French President Emmanuel Macron aims to name a new Prime Minister for France "within 48 hours" as he seeks to end political deadlock following the ouster of Michel Barnier. FRANCE 24's Sharon Gaffney speaks to Renaud Foucart, Senior Lecturer at Lancaster University. He says that the centre-left parties called to the Elysée on Tuesday seem willing to work together but it's unclear whether the new government will eventually lean centre-left or centre-right.
Visit our website:
http://www.france24.com
Like us on Facebook:
https://www.facebook.com/FRANCE24.English
Follow us on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/France24_en
Visit our website:
http://www.france24.com
Like us on Facebook:
https://www.facebook.com/FRANCE24.English
Follow us on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/France24_en
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00This is Apropos.
00:04Interesting but inconclusive, that's the verdict from potential kingmakers,
00:09France's Socialist Party, following talks with Emmanuel Macron.
00:13The French president is seeking to end the deadlock
00:16prompted by the ousting last week of Michel Barnier.
00:19He's been holding talks with various political leaders,
00:22excluding the far-right and hard-left,
00:25with the aim of appointing a new prime minister within the next 48 hours.
00:29James Vazina has the latest.
00:33Without a head of government for almost a week,
00:36Emmanuel Macron has embarked on a frantic quest
00:39to find unity among the majority of the country's parties.
00:44Last Wednesday, Michel Barnier became France's shortest-serving prime minister,
00:49lasting just 90 days in the hot seat
00:52before MPs voted to oust the conservative lawmaker
00:56over measures that they deemed to be too austere for the year to come.
01:01He'd sought to cut the country's deficits from an estimated 6.1% this year to 5%.
01:07And now, with no budget set for 2025,
01:10the head of the Bank of France is urging lawmakers to take example on other countries
01:15in order to lower its public spending, which is one of the highest in the world.
01:20Compromise will be key,
01:23and the Socialist Party, which is included in the left-wing coalition
01:27that holds the most parliamentary seats,
01:29is expected to hold the most weight in these talks.
01:34We've asked the government to refrain from using the article,
01:37allowing it to force through legislation,
01:39in exchange for which the opposition parties will refrain from a vote of no confidence.
01:45We'd come to hear what compromises the presidential camp would be ready to make,
01:49but they're not prepared to make a single concession.
01:54Far-right and far-left parties were left out of Tuesday's meeting,
01:58with Macron saying that he didn't wish to seek their support.
02:02The president of the assembly's France Unbowed group has called for the president to resign.
02:08But with over two years left on his mandate,
02:10Emmanuel Macron has called the scenario political fiction.
02:17To discuss the situation in more depth, we're joined now by Renaud Foucault.
02:21He's senior lecturer at the UK-based Lancaster University.
02:25Thanks so much for being with us on the programme this evening, Renaud.
02:29So party chiefs saying Emmanuel Macron is aiming to appoint a new prime minister
02:34within the next 48 hours or so.
02:36We did hear a similar kind of optimistic tone coming from the Élysée last week.
02:40We were hoping perhaps to have a new prime minister by the weekend
02:43for the reopening of Notre Dame.
02:45That didn't happen.
02:46What are you expecting now?
02:48Well, Macron is known for taking his time,
02:51but I guess the 48-hour deadline seems to be quite reasonable this time.
02:55There doesn't seem to be any major, major hurdles right now.
02:59So the big clean-up is that Macron has decided not to invite the far-right anymore.
03:05And so this is a group of parties from the right, centre, left, Greens,
03:10who won the election together in July.
03:12So it sounds a bit obvious as of today.
03:14In July, there was a Republican front in the second round of the election
03:18to block the far-right from getting into power.
03:21They won.
03:22And suddenly they stopped talking to each other after the election.
03:25So now they are together.
03:26And they seem that because there was so much shock,
03:29so much surprise and suspense with the first Barnier government,
03:34people have maybe more of a sense of responsibility today.
03:37And it was easier to have the differentiation between the Green,
03:41the socialist and the communist, and the far-left of Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
03:45All those people are ready to somehow, in some form, work together.
03:49The big hurdle is, is it going to be centre-left or centre-right?
03:54And who do you think the new prime minister might be?
03:56We saw another meeting this afternoon.
