Navigating a bear market isn’t easy — here’s how to protect your finances.
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00:00We actually are in a bear market depending on your definition.
00:04We use a definition of using two moving averages, the 50 and the 200.
00:08And when the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average
00:13and the actual price is trading below both of those moving averages,
00:18that is the classic bear face.
00:19Charles Dow talked about that back in the 1800s.
00:23So as far as we can see, we're there in the SPY, in the Qs, in the Russells,
00:27and many of the sectors.
00:30So the good news about bear markets is we know they eventually end
00:34because optimism, you know, we're hopeful people, right?
00:38So optimism starts to come back in.
00:40But we haven't seen that yet.
00:42So I would say don't be too tricked by this to think that the bear market is over
00:47until we see actual signs that the indices and sectors can get back
00:52over that 50-day moving average.
00:54And then we can start talking about bear over recuperation here.
00:59And how to navigate it would be, first of all,
01:01it's really great to look at things that are going counter.
01:05So while we have a lot of things in a bear market,
01:07there are certain things that have been outperforming.
01:09We just talked about commodities earlier.
01:11That would be one, particularly gold and silver.
01:14Copper is trying to get in the game now.
01:17A couple of other commodities are looking good.
01:19The grains and the other would be looking at something like emerging markets.
01:24Because if you look at the China market versus the spy market,
01:26that's been basing and breaking out as opposed to the spy,
01:30which has been basically coming down,
01:33having bear market type rallies and then going back down.
01:37So again, if you think there's some kind of a low in place,
01:40if people are looking at April 9th as the low,
01:43that would be 4,800.
01:44One thing you know is if we break down under there,
01:47we're going much lower, but we could also chop for a long, long time
01:52before we see something more substantial in the way of a sustained rally.