Zelensky, UK/EU Leaders Chase Trump in Rome | Starmer’s Coalition Falls Apart | US-Russia Talks Begin

5 days ago

In this fast-moving episode, we break down a whirlwind of global events: 🌍

Zelensky and top UK/EU leaders chase diplomatic momentum as Donald Trump takes the spotlight in Rome 🇺🇸🇮🇹.

Keir Starmer’s fragile coalition in the UK begins to collapse under political pressure 🇬🇧.

Meanwhile, quiet but crucial talks between the U.S. and Russia emerge in Moscow 🇷🇺🤝🇺🇸.

We connect the dots between global diplomacy, power struggles, and the rapidly shifting world order.
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Transcript

00:00:00good day today is saturday 26th april 2025 um the day after my discussion of the two proposals the

00:00:13american proposal and the european proposal which were presented to the western powers

00:00:20and to the ukrainians at the meetings in paris and london over the course of last week

00:00:30and the day after the meeting in the kremlin of donald trump's envoy steve whitgolf with president

00:00:39putin of russia and the putin's aide yuri ushekov and kirill dimitriev the head of russia's investment

00:00:50fund i understand that whitgolf and dimitriev had a separate meeting before the meeting with

00:00:59putin now as consistently happens whenever putin and whitgolf meet the kremlin does not provide a

00:01:07readout they merely confirm that the meeting took place and they also provide us with a photographic

00:01:17study so we have pictures of putin and witgov and of course we've also had television film meeting in

00:01:25the kremlin it all looks very affable um putin is smiling whitgolf is smiling clearly the two men get

00:01:32on um but we're not told the kremlin does not tell us about the substance of the discussions and lavrov

00:01:42in the interview with cbs which i discussed in my program yesterday a meeting which of course took place

00:01:50before the meeting between whitgolf and dmitry uh whitgolf and putin in the kremlin anyway uh lavrov

00:02:00explained why he said that we that is to say the russians are really polite people and unlike some

00:02:08others we never discuss in public what is being discussed in negotiations otherwise negotiations are not

00:02:16serious uh to ask for somebody's opinion regarding the substance of negotiations go to zelensky he is

00:02:27happy to talk to anybody through media even to president trump so that's what lavrov said the russians

00:02:36don't disclose the details of negotiations whilst they're underway they don't provide

00:02:42um a full account of negotiations whilst they're underway now that actually is interesting because what that

00:02:53confirms in case nobody had figured it out already is that the meeting between whitgolf and putin is a

00:03:04negotiation in other words the russians and the americans are negotiating and in a situation which i think is

00:03:15absolutely unique since perhaps the time of the cuban missile crisis in 1962 this negotiation in its entirety

00:03:26is being conducted is being conducted by the two trep presidents trump and putin with each other with whitgolf having

00:03:37the task of shuttling between them um we don't have the classical arrangement of negotiating teams headed by chief

00:03:48negotiator meeting meeting in some neutral capital going over every point step uh point uh discussing things in detail with each other

00:04:01coming to a consensus over time as to the way forward it's nothing like that it's nothing like the paris negotiations that i've

00:04:12discussed many times the paris negotiations which led to the american pull out from vietnam in the early 1970s

00:04:21this is a two-way discussion between putin and trump they've had of course i believe three telephone

00:04:30conversations or maybe two telephone conversations but the medium of their discussion is whitgolf who basically

00:04:42goes from one to the other bringing his ideas and opinions trump no doubt coming up with his ideas

00:04:51bouncing them off putin via whitgolf and putin doing the same with trump it is extremely unconventional

00:05:02very unorthodox it is not how superpower diplomacy is usually conducted the closest to this is what

00:05:11happened during the cuban missile crisis when president kennedy in effect began a direct negotiation with

00:05:21soviet premier nikita khrushchev they did so through uh two intermediaries the president's brother robert

00:05:29kennedy who was of course the u.s attorney general and the soviet ambassador to washington anatoly

00:05:36the brinin those two met and established a back channel but effectively putin khrushchev and kennedy

00:05:47negotiated the entire resolution of the cuban missile crisis directly with each other and it looks as if

00:05:57trump and putin are trying to do the same thing with respect to the ukraine crisis as well and this of

00:06:08course fits very well with donald trump's personality he likes to think of himself as a master negotiator

00:06:18and deal maker and he likes obviously to conduct negotiations and he believes with some cause by the

00:06:26way that he and putin have um a genuine respect for each other and an understanding of each other trump

00:06:36is far from wrong in assuming that so he thinks that he is the best person to conduct the negotiations

00:06:46and that these negotiations really cannot be delegated to other people and as i said he's using whitgoff to

00:06:54as you know the intermediary to conduct the negotiations on his behalf i suspect that there is another factor

00:07:03at play here as well which was touched on in a program we did on on the duran glendison professor

00:07:14me asheimer and myself which should not be overlooked which is that trump doesn't trust the us bureaucracy

00:07:26to conduct the negotiations he has grave doubts about the state department the national security council

00:07:35the staff of the national security council he attempted in the past to conduct negotiations in a more

00:07:44conventional way he probably remembers how um the bureaucracy obstructed him and wrecked negotiations in the

00:07:53past he's attempt to conduct negotiations with the north korean leader kim jong-un for example and he

00:08:01probably also remembers how the bureaucracy simply circumvented and blocked his clear instructions to pull u.s

00:08:12troops out of syria which is what he tried to do during his first term so he doesn't trust

00:08:19the official people within his administration he certainly doesn't trust the state department

00:08:31he doesn't trust the intelligence community either the chief of russian intelligence or at least of the

00:08:40russian foreign intelligence service the svr sergey narishkin has said that um the russians

00:08:49want a one-to-one meeting between narishkin and the head of the cia john radcliffe but clearly again

00:09:02trump does not see that as a satisfactory vehicle with through which to conduct negotiations with the

00:09:10russians and the russians obviously understand this and they've agreed to this and they're conducting

00:09:17negotiations with trump in this way in the absence of any other negotiations formal negotiations being

