On "Forbes Newsroom," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Forecaster Alex DaSilva broke down the expected 2025 hurricane season.
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NewsTranscript
00:00Hi, everyone. I'm Maggie McGrath, senior editor at Forbes. AccuWeather is out with its 2025
00:09Atlantic hurricane forecast. How bad will this hurricane season be? Joining us to discuss
00:16is Alex Da Silva. He is AccuWeather's lead hurricane forecaster. Alex, so good to have
00:21you back. Yeah, thank you for having me. So you guys are out with your 2025 projections
00:28for hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin. Can you take us through just the broad overview?
00:33How bad will this hurricane season be? Yeah, well, we're expecting 13 to 18 named storms.
00:39Last year, we saw 18. So it looks like it's probably going to be a little bit less active
00:43than last year, at least in terms of the number of storms. The average is 14. So still expecting
00:48an average to above average hurricane season, expecting 7 to 10 of those storms to become
00:54hurricanes. Last year, we saw 11 hurricanes. And then of those 7 to 10 hurricanes, we expect
00:593 to 5 of them to become major hurricanes. And that would be category 3 or above. But the number
01:05that everybody really cares about here is how many of these are actually going to impact me.
01:10Well, we have 3 to 6 direct impacts on the United States here forecasted. Last year, we saw 6,
01:17and the average is 4. So we still expect a very impactful hurricane season.
01:22So just to break down that 13 to 18 number, are those storms that could potentially form
01:27in the Gulf or off the coast of the U.S. and maybe not even make landfall or not register
01:32in people's minds or even in the weather that we experience? Yeah, correct. A lot of these storms
01:37won't even get close to land. Most of them curve out into the Atlantic. Maybe they impact Bermuda
01:42or some of them even stay well east of Bermuda and then just work their way out and only affect
01:47shipping channels. So most of the storms actually never really get close to the United States. But
01:52it's those 3 to 6 that we're concerned about that could actually make landfall or get very,
01:57very close to the United States. And those are the ones that people need to watch very,
02:01very carefully. Are you forecasting which months those might hit those major storms making landfall
02:07or is it too soon to say? Well, hurricane season runs from June 1st all the way through the end of
02:13November. So we can really see storms any time in that period. But this year, especially, we're
02:19concerned that there could even be some early season development. The water temperatures are
02:23very, very warm in here. So everywhere where you see orange or yellow in here are indicating
02:28temperatures that are above average. So as we get a little bit closer towards the hurricane season,
02:34May storms are, you know, fairly rare, but they do happen. And it wouldn't surprise me if we could
02:40get something to develop during the month of May, certainly during the month of June. So like I said,
02:45not very common to get something in May, but it does happen. And I think that because of the water
02:49temperatures being so warm and the fact that we're transitioning from a La Nina to neutral, you're
02:56still going to have a little bit of those La Nina impacts, lower wind shear across the basin. That
03:01makes things a little bit more conducive for early season or even preseason development. So last year
03:07was a La Nina year. This year is, you said neutral, so not El Nina, not El Nino. Can you just explain a
03:13little bit more about what that means? Yeah, absolutely. So right now we're basically on the
03:18cusp of a La Nina, you know, and essentially what that is, is the water temperatures way out across
03:24the eastern Pacific Ocean, right along the equator, would be cooler than average. And so they're cooler
03:29than average right now, but we're right on the cusp of a La Nina. Typically we would need three
03:34straight months of that to officially be declared a La Nina. So I don't think they've quite done that,
03:38but nevertheless, the atmosphere is behaving like a La Nina. And as we go into the hurricane season,
03:45those water temperatures way, way, way down here are going to be warming up a little bit. However,
03:50there's a little bit of a lag time. And so, you know, the Atlantic basin may actually act kind of
03:56like a La Nina during the months of May, June, and maybe even into July with some reduced wind
04:02shear across this area. But even during neutral years, which we expect most of this hurricane
04:07season to be in, the research has found that even though the numbers of storms might not be as high
04:13as they are during La Nina years, it's still very close. It's really those El Nino years that you
04:20really see a significant drop in tropical storms and hurricanes. Neutral years and La Nina years
04:25are actually very, very close. And that would account for the forecast that you just shared,
04:30being relatively close to the numbers that we saw last year. Let's get into the major storm
04:36impacts. What are the geographic areas you're forecasting could be at risk for landfall and
04:42significant damage? Yeah. So when we're creating our forecast, we look back typically at years
04:47that we expect to have a similar atmospheric pattern. So we're looking back at years that
04:52probably started as a La Nina or a weak La Nina and then transitioned over to a neutral pattern
04:56during the hurricane season. And then we kind of look at, you know, which areas were impacted
05:02during that time. And then we usually like to plot them. And this is what we have here.
