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00:00We welcome you to our number two live right here on this Monday morning on the early line on SportsGrid.
00:06He is Donnie right side. I am Ben Stevens.
00:09It is a postseason primer all around the association.
00:12Donnie is smiling ear to ear because the regular season in the NBA is done.
00:17The postseason on the horizon play in tournament tomorrow, Wednesday, Thursday.
00:23Off day for everybody around the NBA on Friday.
00:26And then our opening round playoff matchups that are already set.
00:30They begin on Saturday, just five days away.
00:34Regular season through DRS.
00:36The days of trying to handicap. Is this player going to be involved?
00:40Are we sure about the availability report for us here at 10 a.m.
00:44Eastern for a game that doesn't tip for 12 more hours?
00:47Those days should be through.
00:50It's about the postseason now in the association.
00:53It's great, though. It is like we're going to get through this
00:56playing around, and meaningful basketball is all we're talking about here.
00:59Where Ben and I can come together on the early line at 8 or 9 or 10 o'clock in the morning
01:04and say, here's the starting lineup tonight.
01:06Not to be like, ah, Kawhi and James Harden are going to sit this one out late.
01:09Boy, that stinks.
01:10We handicapped it wrong with all the clips that go out during the day.
01:12So now you get a pretty clean cap.
01:14But also understand this.
01:15Seemingly, in the NFL, you have the wild card round.
01:17It's great football still, you know, and they changed up the process where only the number
01:21one seed sits it out.
01:23But look at that Saturday card already setting up, Ben.
01:251 o'clock start, Bucs Pacers.
01:273.30 start, Clippers Nuggets.
01:296 o'clock start, Pistons Knicks.
01:31Late night game, Timberwolves and the Lakers.
01:33Like, that's just the card that we're opening up to saying, man, we're going to get seven
01:36game series of meaningful basketball for the next couple months.
01:40This is what we've waited for.
01:41And it's a shame.
01:42Because the end of basketball is a great product.
01:44Like, we don't ever look at the regular season of college basketball, Ben, and say, man,
01:48just get this over with.
01:49We have fun night on night basis.
01:51We just don't have that in the NBA.
01:52So it's almost like the brand new season, the only part of the season actually starts
01:57and we'll be invested, we'll be caring, and it's going to be interesting to watch it play
02:01out.
02:01We're up and down the court, first quarter, second quarter, third quarter, fourth quarter,
02:05emotions and meaning in a game.
02:07We haven't had that for 81 games.
02:09Because 82 games, we actually had a couple on Sunday, which was nice to watch.
02:12We certainly did, DRS.
02:15And I think it is a fair point.
02:16It might feel like a blanket statement to say throughout most of the NBA regular season,
02:21there is limited motivation.
02:22That's not, of course, correct.
02:23We know these guys do care for those important and marquee matchups.
02:27But there are so many games where you're like, I'm not sure that guy's in this position.
02:32They're already fine in.
02:34So can they really move up the standing?
02:35Certainly down the final few weeks of this NBA regular season in spots, we saw that motivation.
02:42And added it to the handicap.
02:43In others, it was like, it's really kind of a toss-up and up in the air as into what
02:49happens in insert X regular season NBA game.
02:53In the postseason, though, very different environment, DRS.
02:58And you see that in the odds as well.
03:00The spreads get tighter.
03:02The totals get shorter.
03:03Because we know defense is going to be ratchet up.
03:06And that intensity amplified in the association by the time we reach the postseason.
03:12And that includes the play-in tournament.
03:14Our 7-8 matchup out in the Western Conference.
03:17Tomorrow night, inside the Chase Center, by the Bay in San Francisco, the Golden State Warriors
03:22host the Memphis Grizzlies.
03:24A seven-point spread, Donnie, in favor of the Dubs.
03:28The over-understands at 229.
03:30Now, Memphis probably not playing their best basketball in a tumultuous final month or so
03:36that also led to the dismissal of their head coach in Taylor Jenkins.
03:40But the Grizz back in a postseason affair.
03:44Golden State not just a seven-point home favorite for this matchup against the Grizzlies.
03:48Two teams that know each other pretty well when it comes to the postseason in the NBA
03:52in the last half decade.
03:53But Golden State has a very optimistic outlook to get out of the play-in tournament,
03:58to be the seventh seed in the Western Conference, and to make some noise once the playoffs
04:02truly begin out West as well.
04:05Exactly.
04:05You want to handle your business here.
04:07Nobody wants to get into the play-in round.
04:09But at least there's a little bit of comfortability that when you're one of the higher seeds
04:12in the play-in round, if you lose, you get a second chance still to advance into the playoffs.
04:16But when you're a veteran team like the Golden State Warriors,
04:18if you are going to play this game and it's going to take place tomorrow,
04:21boy, you'd love that time off.
04:23You've got the win on Tuesday night, off Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, into the weekend we go.
04:27Now we're ready to go.
04:28Then we lose game number one.
04:30We're not going to worry about it because it's a seven-game series at that point.
04:33So that's the advantages that you need.
04:34And also understand this.
04:35We talk about this.
04:36In Major League Baseball, you have those playing games per se, right, the wild card round.
04:41And some teams are used to playing every single day.
04:43They have five or six days off, and they're a little bit sluggish.
04:45That's not the case in the NBA.
04:46So if you're going to get four or five or six days off, at least in the NBA,
04:49it's like, hey, man, in a short series, we might get knocked out.
04:52Like, no, it's seven full games.
04:53So nobody looks at the Bucs, Pacers, Clippers, Nuggets, Pistons, and Knicks.
04:57How are they going to perform after so much time off because you have an extended series?
05:01So you do get a clean look, and the cream will rise to the top in the NBA.
05:04But if you're the Golden State Warriors, after that devastating loss in overtime to the Clippers,
05:09just handle your business as a touchdown favorite at home and get into the actual playoffs now.
05:14Yeah, and Donnie, we talked about this for the Memphis Grizzlies,
05:18who did win the regular season finale yesterday against the Dallas Mavericks by 35 points.
05:24The Mavs kind of realized they were in the 10th spot around the Western Conference.
05:28Memphis in the second half, or at least post-All-Star break, as an underdog, atrocious.
05:34They did win yesterday outright as a slight dog against the Mavs.
05:38But in their previous 10 games as an underdog, following the All-Star break, 0-10 against the spread.
05:46It has not been an easy stretch post-All-Star break for Memphis by any means.
05:51I do wonder about that total of 229.
05:54This is now playoff basketball, or at least post-season basketball in the Western Conference.
06:00Memphis, fourth highest over percentage out of a Western Conference team throughout this year.
06:05Donnie, frankly, out of 30 NBA clubs, only six played a majority of their games, more than 50% to the under.
06:12But Golden State, not one of the majority, but they did play exactly 41 of 82 games to the over, 41 of 82 games to the under.
06:2150-50 split on either side.
06:24You would almost think that if the Dubs are in full command tomorrow night, slowing down the pace of Memphis,
06:30this total probably stays under 229.
06:33And Ben brings up a good point here.
06:36And the same points that we look at in the NCAA tournament, boy, there is no tomorrow in that tournament.
06:40It's neutral court sites.
06:41People like to bet the unders.
06:42And let's just take a look at the four games and encapsulate those.
06:45Hawks, Magic, opened up at 218.5, down to 216.5.
06:48Memphis Grizzlies and Warriors, which we're talking about right now, 231.5, now down to 229 at the FanDuel Sportsbook.
06:53Miami Heat, Chicago Bulls, opened 222, down to 219.
06:57And the Dallas Mavericks and the San Antonio Kings opened up at 222, down to 217.
07:02People buying back extremely on that under here with those opening numbers.
07:06And I agree with you.
07:07Now, there is a little bit more leeway in the Grizzlies-Warriors game because it's not a true,
07:11oh, no, we lost this game.
07:12We go home for good.
07:13So maybe a little bit more open ends.
07:15But it's still a playoff atmosphere where defense is going to matter.
07:18And we're not going to get those fast breaks because guys will be hustling repeatedly
07:22because they understand how big it is to win these type of situations to avoid a play-in game again
07:27where you could lose and go home.
07:29Winner of this game becomes the seventh seed in the Western Conference playoffs.
07:33And again, that would be a visit to the Houston Rockets, who will have home floor advantage as the two seed.
07:39But, Donnie, the Dubs are a seven-point favorite.
07:41So let's show those Western Conference odds to really paint the picture of the outlook come true playoff time.
07:48The Dubs, a favorite in the play-in game, have a 9-1 price to win the Western Conference championship.
07:55Third best in this conference and far, far better than that of the team they are more than likely to see
08:02in the opening round, the Houston Rockets, at a 25-1 price.
08:06And again, the Rockets, as the two seed, would have home floor advantage.
08:10The loser of the 7-8 game would then host the winner of our 9-10 matchup on Wednesday.
08:16That game will also be in Northern California, in California's capital.
08:21The Sacramento Kings hosting the Dallas Mavericks.
08:23Five-point spread DRS in favor of Sacramento, as you shared.
08:27That total working its way down at 217.
08:31Anthony Davis is healthy.
08:32I think the Mavericks might be able to make some noise as the underdog.
