The onus is on the Modi government to decide its course of action after US President Donald Trump announced 27 per cent reciprocal tariffs on India.
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00:00Good evening, hello and welcome, you're with the news today, your prime time destination,
00:05news, news makers, talking points, the big talking point.
00:09Donald Trump has launched a tariff war.
00:12How will these tariffs impact India is the big question and how should India now be responding
00:19to what is being described as the biggest trade war of the 21st century?
00:26That's our top focus.
00:27Let's tell you the nine headlines at nine tonight.
00:31US President Donald Trump slaps 27% tariffs on imports from India.
00:37India says carefully examining the implications, Commerce Department seeks feedback from exporters.
00:50Trump tariffs wreak havoc, wreak havoc on Wall Street, US stocks plunge dramatically,
00:56heavyweight companies like Apple, NVIDIA, Nike suffer big losses due to their dependence
01:01on nations like China and Vietnam.
01:04Marathon box debate underway in Rajya Sabha, leader of the house JP Nadda accuses the opposition
01:12of spreading fear among Muslims, Congress hits back, says the bill aims to divide society.
01:23Two disheartened leaders quit the Janata Dal United in Bihar after the party decides
01:27to back their ally over the Vak Amendment Act in Parliament.
01:32They say this is not the party that Nitish Kumar built.
01:40Congress chief Malik Arjun Kharge dismisses allegations of land grab by BJP MP Anurag
01:45Thakur demands an apology from Thakur to prove the charges or resign from Parliament.
01:51All 33 sitting judges of the Supreme Court agreed to disclose their assets by publishing
01:59the same on the top court's website.
02:01It comes days after piles of burning cash was found at Delhi High Court judge's house.
02:09Supreme Court upholds Calcutta High Court ruling to scrap hiring of over 25,000 teachers,
02:14the Bengal Chief Minister says standing firm behind the sacked teachers, BJP asks Mamata
02:19Banerjee to step down.
02:24Big setback to the Telangana government after the Supreme Court's days felling of trees
02:27on a Hyderabad University land.
02:30The students' union launch hunger strike against the Telangana government to protect they say
02:36the city's lungs.
02:40Big buzz over a Modi-Unis meet on the sidelines of the BIMSTEC summit in Bangkok.
02:45This comes after both leaders were seen sitting together at the official dinner in Thailand.
02:49India and Bangladesh looking to broke a peace.
03:03The story that's breaking today, it is now turning out to be a rather woeful and turbulent
03:12Thursday.
03:13Donald Trump's tariffs have now spooked world markets.
03:16The Dow has just plunged nearly 1500 points in early trade or 3.4%.
03:22The Nasdaq is down by more than 5%.
03:26Europe's benchmark has index has fallen by 2.34%.
03:30Japan's Nikkei index has sunk by 2.77%.
03:35Hong Kong's benchmark Hang Seng index has fallen by 1.52%.
03:40So across the world, we are seeing complete havoc being wreaked at the moment.
03:45Let me first go across to Siddharth Zarabi, Managing Editor at Business Today to just
03:50get a sense of what we are seeing happening around us.
03:53Siddharth, it seems a bloodbath at the US markets in particular.
03:58They've all reacted negatively to Donald Trump's tariff announcements.
04:03How is all this playing out?
04:05How are you seeing this all playing out?
04:06Is it global markets now spooked by what Donald Trump has done?
04:11Clearly, this is the first evidence and of course, very costly evidence for the self-goal
04:17that Donald Trump has scored for the US economy and for US companies and brands, which have
04:24dominated global trade and commerce for decades.
04:28What you are seeing on the Dow, what you're seeing on the Nasdaq and also the ripple effect
04:32that you will see across the global markets is very clearly on account of what will happen
04:40to corporate earnings and the ability of companies to do business in the manner that they did.
04:46Rajdeep, just one quick example, Nike, a brand that is known across the world and Vietnam,
04:5446% tariff hit on Vietnam.
04:57Nike employs, by all accounts, around 450,000 people in Vietnam.
05:04It has 70 plus factories in that small nation manufacturing apparel and almost 13, 14 companies
05:12manufacturing shoes.
05:14That stock has dropped like nine pins.
05:18So clearly the impact is on US companies, US producers, initial rounds, reports of layoffs
05:27by some US companies have started.
05:29And this is even before countries in the European Union, China and some other dominant countries
05:40begin to unveil their retaliatory tariffs.
05:42So the pain will be born first up and right up front by the United States, Rajdeep.
05:50Before I let you go, Siddharth, you used a word which struck in my mind, self-goal.
05:55Explain to our viewers why you believe what Donald Trump has done with these tariffs amounts
06:00to a self-goal.
06:03The United States has benefited over the last four decades by accessing global markets for
06:10its companies and produce, by moving out manufacturing into other economies, benefiting from lower
06:19cost of manufacturing in different economies and keeping prices of its products moderate
06:27for US citizens and also increasing choice.
06:31That is now sought to be upended.
06:33Forty years of trade policy is now sought to be upended by Donald Trump in four years.
06:41And this is just practically the third, fourth month of his tenure.
06:45The manner in which these tariffs have been calculated, not me, but noted economists are
06:51talking about the absurdity of the calculation.
06:54Lesotho has been hit by 50 percent tariffs.
