What does Southeast Asia really think about the state of the region, and of ASEAN? That’s the question at the heart of The State of Southeast Asia 2025 survey — it’s a unique gauge of sentiment from the region’s policymakers, academics, civil society, and private sector leaders. With the US and China doubling down on their influence, where does that leave ASEAN? And what role will Malaysia play as ASEAN Chair this year? On this episode of #ConsiderThis Melisa Idris speaks with Joanne Lin, Senior Fellow and Co-coordinator of the ASEAN Studies Centre at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore. She is the co-author of the ‘State of Southeast Asia Survey’ 2025.
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00:00Hello and good evening. I'm Melissa Idris. Welcome to Consider This. This is the show
00:24where we want you to consider and then reconsider what you know of the news of the day. What
00:29does Southeast Asia really think about the state of the region and of ASEAN? Well, that's
00:35the question at the heart of the State of Southeast Asia 2025 survey. It's a unique
00:41gauge of the sentiment from the region's policymakers, academics, civil society and private sector
00:48leaders. And with the US and China doubling down on their influence, where does that leave
00:54ASEAN? And what role will Malaysia play as ASEAN Chair this year? Today on the show, I
00:59have the co-author of the State of Southeast Asia survey, Joanne Lin. She's the Senior
01:05Fellow and Coordinator of the ASEAN Studies Centre at the RCS Usof Isha Institute in Singapore,
01:11where her research includes ASEAN institutions, external relations and political security
01:16developments within the region. Joanne, welcome to the show. Thank you so much for joining
01:21me.
01:22Thank you, Melissa.
01:23I would like to begin our conversation by looking at this survey. It's the seventh edition
01:29of the survey. I'm wondering, Joanne, what you have observed as the biggest shifts in regional
01:36sentiment compared to previous years when you look at this edition.
01:42Yeah, that's right. So one of the most significant shifts in this year's survey is really the growing
01:47divergence in how Southeast Asians view the United States, particularly under a second
01:53Trump administration. So just to clarify that this survey was conducted over six weeks between
02:00the 3rd of January and 15th of February, and that straddles the Trump's inauguration on the 20th
02:06of January. So what is striking is that despite Trump's tough leadership, there is an unexpected
02:12increase in positive perceptions amongst Southeast Asians towards the U.S. under his second term.
02:19So according to the survey, 40.7% of the respondents expect U.S. engagement with Southeast Asia to
02:27increase, and that is actually a significant rise from only 25% last year under President Biden.
02:34And moreover, when asked to choose between the U.S. and China, a majority actually chose the U.S.
02:40over China, which is a reversal of last year's tilt towards China.
02:45So this shift appears to reflect actually a few factors. And I think first is Trump's more
02:52assertive leadership style that resonates with the more authoritarian, maybe leaning governments
02:58in the region who may really appreciate less preaching about democracy and human rights.
03:04And of course, a second significant number of respondents actually believe that I think Trump
03:10could resolve global conflicts, including the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, based on what he promised
03:17during his campaign. And I think that there could also be an expectation that Trump would
03:22deprioritize Europe and refocus U.S. strategic attention on the Indo-Pacific, which Southeast Asians
03:30might welcome. You know, however, that said, this optimism is not really uniform across the region.
03:36There are countries like Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, that actually show a decline in trust
03:41towards Washington, of course, driven by concerns over Trump's unpredictability, unilateralism,
03:48and of course, the lack of commitment to multilateralism. And I think, in fact, Singapore actually emerged
03:54as the most pessimistic country in the region about U.S. engagement under Trump 2.0.
04:00And I actually have an article about this in Fukram, our institute's website.
04:05However, just a caveat, you know, that actually over time, I think the region's confidence in the U.S.
04:10may decline as the survey was really conducted in the early days of the administration.
04:17And I think beyond the perceptions of the U.S., I think another important development is really the rising trust
04:23in middle powers such as India and Japan. And that really signals ASEAN's desire to diversify partnerships
04:31and avoid over-reliance on the two major powers.
04:35This is so interesting because it's come at the time where you have this, the perennial tug of war
04:42between the U.S. and China is now the most compelling narrative in the headlines today.