08:35I don't know, because I still like the starting five of the Sacramento Kings and the fact that they are at home and are favorites here.
08:43But also, we're asking the same notion.
08:45If we're expecting a playoff-type atmosphere here, it's almost like, you know, to take the points and pray that you have that moniker in the NCAAs
08:52because you're asking for the Kings at five, doing by six, seven, eight, nine points in this game,
08:56when maybe they might not even win the game at all.
08:58But for me, I do think the Kings are the better team overall, riding the home teams in this environment.
09:02Because also, keep in mind, fans entering the arenas now.
09:05It's a playoff game.
09:06Ratcheted up intensity from them as well, which includes the fans.
09:10That's what we like to see here.
09:11I still think we'll go chalk with the Kings for me.
09:13The rest of the West playoff picture up next.
09:17Play-in tournament action starts tomorrow.
09:20A doubleheader of our seven, eight games, both in the Eastern and Western.
09:24Conferences will look at the East in just a moment.
09:27More play-and-turny games on Wednesday.
09:30Loser of the seven, eight game will host the winner of the 9-10 game on Thursday.
09:35And then, Donnie, the four playoffs start on Saturday.
09:39Of course, we already know a couple of our opening round matchups on either side of the NBA.
09:45That would be the three.
09:46Sixth split in the four-five series as well.
09:49Let's start with that three-six matchup in the Western Conference.
09:52Here is the Western Conference playoff picture.
09:55The Oklahoma City Thunder won that number one seed a long time ago and by a very substantial margin.
10:01In fact, a closing margin, 16 games in front of the Houston Rockets.
10:07But last week as well, the Rockets had clinched the two-seed.
10:10With a victory on Friday night over that two-seed, the Lakers did clinch the three-seed.
10:16Of course, we detailed how the rest of the Western Conference playoff picture did take shape.
10:21Denver wins, clinching the four-seed and home-four advantage in their opening round set against the Clippers,
10:26who won a thriller in OT yesterday against Golden State, sending the Dubs to the play in tourney.
10:32The Clippers as the five-seed and Minnesota, a home victory against the Utah Jazz.
10:37The T-Wolves had two very easy games in their final three to end out the regular season weekend.
10:43And they took advantage of both of those to be the sixth seed.
10:47As we look at the Western Conference standings and these first two playoff series that we know, DRS,
10:533-6 matchup, Lakers-T-Wolves, 4-5 matchup, Nuggets hosting the Clippers.
10:59Which of those two sets that we already have determined intrigues you the most?
11:04Oh, it's got to be the Clippers and the Nuggets.
11:06It really does.
11:06Because how many times do we get to take a chance at the Clippers?
11:09Like, boy, Ben, if they could just, they're never healthy in the playoffs.
11:12They're going to just bow out.
11:14Now, granted, we're at the playoffs right now.
11:15What happens after this, we don't know.
11:17But if you're going to tell me that the Clippers, the way they're playing basketball right now and completely healthy,
11:23why can't they do damage?
11:24This is what we waited on.
11:25It's usually, oh, James Harden slowed down with a hamstring injury.
11:27Or Kawhi with some mysterious knee injury where he was just boarding a flight and absolutely twisted his knee and tore his ACL.
11:34That's been the M.O. here for the past couple years.
11:36I mean, who can forget Paul George with the Clippers?
11:38Like, hey, big game tonight.
11:39COVID, I'm out.
11:40And so there goes our season in the protocols.
11:42They've had every which way to be snakebitten in the playoffs.
11:45And finally now showing up healthy against maybe a vulnerable Nuggets team going over the coaching transition here.
11:51Maybe some infighting there in turmoil and not a great season as they anticipated, which they thought maybe they can be the number one overall seed.
11:58So for me, that's intriguing.
11:59And also game number one where they are underdogs in that one.
12:02If I was going to take maybe a shot at a Clippers ticket here to win that playoff series in round number one and maybe a shot for the Western Conference finals, this would be a really good indicator.
12:10But I'm not slandering the Timberwolves in the Knicks.
12:13Luka Doncic and LeBron James playing in a basketball series is fantastic.
12:16Anthony Edwards, that's great.
12:18But the Clippers Nuggets, that's where my focus is going to be in the West.
12:20No doubt, DRS, in the series, number is incredibly, incredibly short.
12:25Denver has home floor advantage minus 136 to win this series outright in that series price.
12:33OK, the Nuggets have home floor advantage, but a very tumultuous end of the regular season for Denver.
12:39The dismissal of Michael Malone, really bad vibes around that locker room.
12:43The Nuggets did bounce back on the actual hardwood, winning their final three games, including yesterday on the road against the Rockets and even covering as a seven and a half point favorite.
12:54But there's no hotter team entering the postseason on either side than that of the L.A. Clippers.
13:00They have won eight straight in 18 of their last 21 after starting the stretch following the All-Star break, just one and six.
13:09And a big reason why, healthy and productive James Harden, healthy and productive Kawhi Leonard, big will Norman Powell now in postseason form, and Evita Zubats, the big man for L.A., performing at a very high clip.
13:23Yesterday, DRS, you talked about this in that regular season finale in San Francisco against the Warriors.
13:28If you were to have said, at home, Golden State got 36 out of Steph, 30 out of Jimmy Butler, all right, the Warriors probably won that game at least.
13:38But on the other side, Harden had 39 and 10, Kawhi had 33, and Evita Zubats, a 20 and 15, and a couple of extra on that in terms of points and rebounds, double-double yesterday to lead L.A. to that road victory outright as an underdog.
13:55DRS, are you believing enough in the Clippers to bet them as the series underdog against Denver?
14:01Yes, and here's the reason why.
14:02The NBA regular season, as much as I dislike it here, there are ebbs and flows, there are back-to-backs, there's a lot of travel involved here.
14:10Understand this, there's no travel really involved and no back-to-backs that you're going to have to worry about.
14:15Like, you're talking about the first round of the playoffs, which takes so long because every game wants to be spotlighted on television.
14:20You know how that helps?
14:21It's not the young teams here with the young, fresh legs at 20, 21, 22.
14:25It's the aging veterans like, OK, we're going to put in some work on a Monday night.
14:29We won't have to play again until Thursday.
14:32We don't even have to fly back home.
14:33So we'll be playing.
14:34We'll fly in on Sunday, play Monday, have off Tuesday and Wednesday, and play in the same city Monday.
14:40That makes a difference.
14:41And also, Ben, when you're playing in elevation, where is the shocker?
14:44Hey, just played last night in Utah.
14:46Now I have a back-to-back in Denver.
14:48We're exhausted at this point.
14:50Now you can get acclimated to the altitude, get a game, and get the field, get the practices in.
14:54It's such a big advantage and a different landscape that you're playing with.
14:57And so the Clippers, for me, a veteran-laden team, extra rest only helps them in the playoffs.
15:03A 17-1 price as well on the Clippers.
15:07Sixth best to win the Western Conference Championship.
15:10I do think there is some value there.
15:12The last time L.A. won a playoff series back in 2021, so those playoff shortcomings have been a theme for the Clippers as of late.
15:21But if they can remain healthy, there you go.
15:24Of course, there are the narratives around James Harden, but Kawhi Leonard has been there before if he is healthy.
15:30The other playoff series that we already know in the opening round, DRS Out West, the Lakers, a minus-172 favorite against the Minnesota Timberwolves.
15:39L.A. has home-floor advantage.
15:40This is why you get Luka Doncic, to pair him up with LeBron James in a postseason run, trying to capture a crown.
15:48How do you feel about the Lakers entering the playoffs?
15:51Yeah, they have home-court advantage.
15:53They have two superstars, and they have the NBA advantage, if you know what that means here.
15:58The farther the Lakers go, the better the NBA does at this point.
16:02No disrespect to Minnesota and the Timberwolves fans up there.
16:05Ann Edwards is an absolute superstar stud.
16:08But when the Lakers win, and the Celtics win, and the East Coast and the West Coast continue to move forward,
16:14and no shit in this respect to OKC, don't get caught up.
16:16You better play way better if you play the Lakers here, because they're getting the calls here.
16:20Lakers over the Timberwolves just because, people.
16:24Listen, Minnesota has had a very optimistic outlook all year after reaching the Western Conference Finals.
16:31I do think this benefits the Lakers here, though.
16:33Second-best price to win the West.
16:35Out to the Eastern Conference deck.
16:37From West to East, not nearly as much at stake in the regular season finale weekend to figure out the Eastern Conference standings.
16:46And as Donnie will make his point here, I am sure, really the Eastern Conference postseason should look like the WCC or Sunbelt tournament in college hoops,
16:56where the top two seeds, Cleveland being the one seed, Boston the reigning champs, and the two seed, should be at the very end of the bracket.
17:03That looks like a gauntlet.
17:05And let's just fast forward to the Eastern Conference Finals.
17:09Might some teams play upstart and upset that?
17:12Perhaps.
17:13But it really does feel like we're kind of fishing at the bottom of the barrel.
17:17Let's start with our play-in tourney games in the Eastern Conference.
17:21In that 7-8 matchup, our first game of the play-in tournament tomorrow night.
17:26The Orlando Magic host the Atlanta Hawks.
17:28Orlando, a five-point home favorite with a total of 216 and a hook.