06:58And you know, I think India is well placed relatively because 10 percent is the starting
07:03slab, go up to 60 percent plus for China.
07:06We are in between at 27 percent.
07:09Larry Summers, former treasury secretary, a globally respected name in the world of
07:15capital and economy, has said that this will cost 30 trillion dollars to the United States.
07:21So I think it is very clearly a self-goal.
07:24And just as I was walking into the show, Rajdeep, Raghuram Rajan's comments have also come out
07:30and he's used the word self-goal.
07:31Interesting.
07:33Great minds think alike.
07:34Raghuram Rajan and Siddharth Zarabi, both using that word self-goal there.
07:40OK, let's just tell you that the big points.
07:43Donald Trump has launched what the world believes is little more than a trade war now.
07:48Thirty four percent new tariffs on China take the total tariffs to 54 percent.
07:54Twenty seven percent tariff on India.
07:56Forty nine percent tariffs on Cambodia.
07:59Forty six percent on Vietnam.
08:01Ten percent minimum baseline tariff.
08:03A 25 percent tariff on foreign-made automobiles.
08:07So that hits automobiles across the world.
08:10And a national emergency, he says, is to be declared to tackle the 1.2 dollar trillion
08:16trade deficit.
08:17So average tariff on U.S. imports now will be the highest in more than 100 years.
08:23Donald Trump has declared April 2 as Liberation Day.
08:26The Dow has, as I said earlier, is down 3.76 percent, Nasdaq down 5.6 percent.
08:33It all started around 2 a.m.
08:35India time when Donald Trump decided that he was going to go on what is being described
08:42as a potential global tariff war.
08:46India, very, very tough, very, very tough.
08:50The prime minister just left.
08:52He's a great friend of mine.
08:53But I said, you're a friend of mine, but you're not treating us right.
08:57They charge us 52 percent.
08:59You have to understand, we charge them almost nothing for years and years.
09:02If you look at that, China, first row, China, 67 percent.
09:08That's tariffs charged to the USA, including currency manipulation and trade barriers.
09:15So so it's 67 percent.
09:17So we're going to be charging a discounted reciprocal tariff of 34 percent.
09:23In other words, they charge us, we charge them, we charge them less.
09:26So how can anybody be upset?
09:28They will be because we never charge anybody anything.
09:31But now we're going to charge.
09:33I call this kind reciprocal.
09:36This is not full reciprocal.
09:37This is kind reciprocal.
09:40But what we do is we cut it in half.
09:43We charge them.
09:44My answer is very simple.
09:45If they complain, if you want your tariff rate to be zero, then you build your product right
09:50here in America, because there is no tariff if you build your plant, your product in America.
09:57My fellow Americans, this is Liberation Day.
10:01Waiting for a long time.
10:05April 2nd, 2025 will forever be remembered as the day American industry was reborn,
10:12the day America's destiny was reclaimed, and the day that we began to make America wealthy
10:20again, going to make it wealthy, good and wealthy.
10:24For decades, our country has been looted, pillaged,
10:27raped and plundered by nations near and far, both friend and foe alike.
10:33American steelworkers, autoworkers, farmers and skilled craftsmen.
10:37We have a lot of them here with us today.
10:40They really suffered gravely.
10:42They watched in anguish as foreign leaders have stolen our jobs.
10:47Foreign cheaters have ransacked our factories and foreign scavengers have torn apart our
10:53once beautiful American dream.
10:55We had an American dream that you don't hear so much about.
10:58You did four years ago and you are now, but you don't too often.
11:02And for many years and decades, even you didn't hear too much about
11:06our country and its taxpayers have been ripped off for more than
11:1050 years, but it is not going to happen anymore.
11:14It's not going to happen.
11:18Donald Trump talking tough, talking of Liberation Day in the United States.
11:23Now, all of this has led to a global meltdown from Europe to Australia and Japan, South Korea,
11:28all of the leaders of those countries condemning US tariffs.
11:32Many of them have vowed to retaliate, treat tariffs against the United States,
11:36led by the European Union.
11:37China, which remains the elephant in the room and which is now facing the potential of more
11:43President Trump's announcement of universal tariffs on the whole world,
11:47including the European Union, is a major blow to the world economy.
11:54I deeply regret this choice.
11:57Let's be clear eyed about the immense consequences of this decision.
12:01It's a major blow to the world economy.
12:03It's a major blow to the world economy.
12:05It's a major blow to the world economy.
12:07It's a major blow to the world economy.
12:10Let's be clear eyed about the immense consequences.
12:14The global economy will massively suffer.
12:17Uncertainty will spiral and trigger the rise of further protectionism.
12:23The consequences will be dire for millions of people around the globe,
12:29also for the most vulnerable countries, which are now subject to some of the highest US tariffs.
12:39The US side, under the guise of reciprocity,
12:43imposed tariffs on products from many countries, including China.
12:47This seriously violates WTO rules and severely damages the rules-based multilateral trading
12:53system. China firmly opposes this and will take necessary measures to resolutely safeguard its
13:00legitimate interests.
13:03President Trump referred to reciprocal tariffs.
13:08A reciprocal tariff would be zero, not 10%.
13:14The administration's tariffs have no basis in logic,
13:18and they go against the basis of our two nations partnership.
13:22This is not the act of a friend.
