Here's how an impending recession could impact everyday Americans.
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00:00We think they're somewhere around 50 percent.
00:02That might not be very helpful for investors,
00:05because it's basically a flip of the coin,
00:07but it does tell you something.
00:09It does tell you that if you're highly risk-averse
00:11and if you cannot tolerate volatility in your portfolio,
00:15now is not the time to be making those bets.
00:17So the average American will be impacted by U.S. recession
00:21the way most recessions tend to pan out.
00:23You'll see job losses that will lead to reduced consumption,
00:28that will lead to increased job losses, right?
00:31So this is the positive feedback loop
00:33that unfortunately takes place in recessions.
00:35Now, I will say this.
00:37There's always a lot of fear with recessions.
00:39Obviously, no one wants to lose their job
00:40and no one wants to see a contraction in economic activity.
00:42But recessions tend to be actually healthy and needed for an economy.
00:49The sort of issue we've had is that the last two recessions we've had
00:52in the United States have been shocks,
00:54exogenous shocks to the system.
00:56I'm talking about COVID, the global financial crisis.
00:59Most recessions do not look as bad as those two did.
01:02Although this one, I would characterize it as a fiscal shock.
01:06I would also characterize it as a fiscal shock that could potentially be reined in.
01:10Because it is policy-induced, policy could also make it better.
01:15So my point is that if we do go into recession, which like I said,
01:20I think at this point we pegged around 50% odds,
01:23I think it's much more likely to be a milder recession
01:25than we've seen over the versus the previous two.
01:28So we'll see you there.
01:29So we'll be at the back of the next two.
01:30So we're going to see you there.
01:31So we'll be at the back of the next two.
01:32So we'll be at the next two.
01:33So I'm going to see you there.
01:34It's the next two of the previous two.