15 minute meeting. Kellogg minus plan
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00:00All right, Alexander, let's talk about the U.S.-Russia negotiations that are unfolding.
00:09We had the historic, it was historic, Alexander, the historic 15-minute meeting between Trump and
00:18Zelensky, absolutely historic meeting. The world has changed because of that meeting.
00:24And then we had Lavrov, the full interview on Face the Nation. The segments of the interview
00:34were published on Thursday, but we actually got the full 40, 45-minute interview. And Lavrov said
00:41many interesting things in that interview, which is significant because it is the foreign minister
00:47of Russia appearing on collective West mainstream media, which must signal something. We also have
00:54some statements from Rubio. And we also had a Lavrov-Rubio phone call. And Trump also commented
01:01on the meeting that he had with Zelensky and a lot of talk about Crimea, hyper-focused on Crimea,
01:11which I think, Alexander, is a red herring. If that's the correct word to use, I do believe
01:17that Crimea is something that Russia never asked for. It was never part of their terms.
01:24And all of a sudden, it's what Trump is talking about. It's what the collective West mainstream
01:30media is talking about. It's what they're trying to get Zelensky to bend on. Just accept Crimea as
01:37part of Russia, and then we could move forward with the Kellogg plan. Anyway, get into all of this
01:43that is unfolding. The whole thing is, the whole process of the last week is strewn with red
01:51herrings. You're absolutely correct. Crimea is a red herring. Crimea is, it's not the substantive
01:58issue that we are constantly being told that it is. Or to be more precise, American recognition de jure
02:06that Crimea is part of Russia is a complete red herring. Because as you rightly say, the Russians
02:12are not demanding that the United States recognise that Crimea is a part of Russia. It has never been
02:19a proposal, a serious proposal, or any kind of proposal that the Russians have ever put forward.
02:26Now, the other thing that is a complete red herring is the meeting in Rome. The meeting in Rome
02:32was, as far as I'm concerned, ugly farce. Ugly because it took place in a cathedral on the eve
02:42of a funeral. And I don't like that, but okay, let's move on beyond that.
02:48No, no, you're right. You're right. That's my feeling.
02:50Absolutely.
02:51And I noticed that you made that point in your programme. I mean, Zelensky turns up again
02:56in his trademark battle fatigues. He doesn't go in a suit, tie, or anything of that kind
03:04to a funeral. And I'll just say a few things about that meeting, as you rightly say, 15 minutes.
03:10But they facilitated it, Alexander, correct? The Vatican, Maloney, the West.
03:15Yeah, everybody. The Vatican authorities. I mean, they were all involved in trying to get
03:21this meeting together. I mean, the Vatican, I mean, I have to say this. It tells you a lot
03:26about what's going to happen in the Vatican now, after Francis's death, because we must
03:32prepare for a significant shift in Vatican, in the Church's policy, the Catholic Church's
03:40policy on the Ukraine conflict. Because, I mean, they not only made St. Peter's Basilica
03:46available for a meeting between Trump and Zelensky, but they also arranged for the media to be
03:54there to photograph the meeting. And all of this was done, as I said, literally moments
04:00before the funeral service for the Pope begins. I mean, it shows, I feel extraordinary disrespect
04:06to the Pope who was being buried. But it also shows that the Vatican is now shifting very,
04:15very much behind the Europeans and the British on the Ukraine conflict. And I think that's
04:22a thing. Yeah, it may not be an important thing, but it's something to take note of.
04:27And the meeting was clearly arranged by the Europeans. In fact, we were being told for days
04:33in advance that Zelensky wanted to meet Trump in Rome. It doesn't seem to me, despite what
04:38the Americans are now saying, that Trump was at all keen on this meeting. As you said,
04:44it lasted for over 15 minutes. Macron was hovering around. There's been attempts to pretend that Trump
04:51didn't shoo him away, though it's clear to me that he did want to participate in the meeting. And we now
04:59have a lip reader coming forward and giving an account of what was said based on lip reading,
05:07which seems to confirm that. Three chairs. Three chairs, they had. Three chairs, absolutely.