00:09:27conducted in any other way at all anyway another of this what came out of the meeting between putin

00:09:36and witgov well following on from what lavrov said the russians as i said have not provided us with a

00:09:44readout because this is a negotiation and they've not provided us with many details but we have had a comment

00:09:54from one of the participants in the meeting who was who is putin's aide yuri ushekov he was present with

00:10:05putin when putin when putin met with wikov in the kremlin and this is what ushekov said when he met with

00:10:15reporters directly after the meeting the conversation lasted three hours and was constructive and quite

00:10:25useful the conversation enabled russia and the united states to additionally bring their positions closer

00:10:34not only on ukraine but also a number of other topics

00:10:43well that is quite interesting it tells us that as i said the ideas have been worked around it's absolutely

00:10:51clear that they are working from the american proposal as i discussed in my program yesterday

00:10:58the american proposal unveiled next week and published by reuters is it takes as its starting point

00:11:11the kellogg plan but it is clearly changing the kellogg plan is clearly evolving as a result of the

00:11:22discussions the negotiations that have been taking place with the russians dr jack rasmus who's written

00:11:29a fine article about this whole process which i will touch on later in this program he started to refer

00:11:38to the plan as kellogg plus and i'm going to do so though i ought to say that it might equally accurately

00:11:48be referred to as kellogg minus because some ideas that were there previously in the original kellogg proposal

00:11:58of april 2024 and which were clearly unacceptable to the russians have for the moment at least been

00:12:06withdrawn or deleted but anyway um the americans are slowly adapting their plan following their contacts

00:12:18with the russians and apparently that process continues it looks as if however they discussed other things as well

00:12:27they also clearly discussed the iran negotiations um we're told ushikov has actually confirmed that

00:12:36amongst the topics the other topics they discussed certain international issues came up and almost

00:12:43certainly the major the major one there was the negotiations between the united states and iran

00:12:50where of course witkoff again is the chief negotiator and um it looks as if the americans and the russians

00:13:02witkoff dmitriev and putin have also discussed further potential economic

00:13:10cooperation um cooperation between russia and the united states um once or perhaps i should say if

00:13:20these negotiations come to fruition and there is some kind of a settlement between

00:13:28the americans and the russians and perhaps between the russians and ukraine now the other thing

00:13:34that was mentioned and which was mentioned and which ushikov said uh putin and witkoff talked about

00:13:45was the possibility of direct negotiations between russia and ukraine

00:13:55now this is interesting if we go back to the american proposal let's let's call it for convenience

00:14:03um kellogg plus um we're told about the plan the kellogg plus plan under the provision ceasefire talks

00:14:17about permanent ceasefire both sides immediately engage in technical implementation negotiations

00:14:27negotiations now notice that the words permanent ceasefire proceed the words both sides immediately engage

00:14:40in technical implementation negotiations but there is there the word immediately in other words my sense is

00:14:53that the technical implementation negotiations are intended to proceed the ceasefire and that they're supposed to

00:15:00take place between the ukrainians and the russians now donald trump who's currently in rome has also

00:15:07spoken about the need for the ukrainians and the russians to meet and he speaks about these this meeting having to take place

00:15:17at the highest level and that might imply a summit meeting between zelensky and putin now whether zelensky is

00:15:30prepared to meet with putin at this time that is another question i get the impression that the answer is no

00:15:40but put all that aside there continues to be an obvious problem if the ukrainians and the russians are indeed

00:15:49intended to meet or at least engage in technical implementation uh discussions immediately and that of course

00:16:00that of course remains zelensky's october 2022 decree which prohibits direct negotiations between ukraine

00:16:13and russia um as i understand it that decree prohibits those negotiations until president putin steps down from

00:16:22office ceases to be president of russia which is of course a fantastic idea and one which is not going

00:16:31to happen so um how then do we have these negotiations take place i assume that these are

00:16:44the negotiations between russia and ukraine that um ushikov was talking about and which which whitgov

00:16:56and putin would have discussed and the purpose of those negotiations clearly is to agree how to set up

00:17:05and monitor and arrange a ceasefire ceasefire negotiations by the way can take a very very long time

00:17:13they may take weeks or months and there's no guarantee in any conflict that they will be successful

00:17:20just saying whitgoff presumably would act again as some kind of intermediary notice that the formula

00:17:33used in the american proposal is that both sides engage in technical implementation negotiations

00:17:43which leaves open the possibility that they don't directly meet that we have the same arrangement that

00:17:50we have with the americans and the iranians whereby the two parties are in separate rooms and then there is

00:17:58an intermediary who shuffles between the two bringing proposals from one to the other but anyway how exactly

00:18:07is this discussion going to happen and how is it going to be set up and will the russians agree to it well i think the short answer is that the russians probably would agree to it

00:18:20because they lose nothing by doing so from their point of view and i think this is

00:18:25a critical thing to understand they have not actually accepted kellogg plus they have not said that

00:18:34kellogg plus is the way forward um what they do seem to be saying to the americans is that kellogg plus

00:18:46does provide a useful framework for further discussion however the objective that the russians have

00:18:56is istanbul plus the demands that putin set out when he spoke to the foreign ministry on the 14th of june

00:19:072024 2024 demands which by the way do include the transfer of the entire territory of the four regions to russia

00:19:16there is no statement from any russian official which says that the russians have given up on that objective

00:19:26what the russians have said is that if they can achieve their objective through the negotiation through

00:19:34negotiations rather than through fighting then obviously they have no problem with that so

00:19:45they can come along discuss with the ukrainians how to set up a ceasefire

00:19:51they can say to the ukrainians that the purpose of the ceasefire would be the permanent ceasefire would

00:19:59be as putin said at the foreign ministry meeting in june 2024 to arrange for the eventual withdrawal

00:20:08of ukrainian troops from the remaining territory of the four regions and the russians can also

00:20:16discuss with the ukrainians all the many other things that needs to happen in order for there to be a

00:20:23ceasefire at all such as an agreement by the ukrainians for the proper monitoring and observation of the

