Category
đš
FunTranscript
00:00Finland's unique position in the world and why it can't be invaded by Russia
00:06The Ukraine war has been going on for 100 days now. Amidst the tension, Ukraine might
00:12not be the only country facing Russia's wrath. On the sidelines of the Ukraine-Russia crisis,
00:18the ongoing developments in Nordic Europe related to the Ukrainian invasion may just
00:22lead to further instability in the region. Russia is alarmed by its western neighbors,
00:28mostly by Finland, joining the NATO forces. Putin attacked Ukraine to prevent the country
00:33from doing the same, and now, if Finland and Sweden follow the same course, it is a cause
00:38of major worry for the Soviet nation. Russia's foreign ministry expressed its displeasure
00:44on the development, saying that if Sweden and Finland were to become members of NATO,
00:49it would have serious military and political consequences. Russia's response came following
00:54NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg's welcome of the formal application by Sweden
00:59and Finland to join NATO. In an event on May 18, 2022, the ambassadors of the two nations
01:06handed over the applications to Stoltenberg at the NATO headquarters in Brussels. While
01:11Stoltenberg welcomed the move, dubbing it a historic moment, which we must seize, Putin
01:16certainly isn't too happy with it. The applications are now up for discussion by
01:35the 30 member countries. It usually takes about 8 to 12 months for a country to finally
01:41become a member, given there is general consensus on their candidature. But with Russia increasing
01:46the heat, NATO really wants to get this done as quickly as possible, maybe within a month
01:51or two. The Kremlin has clearly expressed its displeasure about the move and threatened
01:56both countries with consequences. However, Russian threats didn't seem to scare either
02:01Finland or Sweden from putting their bids for NATO. Even despite repeated threats from
02:06Russia, Finland is poised to join the US-led NATO military alliance. The Finnish president
02:12and prime minister have already announced the Nordic nation's intention to join the
02:16bloc, calling it a historic day. Finland now seems to ditch its decades of neutrality prompted
02:22directly by Putin's ongoing assault on Ukraine. The historic move, which is also mirrored
02:27by Sweden, will effectively double the length of NATO's land border with Russia. This
02:33is an alarming situation for Russia. But the major question is, can Russia stop Finland?
02:39The accession of Finland and Sweden on NATO, which is primarily a military alliance, can
02:44have serious military and political consequences, which would require Russia to make response
02:50steps. In this video, we'll tell you about how Finland joining NATO might be a hard one
02:55to digest for Russia and if Putin can actually do something about it. But first, let's
03:00look at the historical backdrop.
03:03Both Finland and Sweden chose to remain militarily neutral since the Second World War. However,
03:09the stance changed when they joined the European Union in 1995. But by not joining NATO, both
03:15Finland and Sweden were upholding their policies of military non-alignment until now. However,
03:21over the past few years, the increase in Russian aggression has prompted discussions of a potential
03:26NATO membership for them. Both Finland and Sweden have deep historical, cultural, and
03:32economic ties with Russia. Before 1917, Finland was a part of the current territories of Sweden
03:38and Russia. Before that, until 1809, Finland was a part of Sweden for close to 700 years.
03:46Finland became an autonomous part of the Russian Empire after the Finnish War of 1809. However,
03:52the Winter War of 1939 and the Continuation War of 1941-1944 heavily changed the relations
03:59between Finland and the Soviet Union. Still, Finland's foreign policy positioned it as
04:04a neutral country during the Cold War. This treaty was instrumental in the Finland-Soviet
04:10relations from 1948 until 1992. To honor the treaty and not provoke the Soviet Union, Finland
04:17also declined funding from the Marshall Plan. This treaty was signed under pressure from
04:22the Soviet Union, but the move granted Finland enough freedom to become a prosperous democracy.
04:27And hence, regardless of its difficult history with Russia, Finland chose not to join the
04:32Western Security Alliance. Sweden also has historical relations with
04:37Russia. The country has not joined a military alliance or participated in any war since
04:421814. That is a period of peace spanning over 200 years. After World War II, Sweden was
04:50at a crossroads regarding its foreign policy as traditional powers fell and new powers
04:55arose, but it played smart. Rather than joining the US or the Soviet Union during the Cold
05:01War, the country developed a third way to ensure its defense and regional stability.
