.
10:28It will be interesting to see if this will come in the budget or not.
10:34Last July's budget allocation increased a lot.
10:45This sector provides productivity and resilience.
10:49Infrastructure is a big sector.
10:56It covers 3.3% of India's GDP.
11:03This is India's vision to become a rich country.
11:10The government did not make any changes to the last July budget.
11:18It was around 11.11 lakh crores.
11:21If we look at the data till November,
11:24They have utilized only 46.2% of the capex.
11:29They will have to utilize the remaining percentage in a fast pace.
11:37We believe that 11.11 lakh crores cannot be fully utilized in FY25.
11:44They will have to work hard.
11:48Our focus is on infrastructure.
11:55If we look at the last revised estimates,
12:02The defence budget decreased by 0.3%.
12:05It was around 6.21 lakh crores.
12:08Recently, the defence minister, Rajnath Singh,
12:13Approached with optimism that FY25 will be significant for the defence sector.
12:22Recently, he talked about exporting 50,000 crores of defence equipment in FY2029.
12:33This is a significant goal.
12:38The budget will also be important.
12:41This will be the first budget of the Modi government.
12:45This will be a roadmap for the government.
12:52We will get to see a lot of improvements.
12:56Sir, we are looking at the railway, defence, and infrastructure sectors.
12:59One thing that we should discuss is
13:02Will the government be aggressive in the investment of Vinivesh?
13:09What is your opinion on this?
13:11The government focuses on divestment in every budget.
13:15But it cannot be fulfilled for some reasons.
13:18Our focus is not to focus on divestment.
13:22Government is talking about privatization in other sectors.
13:26So that jobs can get creativity boost.
13:30Private players can contribute.
13:34Our focus is not on divestment.
13:39That is also a speculation.
13:42It will not happen.
13:44It will impact for some time.
13:46Then we will go back to funds.
13:48We are not focusing on divestment.
13:51The GDP growth is being discussed.
13:54It is coming down.
13:56There is a muted estimate.
13:57FY25 has a 6.8 max.
14:00What is your opinion on this?
14:02What can the government do to boost it?
14:04What can it do to increase its speed?
14:06What is your opinion on this?
14:08To boost the GDP,
14:10Taxation in the hands of the individual is high.
14:19Inflation has also increased.
14:21Consumption power is not increasing.
14:26If you look at crude oil,
14:31It is around $77.
14:34We have not seen a reduction in their excise.
14:40Government's capex plan was around 11 lakh crores.
14:46They have utilized 46-48% till November.
14:50This could be due to general elections,
14:56State elections,
14:59Delhi, Uttar Pradesh,
15:03State elections,
15:06Government's capex plan was not as good as it should have been.
15:13Government's capex plan will help the industry grow.
15:22This will have a correlation with the overall GDP growth.
15:28The 6.5% and 7.8% of FY25's GDP growth.
15:36This project is very important.
15:41Government's plans will tell us a lot about the future growth.
15:49In the last 2-3 years,
15:51India's GDP has outperformed the developing countries.
15:58This year will also outperform.
16:00This is an internal thing.
16:02Once it improves, the GDP will improve.
16:05Last question.
16:07Are you expecting a big announcement in the coming budget?
16:14There is a lot of news about taxation.
16:21Are you expecting a big announcement?
16:26Our focus is to keep the budget tight.
16:34Especially in the sectors like infrastructure,
16:38manufacturing,
16:40and the PLI schemes announced by the government.
16:46We are focusing on these sectors.
16:50If we look at the relief,
16:54In the last few days,
16:56we saw that the government will forgive the income tax slab of 15 lakhs.
17:03Now there is news that it will be around 10 lakhs.
17:06The income tax relief is very good.
17:12Because the middle class,
17:15where a large percentage of the population belongs to,
17:20if the income tax relief is done,
17:23the cash in their hands will be saved.
17:27Due to this, their consumption power will increase.
17:31As the consumption power increases,
17:33the FMCG sectors,
17:35or consumer discretionary,
17:37where we have not seen it,
17:40and their direct impact on stock prices,
17:44there will be a positive turnaround.
17:49This will pick up growth.
17:53As you have talked about GDP,
17:56across industries,
17:58across geographies,
18:00if the consumption power increases,
18:04there should be a reduction in inflation.
18:06We should not be on the stance of the RBI,
18:11that it will cut the interest rate,
18:13then the cash power will be on inflation.
18:17The government should also focus on this.
18:20By doing all this,
18:22the GDP growth and consumption trend will pick up.
18:26We have discussed this on inflation.
18:28This is another point.
18:30Secondly,
18:32to make India developed,
18:36the manufacturing hub,
18:38the government was also focusing on this.
18:41The deadline for manufacturing companies,
18:44to set up their plants,
18:47is around 15%.
18:49Their deadline is around 2024.
18:54If this deadline is extended,
18:57it will boost innovation.
19:02It will also help in job creation.
19:04We have seen,
19:07the employment related government,
19:11they need skilled labourers.
19:14They need skilled labourers,
19:18so that they can get a job easily.
19:21If they get a job,
19:25their income earning will increase.
19:28Taxation slabs will be reduced.
19:30This will be beneficial.
19:32This is what we are focusing on.
19:34Overall,
19:35there are two major events for the market.
19:38The first is the earnings season.
19:40The second is the budget.
19:41Raj Vyas is saying,
19:43you can focus on the IT and industrial sectors.
19:46The market will be in volatility for the short term.
19:50We should focus on the CapEx related sectors.
19:55Raj Vyas, thank you for joining us.
19:57Thank you so much.