13:25Today's decision will add to uncertainty in the global economy,
13:29and it will push up costs for American households.
13:34So the world leader is giving a thumbs down to Donald Trump.
13:37What about India?
13:38Remember, Donald Trump unleashed his tariff plan on India as well.
13:43And it's a mixed bag here.
13:44While he's levied relatively discounted tariffs on India, about 26%, 27%,
13:50and has kept some key industries like pharmaceuticals and semiconductors
13:55out of the tariffs on India,
13:57New Delhi is being cautious.
14:00The government says it's examining the implications
14:03as it continues trade talks with the United States.
14:07The big question then, how will Trump's tariffs affect India?
14:11Is it a setback or could this be an opportunity for India?
14:17Take a look.
14:18Starting tomorrow, the United States will implement
14:21reciprocal tariffs on other nations.
14:27Donald Trump and his reciprocal tariff rate card
14:30upended the global trade order on Wednesday.
14:36He erected new trade barriers around the world's largest economy,
14:39reversing decades of trade liberalization.
14:43As in the other Asian economies, markets in India reacted with alarm,
14:47only to recover later in trade.
14:53The revelation that sectors like pharmaceuticals,
14:56copper, energy and bullion and precious metals
14:59have been exempted from the tariffs and adjusted for the future.
15:02This is the first time in the history of the world
15:05that the United States has imposed tariffs on India.
15:08All these sectors are big contributors to the export kitty.
15:19Exporters, in fact, feel the tariffs could be an opportunity for the country.
15:38The first phase of new tariffs on India will kick in from 5th April.
15:55The rest, 17% will go into effect from April 10th.
15:59They will exclude vehicle and auto spare parts,
16:02as well as steel and aluminium, which already attract 25% tariffs.
16:08The United States has been the largest export market for India in the past few years.
16:14But what also made India a prime target for the tit-for-tat tariffs
16:18is the huge trade surplus India enjoys for the United States.
16:24Meanwhile, Prime Minister Narendra Modi today landed in Bangkok for the BIMSTEC summit.
16:29In his absence, however,
16:30the Indian government is assessing the impact of the reciprocal tariffs imposed by the US.
16:38In a statement issued this afternoon, the Commerce Ministry said it is carefully examining
16:43the implications of the various measures and is engaged with all stakeholders,
16:48including Indian industry and exporters.
16:51It added that the department is also studying the opportunities
16:54that may arise due to this new development in the US trade policy.
16:59According to the ministry, discussions are ongoing between Indian and US trade
17:03teams for the expeditious conclusion of a mutually beneficial,
17:07multi-sectoral bilateral trade agreement, which covers a wide range of issues of mutual interest,
17:13including deepening supply chain integration.
17:33Prior to the imposition of tariffs,
17:47economists had projected a 10 to 30 basis points hit to India's GDP growth from the US tariffs,
17:55in part due to export restrictions and in part because of the economic uncertainty.
18:00Bureau report, Business Today TV.
18:30Bhalla is an economist who served in various capacities,
18:34including with the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council and at the IMF.
18:38Anoop Vadhawan is former Commerce Secretary,
18:41dealt with the United States' previous administrations, including Trump 1.0.
18:46Raymond Vickery is also an advisor on US-India relations,
18:49a former US Assistant Secretary of Commerce and Trade Development based in Washington.
18:54Ajit Ranade is one of India's leading economists,
18:57and I appreciate all four of you joining me on the show today.
19:01I want to start with you, Dr. Bhalla.
19:03What's your sense?
19:04Has Donald Trump upended the world order with what he has done?
19:09And is that, in a sense, something that we should have been better prepared for?
19:16I've got three brief points to make, Harshdeep.
19:20You started off saying that China is the elephant in the room.
19:25That's wrong.
19:27China is the dragon in the room.
19:29The other two points are that we, in India, have had...
19:34What do you mean by...
19:35Can I just stop you?
19:36What do you mean by...
19:37Can you amplify that?
19:38What do you mean by dragon in the room?
19:40The dragon in the room means that the central story about Trump's tariffs is China.
19:48So, in other words, if China had played fair in its trade,
19:53then we wouldn't have had this trade tariff war.
19:57So China is the cause, or China's trade practices are the cause for what is happening.
20:04But let me come now directly to the India situation.
20:10Every Indian economist I know, and several of them are writing,
20:16and even opinion makers in India,
20:19even comedians, Juke Sariah has said that,
20:24listen, we have to welcome the trade tariffs that Trump is imposing on us
20:32because it will make us more competitive.
20:36We have not been competitive.
20:38We have not had trade reform.
20:40And this is high time, and this is a very good excuse
20:46for the government to implement far-reaching trade reforms,
20:51which if they are done, will be another 1991 moment for India.
20:55So this is an opportunity.
20:57You yourself said, is this an opportunity?
21:00We have not seen such an opportunity for trade reform in India until now.
21:06Third point, the economics of Trump's tariffs.
21:12As a very good friend and a leading trade economist, Robert Lawrence said,
21:17this is Stone Age economics.
21:19So that bolsters my point that the dragon in the room is China.
21:25It's not economics, well, it is indirectly,
21:29but it is the malpractices of China in trade with every country in the world
21:36has led to what we are now seeing as a tariff war, global tariff war.
