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00:00It is time now for your week 4 NFL Sunday slate pick six live right here on this football Friday on the early line
00:07He is Joe. I am Ben
00:09We both deliver a six-pack of bets again the categories for the pick six
00:15If this is your foot first football Friday
00:17Or just need a reminder our favorite touchdown score to find paydirt this weekend a moneyline
00:23underdog in the year of the dog in the NFL to win outright our favorite under of the weekend in
00:29Line of the weekend, hopefully with some plus money a yardage prop that we enjoy and we combine forces
00:37for a two-leg
00:38Six-point teaser where again Joe I have not been holding up my end of the bargain
00:44I thought the Chargers plus seven and a half last week was an easy one of the game featuring
00:48Thirty five and a half for a total against the Steelers game went under Chargers lost by ten
00:54I've really been screwing the pooch on that one
00:56So we'll continue going around here for our pick six
00:59But you have the honors my friend your favorite TD score of the weekend is who and in what game?
01:06bar, so
01:07Keeping it simple here. There is probably no bigger revenge game on the board here then in week four then
01:15Aaron
01:16Jones heading back to Lambeau here only wearing a different uniform
01:22In this one here and I have no doubt that we are going to get enough carries here
01:28And O'Connell feeding him in order to get him to do one of those Lambeau leaps
01:33But only this time the Vikings uniform not a Green Bay uniform
01:38So I like him on an anytime touchdown at at plus money
01:44He has already talked about seeing the Green Bay stands and the fans and what might he do if he does in fact?
01:51Find pay dirt. He has scored twice this year a rushing touchdown in the opener against the Giants was really good last week nearly
01:59150 scrimmage yards
02:01102 on the ground 46 as a receiver and a receiving touchdown as well Joe
02:07I like the look I think they will be trying to feed Aaron Jones in this game
02:12Against the Green Bay Packers my favorite touchdown score of the weekend is Marvin Harrison jr
02:18Even money plus 100 in a game that features the highest total of the weekend in
02:23Arizona the Cardinals will host the commanders for reasons
02:26I think you're gonna highlight in your pick six in terms of the hard edge prop
02:29I'll just stress a few here Marvin Harrison jr
02:33Three receiving scores in his last two games after only a single grab in his debut week
02:39Number one Washington has the second worst pass defense in the NFL this year nearly 256 per game
02:44They had the worst passing defense in the NFL a season ago. I think Carla Murray is going to have a big day
02:50I think Marvin Harrison jr. Is going to have a big day. I think Marvin Harrison jr. Does find his way to pay dirt again
02:58I know you will have more to say on that game for your favorite yardage prop of the weekend
03:02But it's been a year the dog so far Joe through three weeks of this NFL season and even a dog
03:08Covering to start week four on that closing line last night between the Giants and the Cowboys
03:14What is your favorite money line underdog to win out right of week four?
03:18Yes, so I'll keep it simple
03:20we talked about this early in the show Ben is that I don't want to get up and
03:25On Monday and be like wow, you know
03:27I can't believe I didn't bet the Buffalo Bills on the money line at plus money because I don't know how many more times
03:34We're gonna have an opportunity to do that. I get the best playing right now through the first three weeks of the season
03:42There is no better quarterback than Josh Allen the offensive line also doing a great job of protecting him
03:48We've got major issues not only on the offensive line of the Ravens
03:53Which is a problem given the fact that von Miller and company are healthy and they're getting after the quarterback
03:59And you couple in the fact that that secondary is extremely vulnerable of the Ravens
04:05I like him to rip them apart in the middle of the field expect big days from the tight ends and
04:12Expect Buffalo to win this game at plus money
04:15Yeah, I think it's a really good look Joe
04:16We've talked about Buffalo and what they have done as an underdog since they started winning divisional titles in
04:242020 only 14 times eight and six against the number including already once this year week number two
04:30Outright catching nearly a field goal in Miami
04:34Against the Dolphins. They are getting two and a half here
04:38Against the Ravens a really big game for Baltimore if they are to lose at home in the charm City
04:43the flock will fall to one and
04:45Three, that's a lot of ground to make up in the competitive AFC North
04:49And of course just in the overall AFC postseason picture after the opening month of this NFL season my moneyline underdog
04:57Don't love it didn't love a lot of dogs this week
05:00Couldn't get behind the five and a half point dogs or greater to win outright. I just kept poking holes at first
