Peter Duran, Adjunct Senior Fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies, joined "Forbes Newsroom" to discuss the proposed peace deal between Russia and Ukraine.
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00:00Hi, everybody. I'm Brittany Lewis, a breaking news reporter here at Forbes. Joining me now
00:07is Peter Duran, adjunct senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Peter,
00:12thank you so much for joining me. Thanks for having me.
00:15I want to talk about a situation right now that is still developing. The United States is
00:20continuing its efforts to broker a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine. And this comes as
00:25Russia launched an attack on Kiev, the deadliest the country's capital has seen in months.
00:31How would you characterize where we are right now in a potential peace agreement?
00:36Well, Brittany, the peace agreement has the potential to collapse in front of our eyes.
00:41In the last day or so, President Trump has been browbeating Ukrainian President Zelensky on social
00:48media. And yet it was Russian President Vladimir Putin who took the opportunity to launch the
00:55largest attack on Ukrainian civilians in their capital of Kiev since last summer. So if Vladimir
01:01Putin wants peace, he has a very violent way of expressing himself.
01:06I want to talk about President Trump's recent social media posts being very critical of both
01:11President Vladimir Zelensky as well as Russian leader Vladimir Putin. And we know that President
01:17Trump in the past, since he began the second term, has been very critical of Zelensky ever since that
01:22February explosive White House meeting between Trump, Vice President J.D. Vance, as well as
01:28Zelensky. This is what he posted on Truth Social Wednesday. Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky is
01:34boasting on the front page of The Wall Street Journal that Ukraine will not legally recognize the
01:38occupation of Crimea. There's nothing to talk about here. This statement is very harmful to the peace
01:42negotiations with Russia in that Crimea was lost years ago under the auspices of President Barack
01:47Hussein Obama and is not even a point of discussion. He also added to this, the statement made by
01:53Zelensky today will do nothing but prolong the killing field and nobody wants that. We are very
01:57close to a deal, but the man with no cards to play should now finally get it done. He then posted this
02:03about Putin on Thursday. I'm not happy with the Russian strikes on Kiev. Not necessary and very bad
02:09timing. Vladimir, stop. 5,000 soldiers a week are dying. Let's get the peace deal done. What do you make
02:16about these rebukes about both of these leaders, but especially that President Trump is more critical
02:21of Vladimir Zelensky? He's publicly saying that the Ukrainian president has no cards to play.
02:27Well, let's look at the Putin chastisement. Whitney, if all we needed to stop this war was simply to tell
02:35Vladimir Putin to stop, this war would have stopped a long time ago. Yes, you are absolutely correct to
02:41point out that President Trump has focused a lot of his attention on pressuring the Ukrainian side,
02:47but it's the Ukrainians who have given the Trump White House everything they've asked for. They have
02:53said, we will absolutely agree to a 30-day ceasefire with zero conditions. When the ball went to the
03:00other side of the court, to Vladimir Putin's side of the court, the Russians began to inject all of these
03:05poison pills into the negotiation process. These would be details that they insist the Ukrainians
03:13agree to, knowing full well that the Ukrainians, nor the United States, would ever agree to these
03:19things, such as U.S. and international recognition of Russia's stolen land in Crimea. Brittany, there is
03:26a U.S. law signed by President Trump himself which says the United States will never recognize
03:33Russia's stolen land there in Crimea. So, in one sense, President Trump is not only negotiating
03:39against himself in the U.S. Congress, but also against Vladimir Putin, while the Ukrainians are
03:44saying we'll agree to all of your terms just to stop the fighting. This is the very complex environment
03:50in which Trump finds himself in, but the main objection, the main obstacle to peace, I should say,
03:56is Vladimir Putin, not the Ukrainians. Let's talk about that Crimea peace, because President Trump
04:02told Time Magazine, Crimea will stay with Russia, and Zelensky understands that, and everybody understands
04:08that. It's been with them for a long time. So, what do you make of that? Because that's a non-starter
04:13for Ukraine, that Crimea stays with Russia. So, talk to us about that. Well, I have seen many of Envoy
04:21Witkoff's statements, and unfortunately, many of them are not aligned with the historical facts.
04:27The fact is that Crimea and the Donbass, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, Kursan, all of the regions that Russia
04:35insists it control as a result of this war, these are all Ukrainian territories. Look at specifically
04:43Crimea. Certainly, in the 1990s, there was an election in Crimea, and the majority of the voters there said,
04:50we don't want to be part of Russia. We want to be part of a newly independent and free Ukraine.
04:56That's significant. So, by sending in his troops and saying, this is mine now,
05:01well, Brittany, the United States has dealt with armies and aggressive leaders like this in the past,
05:07and we always say for over 100 years, we will not recognize your stolen goods, your stolen land.
05:14That's important because if we do, we risk inviting endless wars around the world.
05:20What do you think makes this time different that President Trump is open to the possibility
05:25that Crimea now belongs to Russia?
05:26Well, he's obviously trying to enact the art of the deal. He's very proud of his negotiation skills.