21:43Let me get my guests to respond to, we'll get the China question also.
21:48I just want to focus for a moment on India.
21:50You've said this is our biggest opportunity possibly since 1991
21:55in a way to get our trade policies in place.
21:58This is a huge opportunity.
21:59Do you agree with that, Ajit Ranade,
22:01that because Donald Trump is virtually forcing us now to lower tariffs,
22:06this could be a huge opportunity?
22:09Yes, I agree with Surjeet and others who have said there's a silver lining
22:13to this action, this drastic action from the Trump administration.
22:17And the silver lining is the following,
22:19that first of all, since 2015, roughly,
22:23our tariffs have been drifting upwards,
22:26partly justified by making India a sort of incentive for that
22:31or the production-linked incentives to protect those industries.
22:35But actually, they have drifted 4% or 5% up,
22:37which is actually opposite to the direction
22:39we have been steadily going since 1991.
22:41Our target was to reach the ASEAN levels.
22:44So to that extent, we will now be forced to reconsider reducing our tariffs.
22:49Secondly, the silver lining is the following,
22:51that actually compared to China, Vietnam, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Indonesia,
22:59all of them have got much higher tariffs now.
23:02And that leads us to some advantage.
23:05For example, take the case of towels.
23:07India is a major supplier of towels to Costco and Walmart
23:11and major chains in the US.
23:13But our competitors are Vietnam and all these other countries.
23:16If we can get our act together and actually exploit this opportunity,
23:20even as mundane a product as textiles and garments,
23:23perhaps we can finally make this headway.
23:26But Rajiv, let me warn you that while there are the silver lining,
23:30the bigger danger is that the stock market news that you gave
23:34and Goldman Sachs as also supported by the statement of Jerome Powell,
23:40the chairman of the Federal Reserve,
23:42there is now an increased chance of a US recession, 40%, 50%.
23:47And a global recession will hurt India much more
23:51than whatever damage these tariff differentials or advantage we can get.
23:54A 1% drop in global growth is a serious impact on our exports.
23:59So in fact, this is something we need to worry about much more.
24:03Let me bring in Raymond Vickery for a moment.
24:05You heard Ajit Ranade suggesting that what really this could,
24:09there is a genuine fear, forget the tariff war for a moment,
24:12there could be a global recession as well.
24:15How are you seeing it?
24:16The American markets are totally spooked.
24:19Are you surprised with what Donald Trump has done the liberation day
24:22or was this expected?
24:25I don't think anyone expected it to be as harsh
24:31and as much of a sledgehammer as it is.
24:34What has occurred here is really a political move
24:40to try to play to the Trump bases.
24:44And it's not going to have an economic benefit by any means.
24:50It's based on a lie in the sense that India is not charging
24:5952% across the board in regard to tariffs.
25:03And it goes on from there simply to say that
25:10there is some basis for the calculation.
25:14There isn't really.
25:15It's just a matter of taking the deficit with the deficit
25:20with the trade deficit with India and dividing it by the overall trade
25:25and saying, pulling out of nowhere,
25:28that that's all due to India's misactions in regard to high tariffs,
25:35non-tariff barriers and regard to currency manipulation.
25:41This is all a false narrative.
25:44You feel like you're almost in a parallel universe.
25:47We're very much hopeful that the kinds of bringing together
25:53an opportunity that other guests have cited will come about.
25:57What this is, is really an invitation to further negotiation.
26:02But a lot of people are going to be hurt along the way.
26:06And it's no way economy.
26:09Just to push you for a moment,
26:11I know we are having a bit of a problem with your video,
26:13but we'll try and fix that.
26:14But still to push you, Raymond,
26:16is there a sense that there could be a bit of a rollback?
26:19We've seen that with Mexico and Canada,
26:21that Donald Trump uses tariffs also as a negotiating tool.
26:25He will force different countries,
26:27including potentially China described by Surjit Bhalla
26:30as the dragon in the room to the negotiating table.
26:34Do you see rollbacks, negotiations now taking place across the world with America?
26:41Yes, I think that this is the art of the deal.
26:45Stock and trade of Donald J. Trump to come in with a sledgehammer,
26:51an outrageous position to get people scared,
26:55feeling like they have to negotiate with a gun to their head,
26:59and then somehow get something that he will consider to be a victory
27:04that he can hold up as such.
27:08There are negotiations going on right now with India and the United States.
27:15As you may recall, when Minister Goyle was here,
27:21they put into place a mechanism to try to reach
27:27some sort of freer trade agreement by this fall.
27:31So this is stock and trade.
27:33This is vintage Donald Trump.
27:36But whether it'll work at this time is hard to say
27:40because what it does is destroy the WTO,
27:43the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade,
27:46the whole consensus, most favored nation approach,
27:50which has stood as well since World War II.
27:55You just heard, Anup Wadawan, what was said by Raymond Vickrey.
27:59He says this is quintessential Donald Trump using a sledgehammer.
28:04How should India therefore respond?
28:06We've got these trade talks taking place in the hope that by the autumn,
28:10we could have a possible bilateral trade deal.
28:12He's kept crucial products, importantly, like pharmaceuticals,
28:16like semiconductors out of the tariffs imposed on India.
28:20Should we therefore see the glasses half full
28:23with the potential of a trade deal in the autumn?