05:07I had the Rams plus three in Chicago didn't love that don't love this one
05:12I will preface with that, but I don't think the Raiders should be laying a number to anybody right now
05:17And it's just a point and a half. So I'm gonna go Cleveland plus 110
05:21The Browns have terrible terrible offensive line issues to start and you would actually think that's the strength for Las Vegas
05:28Max Crosby and the boys Christian Wilken up front get after to Sean Watson who was sacked eight times last week
05:34By the Giants as I say this I further do not love it
05:38But Cleveland's only win this year as an underdog on the road against Jacksonville
05:44in fact under Kevin Stefanski
05:46Cleveland is 16 15 and 1 against the spread as a dog since the start of 2020
05:5111 of those 16 covers and outright victory
05:54if Cleveland is ever going to figure it out if Deshaun Watson is ever going to figure it out if
05:59Kevin Stefanski is the offensive line
06:01We give him credit for being two-time NFL coach of the year figured things out with Joe Flacco last year to earn a playoff spot
06:07They have to accommodate the offensive line woes and make the Sean Watson even into a serviceable
06:15Quarterback, so I'm not sure if you saw this earlier in the week
06:17The Browns have had a laundry list a CVS receipt type
06:22Amount of quarterbacks play for them since the turn of the Millennium into Sean Watson has the third to last in the worst
06:31seasons in terms of drop-back EPA
06:34Expected points added out of any of those quarterbacks third last worst only Brady Quinn with some slender
06:43Sandwiched in between it has been abysmal for Cleveland offensively. They've had a week to prepare
06:48Understanding their offensive line woes. They got to figure it out this week in Las Vegas
06:53Yeah
06:54and it starts with
06:55Not having to Sean Watson being sacked the most of any quarterback in the NFL for three weeks sixteen times
07:01And he is under constant duress. So that's a recipe for disaster
07:06Can they contain Max Crosby will big be the big issue if they can?
07:11Then yes, they are very much a live dog in this spot on the road, man
07:16Gotta make those adjustments week to week Kevin Stefanski is paid to do so
07:21Sean Watson was asked about more design run plays to take some of the onus off the banged-up. Oh lion
07:26He said I'm not a running back brother. You got your guaranteed money. Go lay the body out
07:30Yeah on the line, please
07:32Will ya favorite under of the weekend Joe Ranieri you talked about this when we broke down the NFC South showdown
07:38Earlier in the week. It was your first bet of week. Number four. What's the game? Yep
07:44Yeah first bet here I love the under in the Atlanta and the New Orleans game it was 43 and a half
07:50It's down to 42 42 and a half and I still like it because I think the first one to 20 is gonna win this game
07:57I still don't buy Kurt Cousins and I know Kurt Cousins
08:02Since he leads the league and under thrown ball so far this year
08:05He's still having a hard time with that torn Achilles on planting it and throwing off of it, Ben
08:12I do think of course the defense of the New Orleans Saints is gonna take away Drake London with motion
08:19Lattimore which means it's gonna be the Bijan Robinson show for offense and the problem with that is we're talking about a top-five
08:26Defense against the rush here in New Orleans
08:29Yeah, we already saw how you slow down the New Orleans offense last week with the Eagles. They gave us the blueprint
08:35I think this has got 2013 2014 written all over it
08:40You know Joe again, I have said it I was going to look at Atlanta scoring output for a reason
08:45I was probably going to circle their games each and every weekend to try to bet overs hasn't happened
08:50The Falcons ended out week three as one of eight teams to play all three of their games
08:55To an under so far this year believe me. I've been chasing
08:59I chased it in week number two Monday night against the Eagles under I chased it last week against the Chiefs
09:06Under despite 30 points at the break. All right, I won't get into it. The Falcons have spurred. Yes. I agree
09:12I think we see a lack of scoring on Sunday in the egg
09:16My favorite under the pick six continues next our week for Sunday slate pick six
09:22Continues live right here on this football Friday on the early line on SportsGrid
09:28Joe gave you his favorite under of the weekend right before the break Saints Falcons under
09:3342 and a half
09:35I'm going to Indianapolis Steelers and the Colts under 39 and a half much like the Falcons
09:43The Steelers are one of eight teams that end out week number three with all three of their games
09:49Trending toward the under and not just under in all three Joe
09:53But by the largest under margin in the National Football League by nearly two touchdowns twelve point eight points per game
09:59Alright, what are the numbers been? Have they been high like they have been for the Falcons?
