Pahalgam Attack: In a bold retaliatory move following the deadly terror attack in Pahalgam, India has closed its airspace to Pakistan — a decision with sweeping geopolitical and economic consequences. In this exclusive conversation, Dr. Vandana Singh, Chairperson, Aviation Cargo, FAII, breaks down what this closure actually means, how it’s impacting both Indian and Pakistani airlines, and why Pakistan’s fragile economy may bear the heavier blow.
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#PahalgamAttack #IndiaPakistanTensions #PakistanAirspaceClosed #AirspaceBan2025 #IndiaVsPakistan #PakistanAirspaceCrisis #IndiaPakistanConflict #IndianAirspaceBan #PakistanAviationCrisis #IndiaRetaliates #AirspaceShutdown #IndiaPakistanNews #NoFlyZonePakistan #GeopoliticalTensions #IndiaStrikesBack #AviationStandoff
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00:00The people, we the people, we the citizens are angry, we want answers. Huge economic impact
00:07other than the diplomatic fallout. Pakistan's economy is already facing challenges. That is
00:12not hidden from you, me or anybody else in the world. Impact is going to be extremely high and
00:18when we look at the economic outcome, the losses other than the overflight. Pakistan Airlines,
00:26international airlines, they obviously face increased operational costs, logistical complications.
00:34Some point in time, I say enough is enough. In fact, each one of us say enough is enough.
00:40In the wake of the deadly Pahalgam terror attack that claimed civilian lives,
00:46India has now taken a bold, diplomatic and strategic step by closing its airspace to Pakistani aircrafts.
00:55This move in airspace restrictions is already causing significant disruptions, particularly
01:03for Pakistan international airlines, which is rerouting its flights and facing major operational
01:12challenges. To discuss the broader economic and geopolitical impact of this and counter-terrorism
01:21effects and significance, we are joined by Dr. Vandana Singh. She is Chairperson of Aviation Wing of FAII.
01:30And she has a very long and broad experience in aviation and cargo sector. Dr. Vandana, first of all,
01:38thank you so much for joining us today on One India to discuss this very important issue.
01:42Dr. Vandana Singh. First of all, I want to ask you, for those unfamiliar with the issue, could you
01:49briefly explain what it means when a country closes its airspace to another? And what's actually being
01:57done by the Indian government? Of course, it's a retaliatory step after the deadly Pahalgam attack. But what's
02:04happening in the aviation sector? Thank you for having me on your show. It's an honor. And coming to the
02:12question first regarding airspace, before we go to that, I would like to first, you know, give my
02:19heartfelt condolences to the innocent civilians, the families who have lost their lives,
02:26going for a small little picnic and having such a huge blow to their lives. So the country really is
02:35looking for answers. The people, we, the people, we, the citizens are angry. We want answers. And at some
02:44point in time, I say enough is enough. In fact, each one of us say enough is enough. You know, having said
02:52we are a peace loving country, peace also has its limits. And here I would like to say even a limit
02:59has its own limit. So coming to various restrictions that are being imposed, these are obviously having
03:09significant bearings and significant impacts. And now coming to the specific aviation sector
03:18enclosure of airspace by the Indian government. First and foremost, like you said, this is a retaliatory
03:28move from our country. And we can imagine that this has happened a week later. Pakistan had already done
03:36this a week before. But we have done it very recently, as of yesterday morning. And this was the writing on
03:47the wall. It was coming. Because anywhere where there is escalating tension, these measures are taken.
03:54We are not on unfamiliar grounds when we talk about this. We have seen the conflicts that have happened,
04:02whether it's Ukraine, whether it's Russian airspace, whether it's North Korea, whether it's Israel,
04:08whether it's Russian airspace. This is something, this happens as an outcome of escalating tensions
04:18between two countries. And every country has the right to protect its own territory. And at this point
04:26in time, India rightfully is looking for answers. So the closure of the airspace that has happened as a
04:33retaliatory move. Now, in simple terms, when an airspace is closed, it means that the airline
04:42here in concern, Pakistan, international airline, or any one of the carriers, military carriers,
04:50cargo carriers, it cannot fly over our country, it cannot fly over India, vice versa, it implies to us
04:57us that we cannot fly over their country. And this is more a security measure. And of course, this is
05:05taken due to the escalating tensions between the two countries. Therefore, yeah, therefore, it's closure
05:14of airspace. And when there is closure of airspace, what happens, obviously, flights get rerouted. So the
05:21flight, the affected countries, they need to be rerouted, rerouted, and potentially they increase
05:29the flight timings, the fuel consumption, and it increases the operational costs.
05:35Okay.
05:35Also, yes, also, there are flight cancellations. And due to the increased costs, the airlines
05:44obviously have to take the brunt of the longer flight routes. There is, as I said, high fuel consumption.
