Tinatin Japaridze, an Analyst at the Eurasia Group, joined "Forbes Newsroom" to discuss the ongoing negotiations between Ukraine, Russia and the U.S., President Trump's threat to withdraw from participating, and the newly signed U.S.-Ukraine minerals deal.
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00:00Hi, everybody. I'm Brittany Lewis, a breaking news reporter here at Forbes. Joining me now
00:07is Tintin Japaritse, an analyst with Eurasia Group. Tintin, thank you so much for joining me.
00:13Thank you so much for having me back, Brittany.
00:14I want to talk about where we are exactly when it comes to the war between Russia and Ukraine,
00:20because this week we passed President Trump's 100-day marker in his second term,
00:26and he promised on the campaign trail he would end this war in a day. That hasn't happened yet,
00:31but Secretary of State Marco Rubio called this a very critical week in the talks between the two
00:36countries, and he said this over the weekend on Meet the Press, quote, throughout this process,
00:41it's about determining do both sides really want peace and how close are they or how far apart
00:47they are after 90 days of effort here, over 90 days of effort. He also added this, quote,
00:52There are reasons to be optimistic, and there are also reasons to be concerned. It's complicated.
00:57If this was an easy war to end, it would have been ended by someone else a long time ago.
01:01So talk to us first, if you could characterize exactly where we are in this, what he called
01:07very critical week in negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.
01:12Absolutely, Brittany, and I do actually agree with the Secretary that it's a complicated
01:17situation. There has been progress, especially over the last few days. We have seen that there's
01:24movement again, and it sort of tends to ebb and flow a little bit. There are stops and starts,
01:29and sometimes they're false, and other times they're not. But essentially, at the moment,
01:34I think in terms of the U.S. role in particular in the ceasefire negotiations and where the two sides
01:40are in peace talks, and the two sides being Russia and Ukraine, but also Ukraine and the United States,
01:49the U.S. has played an active but challenging role in ceasefire negotiations over the last few weeks
01:56in particular. So we've seen some positive signals from a recent meeting between the U.S.
02:01Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Vladimir Putin. But even so, there have been no major concessions as
02:08such from Russia as a result that might actually shift anything in a tangible way. So European
02:14governments, on the other hand, continue to support Ukraine. And with this sort of backing,
02:20Kiev insists on an unconditional truce and has already rejected key aspects of the latest U.S.
02:27ceasefire proposal. So Washington is doing its part in many ways to apply pressure on Moscow to a degree.
02:34It has also been applying pressure on Kiev, too. But in terms of Russia, there's threat of sanctions.
02:40And even so, a durable ceasefire is highly improbable in the near term.
02:45I want to talk about a meeting we saw really stunning images come out of the Vatican over the weekend,
02:51because the last time that President Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian president, met,
02:57it was fireworks in the White House, a late February meeting there. This weekend, they were at the Pope's
03:03funeral, and they were sitting almost knee to knee across from each other by themselves at the Vatican.
03:10I mean, talk to us about that stunning image, what that meeting meant and the impact that that meeting
03:16has on ceasefire negotiations. It really was a stunning image. I completely agree with you,
03:21Brittany. And I had to zoom in because at first, when the images surfaced online, I wasn't even sure.
03:27I mean, nowadays, you don't even know what's AI generated and what's real, right? It just looked so
03:31stunning to me. But the meeting indeed was very significant in terms of signaling at least some
03:38limited diplomatic flexibility. So Zelensky's overtures to Trump positioned Ukraine as open
03:45to concessions and progress in a way, which was essentially helpful for Ukraine's diplomatic posture.
03:51But that said, this did not necessarily grant Kyiv greater leverage with Washington as President
03:58Trump appears to be focused on achieving a broader deal with Russia aimed toward a US-Russia normalization.
04:04And he believes that he can hold more leverage over Ukraine in negotiations. You and I have talked
04:10in the past about how there's essentially two sets of talks that we are watching in real time. There's US-Russia
04:18normalization talks and then US negotiations on the ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. So at times,
04:27the two do diverge, but there are times when there is no overlap at all. So that is very interesting to
04:34me that in particular, this meeting was very important for US-Ukraine relations, I think. But in terms of
04:42any major concessions that we may have seen vis-a-vis a possible ceasefire, it takes, in most cases,
04:49two to tango. But in this case, it's going to take three to tango. Because just like we cannot forget
04:55Ukraine when we talk about a ceasefire or ceasefire negotiations, in this case, we also cannot forget
05:01that the important element here is Russia. And I would argue, Brittany, that actually, Russia is going to
05:08probably be the most important element here in terms of a durable ceasefire. Because until Vladimir Putin
05:17is ready to really come to the negotiating table and really roll up the sleeves and talk about
05:24something that can be done in a tangible, durable manner, there really can be no truce as a long-term
05:32solution, let alone a peace settlement. Let's talk about the Russia element here, because
05:38seems like Zelensky has been trying to shout from the rooftops, hey, Vladimir Putin does not
05:43negotiate in good faith. And it seems like President Trump could be picking up on that.