05:06It went to countries like Norway and Denmark to strike a neutral alliance, but its attempts
05:11to create a neutral Scandinavian defense alliance failed, with Norway and Denmark choosing to
05:16align with NATO in 1948. Sweden had no other choice but to return to its policy of neutrality
05:23alone. Till now, both Finland and Sweden have maintained that neutrality.
05:29But what do the people of Finland want? Estonia's former president, Tuomas Hendrik Ives, wrote
05:34a paper on the Finland-NATO membership in 2018. The papers indicate that the possibility
05:40of Finland joining NATO depends on how much its citizens want that membership. At that
05:46time, the popular opinion was against membership both in Finland and Sweden. Those opposed
05:51to Swedish-Finnish membership in NATO at the time were of the view that the Nordic countries
05:56could join if things got serious. Of course, the security environments did not call for
06:01joining NATO, but the sentiment was that if the situation were to change, both the countries
06:06would join. The invasion of Ukraine has provided both countries with the opportunity.
06:13Even Finland's prime minister, Saana Märin, had said in January of 2022 that Finland did
06:18not plan to join NATO soon but would be ready to stand with its European allies and the
06:23United States. The clouds of an impending attack on Ukraine were obvious at that point,
06:28and hence, Märin was inclined to impose tough sanctions on Russia if it were to attack Ukraine.
06:34It would have a very substantial impact and the sanctions would be extremely tough, Märin
06:38had said. Märin had also said that Finland can assert its right to join NATO if it chooses
06:44to do so in the future. Nobody can influence us, not the United States, not Russia, not
06:49anyone else, Märin had said. She said her country is not deterred by any Russian nuclear
06:55threats but was instead being driven by them.
07:02I think that within NATO, it gives us security when it comes to nuclear weapons because NATO
07:07also has nuclear weapons, she said. And then, as things turned out, Russia went ahead to
07:12attack Ukraine, and it won't be very pleased with Finland trying to join NATO. Meanwhile,
07:18Finland also took a strong stand against the invasion of Ukraine. Several top officials
07:23of the country have openly condemned Moscow's aggression. Just days before the invasion
07:28started, Finland's president, Sauli Niinisto, compared Putin to Joseph Stalin. He said Putin
07:34is acting with Ukraine in the same way Stalin did with Finland in 1939. And now, Sweden
07:39has also followed suit in its condemnation of the Russian invasion. Both Finland and
07:44Sweden have even offered various kinds of assistance to Ukraine. Just hours after the
07:49invasion started, President Niinisto spoke with Ukraine's President Zelensky and allocated
07:55$50 million in aid on behalf of Finland. Finland's foreign ministry also used the 30th anniversary
08:01of diplomatic relations between the two countries to reaffirm support for Ukraine. The Finnish
08:07MFA tweeted,
08:08Today, we celebrate 30 years of diplomatic relations between Finland and Ukraine. Finland's
08:14support for Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity is firm. Wishing courage and strength
08:19to the leaders and the people of Ukraine during this difficult time. Finland is seeming to
08:24go against all the Russian policies. Hence, it is all but imperative for Moscow to be
08:29concerned with the situation in its western neighborhood.
08:34Why is Finland not in NATO? Of the 27 EU members, Finland is one of just
08:40six that is not also a member of NATO. The other five are Austria, Cyprus, Ireland, Malta,
08:47and Sweden. Finland does have relations with NATO, but up until now has believed it does
08:52not need NATO membership to remain secure. However, Russia's actions may be driving
08:57Finland towards a NATO membership. At the time, even Sweden's foreign minister,
09:03Ann Lind, had said that the government had no such plans. These kinds of sudden changes
09:07based on fairly weak majorities, it's not good. It undermines the credibility of Swedish
09:12security policy. However, now the Swedish Prime Minister, Magdalena Andersson, echoed
09:18Finland's sentiments, telling Sweden's assembled lawmakers that the historic change
09:22in our country's security policy line was needed to secure formal security guarantees
09:27in the wake of Russia's attack on Ukraine.
09:30And Russia's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine is not only illegal and indefensible, it also
09:37undermines the European security order that Sweden builds its security on.
