Days after the government announced the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan following the terror attack in Pahalgam that claimed the lives of 26 civilians, we raised these questions on the show: Is water the best way to send out a message to choke Pakistan?
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00:00And amidst all the talk of war with Pakistan, let's raise the real question that perhaps now lies at the heart of what we are seeing.
00:08Is water the best way to send out a message to choke Pakistan and act as a deterrent?
00:14Should India be building more dams before we are in a position to actually ensure that Pakistan gets less water?
00:24What next in this Indus water face-off?
00:26Is water really a weapon to be used in battles like this?
00:31I'm joined by A.K. Bajaj, former Chairman, Central Water Commission and ex-officio secretary to Government of India, Ministry of Water Resources.
00:39Ambassador Yash Sina, former diplomat, was involved in various negotiations that have taken place in the past over water sharing.
00:47And Dr. Anjal Prakash is an expert on the Hindu Kush Himalayas water system.
00:51Appreciate all of you joining us.
00:52Ambassador Sina, you might have just seen Prime Minister Modi's comment, his first remarks on holding the Indus Water Treaty in Aben, saying India's water belongs to India.
01:03Now that, in a sense, goes against the very principles of the Indus Water Treaty, or indeed most water treaties, where upper riparian states, in this case India, share the water with the lower riparian states.
01:13Do you believe this is a more effective way of sending out a message to Pakistan?
01:20Thank you, Rajdeep, for having me on your show.
01:22I think there are three points that I need to make.
01:25One is the treaty is very unfair to India.
01:28When it was negotiated during the Cold War, Pakistan had patrons that ensured that it got 80% of the waters of the Indus Basin, while India got 20%, despite the fact that 39% of the Indus Basin lies in India.
01:44And only 47% lies in Pakistan.
01:48The rest lie in Tibet, China and Afghanistan.
01:51So that's the first point.
01:52Second, we can walk away from the treaty because the Vienna Convention on Treaties states that there is a fundamental change in circumstances.
02:02And just yesterday, I read a report by Dr. Atul Kulkarni.
02:08I believe he's a top glaciologist, where he has said that the eastern rivers, the glacial water melt or melt waters have reduced considerably,
02:19while in the west, which is at a higher reach in the Karakoram range, it hasn't reduced.
02:25So there has been a material change in terms of flows of all the eastern and the western rivers.
02:31And that would, basically, he terms it as the Karakoram anomaly.
02:37But I'm sure there are experts on your panel that would know much more on this.
02:41The third point I want to make was the fact that people say that you cannot store water even on the run-of-river projects.
02:51Again, I will defer to the experts, but what I learned that, for instance, the Kishin Ganga has a live storage of 7.5 million cubic meters and a dead storage of 11 million cubic meters.
03:06While Baglihar has a live storage of 32 million cubic meters and a dead storage of 352 million cubic meters.
03:19Now, how can we use the dead storage?
03:21That is, again, something that our experts, because the live storage we know is used for hydroelectricity, etc.
03:27But how do we use the dead storage?
03:30So I think there are various possibilities as far as the Indus Water Treaties go.
03:36I was a co-agent for India at the Kishin Ganga arbitration when the interim measures were announced.
03:43And then the final measures came in December of 2013, the final award.
03:47And I had already left for Sri Lanka.
03:49But I was aware I went for two rounds of arbitration to the Hague.
03:55So I think we must be better informed.
03:58I'm glad you've got experts on the panel who can throw some light on how we can use it.
04:02I'll come to the experts, but I just want to know from you, just very quickly and succinctly,
04:06you're saying that this is an effective diplomatic measure to send a message out to Pakistan.
04:12Whether on the ground the water stops overnight is another matter.
04:16That we'll discuss with the expert.
04:18But you're saying, at least for now, when tensions have risen,
04:21it is a message sent to Pakistan that India has the option of getting a complete review of the treaty,
04:29even if in the future the two sides come to the negotiating table.
04:33Am I right?
04:34Radhi, we've already asked for a review.
04:36We even sent a reminder earlier this year.
04:38This is all before Pahlgaam.
