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00:00Adam Kaplan is our NFL insider on SportsGrid and on Coast to Coast.
00:05You see him here every Thursday with us, breaking it all down with a double shot, and in the
00:10second segment that we do with him, everyone loves, bust a cap in yo ass.
00:15Speaking of said bust a cap in yo ass, Kaplan went 11-3 against the spread last week, picking
00:24games right here on this very show.
00:26An unbelievable performance as you cleaned out the sportsbooks, which we are always in
00:33favor of.
00:34Yeah, look, it was one of the rare times we've done this show together, what, five years,
00:39that the favorites almost, not all, but almost all come in.
00:44But see, Scott, you and I have talked about this.
00:45The first three to four, maybe sometimes five weeks, a lot of strange things happen, right?
00:51It's hard to predict what's going to happen, and then you start seeing things falling in
00:54a line.
00:55You kind of see injuries, okay, you understand what's happening, you understand what teams
00:59look like.
01:00It's never easy, but it gets easier to predict these things.
01:03And to me, when a team looks like they look, like after five weeks, you kind of know who
01:09they are.
01:10And that's why I felt last week I liked a lot of the favorites.
01:13Now, I don't this week, though.
01:15I like maybe more favorites than not, and we'll talk about the second segment.
01:18But yeah, it is so rare, and the Vegas books got absolutely destroyed last week.
01:23There's no question about it, because again, odds makers kind of know, right?
01:29We've talked about this.
01:30They do a great job.
01:31But when the dogs don't come home, man, and the public rides the favorites like they did,
01:36the books get smoked, and that's what happened.
01:38Well, and then they get even with you the next week.
01:41So this week could end up being a bloodletting.
01:43They always get their money, and that's why they're evil and unholy during this evil month
01:50of Rocktober and for Halloween.
01:53So we'll do your picks in the next segment, but I wanted to bring up a couple of subjects
01:56to you before we talk about tonight's game in New Orleans.
02:01The first of which is the Jets and Adams.
02:05They got the deal done, and now Rodgers has his guy, and the two lovers are together again,
02:13just like they were in Green Bay.
02:15And then the second subject is fields being benched for Russ Wilson in Pittsburgh.
02:22Yeah, look, we'll do Jets first, and ironically, it's in the same game, because the Jets will
02:29play at Pittsburgh Sunday night.
02:30But the bottom line is with the Jets is they're not giving up in the season, despite their
02:34record of two and four.
02:35They've been on Devontae Adams for months.
02:37In fact, it goes back to a year ago.
02:38It's a trade deadline, but they didn't get it done, but they got it done here.
02:42Talking to someone with the Jets, they're pretty happy with the way their offense looked.
02:46Yes, they lost.
02:47Kicker struggle, Greg Zerlein.
02:48They had some issues in the red zone, but they moved the ball really well.
02:51And I know Alan Lazard has been a great story.
02:54He was awful last season.
02:55He gets his guy, Rodgers back.
02:58What kept him on the roster is the $10 million fully guaranteed this season.
03:01That's why he's there.
03:02Did a good job.
03:03He now will be the backup to Adams.
03:05This helps him with not only in the red zone, where they're going to be better, but now
03:09they could play more 11 personnel if they choose to under Todd Downing, their new play
03:13caller.
03:14They're going to spread teams out, and we're going to see this Sunday night when they're
03:17in Pittsburgh.
03:18I can't wait for this matchup because I want to see what this looks like.
03:21Reese Hall looked, by the way, very good in that game, though they lost to Buffalo.
03:25What's troubling about the Jets, though, is their defense.
03:27Where's their run defense?
03:28They're also not getting great pressure on the quarterback.
03:31That's a disappointment.
03:32They don't give a lot of points, but their defense has not been as dominant as we expected.
03:36But that, again, that's going to be a really good game.
03:38And then also on the other side with the Steelers.
03:42Look, I've covered this business 27 years.
03:44I can't remember the last time when a quarterback lost his job with not only a winning record.
03:49I get that Fields doesn't play great.
03:51Early on, he was really good.
03:53Last two games, not as good.
03:54But in four and two, all the indications are that they're going to go back to Wilson, who,
03:58by the way, has had this lingering hamstring problem.
04:01I thought when I was with them for two days, he was over it.
04:03They had a setback before the season started.
04:06Now he's over it.
04:07So it's looking like he's going to get the job.
04:10This rarely happens, Scott.
04:11I went back and thought about this the last couple of days.
04:15Other than when Kurt Warner lost, and by the way, they had Eli Manning, of course.
04:20But in this case, other teams are looking at Justin Fields here for the future, who's
04:25on a one-year deal, as Russell Wilson is.
04:27What kind of future does Russell Wilson have at 35 years old with his football team?
