MEDI1TV Afrique : JT Economie - 22/03/2025
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00:00Thank you for joining us on Medihan and welcome to this weekly edition of the Journal de l'Economie.
00:14Banca Almarriba decided to lower the CEO rate on Tuesday at the meeting of its board.
00:19It decided to reduce for the second time in a row and the third since last June, the CEO rate of 25 base points at 2.25%.
00:29This decision comes as the inflation forecast evolves to 10 levels in line with the objective of price stability and in order to strengthen its support for economic activity and employment.
00:42At the same time, Banca Almarriba maintained its growth projections for this year.
00:47It tabled at a rate of 3.9% in 2025.
00:50In total, the growth of the national economy would be at 3.2% in 2024 and should accelerate gradually to reach 3.9% this year and 4.2% in 2026.
01:04The previous year, non-agricultural growth would have reached 4.2% and should remain around this medium-term level,
01:11drawn according to Banca Almarriba mainly by the increase in investment in infrastructure.
01:16Growth would have fallen by 4.7% in 2024 and should take into account a cereal harvest that would reach this year, according to a preliminary estimate by Banca Almarriba, 35 million cantons.
01:31We stay with the latest figures from the Central Bank.
01:34After two years of high levels, inflation experienced a very sensitive slowdown in 2024, returning to 0.9% on average.
01:43The institution tabled an inflation acceleration this year in 2026 while remaining at a moderate level.
01:50According to the Central Bank, the underlying component of inflation rose to 2.2% in 2024 and would also evolve around 2% in the medium term.
02:02At the height of this weekly edition, the commercial dynamic between Spain and Morocco continues to intensify in 2024.
02:10According to Eurostat and the Spanish Tax Control Agency, as well as the Moroccan Trade Office,
02:16Spanish exports to Morocco are expected to reach 12.859 billion euros in 2024,
02:23recording a 5% increase compared to the year 2023.
02:27The structure of Spanish exports remains varied and dominated by certain key sectors,
02:32such as fuels, digital devices, vehicles, electrical equipment and plastics.
02:38At the same time, Spanish imports from Morocco report a notable increase,
02:43reaching 9.834 billion euros the previous year, a 9% increase compared to the year 2023.
02:51In 2024, Morocco accounts for 3.34% of Spanish exports, setting a historic record.
02:59This performance places the Kingdom of Morocco in the seventh rank of customers in Spain,
03:03surpassing certain European partners such as Belgium and the Netherlands.
03:11Economic news this week is also the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development,
03:17which revised its global growth forecast for this year, at 3.1% against 3.3% previously,
03:25pulled down by projections of weaker growth in the United States and in the Eurozone.
03:30In the world, growth should be at 3% in 2026 against 3.3% projected last December,
03:37and would therefore fall by 0.2 points compared to December forecasts.
03:42At the Eurozone level, the OECD is now targeting a growth of 0.7% this year and 1.2% next year.
03:50To explain this decline, the OECD highlights the trade war between the United States and its partners
03:56and the geopolitical and political uncertainties that cross many countries.
04:01The United States should see its GDP increase by 2.2% this year to 1.6% next year, according to the OECD.
04:09The international institution is dropping respectively by 0.2 and 0.5 points its growth prospects in 2025 and 2026 for US economic activity.
04:23We continue our journal at l'International, the index of food prices of the United Nations
04:30for Food and Agriculture was established at 127.1 points in February,
04:37a 1.6% increase compared to January and 8.2% more than its value recorded a year earlier.
04:44The global increase of this index is attributed to the increase in sugar prices, dairy products and vegetable oils.
04:51The index of sugar prices thus gained 6.6 points compared to January and reached 118.5 points in February.
04:59For the price of vegetable oils, it marks a 29.1% increase from a year earlier.
05:06Cereal prices have increased from 0.7 points in February, while world rice prices have dropped 6.8%.
05:14As for the price of dairy products, they have increased by 4% since January, which displayed an average value of 148.7 points.
05:23According to the FAO, prices have progressed due to the high demand for imports, which was higher than production, recorded in the main exporting regions.
05:34We end our weekly edition with global trade, which experienced a record expansion to reach $33 billion in 2024,
05:45an increase of 3.7% compared to 2023.
05:49According to a report by the UN, trade and development, global trade began in 2025 on stable bases.
05:56The document also indicates that the previous year, global trade imbalances returned to 2022.
06:02The US trade deficit has deepened, China's surplus has increased, while the European Union has become surplus due to the evolution of energy prices.
06:13This trend, according to the same source, could lead to new customs rights, restrictions or investment reorientations, with more consequences on economic uncertainty.
06:24We come to the end of our weekly edition, thank you for your loyalty and good follow-up of programs on our antenna.