04:40Pakistan has been obfuscating, it has been obstructionist on any project,
04:46whether it's Ratte, whether it's Baglihar, whether it's Kishan Ganga.
04:50So I think, and we have projects on the anvil, new projects on the anvil,
04:53which we must go ahead with.
04:55But this is a signal, this is a signaling to Pakistan
04:59that if you continue with your policy of state-sponsored terrorism,
05:04there will be a cost, a price to pay.
05:06Okay, let's come to the specifics.
05:09And I want to come to you, A.K. Bajad, former Chairman of Central Water Commission.
05:13On Monday, that's yesterday, the National Hydroelectric Park Corporation
05:17closed all the gates at Baglihar and Salal Dams on the Chenab,
05:21a tributary of the River Indus,
05:24with the purpose ostensibly to fill them up after a week-long flushing
05:28to optimize their water-carrying capacity.
05:31But just the flushing and closure of these two dams
05:34has reportedly triggered panic in Pakistan during the Kharib growing season.
05:40Is this an act, you believe, that actually reduces the water flow
05:44along the Chenab into Pakistan already?
05:47Yes, it is reducing water flow to the Pakistan areas
05:58as we have seen photographs of the dried-up river near to Jammu.
06:03But what I want to stress is that Ambassador Sina has mentioned
06:08the dead storage and life storage capacities.
06:12The life storage capacities are very small
06:14compared to what is the actual flows in the river.
06:17So, depending on what flow is coming at,
06:20what point of time,
06:21these storages can only be used for stopping water
06:25for maybe two days or three days or four days at the most.
06:30So, we will need much bigger storages.
06:33Some of…
06:34So, how long would that take?
06:36Some of which are being built now.
06:38If you really wanted…
06:39If you really wanted Mr. Bajaj to do this in a long…
06:42Rather than just short-term measures,
06:45how long would that take to create the infrastructure that is needed?
06:49The first project with the substantial storage is the Pakuldul project
07:00that is being constructed by India.
07:01And that is as per the treaty,
07:03because till now we were following all the provisions of the treaty.
07:07So, that project was allowed under the treaty provisions.
07:11So, that is the first project which is going up in these western rivers.
07:15And it has substantial storage which we can utilize for stopping
07:21or for reducing the flows to Pakistan.
07:24But that has been going on,
07:26construction has been going on for the last three, four years.
07:29And it is not expected to be completed.
07:32Another three, four years it is likely to take.
07:35So, major capacity to stop waters will only come
07:40when we build storages dams.
07:42And one other point is that…
07:44Yes.
07:45Just building storages dams will…
07:46Yes.
07:47Go ahead.
07:48Go ahead.
07:49Just building storage dams will not help because…
07:52Yeah.
07:53Because by building storage dams, we can store the water.
07:57But eventually when the water…
07:59Dam fills up, we will have to release.
08:01So, what we will need to do is also build infrastructure to move this water from the western rivers
08:08to the dry and parched areas of Punjab, Rajasthan, Haryana or the eastern rivers.
08:14This water will also need to be diverted to the eastern rivers to actually make an impact on Pakistan
08:21and reduce the water of flows that are going to Pakistan in the western rivers.
08:25Okay.
08:26Given what we have just heard, Dr. Anjal Prakash, you are an expert on the Hindu Kush Himalayas water system.
08:31There are many ecologists, environmentalists who believe that all of this is not conducive to the fragile ecosystem of the Himalayas.
08:40Easy to come on TV programs and say we can divert the waters, build this big infrastructure.
08:45These are extremely ecologically sensitive areas and building these projects will take years.
08:52Do you believe that this is a wise step?
08:54There are even those who are saying that it is not in the interest of India necessarily to start diverting the water flow.
09:04No, I totally agree that this is the entire abeyance of the India's water treaty and the review is definitely in the interest of India.
09:19I have written couple of articles in 2023 itself of how India can use water as a weapon for as deterrence for Pakistan
09:28because it has the huge impact on the Pakistan economy.
09:32I will come back to that later.
09:34But the question is also that the Hindu Kush Himalayas region is a very fragile region.