05:51And obviously, disruptions and potential delays that follow. And yes, closure of our airspace is a
05:59retaliatory measure. It was coming after the Steadly Pelgam attack, but a week later, after what Pakistan
06:05did. So therefore, no, none of their aircrafts are allowed to fly our Indian airspace and vice versa.
06:14Whereas they are concerned, of course, they need to reroute their flights, their costs are going to
06:21increase, their operations are going to increase, there's going to be more fuel burn. And airspace
06:28closure is a significant diplomatic move, economic measure taken, reflecting the tensions between
06:37India and Pakistan. And following this attack, we are looking for answers.
06:41Yes, I was coming to the economic part only, Dr. Vandana. This closure, of course, has a lot of effects.
06:51I want to know what are the immediate effects to this ban for both Indian and Pakistani airlines,
06:58because you were mentioning that the Pakistani side has also banned for India, the air routes.
07:06So what are the immediate effects, especially in terms of costs and operation? How Pakistan's economy,
07:13which we know was already dire, is now going to face a blow after this?
07:18That's an important question regarding the economic impact. Of course, the economic impact is much,
07:26much more for Pakistan than India, because we are much more stronger, resilient and a strong nation,
07:36if I may say so. Let me begin with us. As far as the Indian carriers are concerned, the increased costs,
07:44the airlines are looking at approximately 77 to 80 crore weekly, due to reroutings and longer flight routes,
07:55which could account about 305 crore a month, as I said, due to rerouting to avoid the Pakistani airspace.
08:05But let's not forget that even though we will have flight schedule changes,
08:11we definitely can fly over other parts of the Middle East, be it the Saudi airspace, be it Oman,
08:21do Qatar, from that end, or we go over West Asia, or we go over Central Asia, and we can go. So for us,
08:30the routes are going to be slightly longer. For example, let's say from North India, Delhi,
08:35London flight would be more or less, instead of eight and a half hours, it's going to be about 11 hours plus.
08:43Or if you're flying, let's say from to Chicago, instead of 14 hours, it may turn around to be about
08:5118.5 to 19 hours. But having said that our options are plenty, as far as the routings are concerned,
09:01we have alternate routings. As far as Pakistan aviation and Pakistan airlines are concerned,
09:09PIA is concerned, or the other carriers are concerned, they straight away lose overflight
09:16fees. We've been playing, we as India are being banned. So let's say we paid overflight fees to
09:25Pakistan, which could range from 400 to 500 million annually. So if you're looking at a small
09:33ban, then you're looking at them losing over 100 million dollars straight away. So they are the ones
09:40who are going to face the brunt. When it comes to operational challenges, Pakistan Airlines,
09:48International Airlines, they obviously face increased operational costs, logistical complications,
09:55due to rerouting of flights. Do not forget that now they have to fly over China, Chinese airspace,
10:02or through the Sri Lankan, below the Sri Lankan airspace. And that's a long, long duration to reach
10:09those points. What are those points? That could be Kuala Lumpur, that could be Bangkok, that could be
10:14Singapore, that could be Melbourne, that could be any point in Australia, all that, Jakarta, all of
10:20Southeast Asia, everything gets impacted. Now, what happens with that? The trade gets affected.
10:27So more or less, the impact is going to be extremely high. And when we look at the economic
10:32outcome, the losses, other than the overflight fees that we were paying to them, losses due to this trade
10:44impact, loss of cargo, loss of air freight, because when the flights are taking such a long path
10:52to reach that part of Southeast Asia, or below that, Australia, then you can imagine you're having high
10:59fuel burn, due to which you cannot fill so many seats, you have to carry more fuel. More fuel means
11:07in the belly, you can't carry cargo. When you don't carry cargo, that means there's no air freight.
11:12When there's no air freight, there is no trade. When there's no trade, imagine then it gets rooted via,
11:18let's say, an ocean channel, it gets converted to ocean freight. Now, when it's time sensitive cargo,
11:24time sensitive shipments, whether it's perishables, whether it's, you know, ready-made garments, whether
11:31it's fashion, whether it's something like the mango season that's on, perishable, that all gets affected,
11:38and that cannot go via ocean freight. So all of that is a huge economic impact, other than the diplomatic
11:45fallout, which, of course, has a huge impact as far as Pakistan is concerned, because their entire
11:53vision East Asia policy then goes for a six. Over to you. You very well explained, Dr. Vanna,
12:01step by step, how it's gonna make a very, very huge impact on Pakistan's economy. I want to understand
12:10more about the Indian part. And how significant is the estimated $600 million loss for Air India?
