14 day outlook presented by Alex Burkill
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00:00Hello, welcome to your latest Met Office 14 day outlook as we look at the forecast further
00:05into winter. Starting off looking at the jet stream because it's a pretty active jet heading
00:10towards the UK through the rest of this week. In fact, as we head through Wednesday evening
00:15overnight into Thursday, the jet could reach speeds of around 250 miles per hour. So very
00:20strong indeed. And it's that strong jet that's going to drive unsettled weather as we go
00:25through the next few days and into the beginning of the weekend. But to look at that in a little
00:29bit more detail, starting off on Wednesday and after a ridge of high pressure to start,
00:34so some fine weather earlier on, things are going to turn wetter and windier due to an
00:39area of low pressure pushing its way in. Later on as we go through into Thursday, another
00:44area of low pressure driven through on that strong jet stream brings more unsettled weather,
00:48a slight quieter day on Friday before another deep air of low pressure is likely to come
00:53in as we go through later Friday and into Saturday. Now, there is some uncertainty as
00:58to the track that this low pressure is going to take. It could be a bit further north and
01:02there's also uncertainty as to how deep, how intense it's going to be. So worth bearing
01:06mind there could be some pretty unsettled weather to come on Saturday, but it's also
01:11possible that the strongest winds, the heaviest rain will be across other parts of Europe
01:15instead. Thereafter, and we're likely to see or very likely to see high pressure building
01:21from the west to southwest. And so while Sunday is still looking pretty changeable, showery
01:25rain, perhaps some sleet and snow coming down from the north, all of that unsettled
01:29weather is going to get pushed away towards the east as we go into the beginning of next
01:33week. We can see that if we look at the most likely regime from ECMWF for next Monday,
01:38the 9th of December, and yes, high pressure building and dominating across much of the
01:43country, though towards the far southeast, we may just about still be clinging onto some
01:47of that showery rain at times. It says up here that this is the most likely regime and
01:53it's very likely indeed. In fact, all of the model members from ECMWF agree that that's
01:59the most likely regime. No guarantee it will definitely come off, but confidence is exceptionally
02:04high for the beginning of next week. This confidence index just shows how exceptionally
02:08high it couldn't be higher for next Monday. And so there's a fairly good chance that we
02:14are going to see that high pressure building for a time. Uncertainty then builds as we
02:18go later on next week. Confidence drops only to around average. But exactly how long that
02:24high lasts, that's where there is a fair bit of uncertainty still. So if we look at next
02:29week as a whole and here is the pressure anomaly chart from ECMWF and it shows that higher
02:34than average pressure is pretty likely across at least the northwest of the UK towards the
02:39southeast less so. But I am expecting that high pressure to gradually move its way towards
02:44the east as we go through next week. Exactly how quickly it does so. That's what there's
02:48still all to play for. If that high pressure clings on for quite a while, you would expect
02:52largely dry weather to be the dominant picture. And this is what this chart here shows. And
02:57with that, because of the direction of the wind around that high coming from the north
03:01northeast at times, it's going to be pretty chilly. So there will be some frosty nights
03:04to come, at least to start next week. But then things are likely to turn more changeable
03:09at some point. So looking at the whole of next week and yes, a more settled start looks
03:14pretty likely. And with that, some cold, frosty nights and could even be quite chilly
03:18by day, despite the fact that could be some winter sunshine around. And then there's likely
03:23to be a change to something more unsettled as we go through the latter part of the week.
03:27But before then, make sure you keep up to date with the forecast as there is some unsettled
03:31weather to come this week. See you later.