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00:00We'll head on out and let's take a look at the field for the Rock Salana Stakes.
00:04This one is going to go as race number nine.
00:06$200,000 up for grabs in here.
00:08Six furlongs on the dirt.
00:10And Alexa, we'll start with the number one, Non-Violence, who was a stakes winner last time out.
00:15But that was at a track that's a little bit lower level than Churchill Downs.
00:19It was over at Evangeline.
00:20They run in Louisiana.
00:21But still a good effort and a horse who probably expect to be flashing some speed from the inside.
00:27You can see the style has listed as a tracker.
00:29So not necessarily a horse on the lead like the two, Sandy Bottom, but still a horse who shouldn't be too far out of it.
00:36What do you think about the one?
00:37I think the one could be a really strong contender in here.
00:40I mean, she's only ran at Churchill one time and one going away.
00:44And like you said, won that stakes race by eight lengths, even though it was at maybe easier competition.
00:51But yeah, I think Non-Violence could be a player.
00:53When you look back at the middle part of 2023, actually almost two years ago about this time right now, she has a nice win at Churchill Downs in a race going six and a half furlongs, a race where she drew the rail.
01:06That looks a lot on paper like the race she's going to be in that stakes race on Saturday night.
01:12So Non-Violence, you can see they have selected as the second pick with the Timeform U.S. pace projector and the Timeform U.S. finishing positions.
01:21We're looking at that projector right here.
01:23What do we do with the number two, Sandy Bottom?
01:25She kind of looks like the fastest horse in the field on paper, Alexa.
01:29Yeah, she does.
01:29She showed some brilliant speed winning her first three starts, including a stakes.
01:34Then, though, they stepped her up to grade one company in La Brea in December, and she led the field but faded.
01:41But, you know, she's fresh.
01:43She's working well after a two-month break.
01:45So I think major, major speed thread in here.
01:49But I kind of want to comment on what you were saying about non-violence, how she's won at Churchill before.
01:55So it really is important for a horse to have experience over a track.
01:59And Churchill is a track with one of the longest stretch runs.
02:03It's huge.
02:04It's huge.
02:05And it's where a lot of times you see those horses who get out to the lead, and they just cannot sustain that run over that super, super long stretch.
02:14So I think that could be a risk for Sandy Bottom in here.
02:18And like a baseball field, right?
02:20Every dimension is different.
02:21Like baseball fields have similar type dimensions, but what happens at Yankee Stadium is way different than at Dodger Stadium just because of the size of it.
02:31It's similar with tracks.
02:32All the tracks are basically the same type of layout circumference, right?
02:35They're going the same distance.
02:36But because some of them have such huge stretch runs or small stretch runs that are more narrow, it really plays to certain types of horses.
02:45It'll be interesting to see a horse like Sandy Bottom out there on the front end.
02:48The three-lady, Moscato, just won for the last 10, Alexa, but was a stakes winner at Oak Lawn Park in January.
02:55She hasn't really run all that well in her races at Churchill, though, kind of what you were pointing out.
03:00Yeah, exactly.
03:010 for 5, I think, at Churchill.
03:03You know, she's a really consistent horse, though.
03:06She does well.
03:07Not always finding the winner's circle, but they have really high hopes for her.
03:11They spent $800,000 on this horse, and she just hasn't really lived up to those expectations.
03:17I think this is probably going to be a tough spot for her.
03:20Moving on to the number four, Tripolina.
03:23She's going to cut back to a shorter sprint distance.
03:26She's kind of interesting to me as, like, an underneath horse, Alexa, because you can tell.
03:32I think she fits with this group at the level.
03:35Just, I'm not sure with her running style, she's been going, like, short and then long and then back and then forth.
03:40They haven't really stuck to one kind of particular style of races for her, and I think that's been a little bit tough on her.
03:48But I could see her being a horse that's passing some of these late.
03:51What do we do with the four?
03:52I don't know.
03:53You know, like you said, they've tried a lot of different things, and her best performance on the dirt was her first attempt back in December.
