On "Forbes Newsroom," David Daoud, Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, discussed the release of the last American hostage in Gaza, what's next in the Israel-Hamas war, and President Trump's trip to the Middle East.
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00:00Hi, everybody. I'm Brittany Lewis, a breaking news reporter here at Forbes. Joining me now is
00:07David Dowd, Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. David, thank you so much
00:11for joining me. My pleasure. I want to talk about the latest in the Israel-Hamas war because there
00:18have been some significant developments in the past few days, so I would love to get your reaction
00:23to them. Let's start with Monday. The last living American hostage was released. You're in Israel.
00:29What's the mood on the ground? Tell us about the country's reaction.
00:34Well, look, I mean, Israel, it's still a lively country. Life is proceeding almost like normal,
00:39except for the fact that you feel the war everywhere. You walk down the street, there are
00:43posters of hostages, of soldiers who have been killed, young soldiers. I mean, these guys are
00:4818 to 21 during their basic service. And, you know, hostage squares filled every Saturday. I was
00:56actually there when Edan Alexander was released. There is a sense of relief with every hostage
01:03released. But then there's also a sense that even when you're done with that, the mission
01:07isn't over. You know, you're watching Israeli news simultaneously, and it's, yeah, he's the
01:13last American or hostage with American citizenship who was released. But then there are Israelis
01:18who don't have foreign citizenship. And I remember Enet Tsengoko, who's the mother of one of the
01:25hostages, saying, well, what about them? Are they worth less simply because they have Israeli
01:29citizenship? And that, you know, that's that there's this desire to get this war done and to
01:35almost to get the hostage. Polls seem to be going in that direction. So it's almost a fixation
01:42on getting these. I guess now depends on whose numbers. You've got 23 to 20 living hostages left
01:49getting them back home. What do people make of Netanyahu's leadership right now? Because as you
01:56said, this was the last this was the last hostage with American citizenship released. What do what do
02:02people in Israel make of the fact that U.S. officials negotiated with Qatar in Egypt? How are they
02:08feeling toward Netanyahu? I think it depends. Look, the majority of the country, according to polls,
02:15is not does not have a favorable favorable view of this government, including people who had voted
02:19for this government prior to the war. You have a lot majority of people want a hostage deal at any
02:25price. I think that group of people is going to look at it and say that Eda and Alexander was
02:30released in spite of Netanyahu's efforts and that Prime Minister Netanyahu was actually hampering the
02:35return of the hostages. Now, Prime Minister Netanyahu himself is a political genius that we can say
02:41about him. And he was trying to spin Edan's release as a result of his policy of forcing Hamas to
02:49negotiate under fire rather than as a result of American mediation. Now, that will play to his base
02:57and will play to, you know, the Channel 14 crowd. That's kind of the group of Israelis that really are
03:03committed to the Netanyahu government. They'll look at it and say, well, no, it was Prime Minister
03:07Netanyahu's policy of pursuing this war until total victory, of forcing Hamas to negotiate under fire
03:12that forced Hamas to be more conciliatory, but, you know, forced them to give up this very important
03:19card in their hands. And others, say the majority of the country right now, would disagree with that
03:24because of their unfavorable view of this government. I want to read exactly what Netanyahu said
03:30about Edan Alexander's release that he said this, quote, this was achieved thanks to our military
03:35pressure and the diplomatic pressure applied by President Trump. This is a winning combination.
03:40And I spoke with President Trump today. He said, I am committed to Israel to continuing to work with
03:44you in close cooperation in order to achieve all of our war objectives, releasing all of the hostages
03:50and defeating Hamas. What do you make of what he said? Because you're right, he is seemingly trying
03:56to take credit there. Do people believe that Israel was cut out of these negotiations? I mean,
04:01what does that really look like? I mean, there is a growing sense now, various moves by the Trump
04:07administration. According to Yedi Otachonot, a major newspaper in Israel, Pete Hegseth was supposed
04:12to defense, sorry, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, sorry, I'm in all non-Israeli mode where everyone's
04:17a minister here, was supposed to visit Israel. And that visit was canceled. Simultaneously, you have
04:23Trump, President Trump and members of his cabinet or his administration in the Gulf meeting with
04:28Saudi officials. Today, there was a very dramatic meeting with Syrian President Ahmad al-Shara.
04:34And there's a sense of kind of winds of optimism blowing in the Gulf's direction or being led by
04:40the Gulf and kind of policies that the Gulf states would like to see. And there's no visit to Israel.
