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00:00All right, let's look at some props here with Drew Aller.
00:02We'll start with the Penn State quarterback, Riley Lennar.
00:04Generally speaking, you know, hard to gauge on props with him.
00:07The guy doesn't throw for 150 yards a game,
00:09but Aller usually does his pass prop 183 and a half.
00:13His passing touchdowns, if he goes over one
00:15and a half touchdowns, Bill, they're plus 148 there,
00:18but we know that Penn State likes to run the ball as well.
00:20A lot of their touchdowns are coming from that,
00:22and then an interception basically.
00:23Minus 120 on the yes, minus 106 on the no.
00:27I think for Penn State to win, if Aller throws for 250 yards,
00:31Bill, I don't know that that's the recipe
00:33to win this game tonight.
00:34Don't they need those two running backs to really shine?
00:37I think they would prefer to have him around 200 yards.
00:40This is a really tight over-under.
00:42Because against good teams, Drew Aller
00:45has struggled a little bit.
00:46Their 0 and 4 against Michigan, Ohio State, Oregon
00:50the last two years, his completion percentage
00:52in those games is around 49%.
00:55But there's a little bit of an all or nothing passing attack.
00:58I think on third and short and third medium,
01:00he's looking for Tyler Warren.
01:01He'll take a few deep shots with Omari Evans.
01:03They got him going in the last game.
01:05And he will.
01:06They're going to take a couple shots.
01:08They can't just run the football.
01:10So I would be surprised if he got too far over 200,
01:15but they are going to take their shots.
01:16And I'm still tempted to take the over on this prop.
01:19All right, fair enough.
01:20Now let's take a look at any time touchdowns.
01:23I don't know how many targets Tyler Warren is going
01:25to get tonight.
01:26But my gosh, I don't know, Bill, that I've
01:27seen anybody more targeted in terms of the quarterback
01:31to receiver or tight end than this guy.
01:32So naturally, you've got to make him minus 110 to score tonight.
01:35Because any time they're near the red zone,
01:37they throw him the ball.
01:38Riley Leonard, minus 110.
01:40Love, minus 110.
01:41And then some plus money on Allen,
01:43the other running back at PSU, Nicholas Singleton,
01:46Jadarian Price, and Aeneas Williams of Notre Dame.
01:51I mean, you just can't stop Warren, right?
01:53Like, that's pretty much the deal.
01:54Like, I know sometimes he's wide open.
01:56But even with two guys near him in the end zone,
01:58he just jumps up and catches the ball.
02:00Yeah, his catch percentage on passes
02:02of between 1 and 10 yards, which is where I think he'll
02:05get looked at a lot tonight, is 75%.
02:08I mean, who wouldn't attack that matchup when you have it?
02:10The one prop I like is Riley Leonard.
02:13If Notre Dame gets the ball inside the five yard line,
02:15I think he's going to run the football.
02:17So I can see him getting a short yardage touchdown
02:19in this game as well.
02:21So it comes down to a 23-20 type game for me.
02:25The kickers, if there's props on the kickers out there,
02:27I think they'll kick a couple field goals in this game.
02:29And I won't be surprised if this game ends on a field goal.
02:33An ugly game that ends on a field goal.
02:35And like you said, I'm going to take the Irish.
02:38I may regret it later, but it just feels
02:41like the right pick right now.
02:43Yeah, yesterday, Notre Dame's kicker shows up
02:46at my son's school kicking field goals there
02:49at the football field yesterday.
02:51That was fun to see.
02:52All right, a very close by to me.
02:54Jeremiah Love yesterday.
02:56I think that he was the one player that I was looking at
02:59as far as how many yards he could get in this game.
03:02Because again, we saw a couple of games ago,
03:03we busted open one.
03:05But the deal is, is to get 80 plus yards, Bill,
03:09this is what I was looking at as some potential, plus 390.
03:12I mean, I can't predict any running back
03:14in college football's ever going to have a hundred yard game
03:16like to predict that.
03:18But it seems to me that this is a nice recipe
03:21and some potential big money that can be made.
03:24I mean, 81 yards, not unreasonable if I look back
03:26at all the data from this guy over the course of the season.
03:29Yeah, 60, I like the 60.
03:32I would play a little safer because he'll probably get
03:35between 10 to 12 carries.
03:37He's been battling that knee injury.
03:38To your point, if you want to take a swing,
03:40he is a big play running back.
03:42And you know, when you average six and seven yards per carry
03:45at the 98 yard run against Indiana,
03:47it only takes one lightning strike.
03:49And in a game like this, I think there'll be a couple
03:51between him and Katron Allen and Nick Singleton.
03:54Somebody will bust off a big run
03:56and somebody will have a big touchdown run in this game.
03:58That's not a bad bet.