Severe tropical storm “Carina” (international name “Gaemi”) continued to intensify steadily offshore and may become a typhoon within the next 12 hours, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said in its 11 a.m. bulletin on Monday, July 22.
READ MORE: https://mb.com.ph/2024/7/22/carina-may-become-a-typhoon-habagat-rains-to-persist-in-next-2-days
READ MORE: https://mb.com.ph/2024/7/22/carina-may-become-a-typhoon-habagat-rains-to-persist-in-next-2-days
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00:00This is our latest satellite animation, and as of 10 in the morning, this typhoon Karina was last seen.
00:07355 kilometers to the east of Trigarao City, Cagayan.
00:12It brought the maximum sustained winds of 110 kilometers per hour, close to its center,
00:18and a gust of up to 135 kilometers per hour.
00:22This is still slow, moving at low speed, at a speed of only 15 kilometers per hour.
00:29This typhoon Karina, plus its enhanced southwest monsoon,
00:34is causing heavy rainfall in a large part of our country.
00:37If we notice in our latest satellite animation,
00:40almost the entire Luzon will be clouded for today.
00:43The same goes for the part of Visayas, the western Visayas, Negros Island region,
00:48and there is also a high chance of rain.
00:50Up to here, it has Basilan, Sulu-Tawi-Tawi, and Zamboanga Peninsula.
00:56This is the latest track of forecast regarding the typhoon Karina.
01:00We expect it to move to the north within the next 24 hours,
01:06and possibly by tomorrow morning, it will be at 385 kilometers east of Calayan, Cagayan.
01:12When Wednesday morning arrives, it is possible that it will be in the north east of Itbayat, Batanes,
01:18at around 360 kilometers.
01:20After that, it is possible for it to pass through Ryukyu Islands, southern Japan,
01:25and head to the northern portion of Taiwan,
01:28at the same time as the Philippine Area of Responsibility.
01:32On Thursday morning, its approximate location is more than 500 kilometers north of Itbayat, Batanes.
01:40Based on our latest forecast track,
01:43there is a very low chance that it will hit our land, its center.
01:47If we notice, even our cone of probability does not hit our land.
01:54However, if we notice this yellow circle,
01:58it is associated with strong winds or strong winds,
02:02which have a direct effect of this typhoon Karina.
02:04So, we can expect that it will hit the northern part of Cagayan Valley
02:09in the following days, particularly in eastern Isabela,
02:13in the eastern Cagayan, as well as the Mabuyan Islands, as well as Batanes.
02:18When it comes to intensity, it is possible that later tonight, it will become a typhoon category.
02:24So, it may rise in the following days,
02:28while it is in the North Philippine Sea, where this ocean is hot,
02:31and until it leaves the Philippine Area of Responsibility,
02:34it will remain as a typhoon.
02:39In terms of wind, we can expect one or signal number one,
02:43here in Cagayan Valley, as well as Batanes,
02:46eastern portion of mainland Cagayan, as well as the towns of Santa Ana,
02:50Gataran, Bagao, Peña, Blanca, Lalo, and Gonzaga.
02:55Signal number one also in the eastern portion of the Mabuyan Islands,
02:58particularly the islands of Camiguin and Mabuyan,
03:02and also here in the northeastern portion of Isabela,
03:05in Divilacan, Palanan, and Makunakon, we have signal number one.
03:09So, it means that today and tomorrow,
03:11it is possible for the wind to blow,
03:14the direct effect of this typhoon, Carina.
03:18When it comes to rain,
03:20mainly southwest Monsoon or Habagat,
03:22it will cause strong rains.
03:25We have already raised the orange warning as of 11 in the morning,
03:28here in the province of Romblon, in the southern Luzon,
03:32and we expect that in the next three hours,
03:35there will also be heavy to intense rains,
03:38while we have heavy rains in the next three hours,
03:42in other areas of Luzon, like Zambales,
03:45Bataan, Cavite, Batangas, Oriental Mindoro,
03:49also in the eastern side, in Albay, in Bicol,
03:53there is also a yellow warning,
03:55Aklan, Antique, up to here in Capi, in Western Visayas,
03:59we will have strong rains in the next three hours.