05:12And it wouldn't tell that it was now for the interpreter, which is ridiculous. I mean, anyway,
05:1715-minute meeting. And clearly, nothing of any great substance or moment can have possibly
05:25been discussed in just 15 minutes. And after that, we were told before that there was supposed to be
05:36a follow-up meeting between Zelensky and Trump, which would have been the substantive one, presumably,
05:43except it never happened because Trump went straight to the airport and went back home.
05:47So he obviously wasn't keen on meeting Zelensky again. So this whole story about this
05:55meeting is a complete red herring as well. It's a massive media operation we've seen
06:02put out over the last couple of days, which really isn't meaningful. And I get to say something else.
06:10I think, to a great extent, Trump's true social post, in which he criticised Putin all over again
06:20for the missile strike against Kyiv. I think that's also a bit of a red herring as well,
06:26in the sense that Trump made that criticism of Putin before. It's nothing new on Trump's side.
06:36But by far, the bigger part of that truth social post was a criticism of the New York Times,
06:44over the course of which he made a number of quite interesting points about the conflict,
06:49such as that any idea of returning Crimea or indeed any other territory to Ukraine was
06:55ridiculous. Secondly, that the war is losing, that they are losing the war in Ukraine.
07:01That is, as far as I'm aware, by the way, the first time that any Western official has come close
07:08to saying that. If you actually read the post, it is there. Now, I wouldn't put too much weight on that
07:15either because, again, this wasn't a true social post, really, about the war. It was more about
07:21Trump's feud with the New York Times. But there it was. I think there are reasons to think that Trump
07:27is irritated with Putin. But I don't think the missile strike on Kyiv is really the cause
07:32of his irritation. So anyway, we need to put all of that aside. The Rome meeting,
07:38the stories about, you know, Crimea, the true social post, we need to try and focus on what is
07:47really going on. And the most important of the two most important events that happened over the
07:54course of the last week were first, the Americans unveiled their proposals to the Europeans last week,
08:03which I would refer to as Kellogg Plus. It makes a few tweaks in the Russian direction. The second
08:12was the meeting with Wick…
08:13The Kellogg Plus or Minus?
08:15Or Minus. You could argue that it is Minus.
08:17It's a little less of Kellogg.
08:19It's a little less of Kellogg. It's a little less of Kellogg. Exactly. So anyway, Kellogg Minus,
08:24let's call it Kellogg Minus, because in a way that's what it is. So Kellogg Minus, we had an
08:29absolutely crazy European-Ukrainian proposal, which, I mean, it was absolutely bonkers.
08:39But the Americans are clearly working with Kellogg Minus. We know that Wittgoff took that to Putin.
08:48Putin, from everything that we know, said no. And if you actually follow closely what Lavrov
08:58said on Face the Nation, the Russians are also… I mean, he confirmed that they are going to say
09:08no. In fact, the interview, I forget her name, she actually said it seems to…
09:14Brennan. Brennan. I think Brennan, yeah.
09:17That's right. She actually said towards the end, it seems to me that Russia is not making any
09:24concessions at all. It's actually there in the whole interview. By the way, again, CBS published
09:33excerpts of that interview over the course of the previous days. And as I rather suspected,
09:41overall, they were quite misleading. I don't know whether that was done intentionally. I mean,
09:45often, as we know, American TV channels publish tasters of an interview. But the excerpts they published
09:59before sort of gave the impression that the Russians were being more flexible than they were,
10:07that they were heading towards accepting Kellogg Minus. But when you listen and watch
10:15the entire interview, it is absolutely clear that that is not the case. So Kellogg goes to Moscow.
10:24He meets with Putin. Putin clearly says no to Kellogg Minus. But he does say, look,
10:34we're now at that point where we can sit down and negotiate with the Ukrainians, which is, of course,
10:40what the Russians have been saying all along. At no point since the start of the special military
10:47operation, how the Russians attempted, refused direct negotiations with the Ukrainians. The people who
10:54have refused direct negotiations are the Ukrainians. They've even published a decree which forbids direct
11:06negotiations. Now, what I am guessing perhaps happened at that Rome meeting, which lasted all of 15 minutes,
11:15is that maybe just maybe Trump told Zelensky, I want direct negotiations between you and the Russians to begin.
