日経サタデー ニュースの疑問 2025年3月22日 危ういトランプ停戦・露×ウの戦火拡大か？
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00:00Good morning.
00:13We are live at Nikkei Sata on March 22.
00:17Let me introduce our guest for the day.
00:20Professor of American Foreign Studies at Keio University,
00:24Professor Satoru Mori.
00:27Professor of International Politics at Tsukuba University,
00:31Professor Atsuko Higashino.
00:34Thank you for joining us.
00:36And Joseph Kraft,
00:38Economic Analyst.
00:40Thank you for joining us.
00:42And Hirano Takashi,
00:44Editor-in-Chief of Ukulele Inform Japan,
00:47is joining us remotely from Kiev, Ukraine.
00:51Hirano, thank you for joining us.
00:54Thank you for having me.
00:57I'll be talking to these four people.
01:00Let's take a look at what's going on.
01:05The Trump-Ukraine War.
01:07Where is the Ukraine invasion heading?
01:10This week, there have been a lot of moves.
01:14Between Russia and the US,
01:16between the US and Ukraine,
01:18and there have been important meetings in Europe.
01:22Let's take a look at where the war is heading.
01:29Here's the keyword.
01:31The next step is nuclear power plants.
01:34President Trump has been talking about nuclear power plants,
01:39but he's also talking about the right to own nuclear power plants.
01:43I think he's very particular about the recovery of funds in Ukraine.
01:49Let's take a look at what he's trying to do.
01:53After the commercial, here's a special report.
01:56This week, the phone conversation between the US and Ukraine
01:59was suspended for a while.
02:01Let's take a look at why.
02:14Before the phone conversation with Russian President Putin,
02:18President Trump of the United States had high expectations for the war in Ukraine.
02:27As a result of the two-hour meeting on the 18th,
02:31Putin and Trump agreed to stop the attack on energy facilities and infrastructure.
02:42But a few hours later,
02:44Ukraine announced that the Russian military had launched a drone attack
02:48and damaged private infrastructure such as hospitals.
02:55In the phone conversation between the US and Ukraine,
02:59Putin asked the US not to stop the war,
03:02but to stop providing military support and information to Ukraine.
03:07This has made negotiations difficult.
03:11After the phone conversation with Putin,
03:14Trump had a phone conversation with Zelenskiy of Ukraine.
03:31Zelenskiy also agreed to stop the attack on energy facilities
03:36and provide military support to Ukraine.
03:42In February, there was a debate at the White House,
03:45and while negotiations were in a state of emergency,
03:48the US and Ukraine were able to reach an agreement.
03:55In this phone conversation,
03:57Trump suggested that the US own Ukraine's nuclear power plant
04:02as the best infrastructure protection measure.
04:10Regarding the nuclear power plant,
04:13Zelenskiy said that all nuclear power plants were owned by Ukraine
04:17and that he did not object to the right to own them.
04:24On the 24th, in Saudi Arabia,
04:28the US and Ukraine will discuss the path to a full-scale ceasefire.
04:33Will it go well?
04:40Meanwhile, in Europe,
04:42negotiations are underway on how to ensure the safety of Ukraine.
04:47On the 15th, the UK's Prime Minister Sturmer
04:50will hold an online meeting to discuss the security of Ukraine
04:54and the possibility of a ceasefire.
04:57They will also discuss the UN.
05:03On the 20th,
05:05the EU-European Council of Ministers will hold a meeting
05:08to discuss support for Ukraine.
05:12Although new military support has been considered,
05:15Hungary opposed it
05:17and did not agree to a full-scale ceasefire with 27 countries.
05:25Will it be possible to ensure the safety of Ukraine after the ceasefire?
05:33Today, we will discuss three themes
05:36of the Russian-Ukrainian full-scale ceasefire.
05:39First, the US-Ukrainian negotiations.
05:42Who will win?
05:44This week, a lot has happened in Ukraine.
05:48On the 18th, the US-Ukrainian phone conference was held.
05:52On the 19th,
05:54the US-Ukrainian phone conference was held.
05:57On the 20th,
05:59the EU-European Council of Ministers
06:02will hold a meeting to discuss support for Ukraine.
06:07On the 20th,
06:09the EU-Ukrainian phone conference was held.
06:12Although new military support has been considered,
06:15they did not agree to a full-scale ceasefire with 27 countries.
06:18On the 21st,
06:20the US-Russia,
06:22the US-Ukraine will hold a meeting.
06:24The phone conference was held on the 18th,
06:26but it took two and a half hours.
06:28President Trump said
06:30that President Putin may have waited for about an hour.
06:34First, let's look at the US announcement.
06:37They agreed to a full-scale ceasefire.