00:20:34ceasefire and also um agreements which the russians would probably insist upon that ukraine not receive

00:20:46weapons or intelligence from third parties from the united states or the western powers was the ceasefire

00:20:53was in effect i want to stress i am not saying that the ukrainians are going to agree to any of that

00:20:59i am saying that in a negotiation if a negotiation were to take place the russians would almost certainly

00:21:08make those demands now um the other thing to say about kellogg plus which perhaps i didn't make fully

00:21:20clear yesterday is that it doesn't contradict or make impossible uh the achievement of istanbul plus

00:21:33the objectives that the russians set out at um i've said that putin set out when he spoke to the foreign

00:21:42ministry on the 14th of june for example it has been suggested to me by a number of people

00:21:53that the kellogg plus plan the proposal the proposal um presented by the americans at the meetings in

00:22:10paris and london freezes the conflict along the inter the current contact line

00:22:21that is not what the text of this proposal actually says

00:22:28in fact the words contact line appear nowhere in this document just to say what the

00:22:41the proposal says what the kellogg plus plan says is that whilst the united states will recognize

00:22:53russian control of crimea and lugansk in their entirety the united states will recognize

00:23:02russian control of whatever parts of zaporozhya donetsk and ukraine and herson region russia controls

00:23:15now that may be along the current line of contact if there is a permanent ceasefire in place now

00:23:24but of course if there isn't a permanent ceasefire in place now if the permanent ceasefire

00:23:31is negotiated and agreed as some expect sometime in the summer if we get there then of course the

00:23:40current contact line might be significantly further west as i will discuss later in this program it looks

00:23:49as if the situation around pokrovsk for example is now changing and it is looking increasingly likely

00:23:57that there will be a russian attempt to capture pokrovsk over the next few weeks and months and it could be

00:24:04that by the time the ceasefire is agreed pokrovsk will be under russian control in which case in which case

00:24:15according to this plan the american plan the americans will recognize russian control of pokrovsk

00:24:24so this distinction does need to be made the two proposals istanbul plus the set of proposals putin made

00:24:37in june last year and the kellogg plan are not in direct conflict or contradiction with each other the one

00:24:51the american proposal could eventually bring us to the point where the other istanbul plus might be achieved

00:25:05let me stress again i am not saying necessarily that that will happen but one could see why the russians

00:25:16are taking this proposal as a point of discussion why they're prepared to engage with the americans

00:25:24around it why the negotiations between the russians and the americans are moving forward and why the

00:25:31atmosphere of the talks between the americans and the russians is getting friendlier now all of that

00:25:43now brings us to the other side to the ukrainians and to the europeans because if the russians have not

00:25:49accepted

00:25:53kellogg plus they haven't said right we accept it as it stands we will do all the things immediately that

00:26:02have been suggested here we will return the zaporozha nuclear power plant to ukrainian control

00:26:09on the proviso that the united states manages it we will give the ukrainians the kinburn spit we will

00:26:16stop the fighting on the existing contact line um well the russians have not said that they've said like

00:26:23we are prepared to work along with this on this document using this framework that is not what the ukrainians

00:26:34have done the ukrainians have rejected kellogg plus outright they are saying that as far as they're

00:26:42concerned this entire plan this entire framework to move forward this discussion is completely unacceptable

00:26:56what they want to see is an unconditional ceasefire they want that to happen immediately they're not

00:27:05prepared to um discuss territorial questions they're not prepared to see to have the americans recognize

00:27:15any part of ukrainian territory as being under russian control whether de facto or de jure they

00:27:23want the right to maintain their armed forces at their present level and even greater level to continue to

00:27:30receive weapons from the west they want european peacekeepers to be deployed in ukraine they want

00:27:40the right in fact they insist on the right to join nato and most specifically and importantly they demand

00:27:52now as a condition to enter into any discussions at all a security guarantee from the united states itself

00:28:03something which the united states is not prepared to agree to so as zelensky made very clear in his speech

00:28:15on tuesday as both he and other ukrainian officials have also made clear since then where the russians

00:28:27accept kellogg plus as a basis for future discussion and negotiation the ukrainians reject this framework this

00:28:41entire framework outright so that now brings us to what can what is going to happen from this point on

00:28:53now there are reports um in the us media and washington post that after the collapse of the discussions

00:29:02in london on wednesday the europeans tried to get the ukrainians to accept that some surrender of

00:29:16territory to the russians is now unavoidable that ukraine cannot continue to hold out indefinitely for the

00:29:26return of all of its territory that the russians are not going to agree to a ceasefire unless they have

00:29:34some guarantee as they have repeatedly insisted that that will lead to a certain outcome which is ukraine

00:29:44not joining nato that's conceded in kellogg plus and to

00:29:51control of territory that the russians consider theirs also conceded in kellogg plus with the united states

00:30:05itself recognizing that control the ukrainians are not prepared to accept either of those things they

00:30:14refuse to discuss either of these things nato membership or territory until there is an unconditional

00:30:23ceasefire and of course if there is a ceasefire they will never agree to those things they will

00:30:30continue to insist on um ukraine's right to retain regain all of its territory and they will continue to

00:30:38insist on ukraine's right to join nato so they have made that all very clear the europeans apparently

00:30:45tried to get them to agree to to move on these points but the ukrainians show absolutely no willingness

00:30:54for the moment to do so i say the ukrainians one ukrainian politician vitalik klitschko the mayor of kiev

00:31:02has made some comments he has said that um he does believe that ukraine must be prepared to um seed territory

00:31:17but klitschko who was an important figure in ukrainian politics back in 2013 and 2014 has been eclipsed for

00:31:29some time the economist discussed recently in a recent article how as a result of western support

00:31:40and the actions that he has himself taken um bringing prosecutions against his political opponents

00:31:48locking some of those opponents up driving others into exile that kind of thing there is really no

00:31:54political alternative to zelensky in ukraine at the moment there is no sign that zelensky is prepared to

00:32:04concede on any of this um the washington post says that the europeans may have tried to get zelensky

00:32:16to accept these realities but he is resisting and he won't even agree a ceasefire unless there are