11:25And this is perhaps the message that he confirmed conveyed. And we see that, apparently, again, according to the
11:32lit reader, Zelensky wasn't entirely was telling Trump, I don't particularly like the way you're going about
11:39things. So, I mean, that that it seems to me is probably where we are. As I said, put aside crime,
11:48put aside the Rome meeting, put aside or, you know, all the other things that we're hearing about the truth,
11:55social posts, focus on what is actually apparently being discussed. We're now in a position where
12:02there's talk, finally, of direct negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. The Russians, as they
12:08have always done, are saying, yes, the Ukrainians, well, we just don't at this moment, no.
12:15Well, yes, with no preconditions. Yes, with no preconditions, yes.
12:19And Ukraine is saying, no, we want an unconditional ceasefire before we go into bilateral negotiations.
12:27Correct. And if you go to the European proposal, the one that the Europeans put as a counter to
12:36Kellogg Minus, I mean, it's quite clear that the Ukrainians are still angling for a security guarantee
12:42from the United States. And they're saying that the security guarantee must be at the level of
12:48Article 5 of the Washington Treaty. In other words, the United States must enter into a full-fledged
12:54alliance with Ukraine. Something the Trump administration, Donald Trump himself, have
13:00consistently ruled out the Ukrainians are still insisting on it. And it's not entirely clear,
13:07but looking at that European proposal, I strongly get the impression that the Ukrainians want that
13:14guarantee. They still want that guarantee alongside any unconditional ceasefire that is put into effect.
13:24Well, Trump, when he arrived in the United States, I believe he made the statement either before he was
13:33boarding Air Force One or when he arrived back to the US. He said he was asked by a reporter
13:40what he wants from Putin. And Trump said that, I just want him to stop shooting. He said, I want him to
13:47sign the deal. We have all the terms in place. And he said that he wants this deal signed and to be done
13:55with so that we can just get back to life. I think statements like that from Trump are not proper.
14:03I think they're not helping the situation. I mean, the Russians understand. I think the Russians
14:09understand that this is Trump, and this is the way he deals with the media, and this is the way he
14:16phrases his remarks in this type of manner. But you just can't say, as the President of the United
14:24States, I just want you to sign this thing, which is very far off from June 2024.
14:33Very far off, but over time, which I think is the point that Lavrov was making on Face the Nation,
14:39give it another six months, give it another year. Over time, that Kellogg Minus plan could get closer
14:47to Istanbul. Plus, of course, six months to a year, everything on the ground, on the front lines,
14:53changes as well. But anyway, I think that by saying, let's just sign this thing,
15:01which is a framework, let's sign it and just get back to life. It shows a lack of understanding as
15:10to how existential the conflict in Ukraine and NATO expansion, this proxy war and NATO expansion,
15:18was and remains for Russia. It downgrades the entire conflict in a way. And maybe it's Trump's
15:29way of just saying, you know, I just, I want to be done with this thing. I want to announce a ceasefire,
15:37I want to announce negotiations, and then I can just drop Ukraine. But it doesn't take into
15:42consideration that you're not really getting a lasting solution to this problem, which calls it
15:50to question, does Trump really want a lasting solution to this problem? Because that's definitely
15:57what Russia is saying. Ukraine and the Europeans, they want to keep the conflict going. Russia's
16:04saying, we want a lasting solution. Trump is saying, let's just sign this thing and let's move on.
16:11Well, he doesn't want a lasting solution. He wants an end to the fighting, which will help him
16:19politically, or so he believes, in all sorts of ways. It doesn't help the Russians. And I think
16:25that's the problem. I think he is focused on getting the fighting over as quickly as possible,
16:30so that he can start to move troops out of Europe, and start doing all kinds of other things that he
16:35wants to do, and say that he's the great deal maker who achieved all of this, and doesn't have
16:40to, as he thinks, worry about this conflict in Europe any longer. The Russians have a completely
16:46different perspective on all of this. And you said that these kinds of statements by Trump are improper.