28:26Or could Donald Trump be driving an even harder bargain
28:29in the weeks and months ahead?
28:35Are you asking me?
28:36Yes, yes, yes, yes, Anup.
28:39So certainly, you see, it's a huge disruption of global trade.
28:45And I'm not inclined to see the silver lining
28:48that it's an opportunity for us to reform our own house.
28:53We certainly need to reform on our own terms.
28:56But this kind of disruption is absolutely mind boggling, highly disruptive.
29:03And one finds it hard to see any silver lining.
29:07Of course, the silver lining, the silver lining, the silver lining,
29:12Mr. Dr. Vadawan, is I'm told that by economists that look,
29:16China is going to have much more severe tariff restrictions,
29:21much higher tariffs, and India could benefit potentially from that.
29:26Yes, so these mitigating factors are there.
29:29You know, tariffs on China are higher, tariffs on Vietnam are higher,
29:32tariffs on Bangladesh are higher, Pakistan is higher,
29:35Malaysia, Thailand.
29:37So certainly, that's an opportunity.
29:40And the other opportunity is that the US is not a manufacturing nation.
29:46It can't become a manufacturing nation overnight.
29:49So it's a self-goal of the highest order.
29:52Americans will have to absorb these tariffs largely.
29:55They have no alternative.
29:57And America can't overnight become a great manufacturing nation
30:00and substitute all these products coming from abroad.
30:03So it's very, very hard to understand any sense or logic in this step.
30:08And America, in many senses, will be the worst sufferer.
30:11And the world will carve itself around the US.
30:16But why do you say India, there is no silver lining here for India?
30:20Why do you believe there's no silver lining?
30:24I'm sort of recognizing the silver lining,
30:27but I don't feel inclined to, you know,
30:30recognize that in a situation where it's such a disruptive step.
30:36And it's a door which has been opened, which will be hard to shut.
30:40You know, these doors are easy to open and very difficult to shut.
30:43In some ways, it undermines the entire WTO framework in perpetuity.
30:49I don't see a situation where, you know,
30:51credibly, we can come back to a rule-based global economic order.
30:57And the only sense you can make of this is that
31:01he quickly wants to bring people onto the negotiating table.
31:05And he'll quickly strike a deal because America cannot sustain these tariffs at these levels.
31:11They are not a manufacturing nation,
31:13their entire industry will be gutted if these tariffs persist.
31:17And if the world retaliates, the world retaliates to include
31:21American services, American tech companies, Amazon, Google, Facebook, Microsoft.
31:27If the world retaliates, perhaps the lesson will be learned that there is a world beyond goods.
31:32And you can't equate American success with the, you know, American goods trade deficit.
31:38Okay, you know, there are lots of strong points that you've made there.
31:42I just want to, before I carry on with the discussion,
31:45just tell you how has Donald Trump calculated these tariffs?
31:49What is Trump's mathematics or arithmetic white like?
31:53While the White House tariff chart shown by Donald Trump
31:56claimed that this is based on tariffs charged to the United States,
31:59so if India was charging 52%, he's, if India's tariffs are 52%,
32:06he's put it at 26% as retaliation.
32:10The fact is many financial journalists are questioning how these tariffs have been based.
32:16Do they include currency manipulation, trade barriers,
32:19economists point out that the actual formula is different.
32:22First, the trade deficit to imports has been calculated in percentage terms,
32:27which is divided by half to arrive at the reciprocal tariff.
32:31For example, the New York Times has given China's example.
32:34Now, America has a 291.9 billion trade deficit with China,
32:40divided by $433.8 billion imports from China, which equals 0.67 or 67%.
32:49That divided by two gives 34%, which is the new reciprocal tariff on China.
32:55Complicated, but that's how it is.
32:57Surjit Bhalla, you know, we are getting different viewpoints.
33:01You're saying this is a 1991 moment for India if we are able to get our tariff act together.
33:07There are others who are suggesting that we could be pushing the world towards a global recession,
33:11or Trump could be pushing the world towards a global recession,
33:14and that's bad news for India.
33:17Is the glass half full or half empty?
33:19Well, it is certainly half full, but let me expand on that.
33:23Look, and I'll respond to some of the points made by the other authors,
33:28or by the other commentators.
33:31One, that we can't be a manufacturing nation overnight.
33:37So therefore, to think that that's the silver lining,
33:40because our manufacturing will go up, is incorrect.
33:43Well, it may not be, we may not become a manufacturing nation overnight,
33:49but this will be a very, very good start to become a manufacturing nation.
33:55Second point, a recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growths.
34:03And I'll have a friendly bet with all the commentators, including you,
34:08on the show, that the US will not enter a recession.
34:14Why? Because the deal is not done.
34:17It's not over.
34:19This is just the beginning.
34:20And there is a lot of room for negotiations, etc.
34:25And we'll see.
34:26So I think that is a bogey that we should not be throwing at each other.
34:32The trade talks with the US will define our trade agreements with other countries,
34:41with the EU, with UK, etc.
34:44So therefore, any start that we get here, in terms of reducing our tariffs,
34:51in order to make us a manufacturing nation,
34:54or at least move towards India becoming a manufacturing nation, is more than welcome.
35:00No, but where does that leave the whole Make in India narrative?
35:06The Make in India narrative was based, you know, we've got almost a Swadeshi narrative.