04:30Why not let Justin Fields start?
04:32I don't agree with this.
04:33I think it's a mistake.
04:34Yeah, look, not only that, he has a higher quarterback rating than almost half the league.
04:40He had two tutties against the Raiders.
04:42I thought he played really well.
04:43He was in trouble several times and got out of the pocket and ran for big yardage.
04:49He threw a couple of ropes to pickings in that game and came up big.
04:53They won big.
04:55They scored 32 points, which is another thing they never do.
04:59Last year, they averaged 17 on offense.
05:01This year, they were averaging 20 with him at quarterback.
05:03And he was winning.
05:05And then he gets the reward of all that is he gets benched for a guy that hasn't played
05:09in a year.
05:10It's beyond me.
05:11And then I said earlier on the show today that all this is going to make him do is leave
05:14Pittsburgh.
05:15After one year, he's going to go right out of Pittsburgh and get out and have a job somewhere
05:19else.
05:20All right, let's talk about tonight on Bourbon Street.
05:23The Saints have dropped four in a row.
05:27And they started the season with a couple of big, high-scoring games.
05:31And everyone started saying they were going to the Super Bowl.
05:35And they have looked terrible ever since.
05:38Yeah, and look, Carr's got the oblique injury.
05:41This could be three to four weeks.
05:43Those are really tough.
05:44You know, if he's a baseball pitcher, you're looking at six to eight weeks.
05:48So it's tough to come back from that injury.
05:49Spencer Rattler did a nice job last week.
05:52Here are the rookie from South Carolina who I sold to Senior Bowl.
05:56But let's talk about the Saints first here.
06:00They're down a minimum of two offensive linemen on the interior.
06:03Both starting receivers.
06:04Alavi's out with a concussion.
06:05You can't play after four days with a concussion.
06:08You're not going to get cleared on the protocol.
06:10And then Rasheed Shaheed, their best deep threat, he won an IR today with a significant
06:13knee injury.
06:14So they're going to go with Bub Means, a rookie out of University of Pittsburgh.
06:18Had a nice game last week.
06:19And Cedric Wilson, a veteran, a journeyman receiver.
06:21They're really light on depth at receiver.
06:24That does concern me.
06:25You've got a couple injuries at linebacker on defense.
06:28That's an issue.
06:29So here's something I don't understand.
06:31You talked about how great their offense was.
06:33Now it's really struggling.
06:35I know their defense gave up 51 last week.
06:38But let's face it, Scott.
06:39How are they going to score?
06:40It's going to be hard for them to score.
06:42The total Denver, by the way, is three and a half.
06:44The total is 37.
06:46To me, the play is under.
06:47I don't see how in the world the Saints are going to score against, by the way, a pretty
06:50good Denver defense.
06:51Well, I mean, they got smoked last week and Baker put 50-some on them, but they still
06:58scored 20-something.
07:00And there's no Patrick Sertan tonight.
07:03I saw Denver's vaunted defense that everyone says is so wonderful and, you know, they're
07:10like the Jets.
07:11All I hear about is how great they are, and yet they lose at home to the Chargers give
07:16up 23.
07:18That game went over.
07:19And then the Saints game went way over.
07:22So I don't buy any of that, that there's not going to be scoring tonight because guys are
07:26injured.
07:27I'll tell you why they'll be scoring is no Patrick Sertan, which means their back end
07:30is weak without it.
07:32Yeah, and look, they are going to get Barron Browning back off of injured reserve.
07:37This just happened within the last hour.
07:39He comes off IR, and he's a good football player.
07:41Mike McGlinchey, by the way, will be back at right tackle.
07:44That helps Denver tonight.
07:46But look, this is one of those games where early on it looked like with Denver's turnaround
07:51it looked like a good game.
07:52But New Orleans, as you mentioned, they've lost four in a row.
07:55They're struggling moving the football.
07:56Again, they're down two starting receivers.
07:59A lot of 12 personnel tonight.
08:01Ten ends are going to have to be involved.
08:02Foster Moreau has done a nice job.
08:04And don't forget to take some hills out again with a very bad rim injury.
08:07And boy, that is, by the way, one of the big reasons why they're not scoring is his absence.
08:13Boy, do they, he looked awesome before those injuries.
08:17Yeah, without Carr, without Hill, I mean, they're naked.
08:21Yeah, it's going to be harder for them.
08:24You and I don't see this the same way.
08:25I think this is a low scoring game, to be honest with you.
08:28Well, we'll see what happens.
08:29Do you like Spencer Rattler at all?
08:32Do you think he has a future in the league?
08:34Yeah, Solomon's a senior ball.
08:36Good arm.
08:37He's not the biggest guy in the world, but he's an aggressive thrower.
