The Race for the 6th Generation Bomber

Millennium7* History & Technology

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Transcript

00:00Ok, the US got there first. With the official presentation of the B-21 Raider at the end of

00:062022, the United States have shown that the first 6th generation bomber will be American. But this

00:13is not a race that you win if you cross the line ahead of the others, this is a race that never

00:18stops. In my perception the B-2 was always one of a kind, a niche platform whose job was to hit

00:30very difficult and high paying targets. And when the rumors surfaced that China and Russia were

00:38actually considering building a stealth bomber, it was sort of the mid 2000s, well I thought it

00:44was the just usual technology race. Even if you have no targets to hit, the technology advancement

00:52required for such a project is a reason good enough to pursue it. The job of precision attack

00:59of high paying targets is increasingly becoming a business for ballistic and cruise missiles.

01:06A piloted platform is more versatile and comes with added benefits, like acting as an ISR platform

01:12or a network node. But where the target is known and unmovable, and many strategic targets actually

01:19are, long-range weapons often do a better job, with less risk involved. Obviously if you combine the two,

01:26if you combine stealth and long-range weapons, well that's where the game becomes interesting.

01:32In 2009 the Russian Ministry of Defense awarded Tupolev for the first research and development

01:39contract for a future stealth bomber. In 2011 the United States Air Force started the LRS-B

01:48program, that in the end will evolve into the B-21 Raider. In 2016 the Chinese Air Force announced

01:54that they had been working on a stealth bomber for some time. Of all these programs only the B-21

02:01is known to be in an advanced state, and we have already discussed this aircraft in another video

02:06on the channel, link above and below. The Russian aircraft, the PAK DA, seem to be more or less on schedule

02:12according to the news that have been released. In particular the engine seems to be ready and

02:18the prototype is being assembled. The first flight was planned for 2023, but it's difficult to say if

02:24the current situation is going to delay the program. It seems that the acquisition of the new

02:30Tupolev 160M2 is obviously taking precedence, but it isn't clear if this is going to strain

02:36Tupolev resources and delay the PAK DA. By the way, I find quite interesting that Russia could

02:44resume without too many problems the production of a bomber for an order of just 50 units, while

02:51the United States considered impossibly expensive to resume the F-22 production. This is good food

02:58for thought. The status of the Chinese H-20 is unknown. The occasional picture, the occasional

03:06render do emerge, but we really don't know what the Chinese are doing. Satellites took a picture

03:13of what seemed to be a mock-up for electromagnetic interference tests, and that's probably the most

03:19reliable piece of information that we have on this program. A screenshot from an Alij TV program

03:25actually has circulated outside China. It was showing part of a large aircraft that looked like

03:33a stealth bomber. It could have been a technology demonstrator, but many analysts believe that the

03:39picture is not authentic. It actually looks real, but probably is just very good computer graphics.

03:45Xi'an Group, which is building the aircraft, also took the trouble to troll Northrop Grumman,

03:53publishing a picture very similar to the one Northrop Grumman used to tease the reveal of the

04:01B-21. Sir, I am vibrantly protesting this decision. Notice you're not hacking anyone's computer,

04:08whatever the nationality may be. We keep making videos about aircraft that have very little

04:15confirmed news, and you are forbidding me to investigate with my connections.

04:19Because I'm pretty sure that this house will be the first target of those bombers if you do.

04:27Oh, I understand. Sir, you have a problem with the landlord.

04:32I hate to admit it, but Otis is right. We know nothing about these aircraft. But there seems to

04:39be one element that they all have in common. Range. The Americans with the B-21 are building

04:46the aircraft for the Pacific theater. There is no point denying it. It is the current

04:50rivalry with China that is driving several American new developments. In the Pacific theater,

04:58US bases will be few and far between. Most of the potential key targets that may require

05:05a stealth platform will be on mainland China. So, a refueled range with a decent payload

05:11is definitely an important design parameter. The Russians are going with an extremely long range.

05:19They declared 12,000 kilometers or 30 hours of endurance with a crew of four. It is a lot.

05:26It's not impossible, particularly with a flying wing, but I would expect they will have to settle

05:32for something less than less. However, we can safely assume that the range will be very long.

05:39The design range for the Chinese H-20 has been estimated at 8,500 kilometers based

05:46on the interpretation of what the Chinese declared. It is reasonable and definitely

05:52quite a long range. By the way guys, I am metric, so please get used to it.

05:58Now, what a 8,500 kilometers range in a stealth bomber are going to give you? Flying out from the

06:13Kola Peninsula and down into the Atlantic, the entire east coast of the United States is in

06:21range of a cruise or an aeroballistic missile launched by a stealth bomber. Flying out of Kamchatka

06:28and through the Pacific, the entire west coast is in range of the same weapons. And remember,

06:34in the current situation, Russia and China are basically allies and this is not going to change

06:40anytime soon. A hypothetical 12,000 kilometer range will put almost all the rest of the continental

06:50United States at risk flying from the south through the Caribbean or through Mexico. And of

06:57course, the polar route is always an option, but there is where most of the American defenses are.

07:04So, even more important would be the possibility of flying south and refueling in a safe base

07:10somewhere in South America. In this case, there will be no corner of the North American continent

07:19outside reach. In the context of an extensive conflict lasting more than a few weeks,

07:25I personally can see the usefulness of attacking some high paying target on American soil. I'm not

07:33going to list them, that would be a different video, but you can easily imagine. All of this

07:38without having ballistic missiles in the air and not risking a nuclear conflict. And remember,

07:44these are stealth platforms, so you will need to be quite close to engage them. You need a pretty

07:50dense mesh of sensors on a continental scale to waterproof the United States. China and Russia,

07:59having had to counter stealth for 30 years, are actually building it and a lot of that is already

08:05in place. But the United States, understandably, didn't build anything. What I'm trying to say

08:11is that a sizable fleet of stealth bombers in the hands of Russia or China could be the first

08:19crack in one of the main military assets of the United States, its isolation between two oceans.

08:27Thank you so much for getting this far in the video, particularly if you are American.

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