16:56My own view about this is that Lavrov was saying exactly the same on Face the Nation. He said,
17:04I'm not going to discuss what is actually going on in the negotiations. There was constant attempts
17:10to try to get him to disclose things that are being discussed and spoken about in private.
17:19And he said no. And at one point, he said, you know, if you want to talk to somebody about what's
17:24going on in the negotiations, why don't you talk to Zelensky? But I think actually, he wasn't really
17:32thinking about Zelensky. He was actually thinking about Trump. He didn't want to speak about Trump.
17:37He didn't want the name Trump. But it seems to me that there was a gentle rebuke of Trump there
17:43from Lavrov saying, look, you know, if this is a serious negotiation, and Lavrov said this,
17:50if this is a serious negotiation, it has to be conducted in private. We cannot have, you know,
17:58people going out and saying this has been agreed, and that has been agreed, and we moved forward in
18:02this way. And we're almost on the brink of getting a deal done. And these are the terms and all
18:07of that. We cannot, we cannot conduct negotiations in this sort of way. And I don't think Trump is
18:17listening. I just think he's listening very much to all that the Russians are telling him. I don't
18:25think he's really understood the conflict. I don't think he particularly wants to understand the
18:30conflict. He's grasped the point about NATO. But you see, even on NATO, Kellogg Miners is an advance
18:39on Kellogg, in the sense that the original Kellogg plan basically was about kicking,
18:45postponing Ukraine's NATO entry by 10 or 20 years. Kellogg Miners simply says that Ukraine won't
18:53seek membership of NATO. Well, Ukraine previously has not sought membership of NATO. When it became
19:01independent, it actually enshrined neutrality in its constitution. And then it changed. It changed
19:08its policy entirely and came back and said that it did want to become a member of NATO after all.
19:17And we are now reading in the New York Times that American officials, and that is clearly
19:23Claire Kellogg, were telling the Ukrainians in Rome, in London, go ahead, sign up to this,
19:31because when Trump is out of the way, the next administration will support your NATO membership
19:38bid. So the Russians obviously read the New York Times, and they could see all of that. So
19:44this is not a negotiation that works for the Russians. They're trying to get Trump to see this.
19:55Obviously, I'm sure that they're complaining about all of this to Witkoff. Witkoff, I think,
20:02has a much clearer understanding of the Russian position than any other American official does.
20:08Rubio perhaps is starting to get some sense of it. But this constant attempt, which is very American,
20:17by the way, to move the deal forward and to get it done fast, which Trump is doing, is, I think,
20:23ultimately counterproductive. And if it causes, if the if the negotiations eventually collapse,
20:32that will be the reason for it. I want to go back to Crimea and this issue of Crimea.
20:41Is Crimea going to be used as as a way to to throw Russia under the bus and for Trump to exit
20:52Project Ukraine for the US media to blame the failure of of the negotiations on Ukraine squarely
21:00onto Russia for the Europeans to to continue to commit to the conflict in Ukraine by saying that Russia
21:09refuses to to negotiate? And are they going to say that you see even even Zelensky has agreed to
21:18to a de facto not de facto recognition of Crimea? I say that because there is the possibility that
21:26Zelensky does come out with a statement in the next 10 days, which I think is the time frame that
21:32Trump allegedly presented Zelensky with 10 days to decide. There is the possibility that Zelensky
21:38comes out and says, OK, I'll agree on the US. And that's what we're talking about here. I'll agree
21:45on the US is recognition of Crimea. I'll go with that as long as we're not obligated as Ukraine
21:52to recognize Crimea de jure. OK, so you can come out with that statement. Once he comes out with that
21:59statement and the Russians are going to come out and say, well, Crimea is not really the issue.
