Everton's 10-point deduction has pundits tipping them for relegation and fans fearing the worst, but already this season Sean Dyche has the Toffees playing in a way that's made them resilient at the back, and dangerous in attack. The numbers, for now, suggest they'll be absolutely fine.
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00:00 Hello there friends and loved ones, Adam Cleary from 442 here and it will not have escaped
00:08 your attention that Everton have been hit, slapped, knocked around the head with a 10
00:14 point deduction.
00:15 And that's terrible.
00:16 Now understandably Everton fans are fearing the worst, a lot of pundits are now tipping
00:20 them for relegation but if that is an opinion you hold then allow me to just sit you down
00:25 this afternoon or whenever you're watching this video and tell you that no, Everton have
00:29 something that no panel can ever take away from them and that is Sean Dyche.
00:35 And if you look at how they are playing under him and you look at all the underlying numbers
00:39 Everton honestly are going to be fine.
00:42 Alright so how do they play?
00:46 Well Sean Dyche has set them up in a very Sean Dyche way and that is this 4-4-1-1.
00:52 Now if you are an Everton fan you might be looking at this thinking, doesn't look quite
00:56 right to me because I've certainly never seen them spread across this much of the pitch
00:59 and that's because actually he has them set up like this.
01:03 Ta-da!
01:04 As we touched on in the recent Brighton video Everton should have beaten Brighton because
01:09 they did this really effective, really disciplined, really well organised low block.
01:13 And after the last two seasons where they were one of the softest touchers in the entire
01:17 Premier League this just ability to contract the space to stop other teams playing to make
01:22 things really, really hard for the attacking side has led to them having the second lowest
01:27 number of open play goals conceded this season.
01:30 They've only conceded from open play eight times.
01:33 Oh is that good?
01:35 Is it Adam, 12 games played and only eight goals conceded from open play?
01:38 Is that impressive?
01:39 Is it?
01:40 Yes, it's joint second.
01:41 It's one behind Liverpool.
01:42 It is level.
01:43 It is the same as Arsenal and Man City.
01:46 In fact even when you just look at all the goals they've conceded this season it's only
01:49 17 like it's two more than Tottenham, it's one more than Man United.
01:54 It's the same as Aston Villa who are pushing for a Champions League place.
01:58 They have the defensive numbers of a very, very good team.
02:01 That's because of just how disciplined this is like Everton will deny you as much space
02:06 as possible.
02:07 They will congest the middle of the pitch.
02:09 Teams need space to play through.
02:11 Most teams crave space.
02:12 Most teams entire systems are based on finding space and Everton work so hard at denying
02:19 that from happening.
02:20 Now this might seem like a bit of a weird example to bring up because they literally
02:22 do concede a goal from this but the penalty Crystal Palace get against them actually perfectly
02:27 illustrates how they defend.
02:29 Once the ball comes out to Eze on this side just look at how well formed those two defensive
02:35 lines are.
02:36 There's barely any space in between them.
02:37 They're nice and compact.
02:38 None of these Crystal Palace players have any kind of space to play in.
02:42 Like I know it leads to a goal but when Dyche is watching that back he's probably going
02:46 to think yeah that's what I want.
02:49 Like even this bit I think that's Edward makes this brilliant run across that pulls Idrissa
02:52 Gay out of the space.
02:53 That should leave loads and loads of room for Eze to do something but they shuffle across
02:58 they compact in they fill the space they know what they're doing and as he gets into the
03:03 box they've still got those two banks of four.
03:05 Yes like I say they do concede from that but you can see from how well they're set up there
03:09 if they just do that every single game it's going to take an unbelievable run from an
03:14 incredibly talented player like Eze to really do anything with it and even there it was
03:19 slightly unfortunate in the way they gave away the penalty.
03:22 Like the result is bad sure but if you're watching that back you can see all the fundamentals
03:27 are really good.
03:28 Like even the Brighton equaliser took an incredibly jammy deflection off Ashley Young's leg and
03:33 if it wasn't for that they would have won that game.