03:58She came from off the pace and got second, and since then, she's just really struggled to have an impact, and I don't think there's been a whole lot of excuse for her.
04:07And she also needs some pace to close into, and I don't think she's going to get a whole lot of pace here.
04:13So I'm passing on Tripolina.
04:15I like the five because, you know me, I like to be styling, and Muccia here is a horse who comes in, and she's actually getting some class relief.
04:23Even though this is a stakes race, and she was in a stakes race last time out, you look at a few of the races where she just was kind of overmatched.
04:30She faced nice horses.
04:32One of them is named Nick Style, who is seven for eight, and after beating Muccia, went on and won another graded stakes race.
04:38She lost to a horse named Emery, who is a multiple grade one placed filly.
04:43She lost to a horse named Holland Ice, who's been in really good form for Safi Joseph Jr.
04:47I just think this is a great spot for her, Alexa.
04:50I like Muccia.
04:51I put her in my third selection in here.
04:55Like you said, she's done really well in some really tough races.
04:58She was really well beaten in her last start in the Minaret stakes in February, so I think she needs to kind of recapture that best form.
05:06But if she does, her figures absolutely fit here, and she has one coming off of a layoff before.
05:11So I think you could put her in as a value play in here, because her morning line odds are eight to one or plus 800.
05:18Yeah, and remember, in racing, those odds will change a little bit all the way up to post time.
05:23For me, if she was like five to one, like plus 500, anything there or above, I think that's great value on her.
05:30Anything in that range would be fine for me.
05:33Harbor Springs has won two in a row, and what was impressive about Harbor Springs' last race, Alexa,
05:39she showed that she has a little more early speed than she's been able to show in recent races.
05:44A lot of times, that is a sign that a horse is improving and maturing and growing up.
05:49I could see her fitting really well with this group, because she kind of has some versatility to her now.
05:54She could show different running styles.
05:56Yeah, I sure hope so, because this is my top selection in here.
05:59You know, she's coming off a really strong win at Fairgrounds in February at today's distance.
06:03Won an allowance race here in November with a really strong speed figure.
06:07She has excellent recent workouts, including a bullet work, which a bullet work just means
06:12of all the horses that worked out that morning, hers was the fastest time.
06:16She's got the top jockey up.
06:18I think she just looks really primed and, you know, not super long odds, three to one or plus 300 morning line,
06:24but I think still decent price on her.
06:27A lot of positives coming in for Harbor Springs.
06:29Girls Weekend, I know you've been on a couple of those, Alexa.
06:32This one will step up a little bit, though, because what I'm not sure about with her,
06:37her two wins are on a track that was a sloppy track and then on a track that was supposed to be a turf race that was taken off.
06:45So I don't know if she kind of just took advantage in those fields.
06:49Yeah, I don't love Girls Weekend, but I think the best, like, approach for her is the pace scenario.
06:56Like, she's going to want to be a part of the early pace, and there's not going to be a whole lot of early speed competition.
07:02So, I mean, if she can get really comfortable out on the lead, then that would be a reason to play her.
07:07I think maybe underneath, but I don't think she's going to win.
07:11And then to the outside, we round out the field with Minx Palace.
07:15If you're playing her off the first six races in her career, she would be a major contender in here.
07:21She had three wins at Churchill. She had some really good speed ratings, the numbers that you're looking at.
07:27But then in her last two races, Alexa, she's just been nowhere since September of 2024.
07:33Which one's going to show up in this spot?
07:35I like her. I'm using her underneath as my second pick.
07:38You know, I think when a horse shows that they love a track, you have to respect that.
07:42And like you said, she's won at Churchill three times. She's only won three times.
07:45They've all been at Churchill. She's never ran off the board in her starts there.
07:50I mean, I like her. I think she's also getting Jackie Louisaia's again, who's ridden her to victory twice before.
07:59So I think this might just be the right track and just the right lineup for her to do well.
08:06So as we get set for our first commercial break, let's flash those selections for the Rock Solana.
08:11Alexa is going to throw the six on top and I'm throwing Muccia on top.