35:11We will make India, we will protect our industry.
35:13Clearly, protectionism is out of the window then.
35:17I hope so.
35:19That is why I'm saying this is a...
35:20So where does it leave Make in India?
35:22We didn't take that.
35:23We didn't take that jump for 30 years.
35:26We did other reforms, but we did not take that jump on tariff reforms,
35:32neither in the previous administration or to previous administration.
35:36So this is a big story.
35:39And last point I want to make, if you're talking about a rule-based international order,
35:45one of the things that is coming out from all the economists, etc.,
35:50that this is both tariff and non-tariff barriers
35:55that the Trump administration and everybody else is talking about.
36:00Well, the country and the WTO, the country that has violated,
36:06if you will, non-tariff barriers is China.
36:09The country that has not operated according to rules-based is China.
36:15China is not a market economy.
36:18I challenge anybody to show any semblance of a market economy in China.
36:24So therefore, this is in our collective interest to get China to be a market economy.
36:32And we all may have to pay some cost.
36:35But I think the cost, certainly from India's point of view, will be minimal.
36:41It's in our hands.
36:42Our destiny is in our hands.
36:44Our trade is in our hands.
36:46And our manufacturing sector is in our hands.
36:48Let's just hope we play our hands correctly.
36:52Let's then come to that China question,
36:55which you referred earlier and again now,
36:57the dragon in the room, as Surjeet Bhalla has called it.
36:59Ajit Ranade, do you believe China is the dragon in the room?
37:03We are all talking about Trump appending a rules-based world trade order.
37:08Trumpians claim it's China which has repeatedly violated this trade order.
37:12And this is an attempt to get China to fall in line.
37:15If that happens, everything else will fall in place.
37:19Well, for the record, Rajdeep, two things have happened even as we speak.
37:24China has already approached the WTO saying that these tariffs are in violation of MFN.
37:30So they seem to believe in the rules-based order of WTO.
37:34Secondly, the Senate, including six or seven Republicans,
37:38have joined with the Democrats and blocked the action against Canada,
37:41the tariff action against Canada.
37:43So at least Canada is going to be not facing the severe tariff action.
37:47Now, about China, it's very fine to say that China has been knocking on the doors.
37:52WTO was born in 1995.
37:55And China has been knocking on the doors of WTO since 99 or 2001.
37:59And the entire world, especially the Western world,
38:02and through the 90s and through 2010 years,
38:05they enjoyed immense amount of disinflation, not deflation, disinflation,
38:09and the import of Chinese-made goods in a massive way.
38:13In a massive way.
38:14Consumption, you know, they benefited from low cost and also high quality,
38:19increasing quality of goods from China.
38:20So it's not as if this is a late realization.
38:23But then it became too much.
38:25So then it doesn't serve the U.S. interest anymore.
38:27And they saw that the Chinese are not only good at making labor-intensive goods,
38:31but they are now climbing the ladder of 5G, semiconductors, space, cyber, electric vehicles.
38:38So now this is, I agree with Surjit that this is basically confronting China
38:42because all this action is really China is the center, is the target.
38:45That something has to be done about the fact that China has,
38:50if you may, abused or used the system.
38:53But you don't cut your nose to spite your face.
38:57You don't put the entire world growth and world economy in such a big jeopardy.
39:02Not a single ally of the U.S. is saying good things about this.
39:05I mean, India, I still believe India has silver lining.
39:07India's manufacturing will get a boost.
39:11There's going to be trade diversification.
39:15Companies have multiple locations.
39:16They may relocate production to India.
39:18We are seeing that in iPhones.
39:20We are seeing some early success of PLI, even though it's across 14 sectors.
39:24But at least iPhones, smartphones has benefited, maybe electronics.
39:27But this is the bigger story of putting the entire world economy in danger.
39:34I hope Surjit is right, but even the chairman of the Federal Reserve
39:39is saying there's danger of recession.
39:40So I know that China has to be tackled.
39:42But perhaps this was not this was not the only way to do it.
39:46So the sledgehammer approach perhaps is questionable.
39:48But Raymond Vickery, there's already talk that there's been talk for a while that Trump
39:53or people close to Trump have been working at a backroom deal with China.
39:57That all of this, as some of my guests are suggesting, is designed towards China.
40:01If that backroom deal works out with China, the world will get back to normal.
40:06Until then, we'll have this constant uncertainty brewing.
40:11Is there a backroom deal, in your view,
40:13that the government is looking, the US administration is already looking at with Beijing?
40:19Well, first of all, if China is the problem,
40:23why not just go after China in regard to the trade?
40:27Why go after India?
40:28Why go after all of our allies with this across the board sledgehammer approach?
40:35That doesn't make any sense to me.
40:37Does Trump want to make, does President Trump want to make a deal with Xi?
40:43Yeah, sure.
40:43He wants to make a deal.
40:45He's a real estate developer.
40:47Everything is seen within the context of a transaction.
40:52If I can do a transaction with Xi, I'll do a transaction with him.
40:57If I do a transaction with Modi, I'll do the transaction.
41:02But the problem is that system does not work.
41:07It led to international chaos prior to World War II,
41:11was a contributing factor in regard to the instability which provided World War II,
41:17and was something that we worked to overcome.
41:19Now, we had an imperfect kind of system which was put into effect.