08:39I thought he did a good job considering the injuries they had last week.
08:42I thought he did a really good job.
08:45This thing, boy, their offense was unbelievable for the first two weeks.
08:50But, you know, the other thing is, Scott, since Sean Payton retired, they're not very
08:53good at home.
08:54They're just a very average football team, now middling, and they're spiraling out of
08:58control here.
08:59Denver, right now, looks like a team that could get the job done.
09:01Well, we'll see.
09:02A big party tonight with Sean Payton coming back and Drew Brees getting honored.
09:08So we'll see how that plays out on Prime tonight on Thursday Night Football.
09:12Adam Kaplan is very popular on Coast to Coast, and fans love Bust a Cap in Your Ass.
09:18We'll get his picks.
09:1911-3 last week against the spread, and he hasn't bathed since because he's so hot he
09:26doesn't want to cool off.
09:28So he just went the whole week without anything.
09:31He used like Mando, just full-body deodorant, and he got away with it.
09:35You can follow him on Accent Kaplan NFL.
09:37All right, first, we've got to break down a couple of things.
09:40Key game injury updates, because there's a couple of huge games.
09:42Why don't we start with the Texans going to Lambeau to see Love and the Packers?
09:47Yeah, and this concerns me for the Texans.
09:49I know they're 5-1 playing great football.
09:51They annihilated the Patriots last week.
09:53In the second, Kamari Lassiter, the rookie, he's got a shoulder injury, doesn't look good.
09:58That worries me.
09:59Jimmy Ward, who plays safety, could also play nickel.
10:03He's got a groin injury, doesn't look good for either of those guys.
10:05Green Bay, by the way, have been all sorts of banged up.
10:08Three of their receivers are hurt, but they're expecting at least two of them to play.
10:12They played through some stuff last week.
10:14Jordan Love is on absolute fire after a bad game in Week 1 when he suffered that MCL sprain
10:19against the Eagles.
10:20They're playing great football right now.
10:21The Packers are really turning things around, and their defense also is a great story under
10:26Jeff Halfley, the former Boston College head coach.
10:30You know, I got to tell you, I was talking about them earlier on the show, that they're
10:34really tough to play at Lambeau.
10:37And Love, once he got his confidence going, dobs a couple of tutties last week.
10:42They are going to give the Texans all they can handle, don't you think, in that game?
10:46I mean, don't give me your pick yet, but don't you think that they're better prepared for
10:50this game than they were with the problems that they were having before when he was out?
10:54Yes, and now they could spread it out.
10:56On your point, you could spread the Texans out.
10:58They're not very deep in the corner.
10:59The advantage clearly with the Packers, but I got to give that you never count Houston
11:03out.
11:04They're really well-coached.
11:05D'Amico Ryan's one of the best young head coaches in the National Football League, and
11:08that is an awesome game, man.
11:10The Texans, what a turnaround job they've done.
11:13Under GM Nick Casario, you and I have talked about him for a long time, but he's drafted
11:17well.
11:18He signed the right for agents.
11:19Do you think, Adam, that the North is the best division in football this year?
11:23Thirteen wins in a row for those four teams.
11:25Yeah, still, boy, Baltimore, after that 0-2 start, people are like, what's going on?
11:30They bucked the trend.
11:31Teams 0-2 since 1990, a very small percentage of getting the playoffs, but the Ravens have
11:36turned it around.
11:37Your Steelers, I don't know how they're doing it.
11:39I don't know how they're doing it.
11:41Cleveland's terrible, but getting back to that division, the NFC North, the Minnesota's
11:47a team.
11:48Like, who saw this?
11:50You've got to be kidding me.
11:51Absolutely kidding me.
11:52By the way, Aaron Jones has got a hamstring injury.
11:54You've got to watch that for the running back for the Vikings.
11:56Yeah, I can't wait to see who you're taking in that Lions-Vikings game.
12:00We'll get to that.
12:01Let's break down the other good one at Raymond James.
12:04The Ravens come calling to see Baker Mayfield in the box.
12:07I think Baker Mayfield is an absolute badass.
12:11What he did to the Saints was just literally chew and spit them out.
12:16I love watching this guy hook up with Evans and Godwin and even Otten.
12:20He's got it all going with the Bucs.
12:23Break down this one.
12:24Yeah, he's a baller, man.
12:25He's super competitive.
12:26Talking to the Bucs, they love his leadership, his fire.
12:29Guys rally around him.
12:30He's a great teammate, very supportive.
12:32It's been a great story for Jason Lane, the general manager, like finding his quarterback
12:36who's still young enough.
12:37And you could always play well into your 30s at quarterback, and he's doing a phenomenal
12:42job.
12:43Now, Baltimore comes in healthy.
12:44How have they been able to turn their season around?
