Ghaziabad (Uttar Pradesh) May 18, 2025 (ANI): In a searing indictment of the global community's failure to confront the climate emergency, renowned philosopher and author Acharya Prashant has warned that humanity has already crossed a critical threshold in global warming. Launching Operation 2030, he called for urgent public sensitisation, declaring that "we are in the most dangerous phase that history has ever known."
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00:00And I was very curious about the Operation 2030 written behind you.
00:04So I wanted to ask that what is it and why is it important?
00:11So there are many ways I can talk about this thing.
00:15But it just struck me, in fact just a minute back, that I should tell you a story.
00:22Probably that's one of the most interesting ways, always, to communicate what one has to, right?
00:32Do you want to hear it in the form of story or in the form of a lecture?
00:35Story.
00:36Story, all right, please sit.
00:41So there has been mankind, Homo sapiens, right?
00:48Homo sapiens, that's you and me, that's each one of us, right?
00:54And for the sake of gravity, we'll call this mankind as man, right?
01:01But man does not refer to a particular gender.
01:04Man refers to Homo sapiens, mankind, which is all of us.
01:09So there's this man, and this man is an immortal being.
01:16Because we are not talking of a particular man.
01:19We are talking of mankind itself.
01:22And people may come and people go, but people remain.
01:30So there is this fellow in 1750, man.
01:371750.
01:38And he is facing all kinds of material troubles possible.
01:45The planet is earth, and he does not have enough to eat.
01:55He does not understand most of the diseases that plague him.
02:01There is not enough education.
02:05There is not enough material, industrial production, right?
02:11All kinds of problems that there can be.
02:15And he feels like a failure, a loser.
02:20What have I done?
02:21I have been existing on this planet since 6 to 7 million years, says man.
02:29And the year right now is 1750.
02:32Right?
02:33The industrial revolution has not yet begun.
02:361750.
02:37And he says, I have been here since 7 million years.
02:41And I have been out of the jungle since 10,000 years.
02:47Long time.
02:49Really long time.
02:50And yet look at me.
02:51I am such a loser.
02:55I have nothing.
02:58I don't have good food to eat.
03:02My kids, they don't stay alive.
03:07Women, they die during childbirth.
03:11The average longevity is so poor in parts of the world.
03:14It is just 20 years, 25 years.
03:16People don't survive on an average beyond that.
03:18There are all kinds of discriminations.
03:22We do not understand physical phenomena.
03:25We do not know what's going on in the universe.
03:30There's not much progress in science, arts, mathematics.
03:34Any aspects of human activity.
03:43I do not know what's going on.
03:46And then he says, I need to succeed.
03:48I can't continue like this.
03:51I can't continue as a failure, as a loser.
03:54So he says, I need success.
03:57What do I need?
03:58Success.
04:00And he says, what's defeating me is nature.
04:06Nature.
04:07I do not know where these microorganisms come from.
04:10The bacteria, the virus.
04:12They infect me.
04:13They infect me.
04:14They bring me down.
04:15I know nothing about the functionings of our environment, our atmosphere.
04:24I do not know where to get energy from.
04:29I do not.
04:29Even if I know that certain goods are to be produced and those goods bring me happiness or comfort or convenience.
04:37Still, I do not have enough means, enough energy to extract those goods and then send them into the production line.
04:45All of that requires energy.
04:47I do not know where to get energy from.
04:48I do not know where to get energy from.
04:49So he says, it has to be a war against nature because nature is what oppresses me.
04:56Man says, I am embarking on a conquest of nature.
05:03The war starts.
05:06Though the war had actually started long before 1750, but 1750 is when we can officially announce it because now comes what we now know as the industrial revolution.
05:21Industrial revolution.
05:24And what do we have?
05:26We have industries and to run industries, you require energy.
05:32Where did energy first of all come from?
05:37We know of the steam engine.
05:39But water doesn't turn into steam on its own.
05:42What does it need?
05:44How did the early steam engines operate?
05:47They needed coal.
05:49So you started digging out coal.
05:51Mining, mining, mining.
05:54And that was all fine.
05:56And that was all fine.
05:57Steam engine just changed the way man lived.
06:03The entire trajectory of civilization.
06:06A lot of curves, if you look at them, they take an inflection around 1750.
06:13Historical curves.
06:14For example, the population of the world suddenly starts increasing because now there is more to be consumed.
06:27More food can be produced and transported, more food can be produced, more research can be done.
06:36Industrial activity brought all kinds of apparent welfare.
06:42That's 1750.
06:43And man continued on that journey.
06:50Man said, now, now, after so many million years, I'm finally getting to succeed.