05:06Every orange dot you see on this map was a tropical storm hit and every red dot was a
05:11hurricane hit. And there were 12 years in what we call our analog patch package. And we circled the
05:17areas that we have, you know, kind of clustering. Right. And so you can see a lot of clustering here
05:22along the Texas coast, some here in the northern north central Gulf Coast, around the New Orleans
05:28area. And then you see some around the big bend of Florida and along the West Coast,
05:32some more over there near North Carolina, the North Carolina coast, and then some in Atlantic
05:37Canada as well. And so these are the areas that the past patterns have led to impacts in these
05:46areas. And so these are the areas that I'm concerned that if we indeed go towards neutral
05:50this season, which we expected to do so, the atmospheric patterns support a greater than
05:55average risk in these circled areas here. I'm looking at the North Carolina circle. North
06:01Carolina was battered towards the end of last year's hurricane season. Are you forecasting
06:07that the major storms will hit those exact same places that are still recovering from last year's
06:13effects? I mean, they certainly could. And the thing about Helene, which was the one that brought
06:17all the rain to the Carolinas, was it actually made landfall down here in Florida and it moved
06:22up, all the moisture moved up. And so that's really the concern is that since we're expecting
06:26a lot of landfalls to occur down here, a lot of the impacts could come well inland here. If I go
06:32back to our tropical tracks from last year, you can see some of these storms, Barrel, Helene,
06:38they moved well, well inland and brought those impacts hundreds and hundreds of miles away from
06:42the coast. If you remember back to Barrel, there was a lot of tornadoes up here across portions of
06:47upstate New York. And then, of course, you had Helene, which brought the devastating flooding
06:52to the Appalachian Mountains. But again, those areas are well, well inland away from the coast.
06:57And so we want people, even if they live well inland away from the coast, to really pay attention
07:03to the forecast very, very carefully, because if especially since we're expecting there to be
07:08impacts on the Gulf Coast, a lot of times after storms make landfall down here, where do they go?
07:13They go to the north and to the east, and they'll bring those impacts with them.
07:18You raise a good point about the folks who live in these areas, and I'm wondering,
07:21you know, it's the end of March, hurricane season officially begins in June. What is your and
07:27AccuWeather's recommendation people do in those areas between now and June 1st, if anything?
07:33Yeah, I mean, certainly you just want to have a plan in place, know what you're going to do. And
07:37again, a lot of people along the coast have hurricane plans, but it's the people inland
07:42that we're really concerned about is that, you know, you need to have a plan, especially if you
07:46live in mountainous terrain, things like that in the Appalachians, just know what you're going to
07:50do if a storm's coming down here and making landfall and could bring lots and lots of rain
07:56to your area. Know, are you going to evacuate? Are you going to move over here or over there?
08:01Just have a plan in place depending on where the storm is, what angle it's coming in at,
08:06and just know exactly, are you going to stay with friends and family? Are you going to go to a hotel?
08:11Just know where you're going to move to if a hurricane threatens your area.
08:16Last year, there was enormous economic devastation from these storms. Can you remind us what
08:22AccuWeather's accounting of the full economic toll of the 2024 hurricane season was?
08:27Yeah, these are the 2024 hurricane numbers in terms of the economic damage. And it's not just
08:32the physical damage. It is damage to, you know, tourism, to insurance premiums, things like that.
08:40So that's why AccuWeather's numbers are so big, because we factor in all of these other things.
08:45It's more than just the physical damage that you see with your naked eye. A lot of times,
08:49these disasters can last years and years and years beyond that. The tourism loss, things like that.
08:55So Helene was number one, $225 to $250 billion in damage. And again, that's not just physical
09:02damage. That is total economic damage. Then you have Milton here in second place, spawned a lot
09:08of tornadoes in Florida, Milton did. And then as you go down the list here, Beryl, a lot of those
09:12tornadoes, again, well inland away from where the storm made landfall. And then you have several
09:17other storms here that still produced billions and billions of dollars in damage. So last year was an
09:22extremely, extremely destructive hurricane season. And we do expect multiple landfalls once again
09:28during the 2025 season. So if I'm doing back of the envelope math, that's approaching
09:34almost $500 billion of economic damage. I'm rounding up a little bit.