41:27But the idea that you just throw the baby out with the bathwater
41:31and everything is going to be all right because Trump is a great dealmaker is a fantasy.
41:38It's a parallel universe, and it's going to do great harm to the US-India relationship,
41:44to our domestic economy.
41:47You may not have a recession, but we're sure going to have inflation over here.
41:52And inflation was one of the two issues that got Trump elected.
41:57So this is no way to run the system.
42:01And it's really going to be counterproductive, hopefully.
42:07You know, Dr. Anup Wadhawan, you're hearing very strong words from Raymond Vickery.
42:14Many believe this is completely irresponsible.
42:17What Donald Trump is doing is using the power of the United States to throw the world into a tizzy.
42:24Now, US accounts for only about 13% of world trade.
42:29Could India then, in the worst case scenario, look for alternatives,
42:33look beyond the United States?
42:34The United States may be doing what America...
42:37How does one reconcile America first, then, with the policy of India first?
42:41There's a lot of talk in the Narendra Modi government, India first.
42:45How do you achieve India first?
42:49I lost you part of the way, but I agree with Raymond.
42:51You know, you have to really stretch your imagination to believe
42:56that these actions are aimed at China.
42:59You know, it could have been far more pointed, you know,
43:03without causing so much disruption.
43:05China could have been dealt with, you know, without...
43:08And within the WTO system, there are mechanisms available to deal with China,
43:13its non-market economy status, its subsidization of products, its dumping of products.
43:19There are mechanisms available in the WTO rules,
43:22all the anti-dumping duties, safeguard duties, countervailing duties.
43:27So, this sort of threatens the world order,
43:32and it threatens the world order in a manner which, you know,
43:37will be hard to turn around in the future.
43:41And it sort of causes great, you know, economic harm to the world.
43:50But how do you then build India...
43:53Sir, how do you build...
43:54As a former commerce secretary, how do you build India first?
43:58How does India first reconcile with America first?
44:01Can we build an India first narrative now,
44:03or are we dependent in a way because of this uncertainty
44:07to see what the United States does next?
44:09We don't know what Donald Trump will do tomorrow morning.
44:12Yeah, so I think the two goals are not incompatible.
44:20America can never be a major manufacturing nation.
44:23It has transformed and graduated from there.
44:26And as far as Indian opportunities are concerned,
44:30we need to put our house in order.
44:32And I don't think, you know, these actions are going to disrupt that objective.
44:38So in many ways, these two objectives are, you know,
44:41independent and not contradictory with each other.
44:45Yeah, but I take your point,
44:48but Surjeet Balla, have we got our house in order?
44:51It comes back to that.
44:52In the last few days, Indian officials have said,
44:56look, we are off the record.
44:57We are in trade talks with the United States,
44:59which is why perhaps they don't want to commit
45:01to how they want to respond to it.
45:03But we've seen previous trade talks with the Modi government,
45:06even other countries not succeeding.
45:08We've not been able to get a bilateral agreement with the United Kingdom,
45:11not with Australia, not with the United States.
45:15Now, suddenly we are under pressure to strike trade deals.
45:19Is the Modi government now going to have to change
45:22the way they've done their trade policies over the last decade?
45:25And can they do that?
45:26Will it work with their Swadeshi outlook on one side?
45:31That's why this is an opportunity.
45:33We haven't done trade deals, everybody agrees, for 40 years.
45:38We have not really reformed the trade sector.
45:41And this is an opportunity.
45:43I hope we realize it.
45:46I think we'll realize it.
45:48But, you know, basically you can't have it both ways.
45:52You can't say, for example, like some of the commentators are saying,
45:56I mean, I can't believe they can be so naive to think
45:59that the U.S. has not tried alternative methods with China.
46:05Look, Trump first brought tariffs against China
46:10or first addressed the China dragon problem.
46:15Biden then doubled down.
46:16So whether it is Republicans or Democrats,
46:20they both have been on the same page.
46:23So to think that, look, you know, the world is acting irresponsibly
46:29because they should have tried all the alternative methods.
46:33I just think that is very, very innocently naive.
46:38So I think the avenues are tried.
46:42You talk to, I mean, I was head of an HLAC committee
46:47which looked at trade relations with our trade.
46:52And basically the fault was mostly what the conclusion was, mostly ours.
46:57We didn't take the right actions.
46:59And as far as China was concerned,
47:01they thought that the only things India could export were Bollywood films.
47:07So look, China has behaved in a very, very, let's say,
47:15in a very combative way in its trade.
47:18And I think it has done the same with other countries.
47:22And that is why I say that China is the dragon in the room.
47:26I can't imagine this happening, what Trump has done today.
47:31And as I said in the beginning,
47:32there's no logic to these tariffs, et cetera.
47:36I've said that.
47:40Let me leave it there.
47:42I think you've said that strongly enough,
47:44China being the dragon in the room.
47:46Some would say China may be the dragon,
47:48but Trump is also the elephant in the room
47:51because we don't know what Donald Trump will do next.
47:54And because we don't know that,
47:55the world will continue to be plunged into uncertainty.
47:58Yes, Ajit, you want a quick response?
47:5930 seconds.
48:01Yeah, because, you know, don't be surprised
48:03because Mr. Trump said Xi Jinping is my friend.