00:32:28guarantees and not just guarantees from the europeans but guarantees from the united states itself as the

00:32:37proposal that the ukrainians and the europeans put forward makes absolutely clear so we are it seems to me

00:32:48now at the point where the irresistible force donald trump meets the immovable obstacle because donald trump

00:33:01has come to understand that the russians won't stop their advance westwards they won't agree to a ceasefire

00:33:12until the what they call the root causes are addressed trump has moved a significant way in that direction

00:33:24he's conceded that nato membership will not be granted to ukraine that ukraine will not

00:33:31have membership of nato he's conceded that ukraine will never recover crimea he concedes that ukraine

00:33:40cannot recover territory that russia controls in eastern ukraine but zelensky

00:33:51refuses to do any of these things and for the moment at least he plays he continues to play games

00:34:03with his october 2022 decree sometimes he makes out that this decree

00:34:10really is of no significance that ukraine can enter into negotiations that he's prepared to negotiate with

00:34:17the russians once the russians once a ceasefire is in place sometimes he says that he himself

00:34:24is not bound by the decree so he can conduct direct negotiations with the russians but no one else can

00:34:33what he never agrees to do is rescind the decree and the russians obviously

00:34:44call into question his readiness to conduct negotiations whilst he refuses to rescind the decree

00:34:55and they also point out and they are continuing to point out that since there is a question mark over

00:35:04of zelensky's own legitimacy he um his term expired in may last year he's been continuing as president of

00:35:18ukraine by um issuing by renewing martial law and claiming that the renewal of martial law um

00:35:30um enables him to be president of ukraine without elections beyond the expiry of his term the russians

00:35:41disagree with that as i said i'm not going to get into a discussion about whether the right the russians

00:35:47are right or wrong about this but the russians repeatedly say that um this contradicts the terms of

00:35:55ukraine's ukraine's own constitution that zelensky clinging on to power in this way um casts a major

00:36:04question over his legitimacy and they say that absolutely they are prepared to meet with zelensky

00:36:13they are prepared to speak and discuss things with him but they have serious doubts about whether any

00:36:22document that zelensky signs has legal authority in ukraine simply because of the uncertainties

00:36:35about zelensky's own position now i'm not going to get into all of this discussion but what i will

00:36:41simply say is this again that zelensky himself doesn't seem to be keen on direct negotiations with

00:36:50the russians and the russians though they are prepared to enter into negotiations with the

00:36:57ukrainians i should make the point by the way that since the start of the special military operation

00:37:04the russians have never at any time said that they would not prepared be prepared to enter into

00:37:12negotiations with the americans with the ukrainians but the russians do have serious doubts about the

00:37:21sense and purpose of negotiating with zelensky himself and there are of course time moments when zelensky

00:37:32he himself insists that he is the only person authorized or entitled to enter negotiations so what happens

00:37:45as i said the ukrainians have rejected this entire framework outright the russians have said that they're

00:37:53prepared to work with it the russians have said they've always said they're prepared to sit down

00:38:01and negotiate with the ukrainians the ukrainians play an incredibly complicated dance on this sometimes

00:38:11they say they will negotiate other times they say they won't negotiate they insist on a ceasefire before

00:38:17negotiations um something that the russians don't seem and in fact clearly are not prepared to agree to

00:38:29they make it very unclear whether negotiations even then would be authorized they want a security guarantee

00:38:37before they have a ceasefire it is all very complicated and very unclear and very unclear what the

00:38:46outcome of all of this is going to be in terms of even agreeing a ceasefire and the ukrainians have already

00:38:55rejected the things that the americans have already said about russian control of crimea and the four regions

00:39:03and about nato the ukrainians have already rejected it outright so what exactly happens now the ukrainians

00:39:14continue to be backed by the europeans the europeans supposedly are trying to get the americans to modify

00:39:26the proposal kellogg plus that whitgolf took with him when he met putin well at the moment even as i'm

00:39:40speaking we have an unedifying spectacle of various european leaders chasing trump while he is in rome um to uh

00:39:52participate in the um a funeral of the late pope pope francis the first i i i say unedifying it is true

00:40:06that world leaders do often meet at funerals of famous states people great states people it is also true

00:40:18that discussions and negotiations often take place um during these funerals um after all when world leaders

00:40:27come together come together come together and meet inevitably they talk to each other and inevitably

00:40:35when they talk to each other those conversations will always have about them something of the quality of

00:40:41negotiations but i've never seen it done quite in the way that is being done here trump is coming to rome

00:40:53for 15 hours he's going to be 15 hours in rome apparently only 15 hours and yet we get zelensky hurrying

00:41:02to rome begging to meet trump um unclear what they can talk about and discuss in the short time that they

00:41:12will have to speak to each other the media is saying that there are others other um leaders who want to um

00:41:22talk to trump as well starmer for example no doubt macron they've had all kinds of people they all want

00:41:31apparently to meet with trump so one almost gets the sense of all kinds of people shuffling around trying to

00:41:37catch up with trump as he does whatever it is he's doing um apparently there's talk of

00:41:47gate crashing the u.s ambassador's residence where trump will be staying and trying to meet with him

00:41:55there to discuss what exactly i mean what exactly is this intended to do um are they going to try to get

00:42:05trump to walk back on the proposal his envoy wikov has just taken to moscow and presented to putin

00:42:19or is there something else is there some attempt to go beyond that proposal in some way to get

00:42:27a renewed commitment of american military aid or something of that kind whatever it is how realistically

00:42:36is that going to be achieved over the course of the 20 30 minutes presumably that trump could afford

00:42:49to give to give to these leaders as they apparently seek meetings with him there's the added complication

00:43:01that if we're talking about zelensky trump now makes little secret that he doesn't like him anyway

00:43:11and zelensky incidentally quite obviously doesn't like trump and what is starmer and macron going to do

00:43:25if they meet trump in starmer's case he's not just talking about ukraine he's trying to negotiate with

00:43:33trump some kind of tariff deal is he going to talk about that also with trump when they meet