09:42Russia is not too pleased with the development. It has explicitly warned both countries to
09:47stay away from NATO. The Russian foreign ministry took to Twitter to say,
09:52Finland and Sweden should not base their security on damaging the security of other countries,
09:57and their accession to NATO can have detrimental consequences and face some military and political
10:02consequences. We regard the Finnish government's commitment to a military non-alignment policy
10:08as an important factor in ensuring security and stability in Northern Europe.
10:13But both Sweden and Finland are not very stressed about the Russian threat. As the Finnish President
10:18Nia Nisto said, Finland's room to maneuver and freedom of choice also includes the possibility
10:23of military alignment and of applying for NATO membership, should we so decide.
10:29Russia's former Prime Minister, Alexander Stubb, also echoed the same sentiments and
10:33said, at this rate, we have no other option but to join. Even a recent public poll has
10:39suggested the majority of the population also now supports NATO membership.
10:44But why is Russia so threatened? Russia has long considered NATO a threat. Putin
10:50has defended its war in Ukraine mostly to push NATO back from its borders. Now, this
10:55tactic can backfire spectacularly if Finland and Sweden also happen to join NATO. Moscow
11:01has threatened to react with unspecified military technical measures if the Nordic states commit
11:06to the grave mistake of joining NATO. Russia has warned that the general level of
11:12military tensions will increase in Europe if the alliance does expand on Russia's doorstep.
11:17But the threat does not seem to hold much value to Finland. Russia's war on Ukraine
11:22has triggered Finland's decision to join the military alliance, but it also has to
11:26do with a much broader shift in public opinion in the country that can make it politically
11:30possible. Before Putin launched his invasion of Ukraine on February 24th, only around 20%
11:37of Finns supported joining NATO. Now, about 75% do.
11:42The citizens do not seem to believe in Russia anymore, given its expansionist policies,
11:47and hence they would also want a strong alliance partner for their country should Russia happen
11:52to attack their country, too. Finland has had its wars, so it knows what war can do,
11:57and hence it needs to take all the measures to protect its citizens. Russia might bring
12:02another war to Finland's soil, and hence it will always be better to be safe than sorry.
12:07The Russian-Finnish Winter War that took place from 1939 to 1940 created a strong belief
12:13in the military prowess of Finland. Finland also makes adolescent males report for a short
12:18and intense period of military training, meaning it has a large and capable citizen
12:23military reserve. The country also has measures in place for its defense. It has built thousands
12:29of nuclear shelters across many cities in case of a nuclear attack. These shelters are
12:35a legacy of Soviet Russia's invasion of Finland in the early 1940s. There are almost
12:40five and a half thousand shelters in the capital city alone, providing enough space to protect
12:45more than 900,000 people. Russia is a different country today, but its recent aggression against
12:51neighbors has made some Finns glad to have these nuclear bunkers at their disposal. Tomi
12:56Rask of Finland's Civil Defense Department said that, just as Finns aren't afraid to
13:01venture out onto the roads in the Nordic winter thanks to traffic lights, winter tires, and
13:05seatbelts, they are not afraid of a new war with Russia because they are prepared. Joining
13:11NATO, the country's leaders and most of its people now believe will make it even better
13:15prepared. The United States lauded Finnish leaders' decision to seek membership in NATO.
13:21It believes that their participation will further strengthen the alliance. The sheer
13:25speed with which Finland and Sweden are trying to join NATO is unprecedented. But with Russia
13:30getting increasingly isolated and unpredictable, the leaders in both countries are left with
13:35little choice. According to reports, the public support in both Sweden and Finland for joining
13:40NATO has increased over the past few years. In December of 2020, a Swedish parliamentary
13:46majority was in favor of readiness to join NATO as a possible security policy option.
13:52However, the Swedish government remained opposed to such a move. To be granted NATO membership,
13:58the countries would need to demonstrate substantial public support for the move, which is quite
14:02possible now. What are the chances of Russia invading Finland?