48:05So tomorrow if BYD announces a $20 billion land in Arkansas or Tennessee,
48:11the whole equation will change.
48:12The Chinese, you know, they are also deal makers.
48:15So, you know, I think for them $20 billion is nothing.
48:18So this is all real politics.
48:21I don't think this is...
48:22If a transaction happens, then the whole tone will change.
48:27Transactional politics, transactional economics,
48:30we can only wait and watch in this country.
48:32It could be an opportunity
48:33or it could simply plunge the world into greater chaos
48:38over the next 12 months.
48:39I appreciate all my guests joining me here
48:42on our big talking point on the news today.
48:44Let's take a break.
48:45On the other side, we're turning to our Get Real India story.
48:49Why is the coastal village of Munambam in Kochi
48:53a flashpoint for the VAC debate?
48:57More on the other side.
49:05Welcome back.
49:06Now, the Lok Sabha late last night
49:08passed the VAC Property Amendment Act.
49:12The bill is now being debated as we speak in the Rajya Sabha
49:15and is expected to clear the Rajya Sabha hurdle as well.
49:20So we will have a new VAC Amendment Act.
49:23Now, outside all the political rhetoric,
49:26there is one village of Munambam in Kochi in Kerala
49:30that's become a flashpoint
49:31after the state's VAC board claimed
49:34that over 404 acres of land
49:37were designated VAC property in 1950.
49:41Hindu and Christian families in the village are up in arms
49:44demanding that their homes should be retained by them
49:48or be given back to them.
49:50Here's a ground report by India Today's Shibibol KG
49:53which reflects how the VAC debate
49:56has widened divisions on the ground.
49:59Take a look.
50:04A fishing village in Kerala is glued to the television sets
50:08as parliament debates the VAC Amendment Bill.
50:12Over 600 families, most of them Christians,
50:15living on a stretch of land in Munambam
50:18believe the proposed law can save their properties
50:21being claimed by the VAC board.
50:25This has become an issue with the church
50:27urging political parties of Kerala
50:29to back the bill piloted by the BJP.
50:32Catholic Bishops' Conference of India
50:35recommended to all the MPs to support us.
50:38It's a fight for justice.
50:39610 families are living here for almost 32 years
50:43with their properties
50:44and because of the VAC of 1995-2013 section 40
50:49the VAC board has taken our property.
50:52Until we get the property back from the VAC board
50:55we will be continuing our protest.
51:08The dispute dates back to 1902
51:28when the Travancore royal family leased 404 acres of land.
51:33Already occupied by fishing communities
51:36to a trader named Abdul Sattar Musa Syed.
51:39On November 1, 1950, Musa Syed's son-in-law
51:43Mohammad Siddique Syed endowed the land
51:46to Kodikode's Farooq College.
51:49A vakf deed was registered in Kochi.
51:51In the 60s, a legal battle started
51:54between the occupants of the land and Farooq College.
51:57Later, an out-of-court settlement was reached.
52:01The residents bought the land from Farooq College
52:03at market rate between 1989 and 1993.
52:08In 2008, acting on complaints of encroachment of vakf land
52:13the V. S. Achuthanandan government appointed a commission.
52:16The Nisar commission in 2009 identified
52:20that 600 acres of vakf land as encroached upon
52:24this included the land in Munambam.
52:26The commission said Farooq College had sold out the land
52:30without taking the permission of vakf board.
52:33In 2019, the vakf board declared Munambam land
52:37to be the vakf property.
52:39The decision has been challenged in the courts.
53:04After receiving this notice,
53:05their revenue rights were taken away from them.
53:08They were not able to mortgage these properties
53:13to pay loan or to avail a loan also.
53:28The Munambam land dispute has left the Muslim
53:30and Christian communities divided.
53:33Interfaith meets have failed to resolve the matter so far.
53:37The issue could have an impact
53:39in Christian-dominated constituencies
53:41in the 2026 assembly elections.
53:47With Shibi Moulkeji, Bureau Report, India Today.
54:03Aligarh Income Tax Department sent a notice
54:06of rupees 33.88 crores to a sanitation worker.
54:12That's right.
54:12A sanitation worker has got a 33 crore plus income tax notice.
54:18Way beyond his salary slip.
54:21Some things can happen only in India.
54:24I leave you with that story.
54:25Stay well, stay safe.
54:26Good night, Shobhratri.
54:27Jai Hind, Namaskar.
54:33Karan Kumar Valmiki is a millionaire on paper.
54:37The Income Tax Department has served him notice
54:39for tax evasion on business worth 33 crore 88 lakh rupees.
54:47The millionaire in tax records in reality
54:50is a sanitation worker at a State Bank of India branch
54:53in Aligarh district in Uttar Pradesh,
54:55earning 15,000 rupees per month.
54:59Karan Kumar Valmiki's family is in shock
55:01after receiving the income tax notice.
55:31Karan is not the only one to come under radar.
55:52Prince Suman, an ex-seller in Madhya Pradesh's Damo district
55:56has also received notice for tax evasion.
56:01Karan Kumar Valmiki, Ex-seller in Madhya Pradesh's Damo district
56:31Karan Kumar Valmiki and Prince Suman
56:47are victims of an elaborate scam.
56:50Both have sought police help to nail those behind the scam.
56:54Bureau report, India Today.