04:47Can I ask you, once again, in this edition, I think it's the same with previous editions as well,
04:55China has seen to be the most influential economic, political, and strategic power in the region by your respondents.
05:04But the respondents also, more than half of them, actually say that they're worried about this.
05:10I'm curious about this contradiction. How are you interpreting this contradiction?
05:14What is fueling this trust deficit?
05:18Yeah, exactly. That is right. I think this contradiction reflects really a deep and evolving strategic ambivalence
05:26in Southeast Asia's relationship with China.
05:29So on the one hand, China is clearly seen as the most influential external actor in the region,
05:36economically, politically, and strategically.
05:38I think its influence is very extensive, as we can all agree, from infrastructure projects to financing green initiatives
05:47to really driving digital technology adoption across ASEAN.
05:52But on the other hand, I think this growing cloud is also accompanied by an equally entrenched kind of sense of unease.
06:00And really, more than half of the ASEAN respondents say that they are worried about China's regional influence,
06:07particularly its use of coercive economic tools, assertive actions in the South China Sea,
06:13and also perceived interference in the domestic affairs of ASEAN states.
06:19And I think this duality is really not new, but it is becoming more nuanced.
06:24ASEAN countries really acknowledge that China is really indispensable for growth,
06:31but yet they are wary of becoming overly dependent or strategically compromised.
06:37And I think this sentiment is especially pronounced amongst the claimant states of the South China Sea.
06:43So we see that a significant proportion of respondents, that's more than 50%,
06:48that cited China's aggressive behavior in the South China Sea as the most pressing geopolitical developments.
06:56But I think yet, despite these concerns, I think it's also notable to note that China's trust rating have improved.
07:04And according to this latest survey findings, the trust in China to do the right thing
07:08actually rose to perhaps more than 35% from maybe just a low of less than 20% last year.
07:17But while China still lags behind partners like Japan or EU in terms of the overall trust,
07:22I think this improvement suggests a growing regional recognition of Beijing's growing leadership credentials.
07:30And I think this is very important as well,
07:33because they believe that China has both the capacity and also the intent to shape international governance,
07:39especially, you know, at the time when Western powers, including the US that we saw,
07:45are perceived to be distracted or sort of internally divided.
07:50And that actually aligns with Beijing's own efforts to position itself as a responsible global actor,
07:57particularly in the global South and in multilateral and minilateral platforms like the BRICS.
08:04Yeah. How did your respondents think ASEAN should respond if the region is caught,
08:11you know, in the crossfire between Beijing and Washington?
08:15When they're competing for influence and leadership in Southeast Asia,
08:19how should ASEAN respond according to what they want?
08:22Yes. So the dominant view amongst ASEAN respondents, that's more than 50%,
08:29is that ASEAN should enhance its resilience and unity to fend off pressure from the two major powers.
08:36And that aligns with ASEAN's longstanding principles of non-alignment.
08:40But also, it reflects an important evolution, I would say, because neutrality is no longer about passivity.
08:50So rather, it is about a proactive strengthening of ASEAN's internal cohesion, economic resilience and diplomatic weight
08:58so that it can navigate great power rivalries on its own terms.
09:02So that suggests that ASEAN's member states are no longer content, you know, to simply avoid choosing sides.
09:08They want to shape the terms of engagement.
09:11But while that's said, about a quarter of the respondents believe ASEAN should continue not siding with either U.S. or China.
09:18And that underscores support for, like, ASEAN's more traditional balancing act.
09:23And that also indicates the belief in the value of equidistance, right?
09:27So even as the pressure to choose sides grows stronger amidst the heightened strategic competition.
09:34But also, interestingly, about a 15% of respondents favor seeking third parties to broaden ASEAN's strategic space and options.
09:43And that points to partners like Japan, India, Australia and the EU.
09:47And it also reflects a maturing of ASEAN's hedging strategy from a binary approach between Washington and Beijing
09:56to a more multi-vector foreign policy approach.
10:00So what is really clear about the survey is that the region does not want to be caught in a zero-sum game between U.S. and China.
10:09So it wants to have agency, option and room to manoeuvre.