06:58I'm finally getting to succeed.
07:01And he continues on this mission success.
07:08Initially, it was coal.
07:11And then he found another source of energy.
07:16Because energy had been his constraint, his limit, his bottleneck.
07:20What were the traditional sources of energy before the Industrial Revolution?
07:28Muscular energy.
07:30Muscular energy.
07:32To begin with your own muscles.
07:35Your own muscles.
07:36And when you applied some wit, then the muscular energy of?
07:42Animals.
07:42Cattle.
07:44Other domesticated animals.
07:45That was the only kind of energy that was available to you.
07:48And that kept you back.
07:52And now suddenly, a treasure had been unlocked.
08:01Hint.
08:03What we thought had been unlocked would turn out to be a Pandora's box a little later.
08:07But for now, let's just call it treasure.
08:12So, starting with coal.
08:14We used coal to discover a more potent source of energy.
08:21What was it?
08:24And had we not used coal, we couldn't have come to that other source of energy.
08:29What was it?
08:30Oil and gas.
08:32Oil and gas.
08:33The kind of exploration and deep digging and mining it requires for oil to be extracted would not have been possible without coal.
08:47So, coal led to oil and gas.
08:54Coal led to oil and gas.
08:55Now, man feels, I am even more successful.
09:00I am even more successful.
09:01Because now there is more energy and consequently, more prosperity.
09:07More can be done.
09:09More can be done.
09:09More goods can be manufactured.
09:11And that's what we call as prosperity, right?
09:14And when there is prosperity, we loosely translate that into happiness, right?
09:18So, coal and then oil and gas got translated into happiness.
09:26Man started feeling more puffed up.
09:28I am happy.
09:29I am successful.
09:30I am the conqueror of nature.
09:33I am the ruler of the world.
09:36Right?
09:36And after oil and gas, what came next?
09:43Very recently.
09:45Electricity?
09:46Electricity?
09:47No.
09:48As source of energy.
09:50Electricity?
09:51Then came nuclear.
09:53And now you have all kinds of green energies.
09:57Right.
09:58So, that's the story.
10:01And man has been feeling more and more successful and more and more emboldened
10:05to extract energy from the planet and use it to do any kind of stuff that he pleases,
10:15that he chooses to do.
10:19But what has been the other side of the story?
10:24And wonderfully enough, this story is very parallel, very analogous to what you have here.
10:34Decoding success.
10:36And if you can understand the story of this man, you will get a fair bit of idea what kind of success you want in your life.
10:45Because you are standing at a very critical juncture of your studies, life and decisions.
10:53The level of carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere was 270 ppm.
11:03Ppm is?
11:06Parts per million.
11:07Parts per million.
11:07270 ppm.
11:11And from there, it started increasing initially at a slow rate.
11:18Very slow rate.
11:21To the extent that even when we came to the 20th century, to the turn of the 20th century, the year 1900,
11:30the ppm levels were no more than 300.
11:38So that was not much of an increase, you could say, from 1750 to 1900, just around 30 ppm.
11:47In fact, in 1870 or 1880, it was barely 280 ppm.
11:52And then it rose, rose, rose, rose, rose, came the two world wars.
11:58It kept rising gradually.
12:01And then we come to 1950.
12:04This is after the World War II destruction.
12:12The post-World War II wreck had to be cleared.
12:17There was massive destruction.
12:19You know of that, right?
12:20It had to be cleared.
12:22And there was a wave of reconstruction.
12:25And also, we had decided not to fight with that kind of intensity and ruthlessness.
12:34And the United Nations had been set up.
12:38So there was relative peace compared to the first half of the last century.
12:43We are at 1950.
12:44And that's when the real explosion in both material prosperity and per capita income and ppm levels starts happening.
12:56We start claiming we are getting more and more successful and that is also the time when this ppm curve just just explodes.
13:07Instead of rising gradually and it takes an exponential turn, so much so that every decade after 1950, the ppm levels kept increasing till around the year 2000 by 10 ppm.
13:25And after the year 2000, which is when we enter this century, the rate of increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has been more than 10 ppm.
13:41If you look at the curves of the average temperature of Earth and the curve of the atmospheric CO2 levels, you would feel you are looking at the same curve.
14:05Because it's two worms lying one upon the other.
14:13There is not just a correlation, there is a direct causation.
14:18The more you increase CO2, the more the atmospheric temperature rises.
14:25But man was successful and man was achieving more and more success.
14:29However, this century opens and there are already voices, sane voices, warning against an impending catastrophe.
