Visiting Hanoi, Chinese President Xi Jinping has called on Vietnam to join hands with China to counter U.S. tariffs. Ja Ian Chong, associate professor at National University of Singapore, tells TaiwanPlus that Hanoi will look to balance ties between Beijing and Washington without picking a side.
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00:00Chinese President Xi Jinping is aiming to work with Vietnam to counter the U.S. tariffs.
00:05What does this entail?
00:07And how receptive is Hanoi to this?
00:09So there's a good chance that Hanoi will say some of the things that Beijing likes
00:13to hear.
00:14But ultimately, Hanoi, I think, will be wary about being too dependent on the PRC and they
00:20will also be wary about upsetting the United States.
00:24So I think Hanoi will ultimately still try to find ways of negotiating with Washington,
00:30even as it tries to perhaps satisfy Xi Jinping, at least rhetorically.
00:37Can China rely on Southeast Asian countries to offset the challenges it faces from the
00:42U.S. tariffs?
00:43The PRC will try, but it's going to be difficult.
00:45It'll be difficult because even prior to the tariffs, the last round of the U.S. PRC trade
00:52war has seen the PRC divert some of its trade towards Southeast Asia.
00:56That has led to some complaints of overcapacity, that has led to some concerns about local businesses
01:03being put under pressure by cheaper Chinese goods, especially small and medium-sized enterprises.
01:08The second round, the current round of the trade war will likely intensify these pressures.
01:14So Southeast Asia, I think, will, while they want opportunities to cooperate with the PRC,
01:18they'll be wary of overcapacity and protection of their own industries too.
01:23At the same time, I think what the PRC can offer is somewhat limited.
01:27How will the U.S. respond if Vietnam agrees to expand trade with China, as the Trump administration
01:34is working towards closing the trade loopholes?
01:36So I believe the Trump administration will at least respond strongly in rhetoric to Beijing.
01:43It may slap on more punishment, more tariffs, but at this point, any additional tariff, the
01:48sort of effect is already more mutual in the area of sort of diminishing marginal returns
01:53for additional tariffs. The question is whether the Trump administration also decides to punish
01:59Vietnam and Hanoi. So I guess that is where Hanoi will be, I think, quite quick to try to assure
02:05Washington that it does not seek to act in ways that are detrimental to U.S. interests.