00:43:39i mean are they going to vote 5 10 15 20 30 minutes to that discussion it's an enormously complicated

00:43:47one or are they going to talk about ukraine and if so what exactly are they going to talk about

00:43:54are they going to talk about european peacekeepers all over again is starmer going to revisit the entire

00:44:00topic topic that he brought up during his visit to washington back in february the idea of an american

00:44:10backstop or security guarantee for the us for the european forces that um there's been some talk about

00:44:19sending to ukraine the whole thing as i said looks frankly cheap and ugly and generally desperate

00:44:30that there is a sense that the russians and the americans are talking with each other

00:44:39that with every meeting the divergence the gap between the american

00:44:47position and that of the ukrainians and their european friends grows and that they're scuttling around

00:44:55the europeans and the ukrainians are scuttling after trump trying in some way to pull him back well

00:45:03there has been an article in the london times which says that trump has no intention of being pulled back

00:45:14trump plan to let russia keep ukraine land set in stone and that appears to be

00:45:22a um quote and we are told that president trump's plan to let russia keep occupied territory in ukraine

00:45:32is set in stone the trial times has been told as pressure builds on president zelensky to accept a

00:45:39forced peace a forced peace trump may meet zelensky at rome on saturday on the margins of pope

00:45:46francis's funeral but he believes that the ukrainian leader and then we have a quote are we interested

00:45:54to know a quote from whom by the way because the time the times doesn't say that the ukrainian leader

00:46:00really has no choice but to sign up to the proposal according to a source close to steve whitkoff

00:46:12could it be whitkoff himself just just asking the u.s president's special envoy trump is threatening to

00:46:20pull out of the peace process next week unless a deal is done and that's another warning that apparently

00:46:36in private discussions trump is saying that unless zelensky comes round the united states will pull out

00:46:44of the entire deal next week perhaps i'm guessing now but perhaps on the 30th of april now trump has

00:46:56also been making some statements he has said that he has no deadline uh no actual deadline

00:47:03but that he does want everything to be sorted out quickly and i think that was some degree of

00:47:11misunderstanding of what trump was saying here because trump's language is often rather rather vague

00:47:20but i think what he meant was that if negotiations between the russians and the ukrainians get underway

00:47:28if there is process towards a ceasefire if there is serious process towards a ceasefire

00:47:35um and trump went out of his way to say also that things are going smoothly that the plan is mostly agreed

00:47:45and all of that um if that happens then he's not going to impose any uh deadlines because he'll be satisfied

00:47:56that the parties are moving in the right direction but if the ukrainians if zelensky

00:48:05maintain their current position if they refuse to work within the framework of

00:48:15whitgolf's kellogg plus proposal which means effectively

00:48:24well working within a framework that says that ukraine won't be able to join nato and um won't

00:48:32um be able to recover its territories and will have to negotiate directly with the russians without

00:48:44apparently the united states or the europeans participating in those discussions one-to-one

00:48:51in other words well in that case if that does happen then the the um trump obviously is not going to pull the plug

00:49:02on those discussions he's not going to set any artificial timetables he's going to let let that play out

00:49:09and take its course so it what trump appears to be insisting on is that zelensky make a definite

00:49:20commitment this week to accept kellogg plus the framework proposal that zelensky rejected

00:49:32on tuesday now is that actually going to happen is it really the case that um

00:49:42zelensky believes that

00:49:46he has no choice understands that he has no choice

00:49:55we go on to read in

00:49:57the um times article that the united states believes that if ukraine rejects the deal the war

00:50:05would go on for months and possibly years with kiev reliant on europe for funding and munitions

00:50:12this is also from the same source

00:50:16whitgolf friend of whitgolf's who knows the united states this is a direct quote the u.s funding cut off

00:50:24actually is going to have as much of an impact as the weapons cut off this year because ukraine

00:50:31uses that money to buy more weapons from other allies the source added

00:50:37asked if this was a take it or leave it moment for zelensky the source said the united states saw

00:50:44it as take it or take it the americans believe european public opinion will turn

00:50:52against the huge expenditure required to keep ukraine in the wall as the continent heads towards

00:51:00recession and that's almost certainly true so the point being made here

00:51:09is that the americans uh feel that if zelensky rejects this proposal he's dooming ukraine

00:51:19through a prologue a prolonged war in which he's going to be completely dependent on the europeans

00:51:28and the ability of the europeans to sustain that support is going to waver because the european public

00:51:37ultimately will turn against european leaders who support continued financial and military aid for

00:51:48ukraine as conditions within the european economy deteriorate i'm going to say straight away that i think

00:51:59that the reality is that if the united states pulls its aid from ukraine stops providing military and

00:52:07financial aid to ukraine then we're not looking at years of war ahead of us

00:52:17uh possibly months of war maybe as much as a further year of war if the europeans pull out all the plugs

00:52:29which is far from certain but it's more likely that we're going to see a military collapse

00:52:36much sooner than that and an economic collapse as well so in some respects

00:52:44one can understand why the americans think what they do they're saying to themselves without us

00:52:51how can ukraine survive it will go on fighting for a while but sooner or later

00:52:58it's going to find itself facing the russians by itself at which point it won't survive and so the

00:53:07americans appear to be confident that zelensky will break this week and come around to seeing things

00:53:16from their point of view and will sign up to the american proposal in which case going back to the

00:53:23meeting between whitgoth and putin presumably some kind of meeting will be arranged between russian and

00:53:30ukrainian delegations to discuss how to move forward with the peace a peace which the russians

00:53:42as far as the russians are concerned must have as its eventual outcome istanbul plus the

00:53:50proposals the terms outlined by putin at he speech to the russian foreign ministry um in june of last year

00:54:04i'm not at all confident that zelensky is going to do what the americans expect him to do

00:54:11he continues to get support from the europeans um some europeans are already saying again that a bad peace

00:54:22is worse than a continuation of the war um which suggests to me that there is no unanimity

00:54:33of pressure on zelensky to come round and i don't think zelensky anyway is particularly

00:54:40receptive to this kind of pressure it's important to say that there have been many attempts over the