22:06Zaporozhye is going to remain with Russia in our constitution. We talk about the the four territories
22:12as being Russian sanctions relief was never part of the terms, but but OK, we haven't received any any
22:19proposals for that. There's all kinds of things that that that Russia and Lavrov said on face the
22:28nation, which hinted at at the fact that that Russia and the United States are far off from an
22:34agreement, but they can work on it. But everything seems to be hinging on Crimea. So all all the US
22:40needs to do and all Zelensky needs to do. And I'm sure the Europeans are telling him to do it is to
22:45just come out and say, OK, I'll agree with the US on Crimea. Once he does that, it looks like everybody
22:50will be ready. Ukraine, Europe, the US to blame a possible breakdown and talks on Russia because Russia
22:59was not flexible on on the Crimea issue or they couldn't see past the the Crimea issue. You see, Zelensky
23:08made a huge concession. He made a huge, the biggest concession ever. And Russia just couldn't
23:12get past that. I think I think this is highly likely. Can I just say I would there are reports
23:18circulating in the I think it was the US media. I can't remember where I saw them that Trump is
23:23apparently surprised at how inflexible supposedly Putin is that he'd imagined that Putin would show
23:32more flexibility and that he's unhappy by the seems like a setup. Sorry, sorry. Yeah. Well,
23:39I didn't want it to set up exactly because, of course, I don't know what expectations Trump went
23:45into when he started this whole process rolling. It needs to be stressed. The person who started
23:52this whole process rolling was Trump. But I mean, I wouldn't be at all surprised if that is the
23:57outcome. The Europeans come along and tell Zelensky, look, for heaven's sake, we don't like this proposal
24:01any more than you like this proposal, but ultimately doesn't mean anything. The Americans recognize
24:06Crimea. That's up to them. Like the NATO thing that you were describing. Exactly.
24:11Like the NATO thing that you were describing. Just go ahead. Just go ahead. Just say that you agree
24:17to all of this and then demand that the Russians immediately agree to a ceasefire and then spin it
24:23all out indefinitely, which of course the Russians won't agree to. Now, I think this is quite possible.
24:30And I think if you if I was a gambling man, which I'm not, I think there's a chance that we could
24:37actually say that this will be the eventual outcome, at which point Trump walks out, blames the Russians,
24:45imposes further sanctions on Russia, gets his friend Lindsey Graham to pass his bone-crunching sanctions.
24:53Notice how completely unfazed about all the threats of further sanctions in the Face the Nation interview
25:01Lavrov was. And he didn't deny, by the way, that he's a person who actually would prefer to see the
25:07sanctions remain in place. He said, I said it. So, I mean, you know, which I think the interviewer just
25:15couldn't quite get a head around. But anyway, I wouldn't be surprised if that is where this all this
25:22whole thing goes. But it's important to say that in that case, Trump is in a worse position. Trump,
25:32I'm talking about Trump, arguably the United States, is in a worse position than they were in
25:39before Donald Trump became president. Because the war will go on. Trump admits that the war
25:45is being lost. All right. He will extricate himself from the war, but people will nonetheless still
25:51blame him for the outcome because the war will continue and the war will eventually result in
25:58Ukraine's defeat. And the relationship with Russia, which Trump has repeatedly said he wants to repair,
26:07will have been destroyed irretrievably with Russia moving closer to China.
26:13Now, if you reel all the way back to what we were saying back in the summer,
26:22we said if we get into a negotiation process, this is quite likely what the outcome is going to be,
26:31which is why it was unwise for Trump to get into a negotiation in the first place.
26:37But there it is. I mean, he went down this road. He thought it would be much easier than he imagined.
26:45He expected that Putin would jump at any deal that was presented to him. He appears to have imagined
26:52that if he offered to recognize Crimea as Russian, that would somehow impress the Russians. And as I said,
26:58it's quite likely he's going to find over the next 10 days that that isn't so. And as I said,
27:03we will probably end up with that very outcome, which, as I said, is completely contrary to what
27:09I think he originally started to wanted to do. Of course, you can make the argument that the reverse
27:16may also be the strategy. Right. I would tell you can make the argument as well, which is that
27:21Trump is presenting Ukraine with such an easy thing for them to accept.
27:25The Crimea thing, knowing that that's Zelensky for many reasons. Yeah.