10:14So strengthening ASEAN's internal resilience and expanding its external partnership will really be the best way to do this.
10:21Okay.
10:21Well, let's look at ASEAN's internal resilience, ASEAN's internal health.
10:25What struck me also was that a lot of respondents don't seem to have a lot of confidence in ASEAN to tackle some key issues.
10:34One of the top concerns about ASEAN is that the bloc is, and if I may quote the report with this line,
10:40they're worried that ASEAN is, quote, slow and ineffective, thus cannot cope with fluid political and economic developments,
10:48and is becoming irrelevant in the new world order.
10:51That's a tough conclusion to come to.
10:55What's driving this lack of confidence, do you think, amongst the respondents?
11:00Well, the erosion of confidence in ASEAN's effectiveness, I believe,
11:05stems largely from its inability to respond decisively and also effectively to protracted regional crisis
11:12that we all see in the news every day, and most notably is really the Myanmar crisis and the South China Sea disputes.
11:19And I think the continued failure to really implement the ASEAN five-point consensus on Myanmar
11:24has really cast doubt on ASEAN's credibility as a mediator,
11:28while also the prolonged delay in finalizing a code of conduct on the South China Sea,
11:34which China has also reinforced perceptions of institutional paralysis.
11:40And I think these shortcomings have really laid bare the limitations of ASEAN's consensus-based decision-making model,
11:48which often favors the lowest common denominator over some timely and bold actions that we hoped that ASEAN would have.
11:57So the latest survey findings really reflect a deeper sense of frustration,
12:02particularly amongst the younger demographics, and I would say amongst the strategic analysts as well,
12:07who expect ASEAN to step up amidst an increasingly complex and very high-stake geopolitical environment.
12:14So there is a growing sentiment that ASEAN is really lagging behind in terms of the speed and scale of today's challenges
12:22from the great power competition to climate change and also the digital transformation.
12:28So while that said, I think expectation of ASEAN still remains high
12:32because the region still look to ASEAN to provide regional leadership and safeguard the regional autonomy.
12:39So this sort of a dual sentiment of fading confidence but enduring expectations
12:45suggests a critical juncture that ASEAN is in right now.
12:49So it must not only reform its institutional mechanisms and decision-making processes,
12:54but also it needs to demonstrate some stronger political will amongst the member states
12:59to want to act collectively, even in issues that are sensitive and divisive, you know.
13:06Yeah, you pointed to Myanmar in your answer, and I'm just wondering, could you elaborate on that?
13:12What did the survey show you about how respondents would like ASEAN to move the Myanmar issue forward?
13:21I think that the survey really reflects a very persistent frustration
13:27and really an urgent call for a recalibrated ASEAN's approach to the Myanmar crisis.
13:33So while support for engaging in independent dialogue with all stakeholders remains the top choice across the region,
13:41I think this figure has actually declined slightly.
13:44So I think despite this dip, it continues to be the only option with consistent support across all ASEAN member states,
13:52indicating some broad regional agreement that an inclusive multi-party dialogue
13:58that involves the national unity government and also the ethnic armed groups is really the most viable way forward.
14:05But the second most popular option from respondents is actually, and that is an increase from last year,
14:13is actually for ASEAN to utilize a stronger measure to increase the cost of non-compliance for Myanmar junta.
14:20And this growing appetite for tougher action signals really a shift in public opinion towards greater accountability
14:28and perhaps in the form of targeted sanctions or diplomatic isolations or even coordinated pressure through ASEAN mechanisms.
14:38And it's also interesting to note that only 10% of the respondents support a very strict adherence to the non-interference principles of ASEAN.
14:47And I mean, this is a very long-standing principle.
14:50And this indicates that the bloc's kind of more traditional position is losing resonance
14:55in the face of very protracted instability and violence in Myanmar.
15:02You know, I think in short, it shows that Southeast Asians are really pushing ASEAN to move beyond symbolic gestures.
15:08And the region wants ASEAN to adopt a more inclusive, pragmatic, and perhaps assertive approach to the Myanmar crisis
15:17while working within the ASEAN political parameters.
15:21Does that then allude to you, Joanne, that the principle of ASEAN centrality is somewhat fraying?