17:33DRS, the Magic, who had a great start to the year and then a very mediocre middle,
17:38did end the year in a strong way to have home floor advantage for this Eastern Conference play-in tourney game
17:45against Trey Young and the Hawks.
17:47A five-point spread in favor of Orlando.
17:50Yeah, I would probably lean on the home team once again.
17:52Line opened up at the FanDuel Sportsbook at five.
17:54Hasn't moved really.
17:55Some other outlets been showing five and a half, so a slight uptick there.
17:58The one thing that we do know is the Atlanta Hawks a little bit more freewheeling than the Orlando Magic.
18:02So you sort of have that contrast of styles entering into this one.
18:05Who's going to slow it down?
18:06We're going to play by the Magic's number, and this number now, that 218 and a half at the FanDuel Sportsbook
18:11at the opening number, now down to 216 and a half, and how much farther that is going to fall.
18:15Because if you ask me who's going to win this game, I think it's the Magic.
18:18But I also think that game stays under the total.
18:20I don't think we had a 120 to 110 final in this one either way, with a victor being the Hawks and or the Magic.
18:26But the one thing also that we should be doing here, Ben, like the Eastern Conference,
18:29it should be the first four.
18:30Like, put these guys in Dayton.
18:32Wouldn't that be nice?
18:33All in one arena.
18:33For sure.
18:34Everybody get excited.
18:35People will be able to buy it at that point.
18:37You know what I mean?
18:37So I do think there's ways that you can improve on, okay, Orlando's at home.
18:41They deserve it.
18:41They're going to have the home crowd.
18:42They'll probably win this game.
18:43But just the Eastern Conference, as compared to the West, just doesn't give me added interest.
18:48But I would get a kick out of it if they're at some neutral site like Bubble for the four teams.
18:52Winner makes it out.
18:53Or the two teams that make it out, they fly to their next destination.
18:57Could be on to something here.
18:59DRS, you're speaking my language, my man.
19:01I absolutely love it.
19:02I think all play-in type games, their first four games, should be in Dayton, Ohio.
19:08That includes in the association.
19:10I'm surprised that Donnie feels that way.
19:13DRS, middle of March, with about a month to go in the NBA regular season.
19:18Orlando was 31-37.
19:21They did drop the regular season finale against the Hawks in Atlanta, but the Magic had already clinched.
19:26Home floor advantage for this play-in tourney game and could not catch the Pistons for that sixth seed.
19:32So down the stretch of this regular season, Orlando finished 10-4 before dropping the regular season finale against these Hawks.
19:40They had won five in a row, including a matchup against Atlanta last week as well.
19:46I think Orlando's in a good spot to control this game.
19:49However, in terms of play-in pedigree, although it hasn't been that long-standing of a thing in the association, Atlanta hasn't.
19:59This will be the fourth consecutive year the Hawks have been a play-in tourney team, and they are 3-1 straight up in their previous three trips.
20:09They're only lost.
20:10The only time they have lost and gone home immediately was last year.
20:14The Hawks comfortable, at the very least, in these play-in tournament games.
20:18Yeah, there is something to be said about that because also you're handling that pressure environment differently.
20:23Been there, done that, no chance.
20:25We can go on the road.
20:25We can stay at home.
20:26We can win anywhere we can and sort of advance there.
20:29So there's that, but I'm not playing into that this year.
20:31I do think Orlando is the better overall basketball team up against the Hawks in this game.
20:35And once again, if you're picking a five, like, well, I don't know if they can – I think they can win, but not by five.
20:39Stop it.
20:39You can pick the winner.
20:40You're going to pick the team that's actually going to cover the spread more times than not.
20:43I shouldn't say nine times out of ten.
20:45But I do think the Magic are the better team overall.
20:47Defense, slow it down pace, frustrate the Hawks.
20:49But you're right about this, Ben.
20:51There is a chance that we watch, and we're going to watch highlights and say, man, Trae Young from the logo repeatedly.
20:56If he does that, there's nothing you can do, and he's done that in the playoffs.
20:59I'm going to take it to Magic.
21:00The better team here, they win this game, and they cover.
21:03I would agree, DRS.
21:04Yes, I'm still back in the Magic.
21:05Second highest underpercentage for Orlando, more than 57% of their games.
21:10Second highest overpercentage for the Hawks, nearly 62% of their games.
21:16Our 9-10 matchup in the Eastern Conference.
21:20The Chicago Bulls playing well down the stretch, clinching home floor advantage inside the United Center.
21:26For a team that is four games sub-500, against a team that is six games sub-500, the Bulls an ever-so-slight favorite against the Miami Heat on Wednesday night.
21:38A few thoughts about this game, DRS, on the other side.
21:42I think the Bulls are just playing a better brand of basketball.
21:45Kind of an exciting young team trying to capitalize on this opportunity.
21:51We'll talk about it up next.
21:52Again, two very familiar teams that play attorney games as well.
21:56A postseason primer around the association when they focus right now on the Eastern Conference.
22:02You want a play attorney game, you got one.
22:05Wednesday night, the Madhouse on Madison going to be rocking inside the United Center in Chicago.
22:11The Bulls hosting the Heat.
22:13Again, DRS, much like the Atlanta Hawks, three of our four teams that have reached the Eastern Conference play attorney this year.
22:19Very comfortable in these spots.
22:22Third consecutive year for the Heat in the play-in tournament.
22:25Third time, the Bulls have been a play-in tourney team.
22:29The last time they got to the actual playoffs was back in 2022.
22:34Basically a money-line pick-em between Chicago and Miami.
22:38Who do you give the advantage to on Wednesday night?
22:40If I'm looking at this game, and these two teams are bad basketball teams, under .500, fighting for their lives, losers going to go home.
22:47But when I look at the Miami Heat on the road to take on the Chicago Bulls, Ben, I see the other spreads.
22:52Five, seven, five, four and a half, three, seven, five.
22:55This is one?
22:56Like, this is just a stone-cold Heat line at this point.
22:59But if we'd like to believe that, oh, it's Coach Spoh, and he'll get these guys to play.
23:03Like, it looks so easy to take the Chicago Bulls and take a look at, you know, 66% or so of the tickets coming in on the Chicago Bulls.
23:09And then you just take a look at the money-line tickets also on the Chicago Bulls.
23:13Does it look too easy for us?
23:14And I understand, like, the public does win its fair share of basketball games.
23:18But I'm surprised that that line is just sitting at minus one.
23:21Now, there are some other outlets at minus one and a half.
23:23And we'll see where this game actually is at game time.
23:25But if I'm just reading lines, that's a Miami Heat line.
23:28But knowing what I know about the Heat and the Bulls' home-court advantage to win one basketball game,
23:33it's not like the Heat are world beaters that are, oh, darn it, but they went on the road, you know,
23:36in the last week and a half and beat the Celtics here.
23:38I don't care about that.
23:39I just think the Bulls are a more talented team, and I'm willing to lay the minus one.
23:42But, again, I'm wondering why we only sit at minus one.
23:46DRS, we saw this game just a week ago on April 9th in Chicago.
23:51The Heat were a slight road favorite in the UC against the Bulls,
23:55and the Bulls won that game outright as a slight home dog, 119-111.
24:00In fact, down the home stretch of this year, in the final month and a half,
24:03Chicago won a ton of games outright.
24:06They were 24-38 on March 4th.
24:09They won 15 of their last 19, six of their last seven,
24:13and led by a really solid young core, Josh Giddey, Kobe White.
24:17This team is performing pretty well right now.
24:20It does feel as though you're paying the public price on Chicago,
24:24despite the odds market being a little bit fishy here.
24:27And, of course, we know Heat pedigree.
24:28We know Heat culture.
24:30They have overperformed on expectation,
24:32despite being in these similar spots the last few postseasons.
24:36But Jimmy Butler is gone.
24:37The Heat have also been playing a little bit better as well.
24:4029-14 on March 21st.
24:43But for a team trying to improve its playoff picture,
24:46they went 8-4 down the stretch.
24:48I'll wait on this game until we get to Wednesday to see what the market is saying,
24:53to see where the numbers stand.
24:54I do lean Chicago, though.
24:56The Bulls are an interesting team, at least, to win one play-in tourney game
25:00and maybe to make things interesting in Atlanta,
25:02assuming the Hawks do lose outright as the underdog against Orlando.
25:07Yeah, a lot to be desired, a lot to be checked out over the next couple days.
25:10We'll get the injury reports.
25:11We'll know who's playing on those games.
25:12And also, when the public starts to weigh in.
25:14Because understand this, it's not the NFL.
25:16It's like, hey, man, some people are going to wait for that Sunday afternoon slate
25:19six, seven days in advance to get down on these wagers.
25:22These games and these numbers will move accordingly.
25:25But the one interesting point that we already brought up then
25:27is the unders getting hit right at the opening bell.
25:29We're not really getting to take a look at that sort of size
25:31because Orlando Magic, minus five.
25:34Open number, still sits at minus five.
25:36Take a look at Golden State, seven and a half.
25:37That is down a half, but only to seven here.
25:39You take a look at the Bulls, open up at minus one, still at minus one.
25:42And then the Mavericks and the Kings, minus five, still sits at minus five.