06:41They agreed to a full-scale ceasefire.
06:44They agreed to a full-scale ceasefire.
06:47By the end of September,
06:49they agreed to a comperforming of close-alarmed development
06:51based on new technologies.
06:53And they agreed to a full-scale ceasefire.
06:55They agreed to a full-scale ceasefire.
06:58By the end of September,
07:00they agreed to a performing of close-armed development
07:02based on new technologies.
07:03They are looking forward two head-on negotiations.
07:06And the Russians announced
07:08that the US will establish a unified special operations group
07:11and will halt dealing in Ukraine for 30 days
07:13In the last announcement, the difference in the location of the attack was that the U.S. side was attacking the energy facilities and the infrastructure,
07:23while the Russian side was targeting the energy facilities, so the gap was quite wide.
07:28However, after that, the U.S. government has changed the policy to only attack the energy facilities.
07:35Ms. Higashino, what do you think about the Beirut Main Staircase?
07:41Until now, the Russian position has been that Ukraine is in the way of the ceasefire,
07:47and that Ukraine does not want a ceasefire, so the war will continue.
07:53In a sense, the Trump administration was also in favor of it.
07:57However, in this Beirut telephone conference,
08:00the Russian side did not respond positively to the Russian side's response to the ceasefire in the U.S.
08:07It was clear that the U.S. side had only accepted the ceasefire in a fairly small way.
08:13From Ukraine's point of view, at the same time that the ceasefire was being postponed,
08:18I think it was possible to impress the international community that Russia was in the way.
08:24I think there was a positive aspect and a negative aspect.
08:27I think the best thing was that President Putin said,
08:31Stop supporting Ukraine's military.
08:36I've been saying this for a long time since before the war in 1921,
08:44so I think it's clear that Russia's position has not changed.
08:49So I think it's clear that it's not Ukraine, but Russia, that is stronger.
08:55I think it was a symbolic step.
08:58As I understand it, President Putin has issued a condition this time.
09:03The conditions for the ceasefire are here.
09:06Stop the forced mobilization and regrouping of Ukraine.
09:11And military support from foreign countries to Ukraine.
09:14Complete cessation of information provision.
09:16It's a pretty strong request.
09:18That's what Mr. Higashino is saying.
09:22As for what Mr. Higashino just said,
09:24so far, Putin's side has been saying that it's Ukraine that doesn't want a ceasefire.
09:30He's been spreading that kind of narrative.
09:33Did you find out that it was Russia that didn't want a ceasefire?
09:39I don't know if it was good or not,
09:41but from the Ukrainian side's point of view,
09:43they've been saying that they want to continue the war,
09:47so I think the fact that it's not true has been conveyed to the international community.
09:51What do you think, Mr. Mori?
09:53I think Mr. Trump was probably aiming for a full ceasefire when he entered this stage.
09:59However, as Mr. Higashino just said,
10:02it has become clear that Russia is facing a very high-level challenge.
10:08It is likely that the Russian side will have zero answers here,
10:12and if there is no progress to say that a ceasefire cannot be made,
10:16the entire U.S.-Russia relationship will be damaged.
10:19From the Russian side's point of view,
10:21they are probably discussing with the U.S. about a trade deal,
10:24but they have a bigger goal of improving the relationship,
10:27such as the abolition of economic sanctions.
10:30So, from the point of view of providing some partial information,
10:34they're saying that this is a partial ceasefire,
10:37and they're giving Mr. Trump some results,
10:40and they're connecting hopes,
10:42and they're forwarding the important conditions.
10:45They're probably going to spend more time on military configuration,
10:48and they know which side is going to say to Mr. Trump.
10:51Since the Russian side has the upper hand,
10:53shouldn't we be able to meet our demands in Ukraine?
10:56They're trying to proceed in parallel with foreign configuration.
10:59I think that's the kind of situation they're in.
11:02From Mr. Trump's point of view,
11:04they're providing the materials that can say that the negotiation is going well,
11:09and they're extending the time.
11:11I think that's what it is.
11:13It doesn't feel like a North Korea-U.S. negotiation,
11:17but I guess that's Putin's way of doing it.
11:20Yes, I think it's about connecting expectations.
11:23They're going to extend the time,
11:25and they're going to show their superiority,
11:27and they're going to try to increase leverage.
11:30Mr. Kraft, what do you think?
11:32Yes, as for Trump,
11:34he showed a form of partial ceasefire,
11:39but in order to achieve that,
11:41the U.S. side had to meet Russia's demand for energy facilities and infrastructure.
11:47Yes, that's right.
11:48I think they were a little embarrassed,
11:51and they proceeded at Putin's pace.