03:58Before Emmanuel Macron held some of those meetings,
04:01the Modem leader was back at the Élysée.
04:04He also was striking a rather optimistic tone after meeting the French president.
04:09Is he likely to be the new prime minister, do you think?
04:13He is the main front-runner at the moment.
04:15He has the big advantage of being extremely close to Emmanuel Macron,
04:19both personally and also ideologically.
04:21So this is the person to whom Emmanuel Macron owes his job as president in the first place
04:26because he withdrew his candidacy for him in 2017.
04:30He's also someone who could speak in some ways to the left
04:33because originally, in the presidency of Nicolas Sarkozy,
04:37Bayrou, who was the centrist at the time, didn't call to vote for Sarkozy.
04:41So he was relatively open, the first, I think, centrist in a very long time,
04:45to be open to talk both to the left and to the right.
04:47He's also personally in favour of more proportional representation,
04:51which is a big of the revendication from the centre-left.
04:55And also, he has been for a long time obsessed by cutting the French deficit.
05:00And he was largely speaking in the desert 10 years ago,
05:03but now that the deficit is structurally 6%,
05:06that no one seems to be willing to bring it back,
05:09he seems to be the right person.
05:11So he might have enemies on the right.
05:13He might be the kind of person who could get no censorship from the centre-left.
05:17What is not obvious to me is whether they would accept to sit on a government with him.
05:22More likely, they would be happy to just have a position of not voting censorship against him.
05:27But the centre alone cannot really govern.
05:29So that's, I think, the main hurdle for him.
05:31And Macron as well, he seems to be suggesting that political parties
05:35might be able to come together to form some kind of agreement
05:38not to censure the new government,
05:40but given how deeply divided the National Assembly currently is,
05:44do you think that's a realistic hope, a realistic ambition?
05:48It's the only possibility anyway,
05:50because there is no election before the summer that is possible.
05:54I think it's not crazy.
05:56I think that the main realisation of today, I think,
05:58from the centre-left and the right is that
06:01there is no way to have a majority in France now without the centre.
06:05And the main realisation of the centre is that they cannot do it alone.
06:08So no censorship is the easiest for the left
06:12because it means that they don't have to be accountable
06:14for something that will be, like we've seen with the attempt by Michel Barnier,
06:18a very tough budget.
06:20So bringing deficit back from 6% to 4% or below 3% is a very difficult task.
06:25It means making a lot of people angry.
06:28So it would be much easier for the left to take the job
06:31that was the job of Marine Le Pen until a week ago,
06:33which is to be a bit outside of the government
06:36and just to ask for a lot of concessions.
06:38Because then they could say, look, we are the left, we make a difference.
06:41When we are on the side but supporting the government,
06:44we get a lot of concessions,
06:46but we are not accountable for the bad austerity that is coming.
06:49Similarly for the right, I think there is a bit of this temptation.
06:52They would like to be in government
06:54because they are very small and it gives them power,
06:56but it is very difficult.
06:58They are already small to be accountable for a tough budget.
07:01So somehow it might be easier to get the non-censorship
07:05than to actually convince people to take jobs in government.
07:08And the far left though, it's warning against a grand coalition.
07:12We saw the Conservatives, the Republicans come out today
07:15to express scepticism about the possibility of the left cohabitating,
07:21so to speak, with centrists.
07:23So each side seems to be putting doubt on the possibility
07:28that the others are going to be able to come to any form of agreement.
07:31So where does all of this leave Emmanuel Macron?
07:34Well, the Conservatives, the Republicans, the party of Barnier,
07:37they said we will be open to not censor
07:40as long as the far left is not part of the government.
07:43But this is not going to happen.
07:45The far left is not going to be part of the government
07:47because they don't want to be with the centrists anyway.
07:49So in a way, there is a possibility for the Conservatives
07:52not to censor the left.
07:54So this is something that Macron could totally live with.
07:56He could nominate someone from the center left
07:59and get a majority with the center.
08:01The question is, does he want to do it?
08:03It doesn't seem to be his instinct to give anything to the left that they want.
08:07So he could very easily pick Lucy Castell.
08:10Lucy Castell was the candidate pushed by the left as a prime minister.
08:14He could say, OK, take your responsibility.
08:16You are now prime minister, but you need to convince us to accept your deal.
08:20So you need to make concessions to the center.