04:47And the Israelis aren't necessarily being consulted. There's also the move towards a deal with Iran,
04:52Iran that the president is pursuing. Now, you know, there is this idea of if Iran doesn't come
04:57to the table and give given to the president's demands peacefully, the bombers are ready in Diego
05:02Garcia to launch, except those bombers, as far as we know, have been pulled back. So again,
05:07there's a sense that Israel, that the Trump administration is trying to do what the Trump
05:10administration wants to do, which is to make deals, to get down to business, to pursue the path
05:16of prosperity. And Israel is being left behind. And look, that may be true in the sense that given
05:23what the Trump administration's priorities are now, President Trump, for all of his bombastic
05:28rhetoric, he's not he's not a warmonger. He doesn't like war. He doesn't like conflict. He likes to make
05:33deals. And he likes to make deals that he believes benefit the United States. And right now, Israel,
05:39given the position it's in, can't give him any deal. You know, and you could say, well,
05:43he wants to he wants the Gaza war over. He said that before even taking taking office. Israel can't
05:49give him that. Now, is that because Prime Minister Netanyahu is interested, as some will say, in
05:55holding on to his coalition and lengthening the war helps him hold on to that coalition? Or is it
06:00because genuinely the only correct policy for the future of the state of Israel is to pursue this
06:05conflict for as long as it takes to erode Hamas and force it to give up its governmental and military
06:11influence in the Gaza Strip? That's a question for, you know, for other people to decide.
06:17But the conclusion is that Israel can't give the deal, whereas, say, Qatar, Saudi Arabia can produce
06:23deals. And that that feeds into Trump's President Trump's instincts. I mean, should we read into it
06:30too closely that President Trump, his first major foreign trip in his second term, he's going to the
06:36Middle East, he's visiting the UAE, he's visiting Saudi Arabia, he's visiting Qatar. He said, I mean,
06:42the trip is focused on, as you said, business deals, not foreign policy. But he's not visiting
06:47our biggest ally in the Middle East, Israel. What does that say about U.S.-Israel relations, if
06:53anything? It's hard to disconnect the economic and the business deals from the political. Look, I don't
06:59know if there's an intentional parallel. But if we go back to President Obama's first visit
07:04to the region, it deliberately excluded Israel as a signal to the Muslim world that, look, we're
07:09extending the olive branch to President Obama's advisers who told him, leave the Israelis out of
07:14this for now. Extend the olive branch to the Arab world, given that this was coming off, you know,
07:19the tension between the United States and the Arab and Islamic world, given President or former
07:25President Bush's policies. Is there something in there now? Perhaps. We are not necessarily, look,
07:31what is the relationship with Trump's foreign policy. It's largely built on personal relationships.
07:38He really cares about the personal. And we know that during the years when he was out of office,
07:45he, you know, he was very displeased with Prime Minister Netanyahu for various reasons.
07:50You know, there was talk, reports that, you know, he was frustrated with Prime Minister Netanyahu's,
07:55what Trump put it, his unwillingness to pursue the peace deals that Trump wanted him to pursue,
07:59basically the Palestinians. There was frustration over Prime Minister Netanyahu being one of the
08:03first, if not the first, foreign leader to congratulate President Biden after the contentious
08:092020 election. And then more recently, there's been talk of frustration with Prime Minister Netanyahu
08:14for not having his dual union on the Qasem Soleimani strike. So there's already this kind of this built-in
08:18frustration with Prime Minister Netanyahu. And if we look at the advisers that President Trump is
08:24surrounding himself with, they're taking a course that is at cross ends with how Israel would like
08:30to see some aspects of U.S. policy in the Middle East. And that, again, that could lead to more of
08:37an alienation from Israel. And those same advisers would like to take the United States into a direction
08:44that is favored by our Gulf partners, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE. Now, whether that's the right course
08:50or the wrong course, again, separate question. But there seems to be that, you know, that direction
08:55in the administration to move the United States more towards an alignment with the Gulf and not
09:01Israel. Whereas, you know, now, the first Trump administration, the Gulf and Israel were almost,
09:06with the exception of Qatar, were almost fully aligned. Now, because of the Gaza war, there is a
09:12disalignment. So if you go with the Gulf, you may necessarily be excluding Israel. But Gulf comes with
09:18deals Israel does not at this moment. And there's a definite tone shift between President Trump and
09:24Prime Minister Netanyahu when it comes to the end of this war. I want to read something that Trump
09:29posted after Eda and Alexander was released. Quote, this was a step taken in good faith towards the
09:35United States and the efforts of the mediators Qatar and Egypt to put an end to this very brutal war and
09:40return all living hostages and remains to their loved ones. Hopefully, this is the first of those final
09:45steps necessary to end this brutal conflict. And Netanyahu said earlier this week that there is,
09:50quote, no way we will stop the war, even if Hamas releases more hostages until Hamas is defeated.