10:03No, the Steelers have had the two lowest totals of each of the past two weekends and they're still considerably
10:10Under the Pittsburgh Steelers are the best scoring defense in the National Football League
10:14The only team allowing less than ten points per game on average through the opening three weeks now you said
10:22Anthony Richardson's right arm has to be the difference for Indianapolis to hand the Steelers their first loss of this year
10:28I would say yeah, I just don't trust it less than a 50% completion percentage
10:34Okay
10:34So Jonathan Taylor has been pretty good the Steelers tied for the second best rushing defense in the NFL
10:40Allowing just over 71 yards per game all to say Joe points at a premium
10:45Even if Indy does pull off the slight upset, I'm staying under 39 and a half
10:50Yeah, and then we've said it and we've noted it on this show before
10:55Then when it comes to Mike Tomlin on the road
10:59And and what happens there? He tends to shall we say get a little a little
11:07Conservative and nobody has been more profitable to the under than Tomlin
11:12And there's no reason to change that
11:1456 23 and 2 to the under in road games in the last 10 years under Tomlin also
11:19To an already under on the road this year. Let's make it three and all on the road, man
11:24And substantially so only 28 points well under 42 and a half week one in Atlanta only
11:3119 under 36 and a half again. It was the lowest number of week two
11:36Against the Denver Broncos. All right alt line. Am I reading this correctly is Joe and every looking at a kicker prop for the weekend
11:44I know it's disgusting
11:47But this is also the one game here Ben in which I
11:51Think the most points are going to be scored this weekend and anybody
11:55looking at the lines knows the highest price on the board is with Washington and Arizona and
12:02I love Prater to get plenty of
12:05Field goals here. He's actually had two or more field goals in three straight games to start the year here
12:11We've already seen Washington in that defense not be very good
12:16In fact, I think they've given up three field goals to Tampa and to Cincinnati
12:22Already the Giants while that's what can't talk about that because they didn't have a field goal kicker
12:27Otherwise, they would have had more field goals in that one as well
12:30I think Prater since Kyler Murray has returned midway through last season
12:36He has been obviously a much better kicker getting two and a half or more field goals three field goals in this game
12:44I don't think it's a big-ass what a line that's totaled at more than 50 points
12:49Highest total of the weekend love giving a little kicker love here on the show my alt line of the weekend
12:56CJ Stroud three plus passing touchdowns at plus
13:01270 against Jacksonville now Stroud has been prolific of course ran away with the offensive rookie of the year award
13:08Led Houston to an AFC South crown and a playoff victory, but his only thrown for three touchdowns in a game
13:15Twice in his career the postseason against the Browns
13:18He had three last year in the regular season in November against the Buccaneers. He had five
13:24Jacksonville was the third worst passing defense in the National Football League Josh Allen had four passing scores last week
13:31Against this Jags team. He's the only good quarterback
13:34They've played so far this year to a tongue-in-by-loan not great in week number one and Deshaun Watson stinks
13:40So you might be thinking alright not a great sample size
13:43Despite the fact the Jags have been getting taken advantage of through the air Joe
13:47You said it earlier six and a half is the number Houston favorite. They're gonna run the football
13:52They're gonna win this game comfortably. No, I think we're in for a little bit of a shootout in H town on Sunday
13:57I think this game is close
13:58I think the passing
14:00Component has to be good for the Texans if they are going to even escape with an outright win
14:05Against Jacksonville on Sunday. Give me CJ sprout three plus passing touchdowns with a big plus money sprinkler plus 270
14:13He's not gonna have a choice because I don't think this is gonna be the best effort
14:17You're gonna get all year from Jacksonville in this game against Houston
14:22He might not have a choice then but to start airing it out early and often in that game. Yeah. Yep
14:29So Joe we talked about it earlier for my anytime TD prop even money plus
14:33100 on the rookie wide out the fourth overall pick from Ohio State
14:37Marvin Harrison jr. Because the commanders are not a good defense, especially
14:42Defending the pass so Marvin Harrison jr. Going to find the end zone and I would say end up with at least 68 receiving yards, correct
14:50Yeah, I mean it opened up at 67 and a half and that's just way too low
14:55Especially given the fact looks like Trey McBride not going to be in this game with a true concussion
15:00You're seeing his targets go from 3 to 8 to 11
15:04And we also just saw number one receivers against Washington secondary Malik neighbors 10 for a buck
15:1127 jamar chase 6 4 1 18. Oh hell. No. Yes. I think early and often here as well
15:18This has got a hundred yard day written all over it for him
15:22And
15:2367 and a half is no longer there to Joe's point. That's where it's opened. It's already up
15:29That's substantial for a prop on a Friday ahead of an NFL Sunday slate already up by four yards
15:36to 71 and a half
15:39Oh and in week number one Baker Mayfield threw for 289 yards and four touchdowns
15:45Against this commanders defense. Yeah, it's been pretty easy to throw against Washington so far
15:51This year my favorite yardage prop also a receiving yards number
15:56It's Khalil Shakir Sunday night against Baltimore over forty eight and a half now part of this has been the Ravens