14:46A catastrophe that the younger generations, guys like you, are going to face the brunt of.
14:53The problem is those who hold money, those who accumulate capital and those who are at the hem of power are usually the older folks, no?
15:07While those who will be left to bear the consequences will be people like you and these two young men.
15:14So, there was a huge clamor, right?
15:23Have you heard of the Earth Summit?
15:26Earth Summit, when was it?
15:28In 1992.
15:301992.
15:311992.
15:33All this is covered in environmental sciences syllabus, right?
15:36No, in geography.
15:38In geography, okay.
15:39Good, wonderful.
15:40We didn't have that.
15:42So, at least some progress is there.
15:44So, after that, there was United Nations Activity and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change came about.
15:53And it is under this that you have this Conference of Parties, which is the highest decision-making unit under the UNFCCC, which meets every year, right?
16:03This year again, it's meeting.
16:04Where is it meeting?
16:07Where is the COP this year?
16:09Brazil.
16:10Wonderful.
16:10So, the COP in 2015 was a landmark one.
16:19Very remarkable.
16:20Why?
16:22SDGs were left behind.
16:25The Paris Agreement.
16:28The national deliverables.
16:29And the Paris Agreement came about for a very, very specific reason.
16:39The reason was that we were seeing a temperature rise.
16:43And there was enough scientific evidence that if the average global temperatures exceed 1.5 degrees centigrade, then there is going to be a massive problem.
17:02Because somewhere between 1.5 degrees and 2 degrees, something called feedback loops get activated.
17:17Do you understand feedback loops?
17:19These are self-sustaining, self-reinforcing climatic phenomena.
17:24And once they get activated, they cannot be stopped.
17:31They are irreversible.
17:34Which means that even if you now go to a net zero state, which is you do not add any additional carbon dioxide to the atmosphere,
17:44yet, carbon dioxide would keep getting added to the atmosphere on its own, even without any human intervention.
17:55So, that's the reason there was so much significance attached to this figure of 1.5 degrees.
18:04It does not pop up randomly from somewhere.
18:07So, the figure of 1.5 degrees centigrade has a solid scientific basis.
18:15So, the COP21 in 2015, Paris, it said we want to limit temperature rise to 1.5 degrees centigrade.
18:27And because it was not clear, when exactly do the feedback cycles get activated, so it was said, fine, at max, we can tolerate 2 degrees.
18:41Because the loops get activated between 1.5 and 2 degrees, so it said, fine, maybe 2 degrees is tolerable.
18:471.5 degrees is what we want, because even at 1.5 degrees, it is not certain that you will be able to totally prevent the loops from getting activated.
19:03You could say from getting switched on, like a chain reaction, like a radioactive fissile nuclear reaction.
19:10It's not certain, it's not certain, but there is a probability that 1.5 is when it all begins, so let's stop it before that.
19:19At max, 2 degrees.
19:21At max, 2 degrees.
19:24So, 2015, we said, was a landmark.
19:29In 2015, we said, targets as a planet.
19:33We said, target, all the countries of the Earth, we said, a target, we said, by 2030, is that the number you find here?
19:452030?
19:462030?
19:46Yeah.
19:47So, we said, by 2030, if we want to contain the temperature rise to 1.5 degrees,
19:56then we'll have to bring down our carbon emissions, the global carbon emissions of the entire planet by 43% compared to the 2019 levels.
20:14If you want to keep the temperature rise to just 1.5 degrees above the pre-industrial levels,
20:27then you will have to limit the carbon emission by decreasing it by 44% below 2019 levels.
20:43Why 2019 levels?
20:45Because after that, you had the epidemic.
20:48The COVID pandemic was there.
20:51So, the carbon levels, you could say they were kind of artificially down in 2020.
21:01So, we took 2019 as the benchmark.
21:05And we said, compared to 2019, we want to bring it down by 43%
21:10and even if we bring it down by 43%,
21:13the best that we can get is just a 1.5 degrees rise.
21:19Just a 1.5 degrees rise.
21:22Why do we need to have this Operation 2030 then?
21:24Because this is 2025 and that 1.5 degrees barrier has already been breached.
21:34We said we do not want to exceed 1.5 degrees ever.
21:41We said we do not want to exceed 1.5 degrees even 100 years from now.
21:46Otherwise, something unstoppable will be set into motion.
21:54And that has already happened this particular year.
22:00We have exceeded 1.5 degrees global temperature rise.
22:04In fact, there is some evidence that it has already gone up to the level of 1.7 degrees.
22:111.7 degrees and this is not 2030, this is 2025.
22:14A great, thanks.
22:42Go ahead.