05:48This is what he said in a Truth Social post. Quote, there was no reason for Putin to be
05:52shooting missiles into civilian areas in cities and towns over the last few days. It makes me think
05:58that maybe he doesn't want to stop the war. He's just tapping me along. So it seems like President
06:03Trump is publicly musing, hey, is Putin taking me for a ride here? What do you think of that?
06:08Well, actually, the meeting that took place between Zelensky and Trump, it also led Trump to
06:16publicly threaten additional sanctions on Russia, if his counterpart Vladimir Putin refused to agree
06:22to a ceasefire. So we should note here that Trump has not necessarily been consistent in following through
06:28on such threats that he has made in the past. But he appears to be visibly irritated, because ultimately,
06:36he needs to get some sort of a win. Now, what that win looks like on the battlefield
06:44is not necessarily going to dictate to President Trump whether or not he's been able to get what
06:50he needs to get out of these negotiations, because he needs to show that he has delivered on his promise,
06:58if not to end the war to at least come up with some sort of a solution that results in a durable
07:06ceasefire. So not a ceasefire for two days, but something that lasts a little bit longer.
07:10Now, I'm very skeptical that this can be a long term ceasefire. Because again, we are dealing with
07:16Vladimir Putin, who I don't think is going to give up on taking over Ukraine anytime soon.
07:22And I think President Trump knows this to a degree, but he may be underestimating how important
07:30essentially having full control down the line of Ukraine is important to Vladimir Putin.
07:37This is not something that Putin started thinking about last week. And it's probably something that
07:43President Trump started thinking about and worrying about relative to Vladimir Putin
07:49somewhat recently. So it's a little bit difficult for him to calibrate the importance of Ukraine in
07:55this conversation with Russia compared to how he views the importance of this ceasefire and an end to
08:02the war. I want to talk about something you said something a Secretary of State Marco Rubio said,
08:08and that is both sides need to want peace need to want a permanent ceasefire for this to work.
08:14Is there evidence, you're saying no time soon, that Putin, that Russia wants a permanent ceasefire?
08:20Because he did offer that temporary ceasefire from May 8th to May 11th. Zelensky said that's an
08:25attempt at manipulation. But it does take Russia to come to the table in a meaningful way saying,
08:31hey, I want a ceasefire too. Does that look like that's happening?
08:35Well, I do think, Brittany, that actually Vladimir Putin had to give something to President Trump,
08:43because obviously, patience in Washington has its limits. And President Trump, and not just his
08:51broader administration, but him specifically, he was starting to really lose his patience,
08:56as you alluded to this earlier in your question. And I do feel that it was very important for Vladimir
09:04Putin to at least hand something over to his US counterpart. Now, is this a solution? I don't
09:12think so. I think it's a bit of a stretch to even call it a Band-Aid, because we have seen, sadly,
09:19that Russia does not necessarily abide by its own unilateral temporary halts to fighting in terms of
09:27any commitments to that, that it ends up breaking very quickly, whenever it decides to do so. So,
09:35in a way, the Victory Day-related temporary halt in fighting that President Putin announced for
09:44the May Day, and broadly for the May Victory Day observations, I think this signals that Moscow does
09:55not anticipate a lasting ceasefire agreement anytime soon. Because if they were to think that a longer
10:01term ceasefire is around the corner, I don't think that two, three days would really be worth even
10:09discussing at this point, because they would be working towards something more durable. So I am
10:14skeptical about this announcement. I am generally skeptical about these unilateral sort of moves and
10:21commitments to stop fighting for a couple of days, because what does that actually do? Perhaps it
10:29signals that there is some willingness to stop, but then there would really have to be a total halt
10:36in fighting. And in the prior examples, including over Easter, we have not seen that. So, you know,
10:44especially through the prism of a truce, if anything, both Russian and Ukrainian positions on the broader
10:50war, and any prospect of a peace settlement as such, continue to be unchanged. So at the core,
10:57we still have the same problem. There's massive distrust between the two sides. And as we've
11:04discussed over the past several months, when we revisit this topic, anything that is really going
11:09to signal a political settlement, a peace settlement, is going to be unlikely, not just in the coming
11:15weeks. But I would argue that we really are at least months away from even seeing realistically,
11:22can there be any sort of a durable solution here? And I'm just not sure that Vladimir Putin feels any
11:30real pressure, especially bearing in mind that Russia does continue to stand pretty strong on the battlefield
11:38for them to feel like they really need to stop fighting because they have to regroup and rearm.