09:39Is AccuWeather projecting that the economic damage of the 2025 hurricane season,
09:43will that come close? It's hard to say, you know, this far out because you can have storms that
09:49impact very populated areas or very not populated areas, right? Our forecast is for three to six
09:54impacts on the United States. You know, we can kind of give an idea about what areas might be
09:59a little bit more vulnerable. But at the end of the day, it comes down to, you know, are they big
10:03population centers, right? Because if it impacts a much larger population center, like a Houston,
10:08a New Orleans, a Miami, right? Those are Tampa. Those areas are much more populated. And if you
10:14get a storm to go in those areas, the damage and economic impact is likely going to be a lot higher
10:21than if the storm made landfall more in a swampy area. Of course, those impacts still travel well
10:26inland. But again, the landfall is also a very big piece of the puzzle here. So it's very difficult
10:31to put an exact number on the damage potential for this year. A lot of it does come down to
10:36exactly where the storms make landfall and then where they move after landfall as well. Now, Alex,
10:43I know a lot of analysis and data goes into producing these forecasts. But since it is the
10:48end of March, I have to ask, what are the odds that your hurricane forecast could change and what
10:53are the factors that could change that three to five, those three to six figures that you were
10:58sharing with us earlier? Yeah. And, you know, preparing the forecast, we look at all the
11:02different things, kind of what could potentially lead the forecast to be a little bit higher,
11:06a little bit lower. Right now, 18 is our top number for named storms here. I'd give it about
11:12a 20 percent chance that we actually exceed that number of 18. And I'll tell you why right now. If
11:18we look way out near Africa here, last year, what we saw was we saw a lot of cooling down in this
11:25region here, way, way, way down there. So off the west coast of Africa, along the equator,
11:29we call that an Atlantic nina. Now, that's completely opposite from what happens in the
11:35Pacific. It's a totally different we call them teleconnections, but it has a very different
11:41impact. We talked about how a lot ninas in the Pacific can actually lead to a more robust
11:47Atlantic tropical season. However, when you get cooler waters down in this region here,
11:53that can actually mess with the African easterly jet, the jet stream that transports tropical
11:58waves across Africa and then across the Atlantic. And it can also bring more dry air into the
12:03Atlantic. We saw that actually happen last year when this area cooled substantially during the
12:09middle of the season, late August through the first 10 to 15 days of September were actually
12:16pretty quiet in the Atlantic, very little development. And I think a large part was
12:20because this area cooled. So that's something we're going to have to watch throughout the
12:24season. It's definitely possible that this area cools. If that occurs, we're probably on the
12:29lower end of the forecasted numbers. Now, here's the thing. If this area warms, if it significantly
12:36warms, that would be an Atlantic nino. In that case, it actually increases tropical development
12:42across the Atlantic. So if that happens, that's the way we probably get to 18 or 19 storms,
12:48is if this area never cools, it stays warm throughout the season and we see more activity
12:53because, you know, the Atlantic Basin, we know it's pretty much going to be warm throughout the
12:58entirety of the Atlantic Basin. We have to look at these other factors to figure out how the
13:03season's going to go. Alex, we've covered a lot of ground. Is there anything else our audience
13:09should know about AccuWeather's hurricane forecast for 2025? Yeah, another thing we're going to be
13:14watching for. So we talked about the Atlantic nino, the thing right off of Africa, but let's
13:19switch back to the Pacific version, the one we started with. So let me go back to our graphic
13:24here, talking about a traditional La Nina, what it does to the Atlantic, more activity. Again,
13:29that's the one in the Pacific, the big one. What we're expecting this season is that we're
13:33expecting most of the season to be in a neutral pattern. And like we talked about earlier,
13:37a neutral pattern and a La Nina typically are very close. That's what the research shows.
13:42Both of them have usually above near to above average number of tropical storms and hurricanes.
13:47Now, late in the season, the question is, which way is it going to break? Is it going to stay
13:52neutral or is it going to break back towards a La Nina or maybe it goes the other way and goes
13:57up towards an El Nino? The reason why that's important is because that can influence the end
14:01of the tropical season. So we're talking end of October into November. If you remember last year,
14:06it was quite active at the end of the hurricane season, and that's because we were transitioning
14:10more into this La Nina pattern that we're currently in. So if at the end of the hurricane
14:16season we're neutral and we start trending towards a La Nina, that could allow for a very active end
14:22to the tropical season, maybe several storms in the month of November. If things move the other
14:28way and it warms up in the Pacific and we get more of an El Nino pattern to develop, that could mean
14:34that we see more of a sharp cutoff to the end of the season. Maybe we don't see a whole lot at the
14:38end of October and we maybe don't see maybe a single storm during the month of November.
14:44Right now, if you ask me which way am I leaning right now, I think we're probably either going
14:49to be neutral or weak La Nina at the end of the hurricane season. And so that means that we could
14:54see an active beginning to the season, an active end to the season, and then maybe some lulls in
15:00the middle of the season if those waters in this area cool down here. So it could be very dynamic
15:08as we move throughout the hurricane season. A dynamic hurricane season. Alex DaSilva,
15:12lead hurricane expert at AccuWeather, thank you so much for joining us and taking us through
15:16this forecast. We really appreciate your insight. Thanks for having me.