16:04In the game scripts that we have seen they were so far out in front last week
16:09against Dallas the Cowboys added up a ton of yards back through for nearly
16:14380 because they were up double digits against Gardner Minshew and the Raiders Las Vegas through
16:20For a ton, but Baltimore is the worst passing defense in the National Football League at this moment
16:27And they have not been a good scoring defense either
16:29I'll tell you on the other side why Khalil Shakir is going to take advantage for Buffalo on Sunday night
16:35And then a teaser that will hit this weekend. Yeah. All right
16:40Let's finish out our pick six for the Sunday slate in week number four around the National Football League
16:46He is Joe Ranieri. I am Ben Stevens
16:48We are soon to get to our two-leg six-point teaser that I have not held up my end of the bargain
16:54I have missed out on my leg each of the opening three weekends of this NFL season not in week number four
17:01But before I get there Joe
17:03I was just talking about Khalil Shakir over forty eight and a half receiving yards for Buffalo Sunday night football against the Ravens
17:09The flock currently the worst passing defense in the National Football League and Khalil Shakir
17:16In this reworked offensive rotation and wide receiver room in Western, New York has been Josh Allen's top target
17:24He's been over this number of forty eight and a half with at least fifty four in each of the past two weeks
17:29In fact, he is Buffalo's leading receiver
17:32He is the only guy Joe with at least a hundred yards and the only guy Joe with at least ten
17:40Receptions this season for the Bills they haven't had to do much the last few weeks
17:47Offensively and that contributes to the lack of stats. I think everybody
17:51Offensively, but Khalil Shakir in this reworked lineup has been Josh Allen's top target
17:57I think it continues against the Baltimore defense that has a lot to prove on Sunday night in the Charm City
18:03And he's a matchup nightmare for a secondary
18:06Band that is there's an awful lot of holes in the middle of that field here and coming out of the slot
18:11That's a recipe for disaster. I'm with you. I think that's a huge connection this week in that game
18:19And I still think you're getting numbers that say who is Josh Allen's favorite receiver. That's not Steph Diggs. That's not Gabe Davis
18:26It's not the guys that we know. I think we can take advantage on Sunday night
18:31All right, two-leg six-point teaser. Here we go. Ranieri. Where are you going first?
18:37All right, I'm gonna keep this very simple I think this is blowout regardless
18:41So I am gonna tease the New York Jets down to minus one
18:47from the current line of
18:49Seven even if it goes to seven and a half still one and a half
18:53Listen, the Broncos did not go home
18:56They are practicing this week in West Virginia rather than flying back home because they were in Tampa and pulled off that
19:03Upset win last Sunday. The Jets are on extra rest here because they played on
19:10Thursday night last week also keep in mind
19:14The offensive coordinator for the New York Jets is named Nathaniel Hackett
19:20He was the former
19:22Head coach of the Denver Broncos before Sean Payton got there and Sean Payton was nice enough to criticize him
19:28You may recall about how terrible he was and they beat him last year in week five
19:35Without Aaron Rodgers and they dropped 31 to 21. They beat him
19:40What do you think is gonna happen this go-around with Hackett having his quarterback under center here?
19:47This is gonna get ugly Ben. Give me the Jets
19:50And it wasn't just Sean Payton taking uncalled-for shots against Nathaniel Hackett who was not good in
19:572022 fired after 15 games
19:59It was also Aaron Rodgers standing up for his guy in Nathaniel Hackett taking shots back at Sean Payton
20:07He did not get the shot to make those shots have some backing from his own performance last year
20:14But a little bit of rivalry bad blood
20:16I guess you could say although not rivals technically a little bit of bad blood between these two
20:21Organizations and the key factors and individuals in it. I didn't actually even think about that Joe
20:26I like that and it's the premise that you use there that I take with me for my leg of the teaser that must hit
20:33This week it can't not right. We can't lose another one
20:37You take seven down through those two key numbers of seven and three
20:43I do the same the Chiefs down to a point favorite on the road in LA against the Chargers
20:49It's not even Justin Herbert that really I'm concerned about
20:53It's the fact that Justin Herbert's offensive linemen are not healthy if he is hobbled
20:59All right
20:59Maybe he can't move around the pocket as much if the guys that are tasked with keeping him upright
21:04Cannot against a good Chiefs defense to start that's bad
21:08Alright out of the Chargers keep this game close running the football as we see saw them do prolifically in the first two weeks
21:15Well, if your offensive line is banged up who's leading the way for JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards
21:21I think Casey wins this game comfortably. I'll take it down to just having to win by two points or more
21:27And I agree and listen, by the way, Kansas City's red zone offense has been terrible
21:32Uh, and so I don't see them running up to score on anybody here Ben. So I love that play as well
21:39Joveneri
21:40Appreciate your time as always on this Friday. We'll talk tomorrow during college football in-game live
21:46Game day, you'll see Joe starting at noon Eastern Time
21:49I'll be there on college football today with Joe Lisi and Kevin Walsh at 9 a.m
21:54Eastern in terms of the early line. We'll talk to you Monday 8 a.m. Eastern. Have a great weekend