03:35 Like they restricted all the space Brighton had on both sides of the pitch.
03:39 They kept forcing them to play these long switches of play over to the other side and
03:42 even finally when they did get one of those off and Matoma finds himself in some space
03:46 they shuffle across they close that down they stop him doing what he wants to do.
03:50 Now look at those two examples how many times a season is someone going to go on a mazer
03:54 that ends up in the box and they win a penalty?
03:56 How many times a season is somebody going to cut inside and get the perfect deflection
04:00 off someone's knee to score a really spawning goal?
04:03 Virtually never.
04:04 But the thing is while this is very structured and while it is very disciplined and why it
04:09 has seen that only concede eight goals from open play this season that is not enough to
04:14 make you a good team.
04:16 That is probably not even enough to keep you in the division.
04:19 You have to score goals and this is why Everton are ultimately going to be absolutely fine
04:24 this season.
04:25 The real genius of what Sean Dice has done with this he's turned this compact defensive
04:30 unit into a genuinely really threatening attacking prospect.
04:34 Alright so when you look at all the data behind Everton this season two things jump out of
04:39 your head immediately.
04:40 So first of all they lead the league they are the very top team for the combined number
04:45 of tackles and interceptions this season.
04:48 No team is more dogged in its defensive duties.
04:51 No team is better at the actual art of defending itself.
04:55 They're the best.
04:56 Dice has got them that good.
04:58 But secondly and this might take a little bit of explaining look at this graph that's
05:02 on the Opta website that basically shows you a team's attacking style.
05:07 The axis on the bottom going along shows on average how many passes are in those sequence
05:12 and the axis on the left going up shows how quickly they cover the distance across the
05:17 pitch from one end to the other.
05:18 Now you know how Manchester City play.
05:20 They have loads of possession.
05:21 They have loads of the ball.
05:22 They work it slowly from back to front.
05:24 They pen you into your own box and they're good enough to either play through the tiny
05:28 gaps or just keep it until you make a mistake and then they hit you.
05:31 They are in the very bottom right of this graph because they are slow and they are intricate.
05:36 They don't move the ball quickly and they do it with a lot of passes.
05:40 But look at Everton in this graph like second only to Luton who are constantly penned into
05:45 their own box because that's just kind of the level disparity they have in the Premier
05:49 League.
05:50 Everton not choosing to stay as compact to stay as deep and then when they do get the
05:54 ball launch upfield as quickly and directly as they possibly can.
05:59 It's pure, pure counterattacking football.
06:02 Now if you're not in Everton fine you're like are they really a counterattacking team?
06:05 Think back to last season's 5-1 against Brighton.
06:08 You remember that result.
06:09 Everyone remembers that result.
06:10 That was like five brilliantly explosive counterattacking goals.
06:14 They sat deep, they sat deep, they sat deep and then when they finally got the ball they
06:18 launched up the other end of the pitch and scored pretty much every chance they got.
06:21 And it's where they're getting so many of their goals from this season.
06:24 Like it doesn't matter where they win the ball back whether it's in the defensive third,
06:27 the middle third, their dogged, they are hounding the ball everywhere.
06:29 But when they do the first pass is forward, it's to one of the wide players, it's to
06:34 De Corey, it's designed to get the ball into a dangerous area before the opposition can
06:39 try and reset and then do something with it.
06:42 And they're getting better and better at doing something with it.
06:45 But while it's easy to sort of go oh Calvert-Lewin's back so they're going to score more goals,
06:49 it's actually two other players in this system who are equally if not more important.
06:53 And the first one is Mikalenko at left back and the second is De Corey in the sort of
06:58 10 role.
06:59 Like if you've got Mikalenko on FPL and you're wondering why all of a sudden he seems to
07:02 be scoring these goals, it's because this system requires an explosive burst of pace
07:07 up the pitch.
07:08 It doesn't really need much structure when you do that, it's when it's turned over, try
07:12 and get up there and do something.
07:13 And Mikalenko's engine and his pace and his ability means he's always one of the first
07:18 players arriving in attacking areas.
