Ukraine Peace Deal: Trump-Putin Talks And Global Implications| Oneindia
The Ukraine Peace Deal is at the centre of crucial talks between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. With discussions on land, power plants, and asset division, what does this mean for Ukraine’s sovereignty and global stability? Will the Ukraine Peace Deal bring an end to the war, or will new conflicts arise? Stay tuned for the latest updates on this high-stakes geopolitical move. Oneindia's Pankaj Mishra brings you the analysis in 'The Trump Card'.
#UkrainePeaceDeal
#TrumpPutinTalks
#RussiaUkraineWar
#CeasefireNegotiations
#GlobalGeopolitics
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~PR.274~HT.336~
The Ukraine Peace Deal is at the centre of crucial talks between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. With discussions on land, power plants, and asset division, what does this mean for Ukraine’s sovereignty and global stability? Will the Ukraine Peace Deal bring an end to the war, or will new conflicts arise? Stay tuned for the latest updates on this high-stakes geopolitical move. Oneindia's Pankaj Mishra brings you the analysis in 'The Trump Card'.
#UkrainePeaceDeal
#TrumpPutinTalks
#RussiaUkraineWar
#CeasefireNegotiations
#GlobalGeopolitics
Also Read
After Trump's Request, Russia President Putin To Spare The Lives Of Ukrainian Troops In Kursk :: https://www.oneindia.com/international/after-trumps-request-russia-president-putin-to-spare-the-lives-of-ukrainian-troops-in-kursk-4095451.html?ref=DMDesc
Russian Prez Putin Praises PM Modi, Donald Trump For Efforts To End War With Ukraine :: https://www.oneindia.com/international/russian-prez-putin-praises-pm-modi-donald-trump-for-efforts-to-end-war-with-ukraine-4094813.html?ref=DMDesc
Putin Supports US' 30-Day Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire Plan, But Stresses Need For Lasting Peace :: https://www.oneindia.com/international/putin-supports-us-30-day-russia-ukraine-ceasefire-plan-but-stresses-need-for-lasting-peace-4094665.html?ref=DMDesc
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NewsTranscript
00:00They say promises are meant to be broken.
00:08Can US President Donald Trump silence his critiques and actually bring about peace between
00:14Ukraine and Russia?
00:16Hello and welcome to this special show, The Trump Card, with me, Pankaj Mishra.
00:22As the war in Ukraine continues unabated, a significant diplomatic push is underway
00:28to bring about a ceasefire.
00:30The two key players shaping this effort are US President Donald Trump and Russian President
00:35Vladimir Putin.
00:37Trump has been vocal about his capability to broker peace, and his upcoming discussion
00:42with Vladimir Putin is poised to determine the future of Ukraine.
00:47But what does this peace effort actually mean?
00:51Is Ukraine's sovereignty at stake?
00:53And what role do economy and energy interests play in this process?
01:00What is Trump's strategy?
01:01Let's take a look at that.
01:03Diplomacy with concessions, that's what many would say is going to be the ultimate result.
01:09But Trump has proposed a 30-day ceasefire that Ukraine has already accepted.
01:15US President's remarks suggest that negotiations have delved into the division of assets, including
01:23land and power plants, highlighting economic interests, and intertwined with territorial
01:28concessions.
01:29Trump's special envoy, Steve Whitkoff, has described his discussions with Putin as solution-based,
01:37signaling that Russia may be willing to compromise, though the details remain very sketchy.
01:44However, the question still remains, is Trump prepared to pressure Putin into meaningful
01:50concessions for Ukraine?
01:53So far, Russia's stance has been clear.
01:55Ukraine must accept a neutral status, abandon its NATO ambitions, and recognize Russian
02:01control over annexed territories.
02:04If these terms remain unchanged, Trump's deal-making skills will be put to a high-intensity
02:10litmus test.
02:12Now, what is Putin's endgame, the strategies, the compromises that whether he is ready to
02:19make or not?
02:20For Putin, any peace deal must cement Moscow's territorial and security demands.
02:26At least that's what he has promised, or he must have promised, his people, his generals,
02:31and the Russians on the whole.
02:34Kremlin insists on securing ironclad guarantees, including a ban on NATO expansion and limits
02:41on Ukraine's military capabilities.
02:44Russia is also against the deployment of European troops in Ukraine, viewing any foreign
02:50military presence as a direct threat to its hold.
02:54At the same time, Russia's growing energy and mineral interests create another layer
02:59of complexities.
03:00There have been reports that a potential mineral deal between Russia and the United States
03:05is on the table, raising concerns that economic incentives might form the contours of this
03:12ceasefire.