11:55However, in Washington, D.C.,
11:59there was a fear that Putin's request for military support in Ukraine would be halted,
12:08and it's a good thing that that didn't happen.
12:12Mr. Kraft, were you worried that Mr. Trump was giving away too much information?
12:18No, I don't think Trump went that far.
12:21You have to look at step one and step two at home.
12:25Step one, there's going to be a lot of arguments,
12:28but this time, as a Trump administration,
12:31we want to get more information out of Putin.
12:34We want to get more information out of Putin.
12:36We want to get more information out of Putin.
12:38We want to get more information out of Putin.
12:40We want to get more information out of Putin.
12:42We want to get more information out of Putin.
12:44We want to get more information out of Putin.
12:46We want to get more information out of Putin.
12:48We want to get more information out of Putin.
12:50We want to get more information out of Putin.
12:52We want to get more information out of Putin.
12:54We want to get more information out of Putin.
12:56We want to get more information out of Putin.
12:58Mr. Hirano, you've been in Ukraine for a long time,
13:01and you've been broadcasting for a long time.
13:03How did you see the U.S.-Russia trade talks?
13:09Well, there's a big part of me that's dissatisfied with Ukraine.
13:14In the first place, Ukraine proposed to the U.S.
13:17in conjunction with Europe.
13:22At the meeting in Jeddah on the 11th,
13:25the U.S. proposed a partial settlement,
13:30but the U.S. said,
13:32no, it has to be a full settlement,
13:34so let's go with a full settlement.
13:36Despite that,
13:38in the phone conversation between Putin and Trump this time,
13:40the U.S. lowered the demand for a full settlement
13:44and agreed to a partial settlement.
13:46I think Ukraine is dissatisfied with that structure.
13:50On the other hand,
13:52the partial settlement itself,
13:54as I've said before,
13:56is something that Ukraine had proposed,
13:58so it's something that can be completely ignored.
14:00So the phone conversation after that,
14:02Zelensky and Trump's phone conversation,
14:04Ukraine intends to have a partial settlement.
14:06From now on,
14:08we're going to talk about technical things.
14:10What's even more important is,
14:12as I mentioned earlier,
14:14Trump didn't take any of the weapons supplies
14:18that Putin proposed.
14:20I think Ukraine highly appreciates that.
14:23I see.
14:25The reason why Putin is so strong
14:29is because he is leading the election.
14:33Let's go back to the election.
14:35Yes, the recent election.
14:37Russia is strengthening its alliance.
14:39Ukraine has been occupying Ukraine
14:42with its nuclear attacks.
14:44In Kursk, Russia,
14:46the largest base, Suja,
14:48has been withdrawn from Ukraine.
14:50Occupying areas are also decreasing.
14:52An attack on energy-related facilities
14:54has been suspended,
14:56but before the suspension is implemented,
14:58Russia attacked a hospital in Smysh,
15:00northeast of Ukraine.
15:02Ukraine also attacked an air base
15:04in Saratov, south of Russia,
15:06and a large-scale explosion
15:08occurred in Danyak.
15:10Mr. Higashiro, regarding this election,
15:12is Putin trying to push back
15:14the Kursk area,
15:16which Ukraine has still occupied?
15:18Is that what he is trying to do?
15:20Yes, exactly.
15:22I think President Putin
15:24even refuses to talk about Kursk
15:26during the negotiations.
15:28Kursk is not a trading resource.
15:30It is Russia's territory.
15:32That's true,
15:34but I think Ukraine
15:37thinks that Kursk
15:39is one of the cards
15:41in the negotiations.
15:43However,
15:45he refuses to talk about Kursk
15:47at all,
15:49so I think he is trying to
15:51completely withdraw
15:53from Kursk
15:55before the negotiations
15:57are made concrete.
15:59On the other hand,
16:01I think that
16:03he is trying to
16:05make things
16:07a little easier
16:09for the Kursk people.
16:11He is not trying to win the election,
16:13but he is trying to
16:15make things a little easier
16:17for the Kursk people.
16:19I think he is trying to
16:21make things a little easier
16:23for the Kursk people.
16:25Mr. Hirano,
16:27what are you paying
16:29attention to
16:31in the elections?
16:33Ukraine is well aware
16:35that Kursk is going to be
16:37taken by Russia,
16:39but Ukraine's army
16:41is in the Belgorod region
16:43which is now
16:45grey.
16:47The reason why
16:49Russia did not
16:51accept Trump's
16:53all-out war
16:55was because
16:57Ukraine's army
16:59was still in Russia.
17:01I think that
17:03Russia is trying
17:05to get rid of
17:07Ukraine's army
17:09from the Belgorod region,
17:11but Ukraine is
17:13paying attention
17:15to whether
17:17that is going
17:19to work.
