Hazine ve Maliye Bakanı Mehmet Şimşek, 'Avrupa Birliği, ABD ve Japonya küresel imalat endüstrisinde zemin kaybetti. Diğerleri kaybederken, Çin kazanım elde etti. Çin küresel zemini domine etmekte' dedi. https://www.timeturk.com/ekonomi/mehmet-simsek-digerleri-kaybederken-cin-kazandi/video-1809172
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00:00Türkiye
00:04I hope you find it useful
00:07I'll go through a number of slides
00:10and towards the end I'll be happy to entertain questions
00:14so you know
00:17it will be a two-way traffic here
00:20so that's my outline
00:23Global Macro Challenges
00:25and how Turkey is positioned
00:29we have a program that is aimed at reducing vulnerabilities
00:33building resilience
00:35but also putting Turkey back on a high growth trajectory
00:41and finally how do we leverage Turkey's regional position
00:46in the current climate
00:48we are at the VUCA moment for the world
00:52VUCA is an acronym used by United States Army
00:57it stands for volatility
01:01uncertainty
01:03complexity
01:05and ambiguity
01:07I guess
01:09the last
01:11couple of weeks
01:13have provided
01:15much of this
01:16just look at the global economic policy uncertainty index
01:21it is almost at peak
01:23this actually is as of
01:25it doesn't reflect much volatility
01:29doesn't reflect much uncertainty
01:31chances are it's higher
01:34there is actually a volatility index
01:38and that's also peaked recently
01:42what is driving this
01:46it's largely
01:48trade protectionism
01:50which has become something of a new normal
01:54if you look at the number of trade restrictions
01:58in particular post global financial crisis
02:02it has gone up by almost 11 folds
02:06and this does not yet reflect
02:10the recent restrictions
02:13the recent tariffs
02:15this is as of end of 2024
02:18if the current state of affairs prevail
02:23chances are global growth will be significantly lower
02:29than what it has been
02:31or relative to the base case scenario
02:33there is a study by the IMF
02:35which foresees a 7% decline in global GDP
02:43on the back of this trade fragmentation
02:47now 7% is a big number
02:49it is as big as Germany and France GDP combined
02:55so these are big numbers
02:59why?
03:01why trade wars?
03:04why all these protectionist tendencies?
03:07it's really simple
03:09you know European Union, United States, Japan
03:15all these major industrial countries or regions
03:21they've lost a lot of ground
03:23in global manufacturing
03:25as you can see here
03:27China has gained
03:31obviously everyone else has lost
03:35China now dominates global manufacturing
03:39China also is now the main trading partner
03:43almost everyone around the world
03:47look at this chart
03:49China versus United States
03:50or China versus EU
03:52compared to a quarter century ago
03:55now most countries have China
03:59as their main trading partners
04:02so that's really what is driving it
04:06how about Turkey?
04:08how vulnerable is Turkey
04:11to trade protectionism?
04:14we believe that
04:16we're going to be relatively more resilient
04:19so let me make the case for it
04:21first of all
04:23if you look at exports of goods and services
04:27as a percent of GDP
04:29and compare that with per capita GDP
04:32as you can see here
04:34we are relatively
04:36not you know
04:39I mean compared to other countries
04:41our dependency on exports
04:43in terms of maintaining our growth
04:45prosperity
04:47compared to many other countries
04:49it's lower
04:50meaning
04:51exports is not the main driver
04:54of Turkish economy
04:56in fact
04:58historically
04:59net exports have been a drag on growth
05:03rather than being a driver of growth
05:08looking at the other way around
05:10this chart here
05:12if you look at final consumption investments
05:14meaning domestic demand
05:16relative to per capita GDP
05:18as you can see
05:19is the main driver
05:20of Turkish economy
05:22so that's really what drives growth
05:27and therefore
05:29Turkey
05:30is less exposed
05:32to a more inward looking world
05:35that doesn't mean you don't get affected
05:38it just means
05:40relatively speaking
05:41you get affected less
05:43so that's the summary
05:45another
05:47point
05:48is that
05:49we are
05:51better positioned
05:52to navigate
05:54protectionism
05:55why?
05:56well
05:57first of all
05:58we are mainly focused
06:00on our immediate neighborhoods
06:02where we have strong
06:04geographic
06:05cultural
06:06historic
06:07links
06:08as well as
06:10rule-based
06:11trade
06:13frameworks
06:14look at this chart here
06:1662% of
06:18Turkey's exports
06:19go to
06:20countries
06:21that we have
06:22free trade agreements
06:23so unless
06:24they walk away
06:25from these agreements
06:26our trade
06:28I mean
06:2962% of our trade
06:31I mean exports
06:32is rule-based
06:34and I don't see
06:36that happening
06:37because
06:38one of the main
06:39trading partners
06:40of course
06:41is European Union
06:42and European Union
06:43continues to advocate
06:45rule-based
06:46multilateralism
06:48therefore
06:49the risk there
06:50is relatively low
06:51for the foreseeable
06:52future
06:53and other countries
06:54are predominantly
06:55again
06:56in the immediate
06:57neighborhood
06:58so
07:00as you can see
07:02almost
07:0460
07:0562% of our exports
07:06are relatively
07:07insulated
07:08against risk
07:09against risk
07:10of fragmentation
07:11again
07:13at the time
07:14of
07:15global
07:16fragmentation
07:17you
07:18tend to
07:19look at
07:20antidotes
07:21you know
07:22fixes
07:23and
07:24those fixes
07:25usually come
07:26in the form of
07:27regional
07:28integration
07:29you know
07:30as they say
07:31you rise
07:32with your neighborhood
07:33you fall
07:34you decline
07:35with your neighborhood
07:36that's why
07:37we are at Diplomacy
07:38Forum
07:39that's why
07:40Turkey
07:41genuinely
07:42wants
07:43a stable
07:44peaceful
07:45and prospering
07:46neighborhood
07:47why?
07:48well because
07:49it's in our interest
07:50we would benefit
07:51most
07:52because
07:53we are a big
07:54export of
07:55services
07:57whether it is
07:58tourism
07:59whether it's
08:00medical tourism
08:01whether it is
08:02education
08:03so
08:04we are
08:05better positioned
08:06in the region
08:07we are
08:08the region's
08:09main
08:10manufacturing base
08:11there you go
08:13so that's why
08:14Turkey
08:15is now
08:16investing
08:17in enhancing
08:18connectivity
08:19within the region
08:21connectivity
08:22matters
08:24so
08:25Turkey
08:26is part of
08:27middle corridor
08:28linking
08:29China
08:30to Europe
08:31Turkey
08:32now
08:33is helping
08:34build
08:35another corridor
08:36called
08:37New Development Road
08:38all the way
08:39from
08:40Iraqi port
08:41to
08:42again
08:43Turkey
08:44connecting it
08:45all the way
08:46to London
08:47and to Beijing
08:48because
08:49these are
08:50some of the
08:51most
08:52effective
08:53most cost
08:54effective
08:55linkages
08:56so
08:57we will
08:58continue
08:59to
09:00invest
09:01in
09:02connectivity
09:03in
09:04peace
09:05in
09:06security
09:07and
09:08in
09:09prosperity
09:10of the region
09:11because
09:12we would
09:13benefit
09:14most
09:15another
09:16major
09:17global problem
09:18is
09:19rising global
09:20indebtness