15:29Yeah, there are growing signs that ASEAN centrality and by that I mean the region's role as a convener and agenda setter is really under strain.
15:43So while ASEAN continues to enjoy like broad support, I think there are still quite a significant proportion of respondents
15:51that actually express concerns probably over ASEAN's slow and cautious approach as we just talked about earlier, right?
15:58And that is, of course, overpressing regional challenges.
16:01And also we saw in recent days and years that the rise of mini-lateral groupings like Quad, Aukus, Briggs,
16:08they really reflect a shifting diplomatic landscape because these groupings are seen as really more nimble,
16:16more focused and action-oriented, which really contrasts quite sharply with ASEAN's consensus-driven model.
16:23So, and I think there are growing prominence suggests that ASEAN is really no longer the sole or uncontested part of regional diplomacy.
16:33But that said, I think ASEAN centrality is not irrelevant, but it's conditional.
16:37It's really conditional on its ability to remain central.
16:41And that depends on whether it can adapt and deliver meaningful outcomes, you know.
16:45Well, having said that, Malaysia has the opportunity as chair this year, the responsibility and the opportunity.
16:55What do you think ought to be the priorities of the chair this year?
17:00What should we be focusing on?
17:02So, Malaysia's chairmanship really comes at a very pivotal juncture for the region.
17:09I mean, of course, we see that, like, you know, there's growing geopolitical tensions
17:14and there's more economic uncertainties and the return of Donald Trump to the White House.
17:19So, I think Malaysia has really the opportunity, or I would say responsibility,
17:24to really restore ASEAN's credibility and to steer the block through these turbulent times.
17:30And first, I think it should take leadership in revitalizing ASEAN's response to the Myanmar crisis,
17:35which continues to undermine ASEAN's unity, right?
17:38So, I think it can leverage on its more vocal stance.
17:41And its recent appointment of a special envoy, Othman Hashim,
17:47and its broader humanitarian network to push for a more inclusive outcomes-based approach
17:53to the five-point consensus will be useful.
17:56And second, I think progress on the South China Sea code of conduct is really vital.
18:02So, Malaysia is in a very strong position to push for negotiations that really align with international law,
18:08particularly the 1982 UNCLOS, and they should do so to avoid ambiguity or delays in the document,
18:17because Malaysia is actually both a claimant state of the South China Sea
18:20and also the country coordinator for ASEAN-China relations.
18:25So, Malaysia is in a very good position to actually bridge gaps between ASEAN members
18:30while balancing some sort of sensitivities with China.
18:35And I think the expectations of a code of conduct this year may be quite unrealistic,
18:40but I think Malaysia can deliver progress through some interim measures,
18:44such as maybe de-escalation, protocols, clarity on prohibited activities,
18:49or even some guidelines to prevent maritime incidents.
18:54And third is to take the lead on ASEAN's economic resilience,
18:57especially given Trump's recent announcement of the sweeping tariffs, right?
19:02And I think Malaysia has actually done well,
19:04because, you know, yesterday the ASEAN Economic Minister actually issued a statement on that,
19:09you know, that call for a strong unified stance against it
19:13and to uphold a multi-ledger trading system.
19:17Right. So, I mean, you're absolutely right.
19:18So much has happened since the survey was first done.
19:20It was done in January, February.
19:23Yes, five weeks.
19:24Okay.
19:25So, since then, I mean, so much has already happened.
19:28I'm curious to know what you think,
19:31or you might be watching out for,
19:34that might influence next year's survey.
19:36Oh, yeah.
19:38I mean, there are so many developments this year
19:42that could definitely shape the regional sentiments in the next year's survey.
19:46So, of course, at the forefront of our mind right now
19:49is really the fallout from Trump's tariffs.
19:51And I think these tariffs could erode definitely the goodwill towards the US,
19:55particularly in very trade-dependent countries,
19:58including Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam.
20:00And I think if this sort of measures disrupt regional supply chains
20:04or investor confidence,
20:05I think we are definitely going to see a sharp decline
20:08in perception of US economic leadership in next year's survey.
20:12And, of course, the next area that I'm going to look out for
20:14is really the trajectory of US-China relations,
20:18which continues to cast a long shadow over the region.