27:32I mean, there are reports which claim that a lot of the Banderites in the military are telling him,
27:36don't you dare make any concessions or else we're coming, we're coming after you. I mean,
27:40there's actual videos of Banderites telling him this. So, so you could also argue that perhaps Trump
27:46is presenting such an easy thing for, for Ukraine to go with, which is the, the de facto recognition,
27:53if you want to call it that of Crimea, in order to push the negotiation process along,
27:58knowing that Zelensky will not be able to, to accept it. And then the, the blame can fall on,
28:04on Zelensky and Ukraine. Well, possibly, and it may very well be. I mean, that's what his son,
28:09Donald Trump Jr. appears to think. That's what David Sachs appears to think. And the idea of entering
28:16to direct negotiations with the Russians, which is what Putin talked about at the meeting with Wyckoff,
28:23and which Trump also now seems to be taking up. That is going to be very, very difficult for
28:30Zelensky to agree to. He's still got his October 2022 decree, which forbids direct negotiations with
28:38the Russians. He has consistently refused to negotiate with the Russians or to rescind that decree.
28:46So, you know, it'll be a very difficult thing politically for him to do, even though,
28:52arguably, it is what he should do. He should absolutely go forward with negotiations on the
28:58basis of Kellogg minus, which, as you rightly say, he should accept. Now, again, it's difficult to know
29:06what Trump and his people are thinking, whether they've strategised this in this way. I don't know
29:17what exactly it is that Trump is thinking, you know, who he thinks will reject this.
29:23Perhaps he doesn't really care. Perhaps if his purpose is just to get out of this,
29:30then it really doesn't matter to him whether it's the Russians or whether it's the Ukrainians.
29:37If it's the Ukrainians, then he just walks away, cuts off military assistance and intelligence
29:43sharing. The Ukrainians and the Europeans look after, take over the war. He goes on and, as he puts it,
29:50lives his life or whatever it is. If it's the Russians, it's the same. He walks away.
29:55His mediation efforts have failed. He extricates himself from the United States from the war.
30:01He imposes sanctions on Russia. This is, I think, well, certainly not what he initially wanted to do,
30:11but he's still able, as he thinks, to go ahead and live his life.
30:15I mean, it could be as crude and as simple as that.
30:21Yeah. Just to wrap up, there's no doubt that for whatever reason, whatever the strategy is,
30:28if there is a strategy from the Trump side of things, they've decided that it's going to be
30:33Crimea that is going to be the issue that will decide what happens.
30:40Well, indeed, which is odd, which is very strange.
30:44Well, indeed, Crimea isn't the 2014 issue. When this conflict began, the latest part of this
30:54conflict began in February 2022. It was Donbass. And the Russians have already moved on to Donbass.
31:03Now they've moved beyond Donbass. What Trump wants to do is reel it all the way back to 2014,
31:12ignoring all that's happened in the past 11 years. It's not going to happen.
31:17Yeah. But from a US political perspective, he can put the blame on Obama. He can put the blame on
31:24Biden. Crimea is a lot easier for people who have not been following the war in detail.
31:32It's a lot easier for them to recognize, to understand. You know, from a marketing messaging
31:40perspective, you know, if you're going to make this the central issue of everything that's going on with
31:46the negotiations with with Project Ukraine, then I guess, you know, it does kind of make some some
31:54strange sense in that as it's talking about Donbass and East Ukraine and four territories that even the
32:00Face the Nation, you know, host could even say Zaporozh. I mean, and Lavrov noticed that. I mean,
32:07all these other issues, I think, is stuff that'll just, you know, go over a lot of people's people's
32:13heads who have not been following this in such detail. But Crimea is easy.
32:18Crimea is easy. Absolutely. But to repeat again, whichever it is, and I accept completely,
32:29you know, that this is something that Trump can sell. It's still a lot less than he said he wanted.