09:56So what do you make of these differing messages here?
10:00Again, they're almost at cross ends. In terms of if I were Hamas, I want to, you know, I just saw the
10:09United States and come to a ceasefire with the Houthis. Israel's left out in the cold at a time
10:15where, you know, right after Ben-Gurion Airport was almost struck. So maybe I give the United States
10:22what it wants to get it off my back. The last living American hostage. We know that President Trump
10:26cares about the lives of American citizens, including the lives of dual citizens and dual citizens abroad.
10:31He killed Qasem Soleimani because Iraqi Shia militias had harmed U.S. persons, a U.S. citizen.
10:39So if I'm Hamas, I'm going to, you know, kind of try to isolate Israel by no longer having an
10:45American citizen there. And then it's just between me and the Israelis. And that sharpens the divergence
10:49between President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu. Especially again, you're sitting as Hamas. I think
10:54it's a very strange statement to say that Hamas is acting in good faith or with goodwill. This is a brutal
11:00terrorist organization. It's an FTO. So I find that a very strange statement from the White House. But
11:05again, these guys are adept at creating this kind of impression about themselves. And you know that
11:12President Trump is coming in already on a platform that he wants this war over. So do you want to
11:17create disinterest on the part of the president by saying, look, we have no more Americans. You have
11:23nothing to you personally have nothing to seek here anymore. It's just between us and Israel. And that
11:28helps to isolate the Israelis. And then you have the Qataris working a different angle. You know,
11:32they have the ear of the administration. At the same time, they're one of the primary sponsors of
11:36Hamas, not just financially. If you look at their soft power, right, they are the spreaders,
11:41the biggest spreaders of anti-American, not just anti-Israel, but anti-American ideology through,
11:46you know, their large media apparatuses. You know, Jazeera is the biggest known one,
11:51the Arabi, Arabi al-Jadid, and so on and so forth. But they know how to play the angle. You know,
11:55they know how to play both sides of the coin. So you have Hamas giving up its last American
12:02asset, and you have Qatar, which has the administration's ear pushing in a direction
12:07that would satisfy its own interests, but maybe not necessarily our American interests in the long
12:12term. Do you think by Hamas giving up the last living American hostage, do you think by Qatar perhaps
12:20giving that $400 million plane, allegedly, for Air Force One, do you think that in tandem,
12:27they're almost pulling one over on the Trump administration?
12:31Look, I think, I don't know if I want to call it that, but I think there is an attempt to use
12:37softer tactics to appeal to the Trump administration. Qatar is excellent at that. Putting, you know,
12:43putting the $400 million plane aside, you look at how the Qataris have positioned themselves
12:49to influence not just, you know, we talk about Qatari influence in different areas of, you know,
12:54American public life. For almost a decade, they've been trying to influence the conservative side of
13:00the angle, including the pro-Israel side of the angle. We have a lot of prominent American officials
13:04that frequent visitors to Qatar that genuinely view Qatar as, you know, an uncomplicated ally, right?
13:13Qatar is a partner, although the Air Base is there for a reason, but that's one side of the Qatari game.
13:18And the other side, again, is to spread and perpetuate anti-Americanism in the region
13:23through its soft power apparatuses. So they know how to work the game. They know how to,
13:30they've built relations with the conservative side of the angle. And this has kind of culminated
13:34in the, I don't want to call it the more ISIS wing, but kind of the harder wing of the MAGA movement.
13:40And look at the interview with Tucker Carlson. I don't think they've given him any money,
13:45but they've bought him hook, line, and sinker through this soft power approach, through convincing
13:49him that they are an uncomplicated ally of the United States. And it seems like the Trump
13:53administration coming in now, you know, their ear is inclined more to say, you know, to the Tucker
13:59Carlson wing of the Republican party than say the Mike Pompeo wing of the Republican party.