05:34He's dealt with some difficult negotiations in the past. But when it comes to Vladimir Putin,
05:40I think there is a fatal flaw in the White House's current approach. And that flaw is that Putin
05:45wants peace. So far, Vladimir Putin has given no substantive indication that he truly desires
05:52peace. He certainly wants to string the Americans along, string the Ukrainians along. He gains time,
05:59international prestige, and he gets to show his own people that he's a strong leader who's taken
06:05seriously by the international community. It's time to take off the velvet gloves from the American
06:11side and apply more pressure. That's the only way that Vladimir Putin is going to be cajoled into
06:18taking this peace process seriously. What does taking off the velvet gloves,
06:23in your opinion, look like? Because President Trump said Russia not taking all of Ukraine and stopping the
06:29war, those, he said, are two pretty big concessions. So what does taking the gloves off look like?
06:34Well, think about what that means. Also, this is a standard Russian negotiation tactic. We've seen
06:39this for decades. None of this is new. Russia creates a problem, in this case, invading Ukraine
06:45and trying to destroy the country. And then Russia negotiates for concessions to end a problem that it
06:51started and it controls. It's a very standard Russian negotiation tactic. And if the United States
06:57was smart, we would call that out and then we would pivot. And that means applying the same threats
07:05that President Trump himself has already said he would do if he thought Vladimir Putin wasn't
07:09taking him seriously. This includes secondary sanctions on the banks and trading partners
07:14that are helping facilitate Russia to evade our sanctions. That also means ending a Biden era
07:21loophole called the oil price cap, which prevents or which, excuse me, allows Russia to sell millions
07:29and millions of barrels of oil on the international market without incurring a sanctions penalty.
07:34There are a lot of economic measures we can take in addition to continued military support of Ukraine
07:39that would show Vladimir Putin, you're not going to win this negotiation by stringing us along.
07:43If you could explain this, tell me if I'm wrong here. So essentially, over three years ago,
07:48Russia invades Ukraine. Now they were engaged in a war for over three years. Now the United States
07:54is essentially saying, hey, Ukraine, you're lucky that Russia is not taking over all of you. I mean,
07:59what does that signal to the rest of the world? Well, let's also recall that this war has been going on
08:05since 2014. It was only in 2022 that Vladimir Putin committed to a full scale invasion and declared that he was
08:13going to erase Ukraine from the map as an independent state. That is his ultimate war aim. So to have
08:22President Trump say it is a concession on the part of the Russians not to destroy Ukraine as a polity,
08:28as a society. Well, that's, again, a problem Russia has created. And Russia wants to negotiate concessions
08:35to solve a problem that it controls and created in the first place. This is a terrible negotiation
08:41position for the United States to take. And the alternative, like I said, is to take off those
08:46velvet gloves and apply maximum economic pressure on Vladimir Putin. That means denying him the ability
08:54to make money from oil sales, money that fuels his war machine. Brady, think about this. The Ukrainian,
09:02excuse me, the European Union has sent to Russia more money since February of 2022 than it has sent to
09:10by way of oil purchases and gas purchases than it has sent to the Ukrainians in the form of military
09:17assistance. In the West, we are funding both sides of this war. If we're going to radically shake things
09:25up, if we're going to achieve a ceasefire and then an enduring peace, we have to stop funding both sides of
09:30the war. We need to apply maximum economic pressure on Vladimir Putin. President Trump said on the
09:37campaign trail, he vowed, I could end this war in a day. We are nearing the first 100 days, the end of
09:43that, of President Trump's second term. Still, the war continues to rage on. Do you think that he feels
09:49some pressure to get this war done? And that's kind of why you're seeing these almost rushed negotiations.
09:55He's obviously set an internal timeline for himself. We know this because the president has stated as
10:02much. Sure, on the campaign trail, he promised one day. We all know, however, President Trump likes to
10:08use what I'd call rhetorical hyperbole to underscore deeper truth. Obviously, he has made the assumption
10:15that both sides want peace because President Trump, I believe, is absolutely genuine. He wants the killing
10:21to stop. And if he wants the killing to stop, certainly in his calculation, both sides would want
10:26the same. There is a flaw in this analysis, and that is that Vladimir Putin actually feels the same
10:33way. We have seen Vladimir Putin communicate two signals to, excuse me, to President Trump. On one hand,
10:39he makes his phone calls and says, yes, I want peace. And on the other, he continues a sustained bombardment
10:45against the Ukrainian people. Actions here speak louder than Vladimir Putin's words. And Putin's
10:52actions absolutely indicate he wants this war to continue. Brittany, remember, this war justifies
10:58his dictatorship. This war allows him to spread money around his governing society, the elites of his
11:06society, and keeps him in power. If this war were to end tomorrow, Vladimir Putin would have a political
11:12problem on his hands at home. He wants this war to continue. It allows him to sustain his rule.
11:18And I think if we're going to be successful in our negotiations with Putin, we need to embrace
11:23reality and no longer operate in fantasy land when it comes to our assumptions about Russia's dictator.