08:22I don't think Macron is in that mood.
08:24So just what he needs at the moment is to find a centrist
08:27that convinces at least some personality,
08:30perhaps on an individual basis from the left to join
08:33so that it doesn't look like a tiny party of the center
08:37with a relatively broad range of outsiders,
08:40each asking for different concessions.
08:43Because in the end, the big, big, big job of this government
08:47is to bring budget back on track.
08:49And it's only possible if there is a sense of responsibility
08:52from a sufficiently large number of parties to go back to the voters
08:56and say, OK, this is tough.
08:58This is a difficult task, but we have to do it.
09:01How much pressure is the French president under here?
09:03There is no constitutional deadline to appoint a new prime minister.
09:08There is no deadline.
09:10Macron at the moment is living in many ways his best life
09:13as the job of president on the international stage,
09:16from the Olympics to brokering a deal in Lebanon
09:19to the reopening of Notre Dame,
09:21managing to have a Trump-Zelensky meeting.
09:23He's been very good at that.
09:25And going back to the center stage of France,
09:28where things are complicated, murky,
09:30he needs to find agreement between people
09:32who don't really want to take responsibility
09:34because everyone is waiting for 2027.
09:37So the job of next president is job.
09:40Somehow I think he's not in a hurry.
09:43The only reason why he would like to act in this 48-hour deadline
09:46is that he doesn't want it to be about him.
09:48So he wants to say, I am above this.
09:51So I'm giving you a name and now make an agreement.
09:54You wanted parliamentary democracy.
09:56You wanted more proportional representation.
09:58You have it.
09:59Do your job.
10:00I'm the president.
10:01I'm above this.
10:02And speaking of the parliament,
10:03sources close to the president suggesting today
10:06that he doesn't want to see parliament dissolved
10:08until the end of his mandate in 2027.
10:11Given how divided it is, though, is that a realistic goal?
10:16So he said, I don't want to do it.
10:18And then his allies quickly said,
10:20it doesn't mean it's a commitment.
10:21It means this is the goal.
10:23The question is what happens if there is an election in the summer.
10:27It's not obvious who would be the main winner.
10:29It could have been relatively obviously the far right.
10:33So I don't think he would like to dissolve
10:35and get Le Pen having Bardella prime minister.
10:38I'm not that sure this trend is still as big
10:41since the far right has made the government fall.
10:43Things have been a bit changing.
10:45Quite a lot of people, for instance,
10:47farmers are actually quite angry at the far right
10:49because the end of Barney's government
10:54means that they don't get the aid they were meant to receive.
10:57And so I don't think there would be an election
10:59unless Macron feels that he can win that election.
11:03And since we last spoke, Renaud,
11:05are you yourself any more hopeful that any new government
11:08that is eventually formed will be able to survive
11:12potentially another no confidence motion
11:15in the coming weeks or in the coming months?
11:18They will most likely survive a no confidence motion
11:21if at the beginning there is an agreement on a way to work.
11:25And I think this is why the change that Macron made
11:27with those meetings today is, I think, a good change.
11:30It's not anymore the president saying
11:32this is the person in charge, we have to follow him.
11:34That didn't work with Barnier
11:36and he was anyway completely hostage of Le Pen.
11:39So I think what could work is if they agree
11:42on some basic condition not to censor each other.
11:46But now it's also a bit dangerous
11:48because the left was saying, for instance,
11:50you have to go but never use the 49.3.
11:53So the fact that you pass a law as a law of the government
11:57that is not voted in parliament
11:59unless it's a vote of censorship.
12:01There is a risk that there is a very weak government
12:04who then will be some hostage of parliament
12:07who will try to pass a lot of small laws
12:10that make it very, very difficult
12:12then to bring the budget back on track.
12:14So everyone will always be happy to support lower tax,
12:17more spending, but someone who is strong enough
12:20to have the broad view and cut the deficit is more difficult.
12:23So yes, a relatively long lasting government is possible.
12:27The question is, is it also a government
12:29that can really help the French economy come back and bounce back?
12:33It all remains to be seen.
12:34Renaud, we'll have to leave it there for now.
12:36Thanks so much for being with us this evening.
12:38That's Renaud Foucault, senior lecturer at Lancaster University.
12:42Well, that is it from us.