00:54:47course of this year to get zelensky to make substantive concessions in order to get the peace process moving

00:55:01but he has never done so he has never compromised on anything actually even the agreement

00:55:13for an unconditional ceasefire that was set out that was purportedly agreed by the ukrainian delegation

00:55:22um in jeddah back in march was only agreed by the ukrainians without him when he was not there

00:55:37and if we go to the european ukrainian proposal we could see that ultimately

00:55:45this has been walked back because we're told that during the ceasefire

00:55:56there will be security guarantees for ukraine and these include security guarantees from the united states

00:56:05which will be of an article 5 nature whilst even whilst there is no consensus amongst the allies on

00:56:17nato membership so i i don't get the sense that zelensky is ever someone who's in the moods to compromise

00:56:28and i suspect also that he doesn't believe in the reality of the american position like other leaders

00:56:38before him president hugh in vietnam president al ghani in afghanistan he probably believes that the american

00:56:46investment in ukraine has been so great that if a final crisis ever develops

00:56:56a situation where it looks as if ukraine is going to collapse and be defeated the united states will not be

00:57:06able to stand aside and will be obliged to come to the rescue so i am not convinced that zelensky

00:57:18is in fact going to come round in the way that the americans expect that he will

00:57:24if he does then it will be a very interesting situation because he might buy himself some more weeks

00:57:33but i doubt that he will actually take really substantive steps to move forward to a ceasefire

00:57:43um at least not one that the russians are prepared to work with and the whole thing could spin on

00:57:52and it could be months before we even get a ceasefire before the terms of the ceasefire are agreed

00:57:59if we even get to that point at all and that brings me back to my underlying position which is that

00:58:11despite this despite the progress that was that has apparently been made with this whole process despite the

00:58:21fact that trump has put more realistic proposals to the russians than i had expected that he would do

00:58:33despite the fact that the russians are more receptive to those proposals as a result of that

00:58:41i still feel ultimately that it was a mistake for the united states for donald trump personally

00:58:47to get involved in all of this at all because progress depends on the unstable personality

00:58:58i'm being kind now of vladimir zelensky um and who would really count on that

00:59:09certainly not me i would have thought that zelensky would be a reason enough personality the personality

00:59:19of zelensky is reason enough to keep away from this whole mess and the fact that the europeans so

00:59:28strongly support zelensky is another reason to keep away from this whole mess altogether

00:59:39but anyway this is the line that donald trump has taken now if as he's more likely or as i think is more

00:59:50likely zelensky resists all the pressure and says no and continues to reject publicly the proposal that has been

01:00:01put in front of him if he wheels and deals and says yes you'll speak to the russians

01:00:09not on the basis of this plan and he still wants an unconditional ceasefire and all of that and that

01:00:15he wants to move everything back to his proposal which is the european proposal not the american proposal

01:00:23then i think trump should move forward and do that which he has apparently threatened to do

01:00:33which is to call the whole thing off and um walk away maybe on the 30th of april and leave ukraine

01:00:45and the europeans to sort it out for themselves whether he will do that remains to be seen when

01:00:54somebody has invested a lot of time and energy in a project and trump has obviously invested a great

01:01:02deal of time and energy in trying to get this agreement to end the war um together um the temptation to

01:01:12keep on doing it to try to find ways around every obstacle can be extremely strong but i think on this

01:01:21occasion trump as a businessman should understand the sunk cost fallacy and should realize that really

01:01:29there isn't any way towards peace that zelensky as his son donald trump junior has pointed out

01:01:40clearly isn't someone who is interested in peace or at least not any peace on any realizable or achievable

01:01:50terms nor are his european friends either by the way and he should say to himself

01:01:59at the end of this week well enough's enough it's time for the united states to cut its losses and to bail

01:02:07out i hope he does i'm not sure he will we'll just have to wait and see now what all of this maneuvering

01:02:18has done over the last couple of days is that it has apparently killed at least in the moment

01:02:29uh starmers and macron's coalition of the willing there is never much enthusiasm for it the only

01:02:37military units that were committed to the reassurance force that was going to be sent to ukraine

01:02:47would apparently have come from britain france denmark and the baltic states we're talking about a force

01:02:54that numbers perhaps eight thousand men in total just saying and um that obviously would not have made

01:03:08a particular difference any particular impression given the scale of this conflict and i get the sense

01:03:16that the british military was overwhelmingly hostile to the whole idea i've noticed that in parliament

01:03:25the british conservative party which is the official opposition seems to be moving in the direction

01:03:34of opposing this idea also and i suspect that the other opposition parties at least reform uk will

01:03:43probably oppose this idea too so we've been told there's been another article in the london times

01:03:50saying that the whole idea of sending troops to ukraine has now been dropped um the british are blaming the

01:04:00french they're saying that this whole idea was really macron's and the french's idea all along

01:04:07the british were never that keen on it or keen with it that by the way is nonsense i mean starmer has clearly

01:04:18been advocating for this plan and lobbying for it heavens knows he went to washington and lobbied for it

01:04:27with donald trump himself um pleading with trump to give this reassurance force a security guarantee

01:04:36for starmer to cut turn around now and to say that he was always skeptical about the whole project

01:04:42and that it wasn't even his plan is ridiculous it is nonsense it is another example of starmer reversing

01:04:51himself and pretending that he was always against the very thing that he once supported just saying but

01:05:01anyway for the moment at least the british are saying this isn't going to work we're out it's all the

01:05:10fault of the french it was the french who came up with this um that's by the way a standard trope in

01:05:17britain blame the french whenever anything goes wrong um i'm not going to get into the details that's a

01:05:25name but anyway um it's all the fault of the french we should never gone with this at all let's forget

01:05:32about sending troops to ukraine military contingents let's instead send trainers to ukraine but let's

01:05:40nonetheless go ahead and have a no-fly zone over western ukraine as well now trainers have been sent to

01:05:50ukraine in abundance many of them of course are not trainers they do other things whilst they are in