25:45So not a lot of action so far on the sides,
25:47but the totals just based on what people's perception is,
25:50hammering the unders so far.
25:53In DRS, there could be a time that even a total in the mid-210s
25:57seems lofty for a playoff game, but that might come a little bit later on.
26:02All right, we look at the Eastern Conference playoff standings.
26:05We have said this in the odds proven.
26:08We are really just biding time, it would appear,
26:11until we get to the Eastern Conference finals
26:13in that hopeful matchup of the Cavs hosting the Celtics.
26:17Cleveland does have home floor advantage
26:18throughout this Eastern Conference postseason.
26:22The Celtics, though, are the reigning champs
26:24and the minus money favorites to win the Eastern Conference crown.
26:27Let's take a look at those odds quickly
26:29before we discuss the rest of the conference.
26:32Minus 140 for Boston, plus 185 for Cleveland.
26:36I will be intrigued to see what the series price is,
26:40if slash when we do get one versus two in Cleveland
26:44for the Eastern Conference finals.
26:46Are the odds going to be a little bit further apart
26:49because it's just two teams left,
26:51and the Celtics and the Cavs have reached that expected juncture,
26:54or are we going to see the Cavs get more respect
26:58than the odds makers are giving here?
27:00But, Donnie, until we get to the Eastern Conference finals,
27:03because we'll do it all throughout the playoffs,
27:05of course the conversation is, who else?
27:08Who can maybe provide a test?
27:10Who can maybe be a challenger and a contender
27:12elsewhere around the Eastern Conference?
27:15Is there anybody in your mind?
27:17And if so, who do you point to?
27:20It's when you saw the graphic that came up there,
27:23and you say, if there's one team that you want to say
27:25who can make a run, typically in the past you might say the Bucs,
27:27but Lillard being down, and the team just hasn't been all that good.
27:30The pedigree is there with the championship because it's Giannis Antetokounmpo.
27:33They're out for me.
27:34The Pacers, starting five looks really good.
27:37Don't trust them one iota.
27:38The Detroit Pistons, too soon at this point,
27:40making the playoffs just probably happy to be there,
27:42and the rest of the bunch behind them, absolutely not.
27:45But the team that is still intriguing, I'm sorry,
27:48is probably the New York Knicks at that 11-1 price
27:50because you just look at them and say,
27:53boy, if they get it together, they have a coach with a good pedigree,
27:57they have a team that has superstars in the starting five,
28:00they play in Madison Square Garden,
28:01which is an unbelievable home court advantage in the playoffs
28:04just from a crowd perspective.
28:06That's the one team I look at.
28:07But again, we say, in the West, we're talking about teams like,
28:10hey, look at the Rockets, the 2C get no respect at a big price.
28:13Or how about the Clippers, who do have these monumentally talented players
28:17that now get the break in the playoffs of being able to rest and being healthy.
28:20It's a lot easier to choose.
28:22Top two is going to be a runaway.
28:24But I guess if I had to choose, Ben, it's going to be the Knicks.
28:27At least they have the talent to somehow upset teams that are better than them,
28:32but they can't in the regular season.
28:34Maybe it changes in the playoffs.
28:36That's what we're left with here.
28:38That's what we're left with.
28:39And we'll say this right now, Donnie,
28:41for a guy that bet the Houston Rockets back in the middle of February
28:44around the All-Star break,
28:46hoping Houston would be a 2 or a 3 seed to have home for advantage
28:50so I can at least profit a little bit on a cash-out option.
28:53My odds are worse right now on the Rockets than they were back about two months ago.
28:58The reason I highlight that is because maybe you're looking at the Bucs
29:02or the Pacers or the Knicks, perhaps not the Pistons,
29:05although Detroit being in the playoffs for the first time since 2019,
29:08trying to win their first playoff series since 2008,
29:11is a fun story and a narrative.
29:13And maybe you're thinking, at 11-1,
29:15if I can get to the Knicks in the second round to visit the Celtics,
29:18maybe I'll have a cash-out or a hedge-out opportunity.
29:20Yeah, I don't know.
29:23I think you need New York to get to the Eastern Conference Finals,
29:26which is something the Knickerbockers have not done since 2000.
29:30That's really where I struggle, DRS.
29:32I actually kind of like the Bucs a little bit.
29:36Yes, no Dame,
29:37but I'm not sure the experiment of Dame time and Giannis
29:40really ever worked out that well.
29:42Milwaukee is 1-8 straight to end out the regular season,
29:46playing good basketball as of this moment.
29:50And DRS, I'm not in love with Indiana,
29:52despite the fact the Pacers held New York
29:54from an Eastern Conference Finals appearance last year,
29:57and of course did give the Celtics a challenge,
30:00at least for a little bit,
30:02before injuries proved too costly in the ECF against the Celtics.
30:06Again, I think it is a very, very, very slim chance
30:09that we don't just see the Cavs and the Celtics
30:12in the Eastern Conference Finals.
30:14I do, however, believe there's a little bit of value
30:16in the opening round.
30:18The Pistons are getting two and a half games
30:20in the series spread.
30:22I think Detroit can get it to six,
30:24and the Bucs are the underdog at plus 190 against the Pacers,
30:29despite not having home floor advantage.
30:31I do think the underdogs in the two sets
30:33that we have right now, Donnie,
30:35actually have just a tad bit of value in the first round.
30:39Yeah, no, they're interesting first round matchups here
30:41because the expectations is what's going to be the finality,
30:44which we do think it's going to be the top two seeds here
30:46playing in the Eastern Conference Finals,
30:47for the right to, let's just say, take on OKC.
30:49That's what we're looking forward to.
30:50But the day-to-day handicap will be fun
30:53on the other series in the Eastern Conference.
30:55They're just not that star-studded affair
30:57where it's like, hey, what's the pot of gold
30:59at the end of the rainbow?
31:00Getting knocked out by the Celtics and the Cavaliers.
31:02Congratulations for winning a round here.
31:04That's the expectations.
31:05But we'll find out sooner than later.
31:07But we do think that Eastern Conference Finals
31:09seems set in stone right now.
31:11Yeah, it really does.
31:12And the odds maker's backing it up.
31:15More about the postseason in the NBA.
31:16Next.
31:18The NBA regular season is in the books.
31:21The postseason is here,
31:22starting with a play-in tournament this week,
31:24Tuesday through Thursday.
31:26The actual playoffs and our opening round
31:28begins on Saturday.
31:30So we note this as a moment in time
31:33where the NBA championship odds are right now.
31:37Because for the next month and a half,
31:39really two months, the RS,
31:40that will be the focus.
31:42Who goes home as an NBA champion,
31:44hoisting that Larry O'Brien trophy
31:46high into the sky.
31:47Last year, for the 18th time in franchise history,
31:51it was the Boston Celtics
31:52getting back atop the pinnacle of the NBA.
31:55And this year, really all throughout,
31:57the Celtics expected to be there once again.
32:00But in the last two to three weeks,
32:02we have seen the odds flip
32:04where the Celtics are no longer
32:05the NBA championship favorites,
32:07despite still being that minus money favorite
32:10to win the Eastern Conference crown.
32:12The team in front of Boston,
32:14that's the Oklahoma City Thunder
32:15at a plus 180 number.
32:17Only a dime though, Donnie.
32:19That's it.
32:20Just 10 cents of difference
32:21between OKC and Boston.
32:24Who would you set as the NBA finals favorite
32:27entering the postseason?
32:29Yeah, it's still going to be OKC.
32:31Like, even though we don't have
32:32the postseason pedigree to lean back on,
32:34which the Celtics do,
32:36last year, world champions,
32:37this year coming back
32:38with maybe even a stronger team,
32:40just biding their time
32:41to get into the playoffs.
32:42It wasn't as if they had
32:43the sixth seed in the East.
32:44Like, we just didn't care.
32:45Like, they finished second overall
32:46to a really good Cleveland Cavaliers team.
32:48So I still think OKC at plus 180
32:51would be my wager
32:52as opposed to taking the Boston Celtics.
32:53But how about getting closer
32:55and closer and closer?
32:56And even by 10 cents today, Ben,
32:57the Cavaliers were hovering
32:58at that 5-1 price for a long time.
33:00Now plus 490 at the FanDuel Sportsbook.
33:03And it's clear,
33:04there are a top three in the NBA.
33:06The one interesting thing,
33:07the way you buy back,
33:08is what's your MO coming into it
33:10as a sports handicapper?
33:11You can't go wrong
33:12with the Boston Celtics at plus 190.
33:14Now, sure, they might not win it,
33:16but we don't...
33:16Oh, man, Celtics get upset
33:18in round number one.
33:18Like, this team is really good.
33:20They're going to be able
33:21to get to the Eastern Conference Finals.
33:22The same way I feel
33:23about the Cavaliers.
33:24Because why, Ben?
33:25They play in the Eastern Conference.
33:27The path is a little bit easier.
33:28The questions start to come up is,
33:30I think we're in agreement.
33:31The best overall team,
33:32to be honest,
33:32really is,
33:33like, regardless of record
33:34and how you get disrespected
33:36on, let's just say,
33:37the Houston Rockets.
33:37Like, OKC, best record.
33:39I don't think too many people say,
33:40oh, no, it's the Celtics.
