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00:00Ali Vayez is the director of the Iran Research Program at the International Crisis Group
00:06in Washington.
00:07He joins us for more now.
00:09What can we expect?
00:11What's the next action we could expect from Iran in this?
00:16Well, Iran's options now range from unattractive to unpalatable, really, because Hezbollah
00:24was always supposed to be the shield to protect Iran against Israel and the United States.
00:30But now Iran is in a situation that if it wants to protect whatever remains of Hezbollah,
00:37it risks exactly that, ending up in a war against much more conventionally powerful
00:44militaries like Israel and the United States.
00:48Now, Iran's Supreme Leader, Jalal Khamenei, has called for a strong response and also
00:53called on Muslims to stand by the people of Lebanon and Hezbollah.
00:58And what did he mean by stand by Hezbollah with whatever means?
01:04Look, I think it's really just empty rhetoric, because if it is a call for jihad of all Muslims
01:12coming out and standing up to Israel, there is clearly no appetite for that anywhere.
01:17Israel has proven to be stopping at nothing in order to reestablish security in the north.
01:26And nobody is as well organized as Hezbollah.
01:31And already Hezbollah has been taken by surprise with this kind of shock and awe operation
01:36that we have seen from the Israelis.
01:40And therefore, I think there is a degree of disarray.
01:43If there is to be any kind of retaliation, it will have to come from whatever capabilities
01:49Hezbollah still has.
01:51The question is whether it can, in the short run, be able to put its house in order, get
01:56its act together, and use its capabilities.
02:00Because deterrence in general is about your ability to use some of the capabilities that
02:06you have, otherwise you would lose them.
02:08And this is really that moment, both for Iran and Hezbollah.