04:02And we are not losing the chance
04:04that we will have heavy rainfall warnings
04:06in other parts of Luzon,
04:09including Metro Manila,
04:10later in the afternoon, until the evening,
04:12so stay tuned to our
04:14Heavy Rainfall Warnings and Rainfall Advisories
04:18on our Facebook page and on our official website.
04:21In Romblon, we are alerting our countrymen
04:24because the floods are increasing,
04:26while the chances of floods are also increasing
04:29in the low-lying areas,
04:30in the areas we mentioned,
04:31where there are yellow rainfall warnings.
04:35If earlier was like a real-time forecast
04:38in terms of heavy rain,
04:39this is our estimated rainfall per day
04:42in the next three days.
04:44We have 100 to 200 mm of possible rain for today,
04:49so it means heavy to intense rains
04:52until later in the evening in Zambales,
04:54Bataan, and Occidental, Mindoro.
04:57So those are also the areas
04:58where there will likely be heavy rainfall warnings.
05:00We also have 50 to 100 mm
05:03of moderate to heavy rains
05:05possible for today
05:07in Northern and Eastern Cagayan,
05:09as well as in the Baboyan Islands,
05:10and in Eastern Isabela,
05:12because of the Bagyong Karina,
05:14while this part of Luzon,
05:16as well as the Ilocos Region,
05:18Apayao, Abra, Benguet,
05:20Tarlac, Nueva Ecija,
05:22Pampanga, Bulacan, Metro Manila,
05:26we have moderate to heavy rains,
05:28Calabarzon, Ollantal, Mindoro,
05:30Marinduque, Romblon, Aclan, Antique,
05:34and Hilagampalawan,
05:35as well as the Calamian Islands.
05:37By tomorrow,
05:38it is possible for there to be
05:39stronger rainfall in Batanes,
05:41and the rainfall in Zambales,
05:44Bataan, Occidental, Mindoro,
05:46and also heavy to intense rains tomorrow
05:48in the Ilocos Region, Abra,
05:51and Benguet in the Cordillera Region.
05:53By tomorrow,
05:54it is possible for there to be
05:55moderate to heavy rains.
05:56Almost all of the areas
05:58that we mentioned earlier,
05:59that will have moderate to heavy rains today,
06:03including Northern Cagayan,
06:05Apayao, Calinga, Mountain Province,
06:07Ifugao, Tarlac, Nueva Ecija,
06:10Pampanga, and Bulacan,
06:12Metro Manila,
06:13tomorrow, it is possible for there to be
06:14moderate to heavy rains.
06:15Rizal, Cavite, Laguna, Batangas,
06:18Oriental Mindoro,
06:20Romblon, Aklan, Antique,
06:22and Northern Palawan
06:23as well as Cuyo and Calamian Islands.
06:25And by Wednesday,
06:27while this typhoon Carina is moving away,
06:30it is still enhancing our forecast.
06:32That is why we are still hoping
06:34for heavy to intense rains
06:36in the areas that are on the western side
06:39of Luzon,
06:40from Ilocos Region,
06:41down to Abra, Benguet, Zambales,
06:43Bataan, and Occidental, Mindoro.
06:46While there are still showers,
06:48because of the storm Carina,
06:51here in Metro Manila,
06:52it is still possible for moderate to heavy rains
06:55in Apayao, Tarlac, Nueva Ecija,
06:57Pampanga, Bulacan,
06:59Rizal, Cavite, Batangas,
07:01and Calamian Islands.
07:04That is why,
07:05we continue to remind our fellowmen
07:07to coordinate
07:08with your local
07:09Disaster Reduction and Management offices
07:12if they need to evacuate.
07:14And because there is a high chance
07:16of flooding in low-lying areas,
07:18flooding of rivers,
07:19flooding of rivers,
07:21and possibly,
07:22because of continuous rains,
07:24it will also cause landslides,
07:26especially in mountainous areas.
07:28There is a high chance
07:29that in elevated or mountainous areas,
07:32we will have enhanced rains.
07:38Aside from heavy rains,
07:40it is possible for severe winds,
07:42not only here in storm Carina,
07:44but also in the Southwest Monsoon.
07:46If we have strong winds,
07:48we will also expect high waves.
07:51We will show that later.