14:04And the Qataris, again, have succeeded in pushing their influence on them. So look, $400 million
14:09plane there or not, the Qataris are working a very long game and it seems to be paying off
14:14and that our foreign policy seems to be going in a direction that they would like, they would like
14:20to see. Do you think from that perspective then that Qatar is an ally of the United States or
14:26should Qatar be an ally of the United States? I mean, what do you make of all of that?
14:31Look, I think to me, look, I'm obsessed with soft power. I'm obsessed with the idea of narrative
14:37because that, you know, that forms reality. No matter what you do in hard reality, I think
14:42perception more often than not matters more than reality. And if you're a country that is basing
14:47its regional influence, Qatar is a small country with a small population that has a lot of oil
14:52reserves that are going to run out one day. They want regional influence. They want global influence.
14:56And the way they're doing that is through soft power. Now, in and of itself, that's a neutral thing.
15:01What are they putting into that soft power? They're trying to play on pre-existing
15:05anti-Americanism, anti-Semitism, anti-Israel sentiments in the region. They're trying to
15:10perpetuate those sentiments. Again, not just the anti-Israel anti-Semitism, but also anti-Americanism,
15:16anti-Westernism. In the long run, Qatar is playing a game where it ensures that this part of the world
15:22maintains a certain hostile disposition to the West and to the United States.
15:28So I, do you call that a partner? I wouldn't call it a partner. Maybe they haven't attacked us
15:33directly, but if you're sponsoring Hamas, if you have relations with, uh, with the Taliban,
15:37and sometimes we use that to our advantage as the United States, but what if you're fueling
15:42the next ISIS ideology through all this anti-Westernism that you're pumping into the Arab world
15:48through Al Jazeera, but through other, you know, through other media outlets as well,
15:51I would, I don't know if I would consider that a friend, uh, right. If I were talking about a personal
15:56friendship and I had someone who'd never laid a hand on me, but the entire time was gossiping about me,
16:01I don't know if I would call that a friend. I do now want to turn back to what you see next
16:06in the Israel Hamas war, because Netanyahu, as I said earlier, he said, there's no way we will stop
16:11the war until they defeat Hamas. On Wednesday, Israel lost an air, launched an airstrike on Gaza.
16:18This came after Netanyahu promised escalation in the region. I mean, what do you make of this latest
16:23operation and what do you see as the next or, and or final stages of this war?
16:28Look, I think partially there's, look, in every war, especially in this war, uh, there's an emphasis
16:35on symbolism, uh, killing commanders, killing high-ranking commanders. If you kill Mohammed
16:40Sinwar, who was the, uh, the, the target, uh, of the strike, we still don't know if, uh, if he was
16:45killed. There's a symbolic element to this, that you are pushing the war forward, that you're bringing
16:49Hamas closer to dissolution may, may not necessarily be so, but it gives that impression. It buys this
16:54government more time. It, it is a, it is a win for this, for this government to turn to the U.S.
16:59administration and say, look, we're not just wasting time here with, with continuing this
17:03war. We're actually making, you know, making advances. We're actually succeeding. Um, at the
17:07same time, look, the, the, the Netanyahu government has said, if I'm not mistaken, that, uh, you know,
17:12uh, 10 living hostages have to be released and that'll result in kind of a similar ceasefire to
17:17what we had before the resumption of hostilities. Um, so I think it was like a 40 day ceasefire or
17:22something. Uh, if, if, if Hamas, uh, releases 10 hostages, it's not a permanent end to the war,
17:29uh, but it's something that would be kind of sort of a humanitarian lull with discussions for,
17:35you know, what would happen to the future, depending on more, how many more hostages Hamas
17:38would, would release. So there's the tough rhetoric, there's the symbolism. There's also
17:42an attempt to show flexibility because you have pressure from the American government.
17:47Steve Whitcoff's talking about ending this war. The president's talking about ending this war.
17:51And again, there's tremendous pressure from within the Israeli public, uh, to see the hostages return
17:55home. So you have to give into that as well. You have to, to, to, to cater to the Israeli public as
18:00well to alleviate pressure off of, uh, off of the government. And again, is that a tactical move
18:05to continue the war later on? We'll see. Well, David, there's certainly a lot to look out for next,
18:10and I hope you continue to join me and break it all down. David Dow, thanks for coming on.
18:16Thank you. Looking forward to future, future conversations as well.