07:21 If we just look at this little still for a quick second right before they launch the
07:23 ball up the pitch for their first goal against Crystal Palace, that's Dwight McNeil in the
07:27 left back area.
07:28 Where is Mikalenko?
07:29 But oh look, we knock it forward a few seconds and he's already up there with De Corey and
07:34 Calvert-Lewin because having just turned the ball over, he's got to do that.
07:38 That's his job.
07:39 He's got to go as far up the pitch as he can to try and make something happen.
07:43 And lo and behold, when his first shot is blocked, he is on hand to score whenever and
07:47 recycle the chance.
07:49 He made something happen.
07:51 But it's De Corey who's the most important here because as well as just having the engine
07:54 to get up the pitch, you can see here when they turn the ball over against West Ham,
07:58 straight away he knows he needs to be supporting that attack and he gets up really well with
08:03 it.
08:04 And likewise here when they turn the ball over against West Ham and launch it direct
08:06 up the pitch, he's gone beyond Calvert-Lewin to win that flick on.
08:10 He understands his role perfectly.
08:11 So while he will help with the press and the attack and pretty much play as another striker
08:14 with Calvert-Lewin, he also isn't afraid to do this, to get into that pocket and defend
08:19 there or do this and help them form a flat five to make them even harder to play through
08:24 and occasionally even do this on the rare occasions that the opposition can find space
08:30 between Everton's lines.
08:32 It isn't his job to be playing in a structure so he will drop deeper beyond that to restrict
08:38 the space even more.
08:39 Like he is without doubt in my opinion Everton's MVP already this season.
08:44 And credit where it's due, not just because he's got a great engine or a great attitude
08:47 and he understands the system, he's also really, really good.
08:50 Like this pass for their winning goal against Crystal Palace is absolutely chef's kiss.
08:56 If you've got a player who can do all this running and cover all this ground and make
09:00 that many sacrifices for this disciplined system, but can also go up the other end and
09:06 do little bits of magic with his feet, you've got a real player.
09:10 And more importantly, you've got a real chance of not getting relegated.
09:13 So bottom line here, Sean Dyche has created a team, took a little while but he has done
09:17 it that does not really concede goals from open play.
09:21 They're really difficult to play through.
09:23 And at the same time, as well as being that defensively disciplined, they're really explosive
09:28 at going up the other pitch.
09:29 They're getting a lot of goals from being really good at counterattacking out of this
09:34 system.
09:35 So let's just double check that.
09:37 When you don't concede goals easily and you've got a really effective system for scoring
09:41 them, what does that make you?
09:43 Well in this division, at worst, it makes you a mid table team.
09:48 And obviously not to keep going on about XG, but it does kind of prove my point here.
09:51 If we look at their expected number of goals, so a measure of their attacking quality, minus
09:57 their number of expected goals against, so a measure of their defensive quality, they
10:01 come out smack bang in the middle of the Premier League.
10:06 Ergo, all they need to do to not get relegated this season is just what they're already doing.
10:12 They're playing absolutely fine.
10:13 They're playing better than the majority of teams in the bottom half of the league, nevermind
10:17 the teams who were previously in the relegations.
10:19 And for God's sake, they're two points behind Luton, who were in 17th on six points.
10:24 They could conceivably be out of trouble and forgetting about all this unpleasantness in
10:29 like a week.
10:31 So if you are one of those Everton fans that's now fearing the worst, or you are one of those
10:35 pundits that's tipping them to go down because it'll just have a really destabilising effect,
10:39 like how can you play your football when all this is going on, yada yada yada.
10:43 Bollocks.
10:44 Everton are good this year.
10:45 Well, they're not good, but Everton are fine this year.
10:48 They're solid.
10:49 They're dependable.
10:50 They're not going to have as miserable a time as they have been having.
10:53 They will be moving into that stadium of theirs, barring any further points deductions, as
10:58 a Premier League team.
10:59 Put your house on it.
11:01 Anyway, that's that.
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11:36 But until next time, everything will be fine.
11:39 That's my considered opinion, and I'll see you soon.
11:42 Bye.