The weight-loss industry is being reshaped as a new generation of medications transforms the way people shed kilos. The drugs, originally designed to treat diabetes, are now fuelling a multi- billion- dollar market — but the impact is reaching far beyond individual waistlines.
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00:00About 7 million Americans are using the drugs at the moment, and that's projected to rise
00:07to 24 million people by 2035. The figures for Australia aren't really known because
00:13the drugs are not listed on the PBS for weight loss, but we do know that there's a growing
00:18demand across the country. There's shortages in pharmacies everywhere you go, and that
00:22really points to the number of people using it here. Citigroup did a report recently looking
00:28at that US data, and it really showed how these medications are affecting the economy
00:34there. It found that fruit and vegetable consumption among the 7 million people that are on these
00:41drugs has really increased, while the consumption of sweet foods and snack foods and chocolate
00:48has really decreased, and that's already having an effect on those companies that are creating
00:52those snack foods. Some of them are starting to create more protein-heavy products and
00:57have fewer calories to cater to the growing number of people that are on these medications.
01:03Those economic shifts are likely to keep growing in the US and also come here, especially when
01:08patents for these medications expire in Australia in 2031. When that happens, it's likely the
01:15market will be flooded with generics that are cheaper and more widely available, and
01:21also having fewer side effects. We know that some of the side effects of these drugs are
01:25quite serious. Pancreatitis is one of them, nausea, vomiting, and headaches, and it means
01:31that a lot of people switch the medications to see which one is right for them, but there
01:36aren't that many on the market right now. When those patents end, it will allow more
01:40players to come into the field and to create drugs that could be used in a pill form instead
01:45of an injection and to have fewer side effects. A really good example is what we've seen happen
01:50with the company ResMed. It's an Australian multi-billion dollar Australian company on
01:54the ASX that makes medical devices, predominantly CPAP machines for people with sleep apnea.
02:01Last year, the company's share price dropped off the back of concerns that these drugs
02:06were going to mean that fewer people had sleep apnea because it is associated with higher
02:11weight. What actually happened this year is that their share price went up and they've
02:15been able to sell more of these CPAP machines. The reason that is, is because of how economics
02:21works with these drugs. It's what health economists are saying is really unusual. When
02:25you are overweight typically or fall into that obese category, you're less likely to
02:30see a doctor because of stigma or because you're sick of being lectured to by a doctor
02:34about your weight. People are getting more closely in touch with the medical industry
02:39by taking these drugs. They're seeing their GPs more often. That means they're more likely
02:44to be diagnosed with conditions that are associated with having a higher weight, things like sleep
02:50apnea, kidney disease, cardiovascular disease. That means more people are seeking solutions
02:56to those other diseases. ResMed saw this rise in the number of people needing their machines.
03:02It's complicated, but I think that there's going to be some really big economic shifts
03:06happening in Australia and globally as these medications become more widely available.