03:14If Trump prioritizes business agreements over peace, Ukraine could find itself sidelined
03:20in the negotiations because what Ukraine was offering to the United States, lo and behold,
03:25Russia already is putting it on the table.
03:28What happens to Ukraine in that scenario?
03:31President Zelensky has already expressed skepticism about Putin's intentions.
03:36His recent military reshuffle suggests that Kiev is preparing for a prolonged struggle,
03:42despite supporting the ceasefire proposal.
03:45Ukraine's acceptance of the deal appears to be more about buying time than fully embracing
03:50the terms of the offer.
03:52If Ukraine is forced to cede territory or limit its military, it could set a precedent
03:58for future conflicts where aggression is rewarded with diplomatic concessions.
04:04The long-term implications for Ukraine's sovereignty remain uncertain.
04:08A US-Russia brokered ceasefire could have far-reaching consequences.
04:19If successful, it would mark a shift in global power dynamics, bringing US and Russia closer,
04:26with Donald Trump positioning himself as the leader who brought an end to this war.
04:31However, if the ceasefire fails or leads to an unfavorable outcome for Ukraine, it could
04:38embolden authoritarian regimes worldwide.
04:41Also, the geopolitical landscape could change depending on how Europe reacts.
04:47France has already stated that Ukraine alone should decide on security matters, rejecting
04:52Russia's claim that NATO or EU troop deployment require Moscow's approval first.
04:59If European nations push back against a US-Russia deal, tensions could escalate rather than
05:04subsiding.
05:06A high-stakes gamble is definitely on the cards.
05:09Trump's proposed talks with Putin represent a high-risk gamble.
05:13If he succeeds using all his Trump cards, it could end one of the most devastating wars
05:19of the decade.
05:20If he fails, Kiev may be left with diminished sovereignty and a precedent that undermines
05:27international law.
05:28The world is watching with bated breath as the two leaders, Trump and Putin, prepare
05:32to negotiate.
05:33But for Ukraine, the stakes are existential.
05:38So there you saw the detailed report on what is going to transpire, what are the factors
05:43that would be governing the all-important discussions and meetings between Vladimir
05:49Putin and Donald Trump.
05:50To discuss the matters further, we are joined by Pramit Palachaudhry, he is an analyst with
05:55the Eurasia Group.
05:56Pramit, thank you so much for taking time out from one India.
06:02Pramit, first things first, how do you assess the global impact of Trump's proposed Ukraine
06:08peace deal?
06:11So the heart of it is that he is planning, I mean, in many ways the war was starting
06:16to wind down, partly because of the exhaustion on the Ukrainian side and the fact that there
06:24was, I would say, not quite a stalemate on the battlefront.
06:28But you could see that it was very difficult for either side to really progress very much
06:32beyond what they, the land or territory that they had already occupied.
06:39But Trump has put that entire process onto a fast track.
06:43He's basically said, look, America will not support Ukraine beyond a certain point.
06:49He's now, and so that immediately, that led to his, you know, resulted in among other
06:53things, his slightly infamous press conference in Zelensky.
06:59The other side of that, however, now is also visible.
07:02Trump's way of diplomacy is simply to dictate terms to both sides and say, look, you guys
07:07will do this, you guys will do that.
07:09And if you don't, I'll put pressure.
07:11Now that process has begun with Vladimir Putin, where he's told Putin, accept a 30-day ceasefire.
07:17Let's get this stopped.
07:18And Putin is slow rolling him.
07:20Putin doesn't necessarily want to accept this.
07:23He's making gains on the battlefront.
07:26And he, unlike Zelensky, is not dependent on American assistance in any way.
07:32And Trump may threaten tariffs and so on, but the fact is Russia's economy has already
07:36been sanctioned so heavily that there really isn't much leverage on the part of the United
07:42States on Russia.
07:44So Trump may be calling for a ceasefire, but Putin, I think, will wait a while longer before
07:51he accepts a ceasefire, largely, I would argue, because of what's happening on the battleground,
07:56on the battlefield, where he's making gains, pushing the Ukraine out of the so-called Kursk
08:01salient, where they made some incursions earlier.
08:07Only after that will we see whether Putin is prepared to even consider the limited ceasefire
08:13of that Zelensky had proposed.
08:16Definitely.
08:17Conditioned supply is something which is very clearly written in all the developments that
08:22are happening there.