09:38It is one of the newest mountains in the world and also it is one of the most, you know, the number of population,
09:45the people who are there is one of the denseliest populated mountains in the world.
09:50And this means that whatever we are planning, it has to be very, very, very, what I would say, strategically planned.
09:57And also looking at the ecological system, the fragility of the mountain system there.
10:02So this has to be planned together with all the stakeholders in mind.
10:08But I don't totally agree that the abeyance of the treaty has an impact.
10:13I have also been writing and pointing out that in the wake of climate change, you have to understand that.
10:19How much of an impact Dr. Prakash would it have if tomorrow, we are talking about three western rivers,
10:24Chenab, Jhelam and Indus, where India gives 80% of the water to Pakistan.
10:29We have the three eastern rivers where we have exclusive rights, Satlej, Bias and Ravi.
10:33Are we saying that you can actually divert all the water of the western rivers? Is that what we would do? Or could do?
10:42No, I don't think it is possible. No, I don't think it is possible to divert all the water as my co-punist also has pointed it out.
10:51What we are actually trying to do here is because you have to understand that the treaty has actually stopped us in building any big infrastructure in this area.
11:01And also the entire system is very, very fragile nature. So we have to work around that.
11:06But under the treaty, we have to share the information, which is where we actually have a strategic advantage at this point.
11:14So you have to understand that Pakistan's 25% of GDP comes from irrigation and agriculture and this is the only source of water for them.
11:24Also in the wake of climate change, glacier systems are at a huge risk as one of the, Mr. Sinha has pointed out.
11:31I have been working in this area for far too long. About 40 to 50% of the water that flows in the upper Indus region actually comes from glacier belt.
11:40And these glacier systems are under huge pressure at this moment because of the changing climatic conditions.
11:46And last 10 to 15 years has been a problem for the entire sea system.
11:50So we ourselves are actually feeling the branch of the stress systems and our water flow has been reducing.
11:59And in fact, I am trying to call saying that we must review. You also have to understand this is 65 years old treaty.
12:08That time Britain would institutions also had a very different take.
12:12Now at this moment, they are, you know, they have a very different understanding, not only understanding, but also different placement in the political system.
12:21So we also have to see those strategic advantage that India has. It has gone so far.
12:26It is in a much better condition to negotiate a better, you know, a condition which Indians will be much more advantageous than Pakistanis.
12:36You know, yes, Sina, the truth is there will be those who are listening who will say there are moral questions involved.
12:42Water does not, you know, the water that flows from the Himalayas doesn't belong to one country.
12:47There is a natural flow of water. And that was really, many believed actually the purpose behind the Indus Water Treaty.
12:54Many actually saw it as an example where two countries, even in a conflict situation, would not allow water for ethical reasons to be stopped to one country.
13:04Do you believe, therefore, that the world will see this as a punitive measure against Pakistan and its farmers or India will be able to justify it to the world?
13:15Should we go and should we even attempt to stop water to Pakistan?
13:22I think as the panelists have said that you cannot stop water completely to Pakistan.
13:27But what even the international codes on the upper riparian and lower riparian weren't even finalized, weren't even discussed when India signed this treaty.
13:39We were under pressure by the Western powers, the World Bank to sign a patently unequal treaty, expecting that in good faith, what we do will be reciprocated by Pakistan.
13:51And what we've got from Pakistan, everyone, it's apparent. So I think we are well within our rights to do it.
13:58What the world thinks about whether we are in reach of the treaty, etc., is, in my opinion, and my personal opinion, is important, but not so important as sending a message to Pakistan that your lifeline, economic lifeline, is in our hands.
14:15And while we do not want to stop all the waters, but if you continue to attack India through, you know, actors, government actors, non-state actors, and continue, don't turn off the faucet of terrorism, then there will be a price to pay.
14:32So I think the moral question is this, that the general in Rabal Pindi must realize, the people of Pakistan must realize what the general in Rabal Pindi has got them into.
14:42So I think that is more important, in my opinion, and I think India will send a very clear message.
14:47And that's why it's held it in abeyance and not abrogated it.