32:37I mean, he wanted, he wanted some kind of long term deal with the Russians. He wanted to,
32:45he wanted to end the war. Now, he hasn't, he isn't going to end the war. He's not going to end the war
32:54on a negotiated terms. And that is a failure. You know, if you try to achieve a peace,
33:05a truce, and you don't succeed, that is a failure. And some people inevitably are going to say to him
33:13in the United States, well, you know, eventually you came round, but you should never have gone
33:18down this road in the first place. You should just backed Ukraine to the hilt. You see, it's really
33:24Putin who's really the evil person. And you were deluded and naive. So he is in spite of the fact that I
33:32agree. I mean, you know, if he just pulls out, blames the Russians or Ukraine or whoever, it
33:37probably doesn't matter too much politically. But he will still come under some criticism
33:44if this thing fails, especially if it is the Russians who ultimately are handed the blame for
33:54the fact that the negotiation hasn't succeeded. Yeah. A final question.
34:01With midterms coming up, I mean, it's not right around the corner, but it's an issue. They are going
34:08to come, the midterms. What would benefit Trump more to get out of Ukraine right away and then maybe
34:18take the criticism over the next couple of weeks. And then Ukraine just leaves people's
34:26people's minds that they just don't think about it anymore. Even if Russia wins the conflict,
34:33Americans are just not going to, to care one way or another what happens in Ukraine
34:37or for the Trump administration to try and keep Zelensky afloat, at least until after the midterms.
34:52I think the second would be a very bad idea. First of all, it may not be possible.
34:56And if Zelensky falls before the midterms or there's a military collapse before the midterms or anything like
35:03that, then if Trump, the United States are still supporting Zelensky at that time, it won't look
35:09good at all. Also, it won't be popular at any time with parts of the MAGA movement, which are not keen
35:17on Zelensky at all. They'll say, you know, this is a man who insulted you at the Oval Office meeting.
35:25What on earth are you doing wasting your time backing him? So I don't think that is a good approach.
35:31If the United States walks away from this whole conflict, ends military assistance to Ukraine,
35:37ends intelligence sharing with Ukraine, then whatever happens, I don't think Ukraine itself
35:47is a big issue for American voters, a big enough issue for American voters that it will affect the
35:56outcome in the midterms. Where the danger lies is that if Trump goes forward with the kind of sanctions
36:07that Lindsey Graham is proposing, and that creates further complications in the energy market so that
36:16oil prices, if oil prices by the time of the midterms are higher than they are now or higher than they
36:25otherwise would be, putting more pressure on American living standards, then that will not be good for
36:33Trump in the midterms. Again, he's talking about energy cooperation between Russia and the United States.
36:43He clearly recognizes the advantages politically for himself and for the United States in that
36:51the Saudis apparently are lobbying hard in the background for it. All that argues strongly against
36:59its backing Lindsey Graham sanctions. Again, Trump maybe is using Lindsey Graham to put pressure on Putin.
37:10We saw from the Lavrov interview that the Russians are not impressed by that, and they're not letting that
37:19affect their decisions. The risk is that we're going to get those sanctions. If they're passed via legislation
37:29through Congress, they will be all but impossible to rescind. And there'll be, at that point, a structural
37:39imbalance in the energy market. Because Russian oil and gas will go to China, probably to India as well.
37:46The United States will find itself in all kinds of difficulties economically in trying to enforce
37:52these particular sanctions. And I can see how this could play out very, very badly for
38:00the United States, for the American people, but above all for Donald Trump.
38:04Yeah, you're right. I think the conclusion is that the best option for Trump and for the United States
38:10actually is to have Zelensky reject Crimea and then he can walk away from Ukraine while at the same time
38:19doing business with Russia, which would eventually mean to trying to lower energy costs.
38:25Absolutely. I mean, energy costs are probably the thing that affect American motors most,
38:31most, at least in any relation in any issue that relates to this conflict in Ukraine. And again,
38:39Trump ought to have been focused on this. He could have said it, I think he could have gone ahead and
38:47said it absolutely openly. My concern here is not this war, the outcome of this war, the Ukrainians and
38:56the Russians won't agree. That's really their problem. But I was elected to reduce
39:05the cost of living pressure on American voters. And that means that I have to cooperate with the
39:10Russians on energy related questions. Now, you know, that would have been a, that would have been a complete,
39:16that would have been something that people in, you know, Detroit would have understood. It would have
39:22cut through, but for some reason he didn't do it. Yeah. All right. We will end the video there,
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