17:21As Mr. Higashino
17:23said, the elections
17:25in the eastern part
17:27of the country
17:29will determine
17:31whether Ukraine
17:33is going to win.
17:35What is the reason
17:37for the improvement?
17:39I am not sure
17:41about that,
17:43but I am not sure
17:45whether the Russian army
17:47has less troops
17:49or ammunition
17:51or whether
17:53the Kursk people
17:55have less troops
17:57or whether the Russians
17:59will be in the north
18:01for a few days.
18:03I would like to see
18:05in detail
18:07why the election
18:09has changed so much.
18:11After the commercial break,
18:13we will see
18:15how Ukraine responds.
18:17Up until now,
18:19we have heard about
18:21the negotiations
18:23between the US and Russia,
18:25but today,
18:27we will talk about
18:29whether Ukraine is going
18:31to win.
18:33President Trump
18:35held a phone call
18:37with Zelensky
18:39the day after
18:41the phone call between
18:43the US and Russia.
18:45The two spoke
18:47on February 28th.
18:49According to the US,
18:51Zelensky proposed
18:53additional threats
18:55to the missile system
18:57Patriot,
18:59and Trump said
19:01he would consider it.
19:03Regarding the attack
19:05on the energy facility,
19:07Zelensky welcomed
19:09it as the first step
19:11towards a complete end
19:13to the war,
19:15but the nuclear power plant
19:17is the property
19:19of Ukraine.
19:21Zelensky said
19:23he will consider
19:25the safety of the plant.
19:27Ukraine has been
19:29producing nuclear power
19:31since the Soviet Union.
19:33In 1986,
19:35the Chornobyl plant
19:37was shut down,
19:39but there are still
19:4115 plants.
19:43According to the
19:45International Nuclear Organization,
19:47the plant produced
19:49more nuclear power
19:51than the Soviet Union.
20:20We were not surprised.
20:22As I said earlier,
20:24Zelensky proposed
20:26a ceasefire
20:28to the energy facility,
20:30and we accepted it.
20:32Zelensky said
20:34he would consider
20:36it.
20:38Regarding the Zaporizhzhya plant,
20:40when the announcement
20:42was made by the US,
20:44we were surprised
20:46but Zelensky
20:48said it was not
20:50the right thing to do.
20:52So I don't think
20:54it's a hot topic anymore.
20:56The Zaporizhzhya plant
20:58is important.
21:00Russia doesn't use it,
21:02and it's very important
21:04to Ukraine.
21:06At least the US
21:08is trying to do something about it.
21:10I don't think the US
21:12is trying to make money
21:14with it,
21:16but they are trying
21:18to make Ukraine
21:20use it.
21:22I don't know
21:24how they will do it,
21:26but it will be
21:28welcomed by Ukraine.
21:30It's still under
21:32consideration,
21:34but I think
21:36it will get more attention.
21:38Mr. Kraft,
21:40what was the reason
21:42for the Zaporizhzhya plant?
21:44It's the same
21:46as the Gaza issue.
21:48At that time,
21:50the US was in charge
21:52of removing
21:54the rubble.
21:56Suddenly, Trump
21:58said,
22:00let's own it.
22:02This time,
22:04he said,
22:06let's manage it.
22:08The US government
22:10didn't intend
22:12to own the Zaporizhzhya plant.
22:14As you said,
22:16by managing it,
22:18the US will have
22:20some desire for Russia.
22:22Another thing is that
22:24the Trump administration
22:26wants to extract
22:28some information
22:30from Putin.
22:32This is my guess,
22:34but the Zaporizhzhya plant
22:36could be a symbol
22:38of that information.
22:40If they can't extract it,
22:42the Trump administration
22:44or Trump as a tough negotiator
22:46will be in trouble.
22:48This is my guess,
22:50but the Zaporizhzhya plant
22:52could be a symbol
22:54of a stable income.
22:56It's not like
22:58the US is trying to
23:00extract the funds
23:02from Ukraine.
23:04As you said,
23:06in the case of rare earths,
23:08the US is trying to extract
23:10the funds.
23:12But the Zaporizhzhya plant
23:14didn't say that.
23:16At least,
23:18I don't think
23:20the Trump administration
23:22is trying to extract
23:24funds or energy
23:26from the plant.
23:28Mr. Morisawa,
23:30what do you think?
23:32At this point,
23:34I don't know
23:36if the US is trying
23:38to make a positive impact
23:40on the reconstruction
23:42or the reconstruction
23:44of Gaza.
23:46I think
23:48they are trying
23:50to reach the Nobel Peace Prize.