01:05:57ukraine i um we did a program on the durand some weeks ago alex christopher and i and our guest and i

01:06:06forget which guest it was um said that right at the beginning um in february 2022 when the russians um

01:06:18sought to seize gostomel airport near kiev which by the way ought to be said they did eventually

01:06:25seize but when they were attending to seize gostomel airport in the first couple of days of the russian

01:06:33advance into ukraine they came up against a british sas troops there was exchanges of fire between them

01:06:41and the russians i don't know the details of this and i'm not going to speculate about it but anyway the

01:06:46point is many of these so-called trainers actually have a much more active role than simply trainers

01:06:55doing training but anyway more of the same we're going to send all of these trainers to ukraine

01:07:02the training they do has not made any difference to the quality of the ukrainian forces over the course

01:07:08of the conflict the ukrainians in fact routinely grumble about the inadequacy of the fall of the

01:07:14training that they are given and as with the idea of a no-fly zone patrolled by the british and french

01:07:24air forces over western ukraine the russians have again categorically wolfed that out it isn't going

01:07:34to happen the point about the collapse of this coalition of the willing is that virtually everybody

01:07:43now in europe can see clearly that the americans are one way or the other bailing out um the americans

01:07:54are not going to provide security guarantees they're not going to put troops on the ground they're not

01:08:00going to provide the kind of support that many people in europe were hoping for

01:08:08and in light of that they're not prepared the europeans are not prepared to put their forces

01:08:18at risk by committing themselves in that kind of way and it goes beyond that because

01:08:27despite this show of european unity that we've seen over the last couple of days the reality is that

01:08:34european unity is disintegrating for some time now italy has been quietly adjusting its positions and

01:08:44changing sides georgia maloney when she first became prime minister of italy was an outspoken supporter

01:08:52of ukraine a strong critic of russia somebody who sent military equipment to ukraine she is

01:09:01in the face of the realities began to shift her position and italy's position so italy apparently no

01:09:09longer sends military equipment to ukraine in any quantity italy has spoken against the idea of deploying

01:09:20a reassurance force in ukraine maloney has made it absolutely clear that if such a force is ever created

01:09:28and deployed and deployed in ukraine italy will not be part of it maloney has had a very friendly meeting

01:09:37with um trump i believe in mara lago she's clearly signaling that she's on trump's side in this quarrel

01:09:48and i notice that in all of the criticism that there has been of the american proposal that was

01:10:03published this week criticism that you find across the european media and from european governments

01:10:12italy has been silent it has not joined in that criticism and of course if italy's shifting position

01:10:22and italy is an important power it is the third biggest economy in europe and by the way after

01:10:29germany it has europe's second biggest industrial base if italy is shifting position then you can be

01:10:37certain that other countries are shifting as well um obviously orban and fitzo have made their position

01:10:47absolutely crystal clear they do not support the european side they're absolutely on side with trump

01:10:57and what he's trying to do they want an end to the war as quickly as possible and they accept that that

01:11:05will have to be at least in part on russian terms and what rob what fitzo and orban think which i suspect

01:11:16now is not that different from what maloney herself thinks i suspect is going to be thought quietly by

01:11:24various others lavrov in a very interesting comment says that russia has been receiving whispers

01:11:34from france that france that france now wants to re-engage with russia in some way now this is all very confusing because

01:11:44macron remains incredibly rude and aggressive in his public comments about russia he doesn't seem to have any

01:11:54any ability to change course but i wonder whether these whispers that lavrov is talking about come from some people

01:12:06other than macron just saying anyway um if there is an american decision to pull out

01:12:19and if the united states then moves forward and starts ending its own sanctions

01:12:32then at some point the europeans will follow suit because too many countries in europe will break ranks

01:12:41and will insist that that happens so anyway there we are this is the situation at the moment um

01:12:53the europeans zelensky chasing trump around rome trying to meet with him

01:13:04i mean if it wasn't also tragic it would actually be funny it's it's the kind of situation where i feel

01:13:13that my colleague and friend alex christopher's comedic qualities really come into their own i mean the

01:13:23the whole business of running after trump in order to meet with him to discuss what exactly seems so weird

01:13:31at least to me and so as i said ugly and by the way disrespectful to the late pope whose funeral they're

01:13:40all supposed to be um attending but anyway there we are um but anyway we'll see what happens this week is

01:13:48going to be crucial trump has also spoke spoken by the way about how everything is despite all the progress

01:13:54that is being made he acknowledges that it is fragile which it obviously is an awful lot now depends

01:14:06on zelensky um somebody who is unpredictable to say the least um somebody who absolutely cannot be counted

01:14:17upon to make any kind of decision but whose sincerity in seeking peace i can't believe anybody who knows

01:14:29this conflict well uh takes seriously by now so anyway we will see what zelensky does um my own

01:14:37sense is that he will remain as intransigent intransigent and as outspoken and as impossible

01:14:50as always and then it will be up to trump at the end of this week maybe on the 30th of april maybe on the

01:15:00first of may to make the final decision does the united states go on waste more time trying to

01:15:08negotiate and find a way forward get itself tied up even further into more and more knots which need to

01:15:18be untangled or does it finally walk away and make up in some way with russia

01:15:26well that's up to donald trump and we shall see anyway the war in the meantime goes on and um i'm not

01:15:35again going to go into a detailed account of the war at this point what i would say

01:15:43is that there have been some important developments over the last couple of hours the russians have now

01:15:50created another group of forces in the north this is group of forces kursk which is clearly separate

01:15:58from group of forces north so group of forces north has been divided and there's a new group of forces

01:16:04which has been hived off group of forces north that suggests that these two groups of forces are going to

01:16:13be reinforced and that um one group of forces north will probably now focus on kharkov on linking up with

01:16:28russian forces west of the osko river now that the battle for volchansk is essentially over

01:16:36whereas the other group of forces kursk um which apparently has driven the ukrainians out of god now

01:16:46the village of god now there are apparently one or two buildings that the ukrainians still control

01:16:51but group of forces kursk presumably is going to focus now on sumi region and perhaps chernigov chernigov region