07:52But for today,
07:53we expect strong winds
07:55in Zambales, Bataan,
07:57Aurora,
07:58Mimaropa,
07:59Bicol Region,
08:00Western Visayas,
08:02Northern Samar,
08:03and Northern portion of Samar.
08:05Tomorrow,
08:06we will also experience floods
08:08in Ilocos Region,
08:10Zambales,
08:11Bataan,
08:12Aurora,
08:13Metro Manila,
08:14we will also experience floods
08:15in Dulot ng Habagat,
08:16Calabarzon,
08:17Mimaropa,
08:18Bicol Region,
08:19and Western Visayas.
08:21By Wednesday,
08:22we will still experience floods
08:24in the Southwest Monsoon,
08:25not because of storm Carina,
08:27but in Ilocos Region,
08:28Abra,
08:29Benguet,
08:30Nueva Vizcaya,
08:31Quirino,
08:32up to Isabela,
08:34Central Luzon,
08:35Metro Manila,
08:36Calabarzon,
08:37Mimaropa,
08:39Bicol Region,
08:40and up to Visayas,
08:42it is possible to experience floods.
08:46And because of strong winds
08:48in the next few days,
08:49it is also possible
08:50to experience high waves.
08:52These are hand-in-hand
08:53the effects of winds
08:54and waves.
08:55We will have
08:56Moderator of Seas
08:57just now
08:58here in Luzon
08:59and Western portion of Visayas.
09:01Up to three and a half meters
09:03in the areas
09:04closest to the storm,
09:05Cagayan Valley,
09:06from Batanes
09:09to the eastern side of Luzon,
09:11in Bicol Region,
09:12three and a half meters
09:13is equivalent
09:14to one floor of a house.
09:16Here in the Western Seaboard,
09:18in the West Philippine Sea,
09:19we expect 1.5 to 3 meters
09:22of waves,
09:23especially in the areas
09:24of Occidental Mindoro
09:25and Palawan
09:26where the waves are strong.
09:28We have up to three meters
09:29here in Sulusi
09:30and in Western Visayas.
09:32It will also be part
09:33of Negros Island Region.
09:35While here in Visayas
09:36and Mindanao,
09:38it is one and a half
09:39to two meters
09:41high waves.
09:42It is dangerous
09:43for small sea vessels.
09:44We can say that
09:45because there is no
09:46gale warning,
09:47our sea travel suspensions
09:48are less likely
09:49except in the areas
09:51with signal number one.
09:53Automatically,
09:54our sea travel is suspended
09:55there.
09:56But in other areas,
09:57as of 11 in the morning,
09:58it is still not there.
09:59But then,
10:00we will continue
10:01because it is possible
10:02that later in the afternoon
10:03to night,
10:04our waves are increasing
10:05so it is also possible
10:06for the sea travel
10:07suspensions.
10:10We will repeat,
10:11regarding the track
10:12of Baguio Carina,
10:13it will be moving
10:14to the north
10:15starting now
10:16until Tuesday
10:17or until tomorrow.
10:18Then eventually,
10:19it will move
10:20north-westward
10:21or north-east
10:22in the direction
10:23of the southern
10:24islands of Japan,
10:25northern Taiwan,
10:26until the Philippine
10:27Area of Responsibility
10:28is released
10:29and by Friday,
10:30it will reach
10:31the southeastern
10:32portion of China.
10:35In terms of its track
10:37here in the Philippines,
10:38the chance of it
10:39hitting our land
10:40is still very low.
10:41Its center,
10:42even its full diameter
10:43of 300-350 kilometers,
10:44is only the northern
10:45part of Cagayan Valley
10:46that will be directly
10:47affected
10:48by this Baguio Carina.
10:49And it will be released
10:50when it reaches
10:51Wednesday night
10:52but it will still remain
10:53for the next
10:54two to three days.
10:55And we expect
10:56the strength
10:57of this Baguio Carina
10:58later in the evening
10:59it might become
11:00a typhoon
11:01and even stronger
11:02possible
11:03as a strong storm
11:04that will
11:05hit
11:06the Philippine
11:07Area
11:08as soon as possible
11:09as a strong typhoon
11:10for the next
11:1124 to 48 hours.
11:12But the chance
11:13of it becoming
11:14a super typhoon
11:15is still low
11:16for now.