23:52I don't know
23:54whether they are trying
23:56to make a positive impact
23:58on the reconstruction
24:00or not.
24:02I think they are trying
24:04If there is such an idea as to supply electricity to Ukraine,
24:08it may be possible as an interpretation,
24:11but in any case, the details are unknown,
24:14so I think it is difficult to evaluate at this time.
24:17Mr. Higashino.
24:18Yes, I immediately talked about the problem of the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant
24:22with European researchers in an unofficial chat,
24:26but everyone is half joking and half serious.
24:28This is because the ownership of the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant,
24:31the fact that the United States is keeping an eye on it
24:34is transmitted to Russia,
24:36and if it is really managed and owned,
24:40there is a debate that it is also a guarantee of safety.
24:45However, this is a very difficult debate when it comes to the feasibility of implementation.
24:50First of all, I don't think Russia will let go of the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant easily,
24:54and as a principle principle of Russia,
24:58the four eastern and southern regions including the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant
25:01have been forcibly made Russian by the Russian law.
25:04That's right, it's in the most subtle place of this territory.
25:09That's right.
25:10So, rather than asking the United States to take care of the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant,
25:13it is more unrealistic to expect it itself.
25:18However, the fact that we are keeping an eye on it
25:21is one of the desires of Russia,
25:24and it is possible to make Russia's calculations complicated.
25:27So, to a certain extent, this may sound counterintuitive,
25:30but it is true that there is a voice for evaluation.
25:33I see.
25:34From here on,
25:36there will be an exchange session on the 24th.
25:41I would like to think about what kind of development will take place in the future.
25:45First of all, let's sort out the points of discussion.
25:48Yes, we have summarized the points of discussion and the position of each country on the Ukrainian nuclear deal.
25:53First of all, it is a position that neither the U.S. nor the U.S.A. recognize the name of Ukraine.
25:58Second, the U.S. and the U.S. want information on the Ukrainian nuclear deal, which is ruled by Russia.
26:04Third, Russia has refused to send a peacekeeping force led by Europe to monitor the ceasefire.
26:11Fourth, Ukraine has refused to hold a presidential election in Ukraine.
26:16It seems that there is still a big gap between each country.
26:20And we just heard the news.
26:22President Trump said in a press conference in his office on the 21st that
26:26the U.S. will hold a full ceasefire and that the agreement on the division of territory will also be discussed.
26:32The details are not made clear,
26:35but it is seen that Russia is pointing to the nobles of the Crimea Peninsula,
26:40which is one-sided.
26:43Ms. Higashino, what do you think of this news?
26:46The U.S. seems to be surprised that the issue of territory has finally come up.
26:51But I don't think it's necessarily a surprise.
26:54I think the negotiations on the ceasefire have progressed to that stage.
26:59In the U.S.-Ukraine negotiation on March 11,
27:03the U.S. side said that they would not discuss the issue of territory here.
27:08On the other hand, the Ukrainian side said that the territory they are occupying now is illegal.
27:13The U.S. side wanted the U.S. side to take the territory,
27:16but the U.S. side couldn't do that.
27:19So the negotiations on March 11 will focus on the issue of territory.
27:25From the Trump administration's point of view,
27:28the negotiations will progress to that stage.
27:31From the Ukrainian side's point of view,
27:34the point is that this is an illegal occupation.
27:38The U.S. side has to make sure that Ukraine can reclaim its territory
27:43by means of foreign policy.
27:46But I don't think the U.S. side will be on the side of Ukraine
27:51if the U.S. side doesn't make such a clear statement.
27:57Mr. Mori, what do you think will happen in the end?
28:01What will be the focus?
28:03Or will it be a blow?
28:05What do you think?
28:07First of all, there is a term called a ceasefire.
28:11We need to see if this ceasefire is linked to this ceasefire.
28:17According to the U.S. side's statement,
28:20there will be a national assembly after the energy facility ceasefire.
28:25After that, there will be a full-scale ceasefire.
28:28Ultimately, there will be a term called permanent peace.
28:32I think the issue of territory will probably remain until the very end.
28:36I don't know if Russia has the right to claim this territory.
28:41I don't know if it will be legalized or not.
28:45This is a matter between Ukraine and Russia.
28:50This issue may have started negotiations,
28:55but I don't know if it will be linked to the ceasefire.
28:58As long as it is linked, I don't think the ceasefire will be realized.
29:01I think it would be better to look at it as a possibility of creating a separate negotiation track.
29:07I don't know if there will be a final solution to the issue of territory in the next few weeks or months.
29:19Mr. Croft.
29:20As you two just said,
29:22I would like to add something from a different perspective.
