Mauricio Rodriguez talks about the betting odds surrounding the 2025 NFL Draft and the Dallas Cowboys, focusing in on what Vegas sees happening for America's Team in the 1st round.
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00:00They say Vegas knows all, and I believe that applies to the NFL draft and specifically to the Dallas Cowboys number 12 overall pick.
00:08Here's what the betting odds are saying about what the Cowboys will or won't do in the first round.
00:17Hey, what's up, everyone? It's Mauricio Rodriguez here at ADZ Sports Dallas.
00:21Have you ever looked at a betting spread on Sunday and been like, wait, why is this team favored by only three points?
00:29Maybe you're talking about the best team in the NFL going up against the worst team in the league, and they are playing at home.
00:35They're still favored just by three points, which sounds crazy to you.
00:39A lot of people, specifically casual bettors, will look at that number and be like, man, that's easy money.
00:45But savvy, experienced bettors will look at it with different eyes.
00:48They will think something's up. They know something. I don't.
00:52Well, I applied that line of thinking to the NFL draft and spent a long time looking at NFL draft odds.
00:59To try and come up with a conclusion as to what Vegas is thinking about the Cowboys number 12 overall pick.
01:06And I came away with three key takeaways, including the answer to the biggest question on Cowboys fans' minds right now.
01:14But before we get to that one, number one on the list, the Cowboys are not going to pick a running back.
01:18Early, early in the NFL draft process, Ashton Gentry was linked to the Cowboys in just about every single mock draft out there.
01:26Then it became pretty clear that Gentry is going to be a top 10 pick on Thursday.
01:31So then we pivoted to Amarion Hampton.
01:34Now, not every NFL draft expert was on this one, but Mel Kuyper Jr. from ESPN, one of the top draft insiders out there,
01:42had the North Carolina running back to the Cowboys in three consecutive mocks, which obviously was something.
01:49Plus, Hampton was one of the Cowboys' top 30 visits leading up to the draft.
01:53So the pairing made sense, not to mention the Cowboys absolutely need running back help after losing Rico Dowdle
02:01and just having Javante Williams, Miles Sanders, and Deuce Vaughn.
02:05So for a long time, Hampton made sense.
02:08But I think it's very unlikely that they'd end up going that route, and Vegas seems to think so too.
02:14Running back is plus 800 to be the Cowboys' first pick in the NFL draft,
02:18meaning that if you bet $100 on that happening, you would get $800 in winnings.
02:24And just a quick parenthesis here for those unfamiliar with betting odds,
02:28the more positive a number is, the less likely that is to happen,
02:33while the most negative number is the least likely to happen.
02:37Specifically, running back is the fifth likeliest position, according to Vegas,
02:41to be addressed by the Cowboys.
02:43And that is a pretty low ranking, if you ask me, especially for a top 15 pick.
02:48In other words, I think Hampton is ruled out.
02:51So let's move on to the number two inside here,
02:54and that is the top three positions they are likely going to target.
02:58And according to the betting odds, that is wide receiver, offensive line, cornerback in that same order.
03:04The biggest takeaway here is that a wide receiver is at a negative minus 115.
03:08That means you would have to bet $115 to make $100 in profit,
03:15and that officially makes it a heavy favorite going into pick number 12.
03:20Now, you and I know this.
03:21A lot of talk has been about the Tararoa McMillan from Arizona and Matthew Golden.
03:26So those two names stand out at wide out.
03:29Surprisingly, offensive line is number two.
03:31I've thought offensive line has been ruled out by the Cowboys just based on their free agency signings.
03:36But I guess there's maybe one guy that they really like.
03:40And keep an eye out for a trade down where they target offensive line.
03:44Daniel Jeremiah talked about that recently in a press conference call.
03:48So that's a strong possibility as well.
03:50Offensive line at plus 450, the second likeliest position the Cowboys will target in the first round.
03:56And last but not least, at number three, cornerback.
03:59And I think this is all about Will Johnson.
04:01If the Michigan cornerback falls to number 12 overall, there is a clear need from the team.
04:07With Trevon Diggs dealing with injury and having lost Jordan Lewis in free agency, it would make sense.
04:12And that's why I brought up Will Johnson in my five potential surprises video from earlier in the week.
04:17But now for the number three and most important takeaway of the day.
04:22And this is an answer to a question that many Cowboys fans have.
04:26And this is a little bit of a closer one.
04:28And so there's some insight here, but not enough, maybe.
04:31And that is, what about if Matthew Golden and Ted McMillan are both there?
04:37What if the top two wide receivers, excluding Travis Hunter, are available for the taking for Dallas?
04:43Who do they choose?
04:45There have been some insiders that have heavily implied that they would pick Golden.
04:50We've seen plenty of mocks with Golden to the Cowboys, even though McMillan is there too.
04:55But we've also heard people like Dane Brugler suggest that they believe that if both are there, then McMillan would be the pick.
05:03I think Vegas believes it would be McMillan.
05:06At the very least, here's what we know.
05:08Las Vegas heavily thinks McMillan is going to be the first wide out of the board.
05:13In fact, he's at minus 200 while Golden is plus 140.
05:18That isn't the biggest spread, but it does mean McMillan is a significant favorite here.
05:24And if that is the case, then the only question is, is a team going to pick a wide receiver before the Cowboys do?
05:30Again, excluding Hunter.
05:32The biggest team that could do it, it appears, is the Carolina Panthers at number eight.
05:37Maybe the New Orleans Saints at number nine.
05:39I think those are the two biggest threats for the Cowboys if they want McMillan.
05:44So on the one hand, it's maybe likelier, because it's almost a guarantee that Golden is going to be there at number 12.
05:51So naturally, he is the likeliest prospect to be picked.
05:55But if McMillan is there, I bet it's McMillan, and it seems to be what Vegas thinks.
06:00But now let me know what you think in the comments down below.
06:03Who is going to be the Cowboys' number 12 overall pick next Thursday?
06:06I'm looking forward to seeing your thoughts.