11:44There's just no need for for them to do that. If you think that it's going to take months to really
11:49see a durable solution, do you think the United States then goes, you know what, we're done here,
11:54we're washing our hands of this, you two come to the table, you two negotiate without us,
11:59we're leaving here? Is there a real threat of the United States walking away from these negotiations?
12:05And what does that mean for the negotiations? If so? Well, I do think that there's a bigger threat
12:12and a bigger risk of this happening. So a few months ago, we would have said, especially under
12:19President Biden, we would have said that this was just not on the cards anytime soon. Now, I think
12:25because the current administration feels like its patience is being tested. The Trump administration
12:33and President Trump specifically, I do feel that he feels a level of irritation and potentially
12:40humiliation if Vladimir Putin does not come through. Because in many ways, I think Trump is actually
12:46putting his own reputation on the line to a degree in terms of saying, you know, I am trying to do what
12:53I can here to get the two sides to come together and achieve peace. But if one or the other is going
13:01to essentially not do their part, or do less than what they're supposed to do, then it makes him look
13:07bad. So he could very well throw the towel in and say, I don't want to do this anymore. Now, do I think
13:15that there will be pushback, including from his own administration, and they're going to probably talk
13:21him into changing his mind, because this is not a great strategic move, I don't think for the United
13:28States, I think that's possible. But I think him showing signs of at times losing his patience,
13:35being quite impulsive in terms of in terms of his decision making, he could very well say,
13:41I am not going to do this until you to come back to your senses, whoever that may be that he feels is
13:47the one that's not doing their part. And and that that's a risk. If that were to happen in the worst
13:54worst case scenario, I do think then at that point, Europe would really have to ramp up its involvement,
14:03its support, they're already working on that. We see not just the European Union as a bloc, but
14:08individual European governments that are very aware of this risk. And they understand that this is
14:15a possibility, especially under Donald Trump. So they do have to think about a what if scenario
14:23that is no longer just a tail risk. I think for some of those countries, that's actually a base
14:29case scenario that they have to operate under. And if that happens, there has to be a switch button
14:36where either individual European countries or the European Union as a bloc has to have some sort of a
14:43solution for what will they do if that comes to pass. Another development we saw this week is the
14:49United States and Ukraine signed that long anticipated minerals deal. And we saw that really
14:55break down in that fiery meeting between Zelensky and Trump at the White House back in February.
15:00Both sides touted this as a victory. What does this deal do for the negotiations and the war at large?
15:07Well, it was a big deal. And obviously, two months after their infamous Oval Office debacle,
15:15the US and Ukraine announced, as we know, at this point on Wednesday, that they had finally struck this
15:21long awaited minerals deal. The agreement is most likely going to get ratified by the Ukrainian
15:26Parliament, the Verhovna Rada, very soon. So there's no reason for us to think that something is going to
15:32change on that front, which I do think that this is actually good news. But we should note that in
15:38terms of this deal, that's, you know, sort of a more balanced, you know, the terms that are more
15:47balanced in the initial US proposals, what we saw initially from the United States was seen by Ukraine
15:54as an unfair deal. Whereas this draft, the final draft has been assessed, including by the Ukrainian
16:02side, as something that is more fair and more balanced than what had been floated in the past.
16:08So essentially, the deal is going to establish a joint investment fund with equal US and Ukrainian
16:14ownership, and on developing Ukraine's rare earth minerals, which just for your viewers, these are
16:20essential for electric vehicle batteries, various consumer and military technologies, as well as oil
16:27and gas projects. So this is a big deal. Now, the deal is limited to the new mineral resources projects,
16:33by the way, and this is designed not to interfere with Ukraine's EU relationships, or membership
16:41negotiations, which is very important for Kyiv. And this is something that they were trying to get.
16:46And it's also important to underscore that the US is actually shifting away from tying such economic
16:51agreements to repayment for past assistance, which, as you recall, Brittany, you and I talked about this,
16:57I believe, not long ago. And this suggests a more sort of an improved framework for future
17:04US-Ukraine relations going forward beyond just this deal. So it is a big deal. But by the same token,
17:12what the deal does not do is that it does not resolve the fundamental differences between Ukrainian
17:19and Russian perspectives on Ukraine's future. And as I said earlier, there will still continue to be
17:25a great deal of mistrust between them. And I'm very interested to see what the Kremlin has to say
17:30officially about this deal. So far, as of right now, as of Thursday afternoon, I have not seen any
17:37statements coming out of Moscow. It is quite late in Moscow at the moment. I think they're still very
17:42much digesting all of this. But at the end of the day, this deal and securing US involvement going
17:48forward is going to be a positive development for Kyiv and more broadly for Ukraine's defense efforts.
