AccuWeather Long-Range Expert Joe Lundberg looks ahead to next week where the Great Lakes and Northeast regions of the U.S. can expect milder conditions while the South deals with storms and showers.
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00:00Joe, hard to believe we're halfway through the month, and as we continue to ramp through April, eventually, almost always, the warmer air begins to win out.
00:10It's finally starting to win out. We've had to shake loose some of the effects of these Arctic pushes in recent weeks, and you kind of felt it in the east over the past couple of days.
00:19But that's about to change. That's part of our three things to know. It's going to be mild next week from the Great Lakes to the northeast, the Ohio Valley, the mid-Atlantic states.
00:27That's a big change from what we've been looking at over the past several weeks.
00:31Unfortunately, the flip side of that to the south, there's going to be rounds of showers and thunderstorms across the southern tier of the U.S., and that carries with it a risk of flooding.
00:38The opposite side of that is that they need rain in Florida, in the southeast, and it doesn't look like there's going to be much in the week ahead.
00:45You know, it's been feast or famine across parts of the south, Joe, and you can really see that when you take a look at the 30-day rainfall.
00:53You really can. I mean, these areas obviously got hit very hard with the incredible flooding a couple of weeks ago, you know, for much of the mainstem Ohio River Valley,
01:02and then it came down into the lower Mississippi Valley, some of that in parts of Texas.
01:06But notice the lack of rain down here in Florida. That's the 30-day rainfall.
01:10Now look at the U.S. Drought Monitor, the most recent one.
01:13You can see these areas here in the Carolinas.
01:15Parts of eastern Georgia are still abnormally dry in drought conditions, and of course that's even worse in Florida.
01:21Central and West Texas into New Mexico, it's also bad, but in here, with all that rain, we don't have any drought concerns.
01:27And unfortunately, the rich are going to get richer and the poor are going to get poorer as we go through the pattern over the next couple of weeks.
01:32Here's the general overview for next week.
01:35General troughiness in the western U.S., probably more biased toward the west coast than anything else.
01:41Meanwhile, you'll see upper-level ridging develop in here, and there'll be a series of disturbances coming through the float.
01:46Now, as they come into the west, they're going to be innocuous, not much moisture to show for them, but they get east of the Rockies.
01:52Guess what? They pull the moisture up from the Gulf of America, and voila, you're going to see rounds of showers and thunderstorms.
01:57I think this one's going to hit on Tuesday, and this one's probably going to ignite west of the I-35 corridor.
02:03It includes Dallas, Austin, maybe San Angelo up to Oklahoma City.
02:07Then that will be spreading eastward with time Tuesday afternoon, Tuesday night into Wednesday, and may even have some carryover effects into Thursday.
02:14I noticed, Joe, though, when we talked about this when you were talking with your long-range team,
02:21once again, though, you're not very impressed for rainfall from the Carolinas to Florida next week.
02:26No, I was talking with Paul Paslock yesterday.
02:28We were doing our long-range podcast, and he's concerned that these areas in here, in the eastern Carolinas,
02:32and especially down into Florida, are going to be lacking rainfall in the next couple of weeks.
02:37And if you look at the pattern going forward for the end of April and really into the beginning of May,
02:42it's not going to look a lot different than next week.
02:45A weak trough in the west, general flat flow across the country with a tendency for ridging,
02:50which means a lot of mild air or temperatures on the plus side of average,
02:53most of the cool air for the Rockies and the Pacific Northwest.
02:56And as storms come through, guess what?
02:59You're going to have to deal with rounds of severe weather, I think, into the beginning of May.
03:02You're going to have to deal with rounds of severe weather, I think, into the beginning of May.