33:40Like, the Celtics have
33:41a great chance to win it.
33:42Yes, but the best team being OKC.
33:44But that conference, though.
33:46Superstar-laden up and down.
33:47And we don't have the pedigree
33:49to be like,
33:49they'll be just fine
33:50down 2-1
33:51in the second round
33:52of the playoffs
33:53in a series, right?
33:54That's the only problem with it.
33:55But I do love OKC,
33:57the foundation of the team,
33:58the way they played.
33:59I'm not going to disrespect them,
34:01but I'm just laying out
34:01the pathways
34:02of some people
34:03might just be saying,
34:04look, East is easier
34:05to get there.
34:05You can't win an NBA championship
34:07unless you get to the finals.
34:08And maybe OKC
34:09just has that tougher road overall.
34:12DRS, I think it's a great point
34:13because now is the time
34:14for Oklahoma City
34:15to prove that promise
34:17in the postseason.
34:18There is no doubt
34:19they were the best team
34:20in the NBA
34:20throughout the entirety
34:22of this regular season.
34:23They will have
34:24the regular season MVP
34:25in Shea Gilgis-Alexander.
34:27But this core,
34:29this group,
34:29under head coach
34:30Mark Dagnalt,
34:31they've only really had
34:32one opportunity
34:33in the playoffs.
34:35It was last year
34:36with SGA
34:37and Jalen Williams
34:38and Chet Holmgren.
34:39They have added
34:40Isaiah Hartenstein,
34:41who of course
34:42is a big piece
34:43and has some of that
34:44playoff pedigree
34:45for his time
34:46in New York
34:47with the Knicks.
34:48And Donnie,
34:48they're going to have
34:49home floor advantage
34:49throughout the entirety
34:50of the Western Conference,
34:52throughout the entirety
34:53of even an NBA
34:54championship series.
34:55A better record
34:56than both Cleveland
34:57and Boston.
34:58We're going to go
34:59to a Larry O'Brien trophy,
35:01more than likely,
35:02through Oklahoma City.
35:04But last year
35:04was really their only
35:05playoff trip.
35:06And in the second round
35:07against Luka Doncic
35:08and the Mavericks,
35:09they lost in six games.
35:12That's that.
35:13Can they now turn
35:14and use that lump
35:15and that experience
35:16to elevate this year?
35:18Certainly.
35:19And I expect that
35:20to be the case.
35:20I know,
35:21or at least I think
35:22pretty strongly
35:23with a decent amount
35:24of confidence
35:25that at bare minimum,
35:26the Thunder will be playing
35:28in the Western Conference
35:29finals with home floor advantage.
35:32But you don't really have the,
35:33I remember two years ago
35:35when they did just that,
35:36they're going to get
35:36back to that stage.
35:37They have not been there
35:38just yet.
35:40And in terms of the odds,
35:41Donnie,
35:42three teams this year
35:43in the association
35:43won more than 52 games.
35:46They're the three teams
35:47with less than a 17-1 price
35:49to win the NBA championship.
35:52OKC, 68-14.
35:53Cleveland,
35:54second best record,
35:55best in the Eastern Conference,
35:5664-18.
35:58And the Celtics,
35:59it's 61-21.
36:01I think there has been times
36:02this year, Donnie,
36:03where we thought Boston
36:04would four and away
36:05have the best record.
36:07But approach 70 wins.
36:08They have Tatum
36:09and Jalen Brown back
36:10and Kristaps Porzingis healthy
36:12for a good majority
36:13of the year.
36:14And guys like Derek White
36:15and Peyton Pritchard
36:16continue to excel along
36:18with Drew Holiday.
36:19Everybody back
36:20from the NBA champs
36:21a year ago.
36:22And they faltered
36:23just based on those
36:24otherworldly expectations.
36:26And they will not have
36:28home floor advantage
36:28inside TD Garden
36:29like they did a season ago.
36:32But maybe that's not
36:33the worst team.
36:34Best road record
36:35this year in the NBA.
36:37The Boston Celtics
36:38at 33-8 straight up.
36:41Yeah, exactly.
36:42So it sort of like
36:42contradicts the point.
36:43Like, you must have
36:44home field advantage
36:45to win this.
36:46And the Celtics are like,
36:46yeah, we'll be just fine
36:47wherever we play.
36:48Why?
36:48Not because they just
36:49play well on the road.
36:50They have really good players
36:51and a championship pedigree
36:52and they're healthy
36:53entering into the postseason.
36:55Now, the one thing
36:55that also,
36:56it's OKC, Boston, Cleveland
36:58going to get the top
36:58of the standings
36:59and the top of the,
36:59you know,
37:00the rankings for us here.
37:01Then you have like
37:01the Lakers,
37:02the Warriors,
37:02and the Knicks.
37:03But who's that Cinderella?
37:04Like in, you know,
37:05conference tournament play
37:06in NCAA March Madness play,
37:08we always have usually
37:09a Cinderella that could
37:10crash the party
37:11or popular.
37:12Who do we think though,
37:13outside of like
37:14myself and yourself,
37:15like who would people
37:16be picking
37:16to be that Cinderella?
37:18The Rockets 75-1,
37:19the Bucks with the pedigree
37:20at this point,
37:21the Pacers to get hot,
37:22John Morant to get hot
37:23and throw grenades
37:24into the stands.
37:25Like who is actually
37:26the Cinderella in the NBA?
37:28Like that's what I need
37:29to reach out
37:29and talk to some people
37:30about like legitimately.
37:31And I don't want to hear,
37:32oh, the Nuggets are Cinderella.
37:33Not talking about that.
37:34Like can the Rockets,
37:35the two seed,
37:36be qualifying as a Cinderella?
37:38Because the Cinderella
37:39really is about the seed line,
37:40not the actual price point.
37:42So there's that.
37:43DRS,
37:43of the 12 teams
37:45that have already
37:46reached the playoffs,
37:47of course,
37:48with a couple to be filled
37:49out from the play-in tournament,
37:51Houston at 75-1
37:53would certainly qualify
37:54as a Cinderella.
37:56Detroit at 410-1
37:58also would be a Cinderella.
38:01The Pistons trying to win
38:02their first playoff series
38:03since 08.
38:05Is this the year
38:06that if Boston wins
38:07championship banner number 19,
38:10that Jason Tatum
38:11can win NBA Finals MVP?
38:13Let's not forget
38:14his teammate in Jalen Brown
38:16taking home both of the awards
38:18last year,
38:18Eastern Conference Finals
38:19and in the finals,
38:21of course,
38:21with the,
38:22yeah,
38:23maybe so.
38:23NBA championship favorites,
38:25Oklahoma City.
38:26So Shea Gildas-Alexander
38:27at a plus 190 price
38:29is the favorite to win
38:30NBA Finals MVP.
38:33Hour number three,
38:34our fourth and final up next.
38:35It is not hour number three.
38:38I do apologize.
38:39Got a little bit excited.
38:40It is the end of hour number two
38:42live right here
38:44on the early line.
38:45I know, DRS.
38:46I am sorry.
38:47NBA Finals MVP odds
38:49that we just looked at
38:51right before the break.
38:52Shea Gildas-Alexander,
38:53of course,
38:54plays for OKC,
38:55who are the NBA Finals favorites.
38:57So plus 190 for SGA,
38:59which is only 10 cents away
39:01from the plus 180 price
39:03of his Thunder.
39:04I think if you assume DRS
39:06that Oklahoma City
39:07is the rightful betting favorite
39:09to win the NBA championship,
39:11SGA is going to be
39:13the reason why.
39:14The intriguing one to me
39:16is still the guy
39:17with the second best price.
39:19And that's Jason Tatum,
39:20who, of course,
39:21led his Boston team
39:23to an NBA championship
39:24last year,
39:25but was unable
39:27to have the individual accolade
39:29as a Finals MVP.
39:31Jalen Brown winning
39:32both Eastern Conference Finals
39:34and NBA Finals MVP.
39:36Would you bet on Tatum
39:37to maybe do it this time around
39:39if you believe in Boston?
39:41No, I wouldn't.
39:42But again,
39:43subjective awards are tough.
39:45Like, we don't ever watch
39:46and be like,
39:46you know what?
39:47The Boston Celtics
39:48just won the NBA championship.
39:50And then before they hoist the trophy,
39:51they go, okay,
39:52let's just go to the voters here
39:54to see if the Celtics
39:54actually won the championship.
39:56Like, no,
39:56I just watched them win it.
39:57I don't need them for voters
39:58to come in.
39:59So now you get the human element
40:00that goes,
40:02we gave it to Brown last time.
40:04You know,
40:04Tatum wasn't great,
40:05but now's his chance to shine.
40:07Like, you don't want to ever
40:07get burned by that
40:08because for me,
40:09there's only four paint-by numbers
40:11under 30-to-1
40:12as a price point here
40:13for the MVP
40:14in the NBA Finals.
40:15It's Shea Gilgis-Alexander.
40:16There's no way
40:17that Chet Holmgren
40:18is winning this award,
40:19which means
40:20Shea Gilgis-Alexander
40:21was just average
40:22during his run
40:22and then in the NBA Finals.
40:23Not happening.
40:24Same thing, I think,
40:25with Donovan Mitchell
40:26with the Cleveland Cavaliers.
