MEDI1TV Afrique : Les perspectives de croissance en Afrique 2025 avec Bachir Thiam - 01/04/2025
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00:00Hello ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Focus Eco.
00:12Africa, a continent with a young and growing population,
00:17a continent with abundant resources and with expanding markets,
00:21without forgetting a robust demand for the interior.
00:243.4 billion dollars,
00:26this is the potential of the African free-trade zone
00:30if it is fully exploited.
00:33According to the latest UN report,
00:35dependence on foreign markets,
00:38the volatility of raw materials exports,
00:41the high debt and the lack of infrastructure
00:44have accentuated the vulnerabilities of the continent.
00:48A report that calls for strengthening intra-African trade,
00:53strategic investment in transport and technology infrastructures
00:58and bold economic reforms.
01:02What are the prospects for growth in Africa?
01:05What are the major risks that African economies will face in 2025?
01:10We speak with Bachir Thiam.
01:12You are a journalist.
01:14Hello and thank you for being with us.
01:16Hello, thank you for having me.
01:19So this year, 2025, the IMF, the World Bank,
01:23a number of institutions, notary agencies,
01:27are talking about African growth,
01:29which is around 4.2%,
01:32a little behind the Asian continent,
01:35so in second place after the Asian continent.
01:39What can we say about this expected performance of the continent?
01:45Performance, we can also simply say that this growth,
01:49in my opinion, we should expect much more than that,
01:52in view of the potential that you described.
01:55You described the potential of Africa,
01:57because it is a very, very powerful continent
01:59that has a lot of natural resources,
02:01especially underground, but poorly exploited.
02:04You said it.
02:05You said that apart from the potential for growth
02:10in terms of GDP for African states,
02:14everything has to be redone.
02:16You said that everything has to be improved
02:18so that we are at the top of the world economies,
02:21because here we are in second place after Asia,
02:24but it is a small growth of 4.2%.
02:27It's good, but in practice,
02:32I mean, in the application,
02:34in the deployment of this in terms of wealth,
02:37in the current consumption of Africans,
02:40it is very little,
02:42because Africa needs more power in terms of growth,
02:46and in a long time, especially,
02:48over ten years at least, for it to take off.
02:50Otherwise, it's a yo-yo, it goes up, it goes down.
02:53For almost ten years,
02:56we have been around this growth between 4.2% and 5.4%.
03:01So it's a little yo-yo.
03:03So it doesn't allow Africa to take off,
03:07because that's what we need today.
03:09We don't need small growth
03:11that we have to vacillate and then come back on our two legs.
03:15We need to take off completely,
03:17because since we've been talking about it,
03:19it's been a good 15 years since we've been talking about Africa taking off.
03:22It's still a long way off.
03:24A positive growth,
03:26at least in view of the international conjuncture
03:29and the global economic uncertainty,
03:31but it's still, you said it,
03:33and I said it in a preamble,
03:35in view of the existing potential of the continent's riches,
03:38it's still a small growth
03:42compared to what we could do.
03:44We could do so much better.
03:45And precisely, what are the main levers
03:49of growth for the African continent
03:52for this year 2025?
03:56Well, we're still talking about it.
03:57It's still industrialization.
03:59Transformation of local products,
04:01because what's going on?
04:02We're not industrialized.
04:03First of all, that's a weakness.
04:05Secondly, we have a potential in terms of natural resources,
04:09but nothing is transformed on the spot, or very little.
04:12Everything is exported as it is,
04:14so it comes back to us as a finished product,
04:17much more expensive.
04:18We become consumers of our raw materials.
04:22However, we still have this potential for raw materials
04:25that we had to transform first.
04:27So, the levers are industrialization,
04:30local transformation.
04:32The second point, perhaps,
04:34is the valorization of raw materials.
04:36I said it, raw materials are the nerve of war,
04:39because everyone is in the conquest of these raw materials.
04:42That's what we transform,
04:43that's what becomes rich for countries and for our economies.