14:51You know, just to tell our viewers, choking Pakistan completely, as our guests are saying, is not an easy task.
14:59The mean annual flow of the western rivers, that's the Indus, the Jhelum, and Chenab, is 136.1 million acre-feet.
15:07Compared with that, for example, the Bhakra Dam water storage capacity is 6.122 million acre-feet.
15:15Stopping all the Indus water from flowing to Pakistan would need, look at this number, 22 Bhakra-sized dams.
15:22Stopping all Indus water from flowing to Pakistan would need 22 Bhakra-sized dams.
15:29Am I correct with those numbers there, Mr. Bajaj?
15:32And that really is also part of the problem.
15:35That it's very, you know, the rhetoric will say, let's cut down the flow, as the Prime Minister said today, India's waters belong to India.
15:44But you will need to put 22 Bhakra-sized dams.
15:48Yes, there is a little bit confusion here.
15:54The Bhakra Dam is built on the Satloj river, which is part of the eastern river system.
16:00And this is one of the major dam components that is helping us to stop all flows of the eastern rivers to Pakistan.
16:09In fact, in the latest dam which has been constructed by India,
16:14now they are assuring that even the last drop of water from the eastern rivers will not go to Pakistan.
16:21But it has taken definitely these 30-40 years for us to build the infrastructure on the eastern rivers,
16:28by which we have been successful in harnessing all the waters in the eastern rivers within India.
16:34As far as the western rivers are concerned, of course, as one of the panelists has said,
16:41it is not easy to build so many dams.
16:44The Himalayas are an ecologically sensitive region.
16:49They are very young mountains and susceptible to earthquakes also.
16:55So, but I want to tell him that today we are much more advanced technologically
17:02and we can build resistance to earthquake-proof dams.
17:09As in the Terry Dam controversy that happened few years back,
17:14so many activists were so worried that you are building such a high dam in a sensitive area.
17:19But we were able to convince them that no, this dam has taken care of all these problems that people are expecting.
17:28And even an 8.5 magnitude earthquake will not damage the Terry Dam.
17:34So, today we have advanced technologically in dam construction technology.
17:40So, you are saying it's potentially, you are saying potentially technologically it's possible to do,
17:47to build that kind of infrastructure.
17:49But I just want a final word from you Dr. Anjal Prakash.
17:52What is the short term best case scenario?
17:55Let's not leave and look, we are at the moment looking at sending out a message to Pakistan here and now.
18:01What is the short term six month horizon message that can be sent out without necessarily jeopardizing the entire ecosystem of the area?
18:13Yeah.
18:14So, I mean the only thing that we can do for next couple of months is definitely what India is doing already now
18:20is to either the flood water or release the water without information to Pakistan.
18:26And these are the regions which will actually destroy the agriculture system totally because it's going to be very difficult for them to manage.
18:33You also understand it in Pakistan especially and I have done field work in those areas in Pakistan also
18:39where I have seen that the dependence of Punjab and Sindh on this water is hugely important for them.
18:45So, this is definitely and I have been saying this as a water as a strategic weapon is also that you can use it and not share the data and that will be there.
18:53Definitely people and the lower rank of the people in Pakistan which is 30 to 40 percent people will definitely will be affected.
18:59But that is the way in which they will create pressure on their government so that these kind of things that we are facing as Indians are not going to be repeated again.
19:07And that's something very strong.
19:08And last point I would like to also make when one is saying that water is a strategic weapon, when you are building these dams and diversions,
19:15you also have to take the military experience into account because you cannot build it because you also have to protect them from the future kind of deterrence in the region.
19:26And that means that there is much more nuanced planning and the sophisticated planning also has to happen.
19:31That is what I will say.
19:32Okay.
19:33Let me leave it there.
19:34Clearly, what we have tried to achieve through this discussion is more in the nature of an explainer to understand the challenges that India has but also the opportunities of sending out a strong message to Pakistan in the tough times that we now are undergoing.
19:50Maybe water is perhaps at times a more effective weapon than a military strike.
19:55Appreciate my guests joining me on the show tonight.