01:17:03as well an area a region which to repeat again is not that many kilometers up by main road from the capital

01:17:16of ukraine kiev itself if the regional capital sumi is captured by the russians were captured by the russians

01:17:27then there is a main road that leads directly from sumi to kiev which is i believe just 70 kilometers away

01:17:37just saying anyway um that's uh that's in the north um there's considerable reports

01:17:49of very heavy fighting in the area on the southern part of the jerebets osko rivers um there's now heavy

01:17:59fighting to control the village of um um west of siversk um it seems that the russians mostly captured that village

01:18:13before easter but the ukrainians this is what i've heard used the easter ceasefire to recapture

01:18:21it so the russians have had to start there all over again but it does seem as if they're in the process

01:18:28of doing so but perhaps more importantly it looks as if the russians are in the process of capturing

01:18:37certain key villages north of the town of liman and it's assumed that if the russians do capture these

01:18:48places then the russians will be making launching an attack on liman to the south and it's been pointed

01:18:59out that this is the same route that was followed first by the russians in may 2022 and then by the

01:19:10ukrainians in october 2022 when they each captured liman earlier in the war so it looks as if a battle for

01:19:23liman is about to start um perhaps the most dramatic news relates to pakrovsk where the russians um

01:19:36apparently are continuing their advance to the north east of pakrovsk um ultimately maybe to the

01:19:45to novel economic yeah as i said they seem to be in the process of capturing the village of

01:19:52mirolyubivka but perhaps some even more dramatic development is that having apparently now fully

01:20:00consolidated control of kotlino um the russians west of pakrovsk are now advancing northwest towards a

01:20:17village called sergeyevka now sergeyevka is located just south of the e-50 road which is one of the

01:20:29remaining supply roads the two remaining supply roads that the ukrainians use to keep their garrison

01:20:36in pakrovsk um supplied the southern road has already been cut by the russians the northern road

01:20:47this is the northern road if sergeyevka is captured presumably this other road would become unusable

01:20:54if the russians capture nova economic and they also capture sergeyevka west of pakrovsk then it looks

01:21:03to me as if the russians will have in effect cut the major supply roads to pakrovsk um they might not be

01:21:12in physical control of the roads themselves but they will certainly be able to establish drone control

01:21:22over the roads and in that case um supply situation for the pakrovsk garrison will become catastrophic

01:21:32and i suspect that in that case pakrovsk will fall and fall quite quickly there would be other roads

01:21:45which the ukrainians could use but they are again small country roads not all of them paved and given

01:21:54that apparently this is mostly open country there are few tree lines a few villages as well in this area

01:22:02we are moving away from the heavily built up areas of don of donbass um there's little cover if these

01:22:10smaller roads are used um little cover and protection from the russian drones we could see a collapse

01:22:20in pakrovsk not very different from the collapse we saw um in the autumn in selidovo and before before

01:22:31then in ugledar just saying so anyway that's the situation of the battlefronts of course if the american

01:22:38aid completely ends then the situation which is already bad is going to become catastrophic but

01:22:48for the moment at least the war goes on there are other reports of other russian advances the russians

01:22:55are saying that ukrainian defenses in southwest donbass around an important town called bogatyr has

01:23:04collapsed that the ukrainians are retreating from those positions and maybe from the town itself but

01:23:11all of this is something i'll return to in other programs now um in the meantime as all of this has been

01:23:22going on with respect to ukraine um there is a major flare-up a confrontation developing between india and pakistan

01:23:36exchanges of fire a major crisis it is not clear to me yet where this is going precisely tension between

01:23:48pakistan and india never goes away for any particular length of time it always resumes at some point in

01:24:00some form it's a very dangerous situation given that these are both nuclear powers and at the same time

01:24:10a final reconciliation and rapprochement between these two countries looks all but impossible

01:24:22i am not up to speed with all the details of this latest crisis i'll be reviewing it more thoroughly

01:24:31over the next couple of days and i will return to it no doubt later and um we will no doubt be doing a

01:24:39program about it specifically on the duran itself meanwhile um there is considerable uncertainty about

01:24:48what exactly is going on over the tariff question president trump has given the impression that he's had

01:24:55some discussions with president xi jinping of china the chinese deny this president trump has given the

01:25:03impression that there are negotiations underway between china and the united states on the tariff question

01:25:10the chinese deny that too there was a report that appeared yesterday that a chinese trade delegation has

01:25:20been seen entering the treasury department i am not sure about this report i've seen some of the pictures

01:25:28i'm not sure that this means quite what people say it means but i do expect at some point over the next

01:25:37few weeks a de-escalation of the crisis the tariff crisis between china and the united states to take place

01:25:44with substantive trade negotiations probably following i would quickly say that up to now

01:25:54the plan if it was a plan to isolate china um appears to be failing i have not yet heard of a single country

01:26:09which is a trading partner of china's that has agreed to reduce or sever trade relations with china

01:26:19because the united states wants it to so anyway there we are that this is where i'm going to end the

01:26:27program today as i said an absurd situation playing out in ron as i said zelensky running after trump

01:26:39the europeans running after zelensky and trump everybody trying to speak to trump nobody apparently

01:26:46as far as i can see having any clear idea what exactly it is they want to say trump neither refusing

01:26:53so far nor agreeing a meeting and all of them pretending to be there to mourn the pope as i said i find it

01:27:02really weird but anyway there it is and in the meantime the russians continuing to advance and

01:27:10probably sensing that the americans are slowly gradually ever so gradually shifting in their

01:27:18direction well this is where i end my program today more from me soon until then have a very good day let me

01:27:25remind you you can find all our programs on our various platforms locals rumble and x you can support

01:27:31our work via patreon and subscribe star and by going to our shop links under this video don't forget also

01:27:38to tick the like button and to check your subscription to this channel if you've liked this video that's me

01:27:44me for today more from me soon have a very good day

01:28:00you

Zelensky, UK/EU Leaders Chase Trump in Rome | Starmer’s Coalition Falls Apart | US-Russia Talks Begin | Forbidden News

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