29:27It is said that Ukraine does not have a negotiation card.
29:32Actually, I think there is one big card.
29:37It is that Ukraine will not agree to a ceasefire at all.
29:42Even if Ukraine loses in the end, it will be prepared to fight.
29:46In other words, the biggest risk for Trump is that his own peace and prosperity, which is what Trump wants most, will collapse.
29:57So there is a card for Ukraine against the United States.
30:00That's right.
30:01If you don't cut it off well,
30:03if you say it directly to Trump, he will get angry again.
30:05If you don't cut it off well for the United States at the right time,
30:09but what Trump hates the most is this bloodshed.
30:13That's where the red line is, as a Ukrainian.
30:18I think it's a good way to convey this to Trump at some point,
30:23so that Ukraine will not run away from negotiations to some extent.
30:30Mr. Hirano.
30:31I don't think President Zelensky fully understands what we want.
30:36Where do you think the red line is?
30:44The Ukrainian side has repeatedly conveyed the red line to the American side.
30:48As for the territory, we can't take it back now,
30:53but we continue to take the position of occupied Ukraine.
30:57That is to say, we will never acknowledge it as Russian territory.
31:01That's one thing.
31:03As for the military, we will never restrict it.
31:06As for the issues related to the mainstay, we will not allow it to be restricted.
31:12As Mr. Mori said, the Russian side will fight
31:17in a competition aimed at peace negotiations, which is completely different from the current peace talks.
31:23So I don't know what Trump will say about the division of territory soon.
31:29It's not something that can be decided at this stage.
31:33It's a partial settlement now, but it's going to be a sea settlement,
31:37and after that, a lot of things will be done to reach a peace agreement.
31:43I don't think it's time for that yet,
31:45and I don't think it's time for Ukraine to discuss that yet.
31:49As for the competition in Saudi Arabia, this time it's not a political competition,
31:53it's a technical competition.
31:55In order to discuss various conditions for energy settlement,
31:59the Ukrainian side will send a team.
32:03Zelensky announced yesterday that he will not participate in any political discussions.
32:11Mr. Hirano, I would like to comment on the results of this public opinion poll.
32:17First of all, President Zelensky's support rate has come up here.
32:23In particular, after the breakup with Mr. Trump, it has risen.
32:30And then there's another thing.
32:32Which part of the world is being divided?
32:34What is the most agreeable compromise in order to achieve peace?
32:39Originally, there were very few people who thought it was okay to give up some of the blue territory,
32:47but this is gradually rising,
32:49and now 39% of people are starting to compromise on some of the land.
32:57Mr. Hirano, how should we look at this?
33:00As for the territory, there are other public opinion polls as well.
33:04If the question is whether to recognize the territory occupied by Russia as Russian territory,
33:09the opposition suddenly increases.
33:12I see.
33:13As I mentioned earlier, the compromise on the territory is
33:18I think there are a lot of people in that percentage who think it's information in the sense of ending the current war with the occupied territory of Russia.
33:29I don't think it's all of them.
33:31In this question, the nuance is not conveyed,
33:35and it seems that about 40% of people think it's okay to give up all of Russia,
33:41but that's not necessarily the case.
33:43As I mentioned earlier, we have a red line on the territory,
33:48so I don't think Ukraine can really give it to Russia.
33:55And the important thing is that I don't think Trump will necessarily ask for it.
34:01I think it would be nice if Trump could make it look like an agreement has been reached,
34:07and I think there is a possibility that Trump will adopt a solution such as recognizing the occupied territory by giving information to Ukraine.
34:13The only problem is that I don't think Russia will interfere.
34:16What is it that Zelensky's support rate is rising?
34:19That's because of the pressure on Ukraine from the U.S. government around February.
34:27Even those who didn't support Zelensky so much until then,
34:31I think it's because the understanding that supporting Zelensky is connected to supporting Ukraine and protecting Ukraine has spread.
34:39The situation was very similar on February 24, 2022.
34:44Until then, Zelensky's support rate and credibility were very low.
34:48It's too much to say that it was very low, but it was very low.
34:50He was under Russia's full-scale invasion,
34:53and now he has to support Zelensky, who represents the country,
34:57which has increased his credibility very much.
34:59I think there is a similar situation to that.
35:02Yes.
35:03After the commercial break, we will look at what will happen to Ukraine's support for Europe.
35:08We have looked at Russia's and Ukraine's position towards the ceasefire.
35:13Here is the third theme.
35:15The theme is, what about the military dispatch to Europe?
35:19On the 20th, Europe convened a meeting of military officials to the Coalition for the Protection of Ukraine After the Ceasefire.
