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00:00My team in the National League right now,
00:01at least from a betting perspective,
00:03the Reds beat 80 wins out of Cincinnati.
00:05They've got 19.
00:06They're 19 and 19 straight up.
00:08My guy, though, in the National League,
00:11that would be Spencer Schwellenbach,
00:12the 2021 Big Ten Player of the Year from Nebraska
00:15and off to a great start in his second full season
00:18in the bigs.
00:19Minus 190, the price in favor of the Braves
00:22to win this four-game set in the IRS
00:24and take three of four from Cincinnati.
00:26Can the Reds put up a fight today in the A?
00:28Taking a look at the seasonal statistics here,
00:30and by the way, I think Schwellenbach
00:31did get blown up in his last start.
00:33Two starts ago, was it?
00:3541 and a third innings pitch,
00:36but technically he's the better pitcher on the mound today.
00:383.92 ERA, which is a little bit elevated.
00:40You want to see that number 3-5 or 0.
00:423-19 XFIP number on the season,
00:44so bounce back might be in order at this point.
00:46You take a look here from Cincinnati, Nick Lodolo,
00:48pretty confident left-handed pitcher.
00:50He is decent, typically, with his K right,
00:52but not this year.
00:536.75 Ks per nine innings,
00:55which means if you extrapolate out a nine-inning start for him,
00:57he's not even striking out a guy per inning,
00:59which is really what you want to see.
01:01A 3.27 ERA, which makes some sense,
01:03but his XFIP creeping up at a 4-2-8.
01:05If we're looking at the lineups as how they present tonight,
01:08Nick Lodolo, excuse me, being a left-handed pitcher,
01:11very good against left-handed batters,
01:13and also his power numbers are down against righties
01:15with also ISO power number and weighted on base percentages.
01:18Here's the issue that gets him in trouble
01:19while his XFIP is a little bit higher.
01:21He doesn't strike guys out,
01:22which means the ball typically will be in play.
01:24You look at the middle of the lineup
01:25for the Atlanta Braves today.
01:26Austin Riley going up against left-handed pitching.
01:28Not a lot of at-bats.
01:30You're 21, but a 300 ISO power number
01:32and a weighted on base percentage of 4-0-2.
01:34Marcel Azuna, not a lot of power,
01:35but the weighted on base percentage of 3-94.
01:37Olsen, not a lot of power,
01:39but again, the weighted on base percentage of a 3-94.
01:41I think the better overall lineup today
01:43is for the Atlanta Braves.
01:44I do think the Braves win this game,
01:45but also, as I pointed out and you confirmed,
01:48sometimes you come off the back-to-back starts.
01:50Was it a problem that he had?
01:51Was it an injury?
01:52Was he just not feeling it right now?
01:54Like, Paul Skeen's had a nice bounce-back performance
01:55after he had one of his low points in the season,
01:57which the Pittsburgh Pirates still lost.
01:59I'll still trust Atlanta in this spot, though.