Is PML-N govt going to end in 2025? - Sohail Warraich, Mohammad Malick and Fahd Hussain's Reaction

2 days ago

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Transcript

00:00I would like to start with Mr. Mohammad Malik and the rest of the guests.

00:07Obviously, none of us are stars and we are not making any claims.

00:12But there is a probability that 100% is right and 100% is wrong.

00:19But when you sit down and look at January 1st, what do you think is the probability?

00:23Tell us the percentage.

00:26First of all, I would like to ask you.

00:29In your opinion, how much is the probability of this government staying in power in this one year?

00:36Of course, I understand that in a country like Pakistan, it is sometimes very difficult to predict the next 365 days.

00:41Events happen so fast.

00:43But as I said, this is not a claim.

00:45This is just an estimate.

00:46It can be right or wrong.

00:47How much is the probability of this government staying in power in this year, in 2025?

00:57I can see that they will stay in power in 2025.

01:01Because there are two or three things.

01:03There are two angles.

01:04One is the economic situation of Pakistan and the other is the political situation.

01:08If you come to politics, the countdown has started on January 20th.

01:13And the work that Richard Grenell has shown in the last few days of 2024,

01:20has aroused a lot of expectations.

01:24But at the same time, this is a double-edged sword.

01:28A lot of people think that Trump administration will be involved.

01:34It is said about Richard Grenell that he has a lot of personal relations with Trump's younger son.

01:42Then the senior people of PTI sitting in America and very effective people.

01:49I spoke to one or two of them who matter.

01:53They are very confident that there are a lot of promises in domestic politics.

01:58Of Republican candidates, of Congress, of other people who have been supported by the Pakistani diaspora.

02:04And they are saying to leave the international.

02:07The quid pro quo of elections in domestic politics,

02:11you will see that there will be involvement.

02:14That is a very significant thing.

02:17But the issue is that this is a double-edged sword.

02:21Everyone thinks that if there is American involvement,

02:25then the government will have to back off and Mr. Khan will get a lot of relief.

02:30But if they survive this, if there is any involvement,

02:35then what will happen?

02:41PTI cannot create street pressure at the moment.

02:45In the state it is in, the bad situation in Punjab,

02:48the hardships, the military trials.

02:51And you will remember the last pressure in December 2024,

02:57of DGI SPR.

02:59After that, there should be no doubt that Imran Khan's plan is complete

03:04that he is ready to conduct military trials.

03:07We are hearing about Faiz Ameed,

03:09that his decision will also be made.

03:11That will also be a military trial.

03:13You said that if the American factory is down, then what?

03:17Then it is very tough.

03:19At the moment, it seems that the American factory is the most important element.

03:22How much is the possibility of this downfall in your opinion?

03:26At the moment, it is 50-50.

03:29Secondly, there is a big difference in the nature of the involvement.

03:32You see that,

03:34Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif has made 6 visits to Saudi Arabia in less than a month.

03:41And when you talk to the relevant people of the government,

03:45the insiders,

03:46they say that,

03:47I have asked them,

03:48I said that 5-6 visits have been made, up and down.

03:51There is no economic issue.

03:53Development does not happen so quickly.

03:55So, they are seeing a buffer in that.

03:59If Trump administration is involved,

04:01then MBS will be our saviour.

04:04Because MBS is very important for Trump's Middle East policy.

04:10And also for his personal business interest.

04:13If a person says,

04:15Brother, you will save us.

04:17So, they are building their buffer zone like that.

04:20And again, the difference has to be seen,

04:22that what level of involvement does the Trump administration have?

04:26How forceful is the administration?

04:28So, you are saying that due to American pressure,

04:31there is a 50-50 chance of a breakthrough.

04:34And you think that there is a chance for the government to survive this year.

04:39You have no reason to believe that the government will fall this year.

04:43Yes, because if there is an agreement with PTI,

04:48then it will not be a matter of a few weeks.

04:51Let's say,

04:52negotiations will start again on 2nd.

04:55If that is meaningful,

04:56even if something happens under any compulsion,

04:58then at least 25 years.

05:00Correct.

05:01More than political,

05:02for them, economic issues are more tough.

05:04I will ask you a separate question about the economy.

05:06Absolutely right.

05:08Sohail sir, exactly the same question is from you.

05:10What percentage do you think there is a chance for the government to survive this year in 2025?

05:1680%.

05:1780%, alright.

05:19And the remaining 20% is due to the American element.

05:25The reason for that is,

05:27at the moment, the government has a legitimacy issue

05:31and the other is unacceptable.

05:34These are the two issues.

05:37And the solution to these two issues is the national government.

05:41But with a weak PTI, the national government.

05:45So, there is a possibility that at the end of this year,

05:51if there is a chance for it, then it will start.

05:55Okay.

05:56And,

05:57because when we are talking right now,

05:59Sohail sir,

06:00the situation is that,

06:01like Mr. Malik said,

06:03things have been managed here on other issues.

06:05If something unexpected happens from America,

06:08then things can change completely.

06:09Do you think this is overhyped?

06:13On the basis of some tweets,

06:15don't you think so?

06:18Look,

06:19both options are there.

06:21With the administration,

06:23with our establishment.

06:25One is that they will try to cool the fire.

06:30Like Mr. Malik said,

06:32through Muhammad bin Salman.

06:35Obviously, there are old ties in their Pentagon.

06:38They will also bring them into use.

06:40The effort is being made that the non-loyalty,

06:43a loyal minister should participate in it.

06:46Okay.

06:47Nowadays,

06:48the ambassadors of Pakistan in America,

06:51have come to Pakistan.

06:52Right.

06:53And,

06:54peace talks are ongoing abroad.

06:56So,

06:57obviously,

06:58they are making their own strategy that,

07:00if there is a slight intervention,

07:03then they will avoid it and manage it.

07:06Right.

07:07If there is a major,

07:08then they will talk to China,

07:10they will also talk to Saudi Arabia.

07:12And,

07:13they also have a third option.

07:14What is that?

07:15The third option is that,

07:17which Bilawal has expressed,

07:19that America,

07:21politics is just an excuse.

07:23Imran Khan is just an excuse.

07:25The real target,

07:27is the missile program.

07:29The target is the missile program.

07:31So,

07:32this narrative,

07:33will be sold.

07:34And,

07:35will be sold.

07:36And,

07:37the strongest thing of Imran,

07:39which is his acceptance,

07:41will be attacked.

07:42Hmm.

07:43Okay.

Is PML-N govt going to end in 2025? - Sohail Warraich, Mohammad Malick and Fahd Hussain's Reaction

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