14:07Russia has directly warned both Finland and Sweden against joining NATO, threatening
14:12military action. Ukraine joining NATO was also a huge touchpoint in its invasion. But
14:18what are Putin's true intentions? This is a question people across the world are asking,
14:23as his Russian forces continue showering Ukraine with missiles. Very few people on the planet
14:28know the answer. There are fears that President Putin may not stop in Ukraine. He may attempt
14:33to expand his empire into neighboring countries such as Moldova and Georgia. Putin aims to
14:38reverse history and go back to Russia's status as it was over 100 years ago, and this directly
14:44affects other neighbors like Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland. Even the Baltic states,
14:50despite being NATO members, cannot be ruled out. Another potential target is Finland,
14:55which shares an 830-mile border with Russia. With the Ukrainian invasion not reaching any
15:01particular closure as of yet, Finland joining NATO could be a massive problem for Putin.
15:07But he would have to tread rather cautiously. Major world powers have not directly entered
15:12the Ukrainian war as of yet, and they would just be looking at further excuses to counter
15:16Russia globally. And if Putin happens to invade Finland, it would be an ideal opportunity
15:22for the US and the European nations to resort to a full-blown global war. The UK defied
15:28the Russian warnings and had sent medium-range rocket systems to Ukraine at the start of
15:32the conflict. Finland, like Ukraine, is not part of NATO. It is, however, part of the
15:38EU. The EU has a mutual defense clause for any member nation that is a victim of armed
15:43aggression on its territory. This means if Russia were to invade Finland, it could find
15:48itself at war with all 27 EU member states, which could then engage Russian forces directly.
15:55UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss has said Britain will join its Baltic allies in moving from
16:00deterrence to defense on its borders. If Putin starts to slowly expand his empire, there
16:06will be several other NATO members that are going to be getting extremely stressed out.
16:10It's very unclear at this stage that anyone can convince Putin to do anything other than
16:15what he wants to do. Liz further stressed the UK's commitment to the Baltics and Article
16:205, describing it as unyielding. Meanwhile, Russia will also face a threat from NATO if
16:26it chooses to invade Finland. Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are all part of NATO. And NATO
16:33uses a principle of collective defense under Article 5 of its treaty. It means an attack
16:37against one NATO member is considered an attack against all. Liz said the UK is reinforcing
16:44NATO's eastern flank and supporting European security through the UK-led Joint Expeditionary
16:49Force. We are here in the Baltic region. We led and have doubled our enhanced forward
16:54presence in Estonia. Our allies are leading troops across the Baltics.
16:59The Foreign Secretary echoed comments made by Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielas Lansbergas,
17:04who said it is vital the Baltic states move from deterrence to defense. He also went on
17:09to stress the need for a change in political approach. We also need practical means for
17:14that and they are needed for all three Baltic states, so that if Putin decides to test NATO
17:20in this region, it would be responded to right away. It would get a political response and
17:24also a clear defensive response if that would be needed. These comments only imply that
17:29if Russia were to attempt to annex any of the Baltic states, NATO would respond with
17:34full military might, plunging the West into a war with Russia.
17:39What's next? It's not so easy to read Putin's mind. While
17:43the Western powers are applying a lot of pressure on Putin, one can never be too sure of his
17:48intentions. NATO and the EU didn't get too involved directly in the Ukrainian conflict,
17:54but the same can't be said if Putin happens to attack Finland next. It might also be possible
17:59that the US and NATO are just about waiting for this to happen so that they can unleash
18:04their full forces against Russia. Even if Russia is a fully capable state to
18:08annex or invade its Western neighbors, it surely knows that it can blow into a massive
18:16world war, and no state, not even Russia, can afford it. But given the shrewd mind of
18:22Putin, it can be said that he doesn't care about the consequences too much, but he might
18:26have to care about it this time around. What Putin will do next depends heavily on
18:31what Russia can get out of Ukraine. As of now, the invasion seems to be going nowhere
18:36with Ukrainian forces giving Russia a hard time. Will Putin's patience pay off for
18:41him, or will he try to invade Finland and Sweden out of desperation? Well, only time
18:46will tell. Let's see what happens. What do you think? Tell us your views in the
18:51comment section below. Press the like button if you liked this video. Also, tap share to
18:56share it with your friends. Don't forget to subscribe to our channel for more such
19:00videos and we'll be back soon.