20:21And I think this includes the rising tensions over Taiwan,
20:24the situation in the South China Sea,
20:27or even whether there could be a grand bargain, right,
20:30between Washington and Beijing.
20:32And, of course, the third aspect which I'll look out for
20:36is really Malaysia's performance as the ASEAN chair
20:39and whether it can really drive progress on tawny issues
20:42like Myanmar and the South China Sea
20:44and whether it can steer a coordinated ASEAN response
20:47to help really restore confidence in ASEAN's relevance and unity.
20:52Oh, wow. So next year's report could be essentially the report card
20:56for Malaysia as ASEAN chair.
20:59Exactly, exactly.
21:01Joanne, while we still have some time,
21:02do want to ask you, one of the things that struck me was that
21:05in this report, climate change and extreme weather events
21:11was billed as one of the top challenges
21:15that the respondents think the region will be facing.
21:18Was that something that you saw in terms of a trend
21:21that the concern was increasing
21:23or did it come out of the blue?
21:25And what are you thinking about for next year
21:27in terms of tracking how concerned respondents are
21:30about this challenge?
21:32Yes, yeah. Actually, you are right
21:34because for the first time in the survey's history,
21:37climate change and extreme weather events
21:39actually emerged as the region's top concern.
21:42And I guess that, you know,
21:44that sort of marks a turning point
21:45in how Southeast Asian perceives security threats, right?
21:49I mean, it's not just about hard security,
21:53but also with non-traditional issues
21:55now being seen as more pressing, you know,
21:59than economic or even geopolitical tensions.
22:03So it's really like a reminder that, you know,
22:06ASEAN must evolve to really meet both strategic
22:09and also environmental challenges simultaneously.
22:14And you and your team spend months tracking this data
22:18and have done so for years.
22:21What do you hope the findings are used for?
22:25Who do you hope is paying attention
22:27to what the respondents are calling out for?
22:32Well, of course, this is a, I would say,
22:35an elite-based survey.
22:37So basically, those that attempted the survey
22:39are those that are in a position to inform.
22:42So that means that they are reading about ASEAN,
22:45they have knowledge about ASEAN.
22:46And of course, the primary audience would be
22:48those that are in the policy circle,
22:51in the government, in the academics.
22:53But of course, I think these are issues
22:55that would touch and affect everybody's life.
22:58So it's issues that will affect the livelihood
23:01of all the citizens in ASEAN.
23:04And so if it can reach out to even the ordinary laypersons,
23:08people in various industries,
23:11besides being in the private sector,
23:12I think that it's good to have a knowledge,
23:15you know, of an important organisation like ASEAN,
23:19what it's doing in the region
23:20and what sort of challenges that we are facing.
23:23Right.
23:24Oh, and I forgot to ask you about ASEAN's newest member,
23:28Tim Olesdi.
23:29Are they being accepted with open arms into the bloc?
23:34Yes.
23:35I mean, definitely.
23:37I think Tim Olesdi's entry is broadly welcome, of course,
23:41and, you know, widely seen as a reaffirmation
23:43of ASEAN's commitment to inclusivity, right?
23:47I mean, we are an inclusive bloc.
23:49But I mean, while questions remain
23:50about Dili's sort of institutional preparedness
23:54and its sort of administrative capacity,
23:57I think its accession is viewed as both a,
24:00really will be a symbolic and strategic milestone for ASEAN.
24:04And it really signals that ASEAN remains open
24:06to expanding its community.
24:08I mean, even amidst internal and external challenges,
24:11you know.
24:12Right.
24:12Joanne, it's been such a pleasure talking to you.
24:14Thank you for sharing some of the insights
24:17from you and your team,
24:18the hard work that you've put into
24:20putting this report together this year.
24:22Thank you for your time.
24:23It's my pleasure.
24:25That was Joanne Lin from the
24:28RCS Youth of Asia Institute in Singapore
24:30talking about this year's edition
24:32of the State of the Southeast Asia Survey.
24:36And that wraps up this episode of Consider This.
24:38I'm Melissa Idris signing off for the evening.
24:40Thank you so much for watching and good night.
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