40:27He's got to be epic
40:27for them to overtake the Celtics
40:29and then also OKC.
40:31Then you find
40:31Steph Curry at 27-to-1
40:33and Nikola Jokic
40:33at 29-to-1
40:34saying,
40:35if those teams win the championship,
40:37those guys will be the MVP.
40:38Which, who am I leaving out here?
40:40Jason Tatum, plus 250.
40:42Jalen Brown, 24-to-1.
40:44Luka Doncic, 26-to-1
40:45because he plays with LeBron James.
40:47So for me, in that instance,
40:48I'm not looking
40:49outside the box per se,
40:51but if you wanted
40:51that little bit of,
40:52I guess, price point,
40:54like SGA would get it
40:55because he's going to score
40:5630 points in every game
40:57they win.
40:59You would expect maybe DRS
41:01for a team that is
41:01a plus-180 favorite
41:03and minus-160
41:05or whatever the number is now
41:06to win the Western Conference.
41:08that there would be
41:08a couple of Thunder Stars
41:10on the top 10 odds
41:13to win NBA Finals MVP?
41:15Nope.
41:16Next shortest price,
41:17Jalen Williams at 65-to-1.
41:19Chet Holmgren at 100-to-1.
41:21One of the price
41:22that stands out to me
41:23is Luka Doncic at 26-to-1.
41:26Luka Doncic,
41:27who has the second-highest
41:28career average
41:29in terms of
41:29playoff points per game,
41:31only behind MJ
41:32at over 32 points per game.
41:34That's not overly surprising
41:36in the superstar
41:37and the playoff performer
41:38that is Luka.
41:39I do think it is fascinating
41:41that Luka Doncic's number
41:42is nearly 30 bucks shorter
41:44than that of LeBron James
41:47at 55-to-1.
41:49I understand LeBron
41:50is 40 years old.
41:52I get all of that.
41:53Still, it's just wild
41:54to see that disparity
41:55by nearly 30 bucks.
41:5726-to-1 on Doncic,
41:5855-to-1 on LeBron.
42:00Yeah, it is.
42:01And that's why I left him
42:02out of that equation
42:03because you're saying
42:03there is another superstar
42:04on that team
42:05that does have the capability
42:06to play, if not as good as
42:08or better than Luka Doncic.
42:09But if there was a favorite,
42:10it would be Luka.
42:11The surprise point,
42:12though, is not Luka 26-to-1,
42:14LeBron 30-to-1, right?
42:15It's that LeBron James
42:16is way down that list
42:17as you go.
42:18Now, if you do want
42:19to get a little bit crafty
42:20and buying into
42:21the New York Knicks,
42:22it does feel like
42:23the one guy that can rise
42:25to the occasion
42:25would be Jalen Brunson
42:27at a 45-to-1 price
42:29at that point.
42:29But again,
42:30there's a lot of superstars.
42:31Carl Anthony Towns
42:31on the team,
42:32O.J. Ananobi,
42:33a lot of other guys
42:33that can sort of mix in.
42:34So we're having fun
42:35sliding it down.
42:36Anthony Edwards,
42:3738-to-1,
42:38if he carries Minnesota.
42:39So there's that.
42:40But for me,
42:41it just looks like
42:41not outsmarting yourself
42:43at all.
42:44Hey, Jalen Brown,
42:4524-to-1.
42:45Hey, Celtics won.
42:46It was Tatum all along.
42:47Or taking Tatum
42:48at plus 250
42:49when the Celtics
42:50aren't that far below
42:51as a team.
42:51And then Jalen Brown
42:52doing it again
42:53and winning that MVP.
42:54That would be cold-blooded
42:56at that point
42:57if that happened again.
42:57Indeed, DRS.
42:59Completely opposite
43:00from a Finals MVP conversation
43:02or the playoff prices.
43:04We look at how
43:05the lottery
43:06could be decided
43:07in just a few weeks.
43:09The worst records
43:10in the NBA.
43:11The bottom six.
43:12The Jazz end
43:13with the worst record.
43:14But of course,
43:15to de-incentivize taking,
43:17we've got three teams
43:18at a plus 500 price
43:20to win that number one
43:21overall pick
43:22and perhaps
43:22the Cooper Flag Lottery
43:24at 14%.
43:25Jazz, Wizards, Hornets,
43:28DRS for you.
43:29The Sixers need
43:30a top six protected
43:317-1.
43:33Fifth best price
43:33to have that number one
43:34overall selection.
43:36Hopefully just staying
43:36in the top six
43:37of the draft order.
43:39Ah, things are looking good.
43:40Ping pong balls
43:41bouncing around.
43:42Could land at number one.
43:43McCain comes back
43:44last year.
43:45You're having such a great start
43:46as a rookie
43:47for the Philadelphia 76ers.
43:48You add Cooper Flag,
43:49a Duke teammate.
43:50Maybe that's in the works.
43:52Maybe the planets
43:54are aligning
43:54for the Sixers.
43:55If you like it.
43:57Now it's hour three.
43:58The long-awaited
44:00start to hour number three.
44:02Our third and final live
44:04right here on a Monday morning
44:05on the Early Line
44:06on Sports Grid.
44:07He is Donnie Wright's side.
44:08I am Ben Stevens.
44:09One more hour to go
44:11and yet a ton to get to.
44:13With the host
44:13of Pro Baseball Today,
44:15we'll look at a new week
44:16beginning around MLB.
44:18And we'll do it
44:19with the other host
44:19of Pro Baseball Today,
44:21TV Tom Vecchio,
44:22for his prop perspective
44:24to start a new week
44:25on this Monday
44:26a little bit later on.
44:28One final look
44:28at Augusta National Golf Club
44:30in the 2025 Masters Tournament.
44:32A historic
44:33and dramatic Sunday.
44:35One we have not often seen
44:37at Augusta
44:38that ends
44:39with a career grand slam
44:40in the first ever
44:42green jacket
44:42for Rory McIlroy.
44:44Our guy,
44:45Dubsy.
44:46Dubsy Anderson
44:46will join us
44:47bright and early
44:47on this Monday
44:48for one final look
44:50back at the 2025 Masters
44:52in his final reactions.
44:55DRS,
44:55so much to get to here
44:56in this third
44:57and final hour.
44:58A day off
44:59from action in the NBA
45:00before we get to play
45:01internee games
45:02on a Tuesday.
45:04So a lot of baseball
45:05to handicap with you,
45:06my friend.
45:07Yeah,
45:07some good games
45:08on the card today.
45:09Pitching matchups,
45:10maybe some warmer temperatures
45:11in the Northeast here
45:12as we wait
45:13and maybe it'll rain out
45:14in situations.
45:15But each and every day
45:16that we go
45:17in the month of April
45:17for Major League Baseball,
45:18more numbers get accumulated
45:20and makes it easier
45:21to handicap the season
45:22once we start to get
45:23to that sweet spot
45:24early May
45:24right into midsummer.
45:26I can't wait
45:26for that to happen,
45:27but it's fun.
45:27It's fun seeing things
45:28play out on a day-to-day basis.
45:30Everybody seems like
45:30they're in it outside
45:31like the Colorado Rockies
45:32at this point right now.
45:33So we'll see how things play out,
45:35but I'm excited.
45:35The NBA playoffs,
45:36we're ready to go
45:37this weekend here.
45:38New week,
45:38new money.
45:39It's the way it is.
45:39New hour,
45:40new money, Ben.
45:42Hey, ODRS,
45:43I will just say
45:44it does kind of seem
45:46like you are starting
45:47some anti-Rocky slander
45:49here early in the season
45:51for MLB's worst team
45:52at 3-12.
45:54What?
45:55You see the City Connect
45:56uniforms for the Rockies?
45:57Let me understand this.
46:00If you show me
46:02a shirt or a uniform
46:03on the City Connect,
46:05like Philadelphia,
46:06like, oh,
46:07it says Philly.
46:07That's connected to the city.
46:09Like, I don't know
46:10what we're doing
46:10to put ridiculous uniforms
46:12out there.
46:13And thank goodness
46:13that, you know what,
46:14I rip the Yankees a lot.
46:15Love the fact that
46:16they're like,
46:16City Connect?
46:17Yeah, City Disconnect.
46:18We're not doing
46:19anything like that.
46:20Like, if you were
46:20to make a jersey
46:21like for the Colorado Rockies,
46:22purple and what,
46:24because that's what
46:25your team was?
46:25Like, just put a mountain
46:27and a skyscraper
46:28in the background
46:28and be done with it.
46:29If the Yankees
46:30had a City Connect,
46:31just put the Empire
46:31State Building
46:32on the jersey.
46:33City Connect uniforms
46:34have no connection
46:35to the city whatsoever.
46:37None of them.
46:37We, oh, okay.
46:39Now, Mr. Fashion Police,
46:41we have seen some
46:42really bad City Connect
46:43jerseys in Major League Baseball,
46:45City Defied jerseys
46:47or whatever they call it
46:48in the NBA.
46:49And you can hate
46:50on the Rockies
46:51for a lot of things.
46:52I think the City Connect
46:54jerseys are absolutely gorgeous.