11:30Let's talk about embracing reality because President Trump, he wants the killing to stop. He said that as
11:35much. But let's say in this deal, Ukraine concedes some land to Russia. Based on history, based on what
11:42we're seeing now, is there any indication that that's good enough for Russia, that Russia would
11:46stop? Or does Russia want more? We know Russia wants more because Vladimir Putin has told us this.
11:54He has made many several he's given several interviews over the last year in which he has been explicit
11:59naming off all of the countries that used to be part of the far flung Russian Empire over a century
12:06ago and even longer older than that. And he has said these are all Russian lands right now. I am
12:11focused specifically on Ukraine. What? So when the Ukrainians say we are a living shield for the rest
12:18of Europe, if we fall, Russia will then start attacking other US allies in Europe. The Ukrainians
12:24are not off base. They're simply repeating what Putin himself has said are his intentions. These are very
12:31high stakes. Now, when it comes to how do we get to a ceasefire and a longer term peace? Obviously,
12:37freezing the line of battle where it is right now, not allowing Russia to take over parts of Ukraine
12:43that it does not currently control and then injecting European security guarantors into this mix. Well,
12:49those are critical components of any enduring peace. That's where we need to get to. But right now,
12:54there are no indications that Putin has any desire to get to that point.
12:59I hear you when you say that these are really high stakes, but just how high are these stakes?
13:04Is there any indication that Ukraine concedes some land here and then Russia eventually steamrolls
13:11Ukraine? There's a World War Three and they attack American allies in Europe.
13:17Well, I think that's an accurate assessment. Just think about this right now. According to public
13:21reporting, NATO's Supreme Allied Headquarters in Europe has calculated that Russia will be in a position
13:28to attack a U.S. NATO ally in Europe in less than five years. And that's under current conditions.
13:35What we could see as a nightmare scenario is that there is a short term peace. The fighting stops.
13:41Russia rebuilds, retools and has learned a lot of lessons from the war over the past few years
13:47and doesn't make any of the past mistakes again. That would be in line with Russia's traditional way
13:52of fighting. Fight, fight, fight, lose, lose, lose, learn those lessons, and then win, win, win.
13:58That's how Russia won on the Eastern Front in Europe. And that is our nightmare scenario in 21st century
14:05Europe. Preventing that means stabilizing the line of battle now, re-bolstering, re-equipping,
14:11re-arming Ukraine, and then making sure that we communicate through our alliance structures that any
14:18attack on Ukraine or a NATO country would be a catastrophic mistake on Russia's part. Signaling
14:23back in 2022 was all wrong. And we let perhaps Vladimir Putin believe he could do another smash
14:29and grab and take the whole country as he did in a smaller scale in 2014 with Crimea. Signaling
14:35and action are how we prevent nightmare scenarios. Earlier this week, the United States threatened to
14:42abandon these peace talks if Ukraine and Russia couldn't come to an agreement. How real do you think that
14:48threat is and what happens if the United States follows through on that? Well, certainly we have
14:54learned one important lesson and that is Vladimir Putin doesn't bluff. If he says he's going to do
14:59something, he intends to follow through. One of the biggest mistakes that we've made in the West over
15:04the last two decades, two decades, think about that, is to hear what Vladimir Putin says and dismiss him
15:11thinking, well, that's too crazy. That's too aggressive. He would never try that or consider that.
15:16And yet Vladimir Putin always follows through on his threats. When Vladimir Putin says something,
15:21we need to take it very seriously and assume he's speaking the truth, at least from his perspective.
15:28President Trump's envoy, Steve Wyckoff, is in Moscow meeting with Putin today. What are you
15:34expecting to come out of that conversation? What are you looking out for after that meeting?
15:38I expect Putin to do what he's always done with Envoy Wyckoff, that is to play the good cop. Remember,
15:46his military plays the bad cop in this scenario. Often he's very clearly created a close relationship
15:53with Envoy Wyckoff, perhaps too close. If the United States is acting as a neutral mediator between two
15:59warring parties, you don't want to be seen as favoring one side. It will antagonize the other side. So
16:05I expect Vladimir Putin to insert new poison pills into the negotiation process saying, well,
16:12if only the Ukrainians would give me one more thing, then maybe I'd think about stopping my
16:19armies from fighting the Ukrainians. Obviously, he's playing for time. He's drinking along the White
16:24House. He thinks he's in control of these negotiations because he's not negotiating. He's
16:30dictating terms. Vladimir Putin is taking the terms of a potential peace. That's not good for the United
16:35States. It's terrible for the Ukrainians. And that's why, like I said, we should slam the door
16:40on Putin's negotiation technique, take off the velvet gloves and apply maximum economic pressure on Russia
16:47to force Putin screaming to the peace table, begging for a ceasefire. That's how you negotiate with Moscow.
16:54Well, there's certainly a lot to look out for. And as the situation continues to develop,
16:58Peter Duran, I hope you come back on and break it down with us. Thank you so much for joining me.
17:03You're welcome back anytime. Thank you for having me.