35:27They started a detailed plan, such as the role of each country.
35:31British Times reported that Britain, France, Turkey, Canada, Australia, etc. are considering a total of 30,000 troops.
35:43The scope of activity is not only on the ground, but also in the air and sea.
35:49However, the role of the Coalition for the Protection of Ukraine After the Ceasefire has not been determined yet.
36:04Mr. Yamakawa.
36:05Ms. Higashino, first of all, how serious will the movement of Europe be?
36:12Well, as Mr. Filani said earlier, there is talk of the unification of Ukraine.
36:18I'm sure President Trump is thinking about the unification of Europe.
36:22There is a sense of crisis that has never been seen before.
36:25As a result, I think that the level of seriousness is a level that has never been seen before.
36:32Even so, if you look at the meeting on the 20th, there are parts that cannot be agreed upon.
36:38For example, Hungary is against it, and Hungary's opposition is always close-up.
36:44This time, France and Italy were opposed to the idea of making a big expenditure.
36:54I don't think it's going to be infinite.
36:59However, if we don't show Trump that Europe is seriously defending Ukraine and that it will lead to the defense of Europe as a whole,
37:10there is a possibility that Trump will not be able to receive support from the President in the future.
37:16This is an important step for Europe to expand American support for Ukraine and American support for Europe.
37:27Let's talk about the amount of support we have received so far.
37:34As you can see, the United States has a lot of support, and as you can see below,
37:39Mr. Trump is clearly saying why Europe is not burdened in the same way as us.
37:45On the other hand, Europe is talking about various supports,
37:53but so far we have not been able to completely agree on them.
37:59Ms. Higashino, as Mr. Trump said, this is a matter of Europe for a while,
38:07and on the other hand, if you look at the amount, the United States is spending more.
38:12I think it makes sense to talk about Mr. Trump, but has Europe changed its mind about that?
38:19Well, I think it depends on which number you look at.
38:24First of all, the graph you are looking at now is a summary of December 31st last year,
38:30but there is also new data, and if you look at the results until the end of February this year,
38:36the difference has shrunk, and from the point of view of the United States,
38:40I think it probably has nothing to do with whether the EU will issue it or an individual country will issue it,
38:44but if you look at the total amount from the EU to other member states in the second graph,
38:51Europe is 60% and the United States is 40%.
38:55However, President Trump has been saying that the United States is spending more.
39:00When I talked to President Macron last time, we had a little discussion,
39:04and we said that we were paying money, not loans, to Ukraine.
39:09President Trump was waving his hand, wondering if it was true,
39:14but as a matter of fact, if the United States is spending 40%, we can say that it is a sufficient amount.
39:20However, I think it is quite difficult to reverse this, to reverse it more and more,
39:26and the problem is how well we make the support package.
39:31I think the point is how well we make it and how persuasive it will be for the United States.
39:38Let's go back to the peacekeeping forces.
39:41Germany is probably going to be the next prime minister, right?
39:44It looks a little more aggressive than before,
39:47but what is the possibility that Germany will join the peacekeeping forces?
39:51I think they are also considering it.
39:54However, if Germany's domestic policy is not overcome to some extent,
39:57it is not known whether it will be realized.
40:00As I mentioned earlier,
40:03Greece and France are showing a completely positive attitude.
40:08In addition, if the peacekeeping negotiations go further,
40:12and if the peacekeeping forces can be deployed,
40:17I think there is a possibility that more countries will join the peacekeeping forces.
40:22At that time, I think there will be a big debate,
40:27but I don't know if it will be true that only Germany will quit.
40:32I think we have to be careful about that.
40:35Mr. Hirano, what do you think about the movement of Europe from the Ukrainian side?
40:41Well, if the European army, that is, the army of countries that are under NATO,
40:48joins Ukraine,
40:51I think Ukraine can say that this war will end in a state where it has just barely won.
41:00In the first place, the idea of dispatching foreign troops to secure security
41:04has been proposed by Ukraine,
41:07and the UK and France are trying to combine it with more countries.
41:14I think it's a big welcome for Ukraine,
41:17and I think it's an understanding that if it doesn't happen,
41:20the next invasion will definitely happen.
41:23What will be important in the future is that
41:26in the London meeting on the 20th,
41:29Sturmer said that if the agreement is not secured,
41:33Putin will definitely re-enter.
41:38So Sturmer was very determined to ensure security.
41:45I think it will be sent,
41:48but the problem is that depending on the size of the shipment,
41:51for example, there are a lot of reports about 30,000 people.
41:54I think there will continue to be questions about whether it will really be a win-win.
41:59As I mentioned earlier, there was talk of sending troops after a ceasefire,
42:04but the actual discussion is that there is a peace agreement and a ceasefire,
42:09but the dispatch is said to be after the peace agreement.