46:57Sunset Obre Vista,
46:59a spot inspired
47:00by one of our nation's
47:02great mountain ranges,
47:03the Rocky Mountains.
47:04And it has Rockies on it.
47:06It is very clearly defined
47:08which Major League Baseball
47:09organization
47:10we are talking about here
47:11and what exactly
47:13is the theme
47:14behind these jerseys.
47:15Again,
47:16I think you can hate
47:17on the Rocks
47:17for a lot of things.
47:18How about that?
47:19Yeah.
47:19How about that?
47:20That would have been
47:20a better City Connect jersey.
47:22Put John Elway's face
47:23on the jersey of the Rockies.
47:24Like, okay,
47:25let's connect it to the city
47:26at least at that point.
47:27Now, I think we need
47:28our producer, Joe Frizzo,
47:30to weigh in here.
47:30I feel like these were
47:32pretty resoundingly enjoyed.
47:34When they were released.
47:37Yeah.
47:37Normally,
47:38City Connect jerseys are off.
47:40I don't even get a start
47:40on the Mets ones
47:41from this past year
47:42that were just gray.
47:43What is the Mets?
47:43Instead of NYC.
47:44What is it?
47:45I don't know about this year.
47:46Last year, atrocious.
47:48A little bit of Grimace purple,
47:49though, I guess.
47:50Whatever happened at Grimace?
47:52Do you see the Giants one,
47:53by the way?
47:54Do you see the Giants one
47:55they put out this year?
47:56Like, I don't even have any.
47:57I'd like City Connect.
47:58Pull that up.
47:59Like, we got time.
48:00We got plenty of time.
48:00We got a whole hour here.
48:01No big deal.
48:02We got plenty of time.
48:02Pull the one for the Giants
48:03new City Connect jersey.
48:05What is the connection to
48:06what's the connection
48:07to San Francisco on that?
48:09That's why I call them
48:10the City Disconnect jerseys
48:11that these teams put out.
48:12It doesn't make it.
48:13Half of them make zero sense
48:15whatsoever.
48:16Like, hey,
48:17I'm going to buy that jersey.
48:18Why would you buy that jersey
48:19as a fan?
48:20Makes no sense.
48:22I think we're getting close
48:23to the time of year
48:24where we got to fill
48:25a couple of segments.
48:26I feel like a fashion police
48:27is coming at some point
48:29this week,
48:29early for this Major League Baseball
48:31campaign,
48:32at least would be my thought.
48:34The Giants have not had
48:35great City Connect jerseys
48:37throughout their history,
48:39but San Francisco off
48:40to a great start,
48:4111-4.
48:42Donnie, enough baseball.
48:43We'll talk that
48:44in just a matter of moments.
48:45Let's hear from the people.
48:46Regular season in the NBA,
48:48now done.
48:49How are you feeling
48:50about the postseason?
48:51How are you feeling
48:52about who's going
48:52to cut down the nets
48:53as an NBA champion
48:55and hoist that Larry O'Brien trophy?
48:57It was our question
48:58for all of you
48:59and feed the public.
49:01Which team
49:09is the best bet
49:09to win the NBA championship
49:11throughout this postseason
49:12in 2025?
49:15At SportsGrid
49:16on Twitter.
49:17Is it the Thunder,
49:18the Celtics,
49:19the Cavaliers?
49:21Are three teams,
49:22of course,
49:22at a 5-1 price
49:23or better?
49:24Are three teams,
49:25of course,
49:26at a triple-digit price?
49:27Are three teams,
49:28of course,
49:29at even a number
49:30shorter than 17-1?
49:32Are three teams,
49:33of course,
49:33that won more than 52 games
49:35this season?
49:36Or is it another team
49:39around the association,
49:41maybe with a couple
49:42of sprinkles
49:43on some pretty steep prices?
49:45DRS,
49:46that was the question.
49:47Again,
49:47at SportsGrid
49:48on Twitter,
49:48Thunder plus 180,
49:50Celtics plus 190,
49:51Cavs plus 490,
49:53or another
49:54in the Boston Celtics,
49:57the reigning NBA champs,
49:58getting most
49:59of the public love
50:00at about 38%
50:02of the vote,
50:02which way to
50:03Donnie Wright's side vote
50:04in the fade-the-public poll.
50:06That does make sense
50:07that the Celtics
50:08are the plus 190 price.
50:09Most people just waiting
50:10on an NBA season
50:11saying it doesn't matter,
50:12and the odds makers
50:13basically tell us
50:14that the NBA regular season
50:15doesn't matter.
50:16The fans' approach
50:17to the regular season
50:18and handicapping
50:18on a night-to-night basis
50:19tells us that nobody cares.
50:21But now,
50:22once we start caring,
50:23the Celtics,
50:24when healthy,
50:25should be the most talented
50:26overall team in the NBA
50:27and no longer
50:28looking to climb the mountain
50:29like,
50:29oh, Tatum and Brown.
50:30They can't get it done.
50:31No, they got it done last year,
50:32and they're healthy,
50:33ready for round number two.
50:34I did still vote
50:35for the Thunder
50:36because I duly,
50:36truly believe
50:37they are the best team
50:38and they will have
50:39home-field advantage,
50:40which is a big deal.
50:41And Ben has pointed out,
50:42and properly so,
50:43the Celtics do have
50:44an unbelievable road record.
50:45Don't care.
50:46Winning at home
50:46in the playoffs
50:47is paramount
50:48to good basketball
50:49and great basketball teams,
50:50and the Thunder are that.
50:52I do like the Cavaliers.
50:53There's a legitimate chance for me.
50:54They have home-court advantage
50:55and can make it
50:56to the NBA Finals,
50:57which they then will not
50:58have home-court advantage.
50:59It was that simple for me.
51:00But I can't fault
51:01the public today, Ben,
51:02for saying 38%
51:03for the Celtics
51:04to win the NBA championship
51:05because why?
51:06They did it last year,
51:07and we all know
51:08the NBA season,
51:09for all intents and purposes,
51:11really is meaningless.
51:12It's about setting yourself up
51:15to be right back
51:16in that spot.
51:17Does Boston have
51:18home-floor advantage?
51:19No.
51:19In the Eastern Conference?
51:20No.
51:21Do they have the best record
51:22this year?
51:23No.
51:23Did they fall short
51:24of their preseason win total?
51:26I'm pretty sure they did.
51:27It was 64-and-a-half,
51:2963-and-a-half,
51:30if I'm not mistaken.
51:31Do they still have
51:32a sensational year
51:34in Beantown?
51:35No doubt about it.
51:36Do they still have
51:36a great outlook
51:37to win the Eastern Conference
51:39and be back
51:39in that NBA championship set
51:41without a shadow
51:42of a doubt as well?
51:44So it makes a ton of sense.
51:46Donnie,
51:46this was the expected outcome.
51:47This was the anticipated
51:49destination for Boston.
51:51They were the NBA championship
51:52favorites for three-quarters
51:54of this year,
51:55and that includes
51:56the preseason,
51:57the offseason,
51:58and the summer
51:58after they won
52:00championship banner
52:01number 18 in Boston.
52:04But the difference is,
52:05in my opinion,
52:06this time around,
52:07is Oklahoma City
52:08should be able
52:09to make some noise.
52:10And I think the Thunder
52:11are in a great position
52:12as the one seed
52:13in the Western Conference
52:14and with home floor advantage
52:15the entirety of the postseason,
52:17including an NBA finals matchup
52:19against either Boston
52:20or Cleveland
52:21or anybody else,
52:23OKC will have
52:24that home floor advantage.
52:26Again, Donnie,
52:26the expected destination
52:27for the Celtics
52:28with the back-up
52:29and championship pedigree
52:31to prove it.
52:31OKC doesn't have that.
52:33But I still believe
52:34in the Thunder.
52:34I voted for the Thunder
52:35as well.
52:36Now, I do think
52:38there is a better way
52:39to play those places
52:41than plus 180
52:42or plus 190.
52:43I think there could be
52:44a sprinkle perhaps
52:45on both, Donnie,
52:46OKC to beat Boston
52:48in the NBA finals
52:49at 5-1,
52:51Boston to beat
52:51Oklahoma City
52:52at plus 550.
52:55Yeah, it does make
52:55some sense that way.
52:56You're right about it too.
52:57And also when we're talking
52:58about those fan favorites
52:59as opposed to betting favorites
53:00there, for me,
53:01it just might be
53:01the Rockets out west
53:02and the Cavaliers
53:03in the east here.
53:04We'll see how it plays out
53:04and see how it goes
53:05at this point.
53:05But OKC,
53:06boy, that would be interesting
53:07if they did win
53:08the NBA championship.
53:10Tanking for the win, baby.
53:12I love it.
53:12I love where this is going.
53:14Welcome back
53:15to the Early Line
53:15live right here
53:16on this Monday
53:17to start off
53:18a new week
53:19with a fresh start
53:20and some new money
53:21as Donnie right side
53:22would say.
53:22It's the prop perspective
53:24on this Monday
53:25with TV Tom Vecchio
53:27of Sports Grid
53:28live right here
53:29on the Early Line.
53:30Tom, as always,
53:31we appreciate the time.
53:33Thank you for being here
53:33to start off a new week.
53:35Thanks for having me.