12:46Very, very healthy.
12:47Derrick Henry, absolutely unbelievable.
12:51This ability to mash Jacksons with RPOs with Derrick Henry, no one's been able to stop
12:56it.
12:57Their pass game's great.
12:58Lamar Jackson, after a slow start, is playing great football.
13:01Their defense still worries me in the secondary.
13:03They're not playing great back there.
13:05The front's really good.
13:06By the way, that's why they're a favorite, though.
13:09They're on an absolute roll.
13:10By the way, they're minus 3.5 in this game, 49.5.
13:14The Bucs, this concerning, Mike Evans, Scott, he's had concussion, excuse me, concussion,
13:20hamstring problems throughout his career.
13:22This does worry me.
13:23He didn't practice today.
13:24Now, this is their first practice.
13:25Jermell Dean, one of the best corners, he's also got a hamstring injury.
13:28Rashad White, how about, and with his foot injury, he didn't play last week.
13:32How about Sean Tucker, a non-drafted free agent out of Syracuse last season?
13:36I starred him in a fantasy last week.
13:38Can you believe that?
13:39I was forced to.
13:40I had a couple of running backs who were hurt, but Sean Tucker, number 44.
13:43He's now in the running back rotation no matter what happens for the Buccaneers.
13:47You're right.
13:48This is an absolute great game where the Ravens come on an absolute roll here.
13:51All right.
13:52Bust a cap in your ass.
13:53We start in London with the Pats and Jags, Jacksonville laying 5.5.
13:59I call this the anemic ball.
14:00Both teams are terrible.
14:02Like the Jaguars to find a way to win.
14:04Boy, they were awful last week.
14:05The Patriots.
14:06Hey, you know what?
14:07Drake Mayne did a good job.
14:08He's a little bit better than I expected him to be, but the Patriots can't move the football.
14:11The Jags will find a way to cover this number.
14:13Seattle at Atlanta at the Benz.
14:15Atlanta laying 3.
14:16Yeah.
14:17Seattle's come down to earth after that 3-0 start.
14:19They've lost 3.
14:21Their pass rush is a problem.
14:24Atlanta's playing efficient football.
14:25They're finding ways to win.
14:26It's always hard to win in Atlanta for the road team.
14:28I like Atlanta to handle this number.
14:31Buffalo laying 9.5 at home in Orchard Park against Tennessee with Amari Cooper on the
14:37roster.
14:38You know, we've talked about this all season.
14:42Dogs getting 7.5 or more, covering at an unbelievable rate, but the Titans are a terrible football
14:46team.
14:47The quarterback, Will Levis, is struggling.
14:48I like the Bills to roll by 10 or more.
14:51Cincy laying 5.5 at the Dog Pound against the Browns.
14:55Cincy played better.
14:56The defense was better.
14:57They had a couple of breakdowns on offense, but they're going to handle the Browns and
15:01Sean Watson, who should be benched.
15:03Houston at Green Bay.
15:05Green Bay laying 2.5 at Lambeau.
15:08I like Green Bay to handle this number.
15:09This should be a good one.
15:10I'm concerned about the Texans' injuries in the secondary.
15:12We just talked about them.
15:13Green Bay, they're a better football team right now.
15:14I'd like them to cover the number.
15:16Indy laying 3 at Lucas Oil against the Dolphins.
15:20Dolphins coming off the bye, but they're not getting good quarterback play.
15:24It's too bad Flacco doesn't look like Flacco's going to start, but, boy, the Colts have injury
15:28issues.
15:29This is not a good game for either team.
15:30I think it's close.
15:31I'd like the Colts to cover.
15:32All right, we've got a haul ask.
15:34Detroit and Minnesota at the bank.
15:35Minnesota laying 1.5.
15:37I'm concerned about the Hutchinson injury.
15:39I'd like Minnesota to cover this.
15:41Vail.
15:42Philly at the Giants.
15:44Philly laying 3 at Snoopy.
15:46Both teams, major injury issues.
15:48I'd like the Eagles to rebound here and play better than the Giants and handle the number.
15:51Vegas at the Rams.
15:53Rams laying 6.5 at SoFi.
15:56Like the Rams to come out of the spy and cover this number.
15:59Carolina at Washington at the dump in Landover.
16:02Commanders laying 8.
16:04Washington blowout.
16:06Kansas City at the Niners.
16:08Niners laying 1.5.
16:10Like the Niners to give the Chiefs their first loss.
16:13Jets, Steelers.
16:14Steelers getting 2 in Pittsburgh.
16:17I'm going to the well again with the Jets.
16:19Jets are going to find a way to win this and cover it.
16:21Oh, you and yours, Kaplan.
16:23Go watch Philly replay games, you iota.
16:27You and yours, son of a...