Categoría
🗞
NoticiasTranscripción
00:00We're looking at 80% reduction if this challenge between, if this tariff escalation between China and the U.S. continues.
00:08It will result in an 80% reduction between China and U.S. trade.
00:14And the ripple effect of that across the board can be catastrophic because so many countries, we're no longer in a world where you have one way trade.
00:26We're talking about 40% of goods that move are intermediate goods, which means that everything along the supply chain is going to be impacted by the change in the trade relationship.
00:39Yes, I agree that tariffs could have a much more harmful impact than the removal of aid.
00:47The calculations that we currently had up to before the 90-day pause is that it would result in a fall by 2040 of 0.7% in overall global GDP.
01:00And then also the statistics are a little different.
01:04It's now between 3% and 7% overall reduction in global trade as a whole, which is huge.
01:11So the implications of that are wide-ranging.
01:15The implications for developing countries as a whole is also going to be difficult.
01:21I think one of the areas that we also need to look at is how will it impact the fragmentation across the board,
01:28the geopolitical repositioning that is going to take place as countries seek alternative markets,
01:34as they seek to look at how are we going to survive, how are we going to manage this change, and how are we going to pivot.
01:43These are the kinds of challenges.
01:45When you impose 37% tariffs on Bangladesh and they lose $3.3 billion per year,
01:54it's a fundamental shift in everything that they have worked towards and in their economic base
02:03that led to them being so well-developed that they could graduate from LDC status.
02:15Thank you.