53:36We're coming off,
53:37I would say,
53:37an exciting day
53:38of just sports
53:39all around,
53:40obviously.
53:41Masters and insane
53:42finish there.
53:43Good day of baseball.
53:44I'm not going to say
53:44it was great.
53:45Some things that Donnie
53:45and I missed on
53:46when it comes to
53:47pro baseball today.
53:48Why I shouldn't say
53:48I missed on things.
53:49Players just didn't
53:50come through.
53:50Riley Green,
53:51what are you doing
53:51at the plate?
53:52Get some hits.
53:52Yeah, come on, Riley.
53:54Let's dive into today's slate.
53:56I thought you were
53:57about to say
53:57I shouldn't say
53:58I missed out on things
53:59and about to throw
54:00your co-host on PBG
54:01right off of that
54:02moving bus.
54:03Even if it wasn't true,
54:04I would have loved
54:05if he would have done that.
54:06But, you know,
54:06he's getting me.
54:07He's getting the whole
54:07point of this network.
54:08Listen,
54:09Donnie and I came through
54:10both with our dogs
54:11of the day yesterday.
54:12The Giants and the Blue Jays
54:13both came through
54:14with wins plus money.
54:15Keep prices there.
54:16Come on.
54:16Really putting out
54:17a lot there.
54:18All cash is the same.
54:19I'm just kidding.
54:20Way to cash a plus money ticket
54:22on both the Blue Jays
54:23and the Giants yesterday.
54:25Vecchio,
54:26as you alluded to,
54:27regular season finale
54:28Sunday in the NBA.
54:3082 games for all 30 clubs
54:31in the book.
54:32Postseason on the horizon.
54:35We know what the standings
54:36look like.
54:36We know our play
54:37in tournament matchups.
54:38We know a couple
54:39of our opening round sets
54:41around the actual
54:42NBA playoffs.
54:43And now the regular season
54:44is done.
54:46We look at those
54:46NBA championship odds.
54:48It's been a similar story
54:49for the final few months
54:51of this regular season.
54:52Oklahoma City,
54:54the odds on favorite
54:55as the one seed out West.
54:56Our reigning champs,
54:57the Boston Celtics,
54:59expected to be in the NBA
55:00finals all year long.
55:02Despite being the two seed
55:03in the Eastern Conference,
55:05the odds on favorite
55:06to win the East.
55:07And can that number one seed
55:08in the Eastern Conference
55:09actually be a challenger?
55:12That's the Cleveland Cavaliers
55:13at a plus 490 number.
55:15Those three teams,
55:16Vecchio,
55:165-1 or better.
55:18Everybody else,
55:1917-1 or longer.
55:22What is your assessment
55:23of the NBA championship odds
55:25at the end of the regular season
55:26before the postseason starts?
55:29Like, as you said,
55:30this is where we've been
55:30over the past few months.
55:32And like,
55:32there's no real standout.
55:34I will say that
55:35as someone that has a ticket
55:37on the Nuggets
55:37to win the West,
55:38not an NBA title,
55:39just to win the West,
55:40I'm kind of intrigued
55:41where they are.
55:42Like,
55:42they're dealing with
55:44this question mark
55:44where they fire Mike Malone.
55:46They're into the playoffs.
55:47They certainly have
55:48a very tough series
55:49in the first round
55:49going up against the Clippers.
55:50But if they were
55:51to get past that,
55:52and obviously we assume
55:53OKC gets past
55:54their first round matchup,
55:55like,
55:56that is a very,
55:57very interesting
55:57second round matchup.
55:59OKC,
56:00this young upstart team
56:01that is finally trying
56:02to make a deep push
56:03into the playoffs
56:03versus this,
56:04you know,
56:04veteran team in the Nuggets
56:06that have done before,
56:07but we have this,
56:08like,
56:08unknown factor
56:09because they fired
56:09their head coach.
56:11If the Nuggets
56:11were to win that series,
56:12hypothetically,
56:13I'm not saying they will,
56:14it'd be a seven-game series
56:15if they were to do so.
56:16The West is completely
56:17up for grabs at that point.
56:19I don't expect the Rockets
56:20to win,
56:20you know,
56:21a second-round series.
56:22They could even be upset
56:23by the Warriors,
56:24and then if we were
56:25to see Warriors,
56:26Lakers,
56:26Nuggets,
56:27as some of the
56:28final three teams,
56:29the Nuggets at that price
56:30would be amazing to have.
56:32If we take a look
56:34at the NBA
56:34as it does start
56:35the postseason here,
56:36different ways to bet,
56:37certainly different
56:37handicappers have
56:38different advantages
56:39that they'd like to use.
56:40How do you approach
56:40the play-in series here,
56:42Tom,
56:42with these teams lining up
56:43where some of them
56:44are win or go home,
56:45some of them are loser,
56:47I get a second chance.
56:48How are you approaching this?
56:50I'm just,
56:50I'm,
56:51I said this yesterday
56:51or I should say last night
56:53to Adam and Brady
56:54on In Game Live.
56:55I'm inclined to just
56:56take the points
56:57and take the under
56:57in every single matchup.
56:59I just,
56:59low-scoring games,
57:00give me the points.
57:01If it's five points,
57:02like it's only one point
57:03for Miami,
57:03I understand that,
57:04but especially when it comes
57:05to the Grizzlies,
57:06that's sitting around
57:07seven points or so.
57:08If the Warriors get out
57:09to a hot start,
57:10won't be a surprise.
57:11If the Grizzlies jump
57:11to a live line of like
57:1210 and 11,
57:13that's where I want to jump in.
57:14Like these games should be
57:15lower scoring and closer.
57:16Give me the points,
57:17give me the unders.
57:18You are seeing those totals
57:20work their way down.
57:21We will see that be
57:22a continuous theme
57:23throughout the NBA postseason.
57:25Golden State,
57:26a seven-point favorite,
57:27Sacramento,
57:28a five-point favorite,
57:29and our two Western Conference
57:31play in tourney games.
57:32Orlando,
57:33five-point favorite,
57:34and then basically
57:35a pick-em in Chicago
57:36on Wednesday night
57:37between the Bulls
57:38and the Heat.
57:39It does not have to be
57:40just to play in tourney games,
57:42Vecchio,
57:42to start those postseason bets
57:44around the association.
57:45We've got a couple
57:46of opening round series,
57:47two in each conference,
57:48of course,
57:49that have been determined.
57:51Let's start with
57:51the Eastern Conference,
57:53our 3-6 split,
57:54the New York Knicks,
57:55and the Detroit Pistons.
57:57How competitive
57:58do you expect
57:59this series to be,
58:00and what might that mean
58:01for game number one?
58:04I think the Pistons
58:05can give the Knicks
58:06a run for their money.
58:07I'm not saying the Pistons
58:07are going to upset them,
58:09but I think this will be
58:09a little bit tougher
58:10than people will realize
58:11for the Knicks.
58:12You know,
58:13we saw the Pistons
58:13give them trouble
58:14in the regular season.
58:15They were 3-1
58:15against the Knicks
58:16in the regular season.
58:17Granted,
58:17some of these games
58:17happened in November,
58:19December.
58:20The last game of the season,
58:21you know,
58:21was one of the first games
58:22back for Jalen Brunson.
58:23We have to take everything
58:23with a grain of salt,
58:24but I like the Pistons
58:25to keep this series competitive,
58:27and that starts off
58:28with game one,
58:28so I like the Pistons
58:29plus seven in game one.
58:30It was six and a half.
58:32Yeah, it's moving up to seven.
58:33It is what it is.
58:34I think that's where
58:34they take things.
58:35People don't realize
58:36that the Pistons
58:36were top ten in the league
58:38when it comes to
58:39defensive efficiency this year.
58:40A team that lost
58:41a million games
58:42over the past two seasons
58:43are now one of the better,
58:44I'm not going to say the best,
58:45one of the better
58:46defensive teams.
58:47I think they give
58:47the Knicks some trouble,
58:48and the Knicks
58:49have no depth scoring.
58:51If Brunson and Cat
58:52don't get things going,
58:53where's the scoring
58:54going to come from
58:55on the Knicks?
58:57How about this series
58:58coming up here,
58:58anticipating on Saturday night.
59:00That's the Minnesota Timberwolves
59:01and the Los Angeles Lakers.
59:03Superstars starting up
59:04in Tinseltown.
59:05If we're looking at
59:06that series, Tom,
59:07any angles that you like here?
59:09Yeah, let's just play it simple.
59:11The entire series
59:12over five and a half games,
59:13it is sitting at minus 158.
59:15I know that's a little bit
59:16of juice for some people,
59:17but I really do like that.
59:19They split the season series
59:202-2.
59:21We have to remember
59:21that the first three matchups,
59:23the Lakers did have
59:23Anthony Davis.
59:25They didn't have one
59:25for the last one.
59:26Again, we have to take things
59:27with grain of salt
59:27because these games
59:28happened months ago.
59:29But if we get to the point
59:30where one team's up 3-1
59:32in the series,
59:33and we're approaching
59:34that fifth game,
59:34we can hedge out of this.
59:36We can still secure profit
59:37or just secure coming out
59:38net even.
59:40So I do like over five and a half.
59:42I think the series ends
59:424-2 in favor of the Lakers.