04:46To this day, these materials are still exploited,
04:50at least collected and transformed elsewhere,
04:53not in Africa, not on the continent,
04:55or very, very little.
04:56As a result, the added value of these raw materials
04:59is no longer reflected in our economies,
05:01in our everyday lives.
05:02A third point, which is also essential today,
05:05is that we have to digitize.
05:06I think we have to move towards new technologies,
05:09digitize our processes,
05:11to catch up with the time lost.
05:13We've lost a lot of time.
05:15In 60 years, we haven't evolved much
05:17since our global independence.
05:19So, I think that today we have to make this leap,
05:23this qualitative leap in digitization,
05:26in everything that is the materialization of our economies,
05:29of our governance processes.
05:31A fourth point, which is also important,
05:34is energy.
05:35So, as Morocco has done,
05:37renewable energy,
05:38because I think the salute is there,
05:40the salute will go through there,
05:42because today, Europe, the West,
05:44in general, invests in these energies.
05:47We are lucky to have the sun
05:49almost 365 days a year.
05:52There is wind,
05:53so we can exploit all this green side
05:55of renewable energies
05:57to perhaps allow us to boost
05:59the small industries that we have
06:01to move on to great performers,
06:05great players,
06:06as you say, big players in terms of industrialization.
06:08That's what we're missing in reality.
06:10Digitalization, energy, local production,
06:15value of raw materials,
06:16and then a whole youth,
06:18a young generation,
06:20which constitutes today
06:21the richness of the continent.
06:24How can the Zlekaf,
06:27the African Continental Free Trade Zone,
06:30accelerate this industrialization?
06:33Let's remember,
06:34I said it in preamble,
06:35the lack to be gained,
06:37because we do not exploit
06:38all the potential of this Zlekaf,
06:40is 3,400 billion dollars.
06:45Which is huge, I think,
06:47in terms of the lack to be gained.
06:49So, this question is still
06:52the question of regional integration,
06:54because we are talking about 2,030,
06:57around 30% in terms of commercial trade
07:00between African countries.
07:02Of the 55 countries,
07:0454 have already signed the Zlekaf,
07:07so the single market.
07:09Beyond the signature,
07:11which is a diplomatic protocol,
07:13let's put it that way,
07:14there is the reality of the field.
07:16So, it raises questions,
07:17first of all, of infrastructure,
07:19especially at the border level.
07:22How can we exchange products
07:26between countries that do not have
07:28communication possibilities
07:30in terms of transport,
07:31in terms of logistics?
07:32So, it raises serious problems too,
07:34of the potential for real integration
07:37on the ground,
07:38beyond political and diplomatic will.
07:41This is almost settled.
07:42Today, no one is almost
07:45out of the field of political will
07:48to deploy this single market.
07:51This is almost settled.
07:53Now, the operational question arises,
07:55and this cannot be decreed.
07:57It must go through
07:58robust, real infrastructures.
08:00Today, we are going to simply
08:02go from point A to point B
08:05on the continent,
08:06very often for logistics.
08:08In any case, we are almost obliged
08:09to go through Europe or Asia.
08:11It's very complicated, I think.
08:13And it also increases the costs
08:15of transport, logistics,
08:18and, finally, business.
08:20So, this raises a serious problem.
08:22The market is there.
08:23Political and diplomatic will
08:25is there.
08:26It has been signed 54 out of 55.
08:28It's huge.
08:29So, it's almost 100%.
08:31Now, how can we operationalize
08:33all this
08:34if there is no infrastructure?
08:35I think that infrastructure
08:37must also be one of the pillars
08:38of development for the continent.
08:40I think that the States,
08:42especially the enclaved States,
08:43must also be much more connected
08:46to be able to exchange.
08:47Otherwise, we may have production
08:49or productivity,
08:51but if we cannot flow it
08:52through the markets,
08:53it poses a serious problem.
08:55Hence this call to invest
08:56precisely in infrastructures
08:58and connectivity.
09:00Now, we are going to address the risks.
09:04What risks are there today
09:05at the level of African economies?