17:56I did read actually, one of the opposition MPs in Ukraine who said earlier that,
18:01no, we weren't choosing between good and bad. We were choosing between bad and worse.
18:06And I do think that compared to what was floated earlier, this is a much better deal for Ukraine.
18:13And I do think it's a good deal for the United States, because let's face it, pragmatically
18:17speaking, the US gets quite a lot out of it.
18:20I want to talk about what specifically you're looking out for next, because end of next week,
18:26we're going to see that temporary ceasefire that Russia has called. Historically, as you said,
18:30Putin doesn't really honor ceasefires. So I'm curious, after that, what specifically do you think
18:37comes out of this? Well, it remains to be seen overall how the talks on US-Russia normalization
18:46also progress. I'm very interested to watch that unfold in the background, because I think that is
18:53going to be important, because the US, I do believe, over the next few weeks will continue
18:59to be critical for the Ukraine-Russia ceasefire negotiations to continue and to stay on track.
19:06So in that respect, what's also happening behind closed doors between Vladimir Putin's people,
19:12so to speak, and President Trump's people is going to be very, very important. And that will,
19:17in many ways, dictate whether or not the Trump administration will be fighting for the interests
19:23of the Ukrainians or the Russians. Because I don't believe that it is possible for the United
19:30States, with all the goodwill in the world under any administration, to be able to represent the
19:37interests of the two sides equally. That's just not possible. Any dealmaker, I think, would tell us
19:45that the US would have to lean in one direction a little bit or the other. Being purely, purely
19:54objective is going to be very hard, because let's face it, we are still in the middle of a war. Ukraine
20:01and Russia are still very much at war. And it's going to be hard for anyone to say that we are being
20:08purely objective here. So that's one. So watching the US-Russia normalization process will be interesting
20:17over the coming weeks. Secondly, I do agree with you entirely, Brittany, that I am very skeptical that
20:25Russia will honor its own unilateral commitment to stop all fighting over the May Victory Day
20:35observance and celebrations. That is something that I am not necessarily counting on. And even if they
20:45were to stop, there will always be something that triggers Vladimir Putin, where either he feels that
20:53he's been provoked by Ukraine, or he felt that he had no other choice but to fire back. And I think
20:59that's how Russia will formulate this is we have to strike back because we were provoked. So in that
21:05respect, this very brief halt in fighting is not something that I am necessarily going to use as a
21:15thermometer for myself in terms of what this means for tangible, durable ceasefire talks going forward.
21:22It's going to be interesting. And perhaps the most interesting element here is going to be,
21:29again, the United States. At what point will Washington actually feel like it has had it,
21:37so to speak, and it no longer is interested in continuing to be actively engaged in the process?
21:43I don't think that Washington will ever completely walk away from this. It's just too big a deal. But even
21:49so, at what point would President Trump signal to his team that he's done, at least for the time
21:56being? Because if that happens, then we are going to have to talk again. And it's always a pleasure
22:04for me to talk with you. But we really have to then reassess what does this mean? Because everything
22:08that we've discussed today about whether Europe would get more actively engaged in these processes
22:16and what that means for European capitals, that is going to be worth the thought, because then
22:22that whole process will get accelerated at a crazy speed, because suddenly the pressure will be on
22:30times 100. So let's see what happens. But these are some of the signposts for myself and for us at
22:37Eurasia Group that we're watching very closely. And of course, we have to bear in mind that aside from
22:44diplomacy and negotiations and a lot of politicking that is going on, there's actual battlefield
22:52developments that are very, very important to bear in mind. And we need to see what's happening on
22:57that front. There is nothing that is going to be changing the situation overall, over the coming days
23:04and weeks. It's unlikely that anything will massively change. But there's some progress Russia has made,
23:10and it remains to be seen how much more they'll be able to do. That is worth watching, because at the
23:16end of the day, this is a hot war. This is not a hybrid war only, this is a hot war. And that's why
23:22it's going to be important for us to see, against the backdrop of diplomacy and politics,
23:28what is actually happening on the battlefield.
23:31I think those are two very important things to keep in mind. A, what's happening on the battlefield.
23:37And B, at what point does President Trump say, I need to walk away from this right now? Not fully,
23:42but I need to put this, I need to put this to rest just for now. And I think that that's going to be
23:48an important part of the conversation for us to join and to rejoin, to regroup on. And I always
23:54appreciate our conversations. I hope to have you on as the situation really continues to develop.
24:00And as we see what really is the fallout of this very critical week. Tintin Japarite,
24:06thank you so much for joining me. Thank you so much for having me back.