08:23Pramit, hypothetically, if we think that fine, this 30-day truce is achieved, do you think,
08:32I was just thinking out loud here, that whether it would give rise to a precedent where a
08:39country like Russia, mainly getting rewarded also on its own terms with Ukraine out of
08:44the NATO ambitions, agreeing to Russia's dominance on the annexed areas?
08:53On one hand, it is rewarding such aggression, and on the other, it is obviously sidelining
09:00Ukraine, giving rise possibly to an authoritarian style of ruling.
09:08Do you think that this is going to be a win-win situation for all of them?
09:14No, I think it's just a realistic assessment of how much further progress they can get
09:21on the battlefield by fighting.
09:24It's not about the morality of the issue.
09:26A simple example, a lot of such partitions, if you wish, are based on exactly this, and
09:33the simplest one we know at home is Kashmir, where you saw Pakistan in 1947 carry out aggression
09:43against India, against the, well, at that point, the princely state of Jammu and Kashmir,
09:50take over almost, actually over one-third of the state.
09:55Indian troops land, push them back, as early as 1950, and we see in the end, while Pakistan
10:03got pushed back, it was able to hold on to one-third of Kashmir, which it had no right
10:08to do so, and what it captured was purely unprovoked aggression.
10:14But India did not have the capacity to push them back further, and the international community
10:19just wanted to get the war over as quickly as possible.
10:22So, you saw, in effect, Pakistan rewarded for its aggression.
10:26It may not have gotten as much as it wanted, but it still got a third of the state, which
10:31it did not deserve.
10:32You could argue, even in the Korean peninsula, North Korea, while it was pushed back, was
10:39never really lost any territory or genuinely punished for attacking South Korea, again,
10:45in an unprovoked aggression.
10:47It was, it was, it got away, if you wish, with an aggression, but it did not gain any
10:52territory, admittedly, but it did not get punished either.
10:57So, this is not uncommon, I would argue, in international relations, and it reflects just
11:02simple, realistic assessment of the status, of the power status on the ground, and that
11:08is exactly what is happening here.
11:10And because Ukraine is dependent on, externally, the EU, the United States, for both finances
11:17and weapons, it has very little choice but to accede to Washington's demands in this
11:25front.
11:25The problem, as I said, is that Russia does not have to accede as much, and so that is
11:31why I expect that the final ceasefire will come into play only when Russia feels that
11:38it is prepared, it has got enough on the ground for it to go to the negotiating table.
11:46Okay.
11:46So, Donald Trump might be thinking, it's my way or the highway, but then there is a Russian
11:50roulette waiting for him, maybe at the next corner or the next meeting.
11:55Final question, Pramit, coming back to the personality, some call him maverick, some
12:00call him pragmatic Donald Trump, in our last conversations, also previous conversations,
12:05we have discussed his personality.
12:08Do you think if the man is able to pull it off and start with a 30-day ceasefire, is
12:16this what he set out to achieve, or is there more to it than what meets the eye?
12:22No, he genuinely, he has a genuine belief that America's external alliances, America's
12:30external military commitments are bleeding the United States dry, and that his so-called
12:36MAGA constituency are tired of spending blood and treasure for distant wars that they barely
12:42understand.
12:45And so, for him, this roughly $150 billion that America has spent in supporting Ukraine,
12:52is just simply for him, his money that's going out the window.
12:54He's not concerned.
12:56You'll notice he doesn't care about long-term strategic concerns.
13:00He finds that a waste of time.
13:01It doesn't cost America money, which is why he said, why he told the Ukrainians, give
13:06me mineral resources in return.
13:08If I can't, if I have to keep supporting you, or you want a military commitment from
13:14a security commitment from the United States that falls short of NATO alliance, then make
13:20sure that it's a non-loss.
13:23He's like a CEO.
13:23He sits down.
13:24Is it profitable?
13:25Is it not profitable?
13:26Is there a loss involved?
13:28If there's a loss involved, then America is not interested.
13:31So, give me the minerals.
13:32The rest of the world may be horrified by this.
13:35The Ukrainians have complained, obviously, but for him, it's like, no, this is a ledger
13:41book, if you wish.
13:42And the ledger book is about pure economic requirements.
13:46It's not about long-term strategic gains for the United States, because Ukraine is not
13:51strategically, in his view, important to the United States at all.
13:56Thank you so much for breaking this whole scenario down.
13:59We await with bated breath what transpires in the next 48 hours, possibly.
14:05The die has been cast.
14:06We'll see how it goes.
14:07Thanks so much.
14:08Pramitpal Chaudhary there, analyst with the Eurasia Group.
14:11Thank you so much for joining us on OneIndia.