42:12If that's the case, it's still a very difficult discussion
42:17to say that Russia will not send troops unless it clears the agreement with Russia and signs it.
42:22I think that's what's waiting for us.
42:25Mr. Kraut, I don't think that unless there is public support in the United States,
42:30there will be no guarantee of security,
42:35but isn't there a possibility that Mr. Trump will go in a very difficult direction
42:40and turn sideways and do it in Europe?
42:45It's not zero, but the biggest goal for Trump is to win the midterm elections.
42:51If the Nobel Peace Prize is attached to it, it's one stone, two birds,
42:56but I don't think it's easy for the United States to win the midterm elections
43:01in the Middle East peace, Ukraine peace, or a ceasefire.
43:06As for the military deployment and security guarantees in Europe,
43:11the United States is probably at the very end.
43:16I don't think there's a guarantee,
43:21but if there's no support to a certain extent,
43:26it won't be organized, and I think Trump will support it in the end.
43:31This is still a long way off, and there are still bigger problems.
43:36The sense of crisis in Europe is getting stronger,
43:41and we're starting to discuss the idea
43:46that it's going to spread to the allied countries of Europe.
43:51By the way, the situation in Europe is basically the UK and France.
43:56Of course, the scale is different from Russia and the United States.
44:01Mr. Mori, how do you see the crisis in Europe spreading to this extent?
44:06I think that the basic policy of the EU against European policy
44:11is basically that European defense is in the hands of European countries.
44:16In the case of Ukraine, the United States has taken a stance
44:21that basically has nothing to do with security guarantees.
44:26I think there is a possibility that the US presence in Europe
44:31will create a lot of problems for Russia.
44:36In addition, there is a very high sense of crisis
44:41that Russia is likely to act in various ways against NATO countries in the future.
44:46So how do you see that?
44:51I think it was around the middle of February,
44:56that the United States and China started negotiations
45:01about the future of Russia and China.
45:06In the end, the United States, China, and Russia
45:11decided to reduce their national defense spending by half.
45:16I think that's what they're thinking.
45:21Mr. Mori, when you said that France was going to expand its nuclear arsenal,
45:26the reaction from President Putin and the Russian side
45:31was more than I expected.
45:36As you can see from the map,
45:41France and the UK have already expanded their nuclear arsenal all over Europe.
45:46Russia has its own nuclear arsenal.
45:51That's the premise of the change in the current situation.
45:56This position is something that can only be taken by Russia.
46:01I think that the fact that France is going to expand its nuclear arsenal
46:06to Europe and that we have a means to prevent Russia from using it
46:11is something that can only be taken by Russia.
46:16I think that the fact that France is going to expand its nuclear arsenal
46:21to Europe and that we have a means to prevent Russia from using it
46:26is something that can only be taken by Russia.
46:31I think that the fact that France is going to expand its nuclear arsenal
46:36to Europe and that we have a means to prevent Russia from using it
46:41is something that can only be taken by Russia.
46:46I think that the fact that France is going to expand its nuclear arsenal
46:51to Europe and that we have a means to prevent Russia from using it
46:56is something that can only be taken by Russia.
47:02Good evening.
47:05I'm Tsuneo Watanabe from the Sasakawa Peace Foundation.
47:10I'd like to ask President Trump how Japan and the rest of the world
47:15should respond to the Trump administration.
47:19This week, the U.S. and Japan held a meeting on financial policy.
47:24The U.S. and Japan maintained their position and the U.S. market was in a good position.
47:29On the 21st, the New York Dow Jones fell by half.
47:34The Nasdaq fell by half, too.
47:39The Dow Jones fell by half, too.
47:44The Nasdaq fell by half, too.
47:49I asked a market official about the stock price at the end of June.
47:54Mr. Kawai of the E-Smart Inc. is expecting 39,500 yen.
47:59Mr. Yajima of the Nisei Institute is expecting 37,000 yen.
48:04Mr. Yajima of the Nisei Institute is expecting 37,000 yen.
48:09Mr. Yajima of the Nisei Institute is expecting 37,000 yen.
48:14Mr. Kawai of the Nisei Institute is expecting 37,000 yen.
48:20Mr. Trump, Japan and the Trump administration have made a deal.
48:25Mr. Trump, Japan and the administration have made a deal.
48:36The Japanese dollar will continue to rise.
48:41The U.S. dollar will continue to rise.
48:46The timing of the Fed raising the price or the timing of the Fed lowering the price is something I'm personally paying attention to in June.
48:55I see.
48:56Here is the schedule for next week.
48:58As you can see.
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