12:18I was reading few articles this morning, and I got to know this. And due to this ban, what long-term
12:25impacts we can face here? Okay, so first and foremost, obviously, Air India takes the brunt here,
12:34because that is the major carrier for us. We have Air India, we have Indigo, we have ACASA, and we have
12:41very few other airlines that are coming up. Of course, we want it to be a healthy aviation market,
12:47and we are working towards that. But Air India also being a part of Star Alliance takes the major hit
12:54here. Indigo, meanwhile, canceled its flights to Tashkent, Almaty, and certain other destinations. But when,
13:02like you said, you have read, it is an impact, significant impact, the losses could exceed
13:10maybe about 50 million, in fact, if it goes for a very, very long time, but I don't expect that to
13:17happen. So what you've read, I think that impact is also going to be absorbed, supported, you know,
13:25somewhere the Indian government is going, is the aviation ministry, the Indian government is going to
13:30support the airlines, they're already coming with policies, they're already supporting the carriers
13:36to say, you can fly over these following countries, they are getting the necessary permits. And also,
13:43they are trying to mitigate these losses by helping on the tax front and various other
13:54factors that the government is supporting. So yes, there are operational challenges that, let's say,
14:01Air India is going to face, longer flight routes, leading to increased fuel consumption again, reduced cargo
14:08capacity, but not to the extent that Pakistan is choked. So as I mentioned, a flight may take a longer
14:17time, because we have many alternatives to reach Europe or to reach US, our trade is not going to be
14:25impacted the way, you know, Pakistan is going to be affected. They are having to face a significant blow.
14:34For us, I think we are a resilient country, which is going to absolutely absorb this impact. And we have
14:42a very strong government. And that is going to back our carriers. So I can say that with surety of being a
14:52part of the aviation industry. Also, when we look at long term consequences, airlines growth and expansion,
15:02for us, I think our orders, Boeing and Airbus, etc, that Air India has recently ordered,
15:09of course, well in time. Industry wise, of course, there is an impact. As I said, Indigo has just
15:16canceled two flights, Tashkent and Almaty. And economic implications, yes, the higher operational costs,
15:24which goes, which goes, which is obvious, it gets passed on to passengers. And if that affects the
15:31entire supply demand, let's not forget that a lot of families, with the summer vacations coming on
15:39here, in this part of the world plan to, you know, take their families abroad, or somewhere in Europe,
15:47or somewhere in the US, they will have to incur higher costs, obviously, because of the longer routes.
15:53But that is an operational fallout. And I think they, they have to understand that impact.
16:01The last question, which I want to ask you is, Dr. Wanda, that all these measures, which is taken by
16:08the Indian government, do you see this airspace ban influencing Pakistan's actions, especially
16:17in terms of its support to terror networks, and could such economic, and we have also taken a lot of
16:24diplomatic measures against Pakistan. Will these things lead to a positive shift in Kashmir?
16:32Okay, this is a sensitive question, but I would try to answer your question here. Of course, the airspace
16:40ban, which has now come into effect, will undoubtedly put significant economic pressure on Pakistan.
16:50This could obviously potentially lead to revaluation of its priorities and its actions. So let's not forget
17:00that they really need to revaluate their priorities and their actions, because it is having a significant
17:07impact on them. Now, Pakistan's economy is already facing challenges that is not hidden from you, me,
17:15or anybody else in the world. And now there is additional pressure from the airspace ban that could
17:22really, you know, further exaggerate these issues. So when we talk about terror network support,
17:32they really need to see, is it the right priority? Is this the right action? I'm not the expert here to
17:40say that. But when it comes to terror network support, it is unlikely that the economic pressure alone
17:48will immediately change Pakistan's behavior regarding terror networks. Because there is a complex
17:55relationship, and we also read about it as common citizens, there's a complex relationship with these
18:02groups. And its actions are driven by a mix of strategic, ideological, and security considerations.
18:11That is also something that is not hidden from us. However, when there is sustained economic pressure,
18:19this does create an environment where Pakistan is more inclined to reconsider its support for certain
18:28groups. And that's where these dynamics play. And that's where such bands, such as the airspace
18:36airspace ban, or the other bands that are coming into effect, put pressure and has its own long term
18:43implications, involves diplomatic engagement. And I'm sure sooner or later, that this pressure
18:51will create an environment where Pakistan definitely is more inclined to reconsider its priorities and its
18:58actions. Thank you so much. Thank you so much, Dr. Vanna, for joining us today on One India. It is
19:04always delightful to talk to you. And we have got a lot of insights today, after talking to you about
19:11this whole aviation thing which is happening between India and Pakistan. And once again, thank you so
19:17much for joining us. Thank you so much. The honor is all mine. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you, ma'am.
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19:34Caitlin, and I've been doing this before.
19:36Thank you. I'm sorry for sharing this.
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