09:07Could we talk about public debt?
09:09Because a certain number
09:11of African countries are in debt
09:13in recent decades.
09:14So, the African States
09:16are rather looking at short-term loans
09:20rather than traditional loans
09:22as we knew them before
09:24in the long term.
09:25A lot of Chinese investment
09:27on the continent.
09:28Is it a good thing,
09:30these loans that are cut short?
09:34Yes, at the same time,
09:35maybe we don't have a choice.
09:36Is it a good thing?
09:37I don't know.
09:38But at any rate,
09:39at the moment,
09:40we don't have a choice
09:41other than the dictates
09:42of the funders.
09:44Because when we are not powerful,
09:46we are generally subject
09:47to much more draconian constraints
09:50in terms of access to financing.
09:53The States,
09:54in general,
09:56often have no choice
09:59but to lock up the funders.
10:03In this case,
10:04if it's not China,
10:05it's Europe.
10:06If it's not Europe,
10:07it's the U.S.
10:08If it's not the U.S.,
10:09in any case,
10:10we go back to these funders.
10:12It's very unlikely
10:14that our countries
10:15will be able to raise funds
10:17in the long term.
10:18It's starting to happen
10:19lately.
10:20It's the financial montages
10:21that are a bit sophisticated
10:23that allow us
10:24to go towards
10:25access to a financial market
10:27almost in parallel.
10:28Let's put it that way.
10:29But it can't solve the problem
10:31because the delay
10:32is so abysmal
10:34that in the end,
10:35we have to rely
10:36on these funds,
10:37on these international investors,
10:39and therefore,
10:40we have to follow
10:41their way of seeing the world.
10:43Because we can't
10:44rely on ourselves
10:46if we're not powerful,
10:47if we don't have a share
10:49to offer to these funders.
10:51They come to us
10:52and tell us,
10:53we give you this
10:54and you do that.
10:55We have no choice
10:56and we leave.
10:57Besides,
10:58when we see
10:59the countries
11:00that are trying
11:01to put in place
11:04transparency
11:05on their economic status
11:07in general,
11:08we discover
11:09that many countries
11:10are much more indebted
11:11than we thought.
11:12Because there are many
11:13that are not
11:14up to date
11:15in terms of economic information
11:16and therefore,
11:17they don't even allow
11:18to have a kind
11:19of visibility
11:20or vision
11:21that would allow
11:22to project themselves
11:23in the long term.
11:24As a consequence,
11:25we are obliged
11:26to take small steps.
11:27So,
11:28short-term debt
11:29to be able
11:30to save the furniture,
11:31etc.
11:32Because it's really
11:33a daily life
11:34and as long as
11:35we don't get out
11:36of this vicious circle
11:37of daily consumption,
11:38we won't be able
11:39to take off
11:40because,
11:41even if we have
11:42a huge potential,
11:43because many countries
11:44today have discovered
11:45gas,
11:46oil,
11:47I don't know
11:48what other raw materials
11:49that could help us
11:50develop,
11:51but the basic structures
11:52are not yet solid
11:53to be able
11:54to carry on
11:55this growth
11:56that we have
11:57in the last
11:5820 years.
11:59So,
12:00we have to
12:01accept
12:02that our growth
12:03will transform
12:04very quickly.
12:05In any case,
12:06there are several
12:07market opportunities
12:08or a potential
12:09that is there
12:10and that needs to be
12:11better exploited,
12:12explored
12:13and risks
12:14that need to be
12:15monitored
12:16to better anticipate
12:17in any case
12:18what is happening
12:19in the markets
12:20for a more resilient
12:21continental economy.
12:22Thank you,
12:23Mr. Bachir Thiam,
12:24for this analysis.
12:25It was a pleasure
12:26to have you with us.
12:28Merci.
12:29C'est la fin du Focus Eco pour aujourd'hui.
12:32On se retrouve demain
12:33avec un nouvel invité,
12